Dropping Off

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Things sure can change in a week. We looked at Springfield, Massachusetts about this time last week, and it was ensconced in high pressure. This led to a pretty quiet forecast with a broad range of temperatures. Today, weather has rolled in, and many parts of New England and the Mid-Atlantic are seeing significant snowfall, and in some placed, seeing it for the first time in a while. The biggest hang up in the forecast was that dynamic change in temperatures, especially at night. Clouds never really played a factor, and the morning low on both Wednesday and Thursday fell below expectations. Clime had a good day, however, and was rewarded with the top forecast for the day.
Actuals: Wednesday – High 44, Low 19
Thursday – High 50, Low 22

Grade: C-D

The atmospheric stream

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The “atmospheric river’ terminology is one that has really captured the imagination of the media, and we are hearing it quite a bit right now as rainfall is inundating southern California. The atmospheric river is simply a strong active jet stream, and when it comes from the sea, there is more moisture available, and “more moisture” isn’t something we think of when talking about southern California. In fact, last month when we were forecasting for San Luis Obispo, I thought the few showers showing up in the area were remarkable enough to call them out ostentatiously. The rain seen now in the LA Basin is several orders of magnitude larger than that, so if this is the atmospheric river, then what we saw in late January was a mere stream. A trickle. For the day, WeatherNation had the forecast victory, being the best temperature forecaster among outlets that left rain in the forecast on the 25th.
Actuals: January 25th, .01 inches of rain, High 66, Low 51
January 26th, High 75, Low 48

Grade: B-C

Uncharacteristically chilly

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I know there is a “North” in the name, but you don’t usually think of sub-freezing temperatures in Charlotte, North Carolina. That’s exactly what they saw on January 19th and 20th, though. Most of the 20th, in fact, was below freezing, with highs remaining in the mid-30s. It’s been an active month, and post frontal cooldowns are becoming many in the southeast are getting used to enduring. The Weather Channel and Accuweather tied for the top forecast, missing out, as everyone did, on the end of the rain associated with that cold front sweeping through. No rain on the 19th.
Actuals: January 19th, High 52, Low 29
January 20th, High 33, Low 20

Grade: B-C

Everything is bigger in Texas

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Even, unfortunately, the mistakes are bigger in Texas. Temperature behind last week’s system did not react quite how anyone had anticipated in Dallas. Every outlet thought it would be as cool as freezing, or nearly there on the 18th, last Thursday, and it only dipped as low as 40. This warmer base meant that the high on Friday was also significantly warmer than expected as well, with the midnight high coming in at 45, when nobody expected anything better than the mid-30s. It wasn’t a good forecast, for sure, but The Weather Channel ultimately came away with the top score.
Actuals: Thursday – High 58, Low 40
Friday – High 45, Low 26

Grade: C

Gales of the Great Lakes

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While the rest of the country was able to dry out after a system moved through the middle of the country about this time last week, Lansing was left in a lurch. After the warm start to the season, Lake Michigan still has open water, and deep cold pool with west winds whipping across the Lake settled in. The fetch wasn’t deep enough to substantively affect Lansing, but overcast and cold temperatures still enveloped the capital city. There were flurries at times both days, which ultimately awarded the top forecast to the Weather Service and WeatherNation.
Actuals: January 15th, .01 inches of moisture in snow, High 11, Low -4
January 16th, .01 inches of moisture in snow, High 9, Low 2

Grade: B-C

Post Frontal Florence

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During last week’s version of the interminable series of storm systems this month, we visited Florence after a line of thunderstorms had brought severe weather to the city earlier in the day. There was a little bit of light rain that trailed the line that arrived a little bit after midnight that altered the verification a bit, but aside from that, post frontal forecasting is pretty easy. Victoria-Weather earned our first forecast W of the year, up against strong competition.
Actuals: Wednesday January 10th, .03 inches of rain High 52, Low 37
Thursday, January 11th, High 57, Low 33

Grade B-C

The Wasatch, the Gulf of Alaska and the Great Basin

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Sometimes, we all need a little bit of reality to bring us back to earth. After a strong forecast to start the year in New York, it didn’t go quite that well in Logan. The various topographies of the northwestern US and the proclivity for cyclonic development in the Gulf of Alaska made for a rough day of forecasting. The primary cause of the misguided forecast were the low temperatures that arose on Monday the 8th. Well, that and how warm it got on Tuesday. Oh, and for many, the snow that lasted into Monday morning when many thought there would be a longer break. I guess there were a few issues. On a more positive note, there was a tie at the top between The Weather Channel, Accuweather and the National Weather Service.
Actuals: Monday, January 8th -.03″ of precipitation in snow, High 25, Low 2
Tuesday – .04″ of precipitation in snow, High 36, Low 11

Grade: D

Wintry mix, but light on the winter

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New York is obviously the center of the universe, so it was nice that round one of our winter weather week was more problematic for points outside of the Big Apple. Close, but not in the city itself, especially during out forecast. There was a wintry mix in the afternoon on Saturday, but the winter portion of the mix only lasted for a couple of hours in Manhattan. Several inches, fell north of town, and more than a foot came to some of the mountains of Pennsylvania. It was a strong start to the year for the Weather Channel, who netted the forecast victory.
Actuals: Friday – High 41, Low 28
Saturday – Rain and snow, not measured, High 39, Low 32

Grade: A-C

Exhibition Verification

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Only rarely are we able to post a forecast with no bearing on our annual and monthly verification competitions, so when I posted the forecast for Kansas City just a couple of days before the new year, I wanted to do something a little differently. I openly posted the forecast for Kansas City International Airport, while the other outlets had forecasts for the city of Kansas City, Missouri, which is verified downtown. As expected, it was cooler out away from the city, at the airport. The 6 outlets that forecast for downtown were almost all exactly the same in their verification, while my forecast at the airport was a hair removed from the downtown forecasters. Temperature forcing aside, it was still high pressure, and not much existed to sway anyone in any particular direction.
Actuals: (Downtown) Sunday – High 36, Low 30
Monday – High 39, Low 27

Actuals (Airport) Sunday – High 33, Low 28
Monday – High 36, Low 22

Grade: B

Coming together

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For the last verification of 2023, all of our forecasters consolidated around the same scores for Macon. There were no trends, to speak of, really. Aside from the Thursday high, every forecast verification had some values warmer and lower than what it turned out to be. That Thursday high was a bit warmer than anyone had projected, but not by much. So with everyone appropriately circling the mark, it just came down to who was the closest the most, and there wasn’t a lot to separate the top from the bottom. Accuweather will get credit for the top forecast for the day.
Actuals: Thursday – High 62, Low 43
Friday – High 50, Low 35

Grade: A-B