Drought busting

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We forecast for Racine, Wisconsin a couple of weeks ago, just as a soaker of a storm was going to roll in. On the 13th and 14th of the month, Racine saw a combined total of 1.9 inches of rain. Weather observers needed only look at the rainfall for those two days as well, as for the 48 hours, the high temperature was 57 and the low was 50, both occurring on the 14th. It stayed between 53 and 57 on the 13th. That’s a good sign that the clouds are smothering you, when the temperatures refuse to budge like that. Clime was the steady hand in southeast Wisconsin, earning the top forecast.
Actuals: October 13th, .76″ of rain, High 57, Low 53
October 14th, 1.14″ of rain, High 57, Low 50

Grade: A-B

Slick forecasting skills

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I couldn’t think of a very good one liner about Bowling, Green or even the Corvette Museum in the city of Bowling Green, not that “good” is usually our qualifier. I just wanted to get to the point: We had a decent enough day forecasting in a couple of sunny days in Bowling Green last Wednesday and Thursday, which allowed for a pretty good baseline for these forecasts. It was Weatherbug, who had at least 12 hours of perfect forecasting over the forecast period, that earned a forecasting victory.
Actuals: October 11th, Hough 70, Low 44
October 12th, High 79, Low 51

Grade: A-C

Hard to beat

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It had been a minute since we had composed a forecast before we put one together for Evansville. I mused that I hoped we remembered how to do it. Our forecast was fine, but it was difficult to improve on the near perfection of The Weather Channel and Accuweather. They had the same forecast, which paid dividends, because aside from the high temperature being 1 degree too cool on Saturday, the forecast was spot on. Granted, accuracy should be at its best with sunny weather forecasts like we saw in southern Indiana, the forecasts were nevertheless commendable.
Actuals: Saturday – High 64, Low 45
Sunday – High 67, Low 40

Grade: A – C

Perfect highs

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Not one but two outlets perfectly nailed the high temperatures on both days of our Lake Havasu City forecast. Clime and The Weather Channel were the two forecasting groups that showed that incredible accuracy, but it was the low temperature forecast that settled this forecast. Clime was better than The Weather Channel, and earned the win.
Actuals: September 14th, High 100, low 72
September 15th, High 102, Low 81

Grade A-C

Heat prologue

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Labor Day weekend was very hot for the middle of the country, but it took a little bit of ramping up. It wasn’t very warm yet when we forecast for Danville. The temperatures were on the rise, though, finishing at 86 on the 2nd, better than the 55 we observed to start the forecast on the 31st. Victoria-Weather took the W for Danville.
Actuals: September 1st, High 82, Low 54
September 2d, High 86, Low 54

Grade: C

A switch flips

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On the 22nd, we put together a forecast for Trenton, where weather was looking fine. It continued as such for most of Wednesday the 23rd as well, but in the afternoon, things went from clear to cloudy in the span of a couple of hours, and then Trenton sat in the sludge for the rest of the forecast period. there was a little bit of rain that came with the overcast, which put Clime off of the victory, and instead handed it to the unlikely duo of Accuweather and Weatherbug.
Actuals: Tuesday August 23rd, High 78, Low 59
Wednesday – August 24th, .15 inches of rain, High 72, Low 66

Grade: B-C

Late night lucidity or blathering nonsense

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I famously am constantly in need of an editor, someone to review my spelling, and in some cases, such as two weeks ago when I put together a forecast for Yuba City, California, to make sure I made any sense. I suggested that diurnal convection might feel “left out” and bring shade to the town, and said that it is “night” that we are seeing clouds instead of smoke on the satellite this summer in California. I even spelled night correctly. I published the forecast after midnight, Victoria-Weather time, which was a big part of the problem, but despite all that, we managed to have the best numbers for Yuba City, tied with The Weather Channel. High pressure in the area provided the clear skies (and left those clouds out) needed to bump temperatures right on up to 106 on the 15th. Maybe I just need to start writing more in the middle of the night?
Actuals: Monday, August 14th, High 100, Low 74
Tuesday, August 15th, High 106, Low 67

Grade: B – C

Super Soaker

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When we put together our forecast for Syracuse a couple weeks back, I noted that I wasn’t buying into severe weather in the Syracuse area for the 7th and 8th. Truly, the severe weather did avoid Syracuse proper, though it was dicey in the Finger Lakes. Any good emergency response personnel will also tell you that flash flooding is severe weather too, and Syracuse got over three inches of rain during the two games of the forecast period, surely enough to cause significant problems around town. The Weather Channel was substantially better than the rest of this forecast, thanks in large part to a warm forecast on the 7th.
Actuals: August 7th, 2.46″ of rain, High 87, Low 66
August 8th, .8″ of rain, High 71, Low 66

Grade: A-C

Persistence in Florida

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One method of forecasting that we have is called “persistence forecasting” which basically using the weather that is seen on one day, and carrying that forward in your forecast. It can work in Florida, especially with what we have see in places like Orlando late in the summer. It’s hot and humid, temperatures generally float at about the same levels, there is usually a stray storm in the area, and you hope to avoid tropical intrigue. That’s how it went for our forecast towards the beginning of the month, though it was a hair cooler than it was when we created the forecast on the 3rd. Accuweather came through with their best performance in a while, and earned victory for the day.
Actuals: August 4th, .27 inches of rain in thunderstorms, High 92, Low 76
August 5th, .03 inches of rain in thunderstorms, High 95, Low 79

Grade: A-C

Overnight issues

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One area that didn’t experience a recent warm up when it was expected to was Louisville, Kentucky. On July 26th, when temperatures were expected to climb to the mid 90s, the highs just stayed where they had been the day before. Some early thunderstorms certainly prevented low temperatures from dropping significantly on that Wednesday morning, and that factor in particular led this forecast to be fairly middling. The Weather Channel had the only accurate precipitation forecast, with the light storm activity coming on the morning of the 26th, and won the day.
Actuals: July 25th – High 91, Low 70
July 26th – Thunderstorms reported, not measured, High 91, Low 78

Grade: C-D