Persistence in Florida

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One method of forecasting that we have is called “persistence forecasting” which basically using the weather that is seen on one day, and carrying that forward in your forecast. It can work in Florida, especially with what we have see in places like Orlando late in the summer. It’s hot and humid, temperatures generally float at about the same levels, there is usually a stray storm in the area, and you hope to avoid tropical intrigue. That’s how it went for our forecast towards the beginning of the month, though it was a hair cooler than it was when we created the forecast on the 3rd. Accuweather came through with their best performance in a while, and earned victory for the day.
Actuals: August 4th, .27 inches of rain in thunderstorms, High 92, Low 76
August 5th, .03 inches of rain in thunderstorms, High 95, Low 79

Grade: A-C

Overnight issues

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One area that didn’t experience a recent warm up when it was expected to was Louisville, Kentucky. On July 26th, when temperatures were expected to climb to the mid 90s, the highs just stayed where they had been the day before. Some early thunderstorms certainly prevented low temperatures from dropping significantly on that Wednesday morning, and that factor in particular led this forecast to be fairly middling. The Weather Channel had the only accurate precipitation forecast, with the light storm activity coming on the morning of the 26th, and won the day.
Actuals: July 25th – High 91, Low 70
July 26th – Thunderstorms reported, not measured, High 91, Low 78

Grade: C-D

Rain arrives before the heatwave

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I think, if anything, the “updates” have made me feel better, keeping in touch wit the weather world and sharing my thoughts on the site, instead of the meandering carcass of Twitter makes this site seem more current and me more engaged. That said, this has been a heck of a month, and the forecast we are verifying today, in Harrisonburg, Virginia, somehow occurred 2 weeks ago. At that time, a feature was attempting to ascend and descend the Appalachians into Harrisonburg, and I can now report, it was successful. Over the course of that weekend, nearly 3/4ths of an inch of rain fell, about as expected. Heavier thunderstorms on Saturday, light rain on Sunday morning, followed by a fairly manageable end to the weekend. Clime missed the thunder on Saturday, somehow, but everyone else hit on that front, and The Weather Channel continued a strong month, and earned the W.
Actuals: Saturday July 15th, .67 inches of rain in a thunderstorm, High 89, Low 63
Sunday – .05 inches of rain, High 85, Low 68

Grade: A – B

An uphill battle

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On June 9th, we put together a forecast for Denver. If you know anything about the city, you know that the airport is well to the east of town in the vast prarieland of the eastern part of the state. It’s otherwise barren country. Further west are the Rockies and the front range. Generally speaking, it’s a little bit cooler in the city than at the airport because of the terrain. A bit of a reverse urban heat island. This is all important background for the realization that downtown Denver, which is where the forecast verified, is different by a few degrees than the airport, which is the best source for model output statistics. So, we forecast, we went uphill and we verified. Clime, what with the algorithms and had the top temperature forecast, but their erroneuous rain forecast on the morning of the 10th meant Victoria-Weather and The Weather Channel claimed a share of the win as well.
Monday July 10th, High 89, Low 60
Tuesday – July 11th, Hgh 92, Low 64

Grade: B-Ci

Odessa roasts

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The headlines have been pretty unequivocal. It’s been hot in the southern US, particularly in the southwest. The average highs in Arizona are generally pretty warm, so the 100 streak doesn’t stand out as being as far from normal as the mid-100s do in west Texas, where in Odessa, at least, the average high is down in the 80s. Indeed, for our forecast period, Odessa was at a scorching 103 and 104 on the 9th and 10th. That is some tough work for any outdoor employees. If there is a silver lining, it was that Victoria-Weather crushed this forecast and earned a victory.
Actuals: Sunday, July 9th, High 103, Low 80
Monday, July 10th, High 104, Low 74

Grade: A-B

4 Minutes!

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Thunderstorms moved into Amarillo after the 4th of July as the dry line finally shifted east and away from West Texas. on the 5th and 6th, as a system moving through the northern US dragged it into oblivion. As it usually does, it set off some nocturnal convection, which nearly everyone had in the forecast. I don’t feel bad for the outlets that left thunder out of the forecast for the 6th, as there were a solid 5 or 6 hours of stormy weather. Everyone who kept it dry on the 5th though, you were right, up until the 1156PM observation, when scattered storms were reported at KAMA. That’s tough. The Weather Service and WeatherNation had storms on both days of the forecast period, and WeatherNation narrowly edged the Weather Service to earn an Amarillo A+
Actuals: Wednesday, July 5th, Storms reported late, no accumulation, High 91, Low 69
Thursday, July 6th, .04″ of rain in thunderstorms, High 87, Low 63

Grade: A-C

Hazy days

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We are getting ready for a heat wave in the southern US, we can reflect on last month, when things were just downright smoky. All manner of the US experienced the smoky weather, from the Northern Plains all the way to the East Coast. We put together a forecast for Kalamazoo towards the end of the month, and indeed, it got smoky there as well. It was so smoky, and in conjunction with an inactive cold front that passed through, temperatures were only in the low 70s on Tuesday the 27th, but rebounded uncomfortably th Wednesday after. Weathernation collected their first solo victory of the year thanks to a solid forecast.
Actuals: Tuesday, June 27th, High 73, Low 59
Wednesday, June 28th, High 82, Low 53

Grade: A-C

Memories of Florida

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We are all a bit older, a bit wiser than when we put together our forecast last month for Fort Myers. A lingering boundary lay on the southern end of the Sunshine State, but for the most part, precipitation was staying on the Atlantic side of the Peninsula. Fort Myers is on the Gulf Coast side of Florida. I noticed this and kept rain out of the forecast, and everyone else left it in. Weatherbug had a solid enough forecast that they earned victory based on their temperatures alone, but Victora-Weather was the only one with the proper precip forecast.
Actuals: June 10th, High 90, Low 77
June 11th, High 90, Low 76

Grade: B-C

Omega in charge

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This month has been quite rainy for the southern US, but for a strip from the north central to the mid-Atlantic, it has been quite dry for a couple of weeks. It all started with an omega block, which we identified with our forecast in Allentown. Allentown remained dry, despite some storms in the area on the 6th of June, and it was quickly followed by the apocalyptic smoke that descended on the region. A little rain on any number of tracts of land between northern Canada and Allentown would have been great, but it was not to be. Victoria-Weather’s forecast sparkled, and the victory was ours.
Actuals: June 5th, High 77, Low 48
June 6th, High 79, Low 52

Grade B-C

One for the brochure

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Residents of Prescott likely live in town for one big reason. Days like those they saw at the beginning of Memorial Day weekend. Temperatures were in the mid 70s for highs with bright sunshine and cool lows overnight. Not the scorching heat to the south, no humidity and just some fantastic days to spend outdoors, really participating in any activity one might want to do. The Weather Channel and Clime were able to tie atop the leaderboard. Perhaps the forecasters can be rewarded with a trip to Prescott.
Actuals: Friday, High 75, Low 51
Saturday, High 75, Low 45

Grade: B-C