Category Archives: Verification

A boundary deep in the heart of Texas

During the forecast for San Antonio, we took a hard look at the system currently raging through the Tennessee Valley, bringing showers and thunderstorms to that part of the world. Would it dig south enough to bring any discernible change to the weather down that way? Well, yes. The boundary did bring more cloud. It brought a taste of rain. And the temperatures were a shade cooler on Monday than they were on Sunday. All of this played right into my hands. Victoria-Weather anticipated a bit cooler pattern, staying in the mid to 80s for highs, rather than going for the gusto like other outlets.
Actuals: Sunday – High 86, Low 62
Monday – Trace of rain, High 82, Low 67

Grade: C-D

A rainy preamble

There were a pair of shortwaves poised to move through the middle of the country as the weekend ended and the work week began. The initial round promised some isolated severe weather in the central US, while the secondary cold front looked more menacing. That was certainly the case in Owensboro, which saw severe storms in the area today, but before it got there, there was simply a few splashes of rain. This worked out well, because this is how the forecast chips fell. The Weather Channel and WeatherNation had perfect forecasts on Saturday, and that carried them to a victory for the day, despite having slightly different numbers on Sunday.
Actuals: Saturday . 02 inches of rain, High 73, Low 61
Sunday – .17 inches of rain, High 68, Low 51

Grade: B-C

Storms keep east, but dry air rolls in

San Angelo saw the passage of a dry line in the wee hours of Friday morning. It was mostly dry, through there was a trace of pre-dawn rain. The big story was the dry air that trailed this line of storms that got much more active as the boundary reached I-35. That dry air allowed temperatures to cool off even further on Friday than most outlets had, except for one…. Victoria-Weather. We were the best outlet by far, with the rest clumped behind us.
Actuals: Thursday – High 82, Low 62
Friday – Trace of rain, High 80, Low 54

Grade: A-C

Cold front? What cold front?

A cold front went through and a big of high pressure built in from the north, but none of that mattered to the atmosphere in Augusta, Georgia. Temperatures still managed to spike well above forecast highs both Thursday and Friday this week. It was almost 70 on Thursday and all the way up to 80 on Friday. Only Forecast.io was bold enough to toy with temperatures that warm, and ultimately had the best forecast as a result.
Actuals: Thursday – High 69, Low 47
Friday – High 80, Low 45

Grade: B-D

Problems come out at night

If you considered only the daylight hours, the forecast for Merced was pretty good. Everyone who, at the time, had a functional website, did pretty well with their forecast highs. There were a few exceptions, but it was mostly ok. But then, there were the overnight lows. Thats when most of the error came. The worst was the Wednesday morning low, which nobody did better than 4 degrees of error. the top forecast came to Weatherbug, who rose to the top with a perfect Thursday high.
Actuals: Wednesday – Rain reported, not measured, High 61, Low 43
Thursday – High 64, Low 40

Grade: B-C

Weather Wayback… Flint fares just fine

Way back in January, we were worried about the persistent threat for rain and snow that comes with seemingly every wave that moves through the Great Lakes. There was the threat for some drizzle in Flint on the 18th and 19th, but rain is a lot less likely because of lake effect than snow is. Temperatures were above freezing, so snow didn’t happen, and at least during the forecast period, nor did it rain. Accuweather and Weatherbug won the forecast thanks to a nearly precise temperature forecast, but WeatherNation gets kudos for being the only outlet to leave precipitation out of the forecast.
Actuals: Wednesday, January 18th, High 38, Low 35
Thursday, January 19th – High 42, Low 30

Grade: B-C

Weather Wayback… A happier time

The second weekend of the year in eastern Washington may have seemed like a rough weekend, as temperatures were not anticipated to climb out of the lower 20s. In fact, those temperatures couldn’t even clear the mid teens in Yakima, where we issued a forecast on January 14th. Unanticipated was an overcast that brought some light snow all the way down to the Yakima Valley both Saturday the 14th and Sunday the 15th. The forecasts were calamitous, all across the board, with The Weather Channel narrowly winning the day on a particularly awful forecast. Now, this past week, however, the warm weather has led to rapid snowmelt, accompanied with heavy rain earlier this week has led to some significant flooding in the city of Yakima. Fortunately waters are receding quickly, and after this post, we won’t have to worry about the other disaster – the forecast from January 14th.
Actuals: Saturday, January 15th, snow reported and not measured, High 15, Low 1
Sunday, January 16th – Snow reported and not measured, High 16, Low 12

Grade F

Shenanigans!

Just before midnight on Sunday night in Longview, Texas, there was a report of light rain. It was at the regular observing time from an automatic station. Skies were clear. Skies were clear everywhere around Longview. I looked at the radar. Nothing. All signs point to this being an erroneous observation by a robot hopped up on too much late night petroleum (or whatever robots drink). The problem is that a couple of outlets DID forecast rain, and you can’t always just dismiss these random reports. The only fair thing, in my mind, was to let it go, and not worry about precipitation for this particular forecast, and let it boil down to temperature analysis. In that regard, Accuweather (who DID have rain in the forecast) earned the top spot, while Victoria-Weather (who did NOT) followed in close pursuit.
Actuals – Sunday – Precipitation – ???, High 85, Low 57
Monday – High 87, Low 63

Grade: C

A good day all around in Wichita

The weather of the past two days in Wichita was magnificent, with temperatures climbing up into the upper 70s, warmer even than the most optimistic forecasting outlets. Significantly warmer, actually. Additionally, the Wichita State Shockers, a 10 seed, ended up defeating the Dayton Flyers in the first round of the NCAA Tournament. Not bad at all. On top of that, everyone could go outside for their St. Patrick’s Day parade! The Weather Channel enjoyed the top forecast of the day.
Actuals: Thursday – High 76, Low 38
Friday – High 78, Low 50

Grade: B-D

Winning weather

I think the weather this past weekend in Fresno could be labelled as perfect by most opinion havers. The only issue is that there was no rain in an area that is still in drought. Of course, there has been SOME rain this winter, and who wants to make up their rain deficits in one continuous shot? The sunny Fresno weather led to some very good forecasts across the board, with Accuweater able to claim a victory slightly better than the competition.
Actuals: Saturday – High 75, Low 49
Sunday – High 76, Low 51

Grade: A-C