Category Archives: Verification

Out of sorts

It’s a weird thing, when  high pressure moves in, but it brings about clouds and colder temperatures, but alas, that’s what happened early this week in Corpus Christi. Northeasterly winds riding the ridge diving into the area met the warmer Gulf waters, and a sheath of low overcast and Canadian air made Corpus Christi significantly cooler on Monday. The forecasts were all in the same range, with little separation from first to last, but it was  The Weather Channel who had the clear victory.
Actuals: Sunday, High 62, Low 45
Monday – High 53, Low 47

Grade: B

Mystery Mornings

It seems to be kind of hard to pin down what happened in Columbus, IN over the last couple of days. The nearby reporting station only reports between 6am and 10pm, missing the main period where freezing drizzle was forecast to happen, though some light snow reports were seen.

Wednesday: Light snow reported. High 33, Low 30.
Thursday: Rain reported. High 37, Low 32.
Forecast Grade: B-C

Weather Wayback… It always rains in Southen Califonia

We have spent some time discussing the rain that has swept into the west coast, the benefit to the drought stricken and the expectation that it is going to continue. There was a bout of rain for the NFL playoff game between the Rams and Cowboys in Los Angeles on Saturday. Well, this isn’t the first time it’s rained in southern California in January. In fact, a bout of shower activity afflicted San Luis Obispo in late January when we looked at their forecast last. It seemed so unusual for forecasters that even though the precipitation was included, the forecast accuracy was otherwise unimpressive. Accuweather did enough to be considered the champion last January, but I think we are all just too stunned by the smattering of rain they saw.
Actuals: January 24th, High 69, Low 36
January 25th, .01 inches of rain, High 61, Low 46

in late January when we looked at their forecast last. It seemed so unusual for forecasters that even though the precipitation was included, the forecast accuracy was otherwise unimpressive. Accuweather did enough to be considered the champion last January, but I think we are all just too stunned by the smattering of rain they saw.
Actuals: January 24th, High 69, Low 36
January 25th, .01 inches of rain, High 61, Low 46

Grade: C-D

Wet and Wintry

The third forecast of the year was the first that was inclement. Scranton was expecting yet another round of wet weather as a big complicated area of low pressure tried to spin from the Great Lakes through the Mid Atlantic and New England. A redeveloped slug of moisture made for a wet day on Tuesday, but cold air brought a few flurries on Wednesday. There were a few precipitation issues from some outlets, but it ultimately came down to temperatures, where the National Weather Service handled the turbulent conditions best.
Actuals: Tuesday – .24″ of rain, High 41, Low 29
Wednesday – Snow reported, not measured, High 39, Low 27

Grade: B-D

Humbled

The forecasts were so good to start the year in Lima, but it was not to be the case in Pueblo. I think we were all riding high after the forecast for Ohio, and looking at a couple of days of high pressure, it seemed like we could coast through the forecast. We were informed pretty early that this would not be the cast. The morning low on Monday was 36, no less than 5 degrees warmer than anyone had in the forecast. Compounding matters was the fact that, upon clearing, temperatures plummeted to 18, at least 4 degrees colder than what anyone had envisioned. The high temperatures were fine though! Accuweather snuck ever so slightly above the carnage and got their first win of 2019.
Actuals: Monday – High 58, Low 36
Tuesday – High 47, Low 18

Grade: C-D

Starting 2019 strong

The first forecast of the year was for Lima, Ohio, which was getting winged by a strong spring like system that was sliding from the Lower Mississippi Valley towards New England. Lima ducked any wet weather, all while hitting temperatures that were nearly perfectly forecast by Victoria-Weather. In fact, they were perfectly forecast on Saturday. It was a solid start to the new year.
Actuals: Saturday, High 48, Low 30
Sunday – High 43, Low 33

Grade: A-C

Starting in San Diego

The first verification of the new year is actually for the last forecast of the old year. Thanks to a cranky baby, I worked on the forecast in the very wee hours of New Year’s Eve, but fortunately, the forecast was for San Diego which is, under most circumstances, a softball forecast. Indeed, that was the case for the first couple of days this year (though things are surely a bit more challenging for forecasters tonight), and the Weather Service and Weatherbug snatched top notch forecasts for the chilly but dry couple of days in the town that calls itself America’s Finest City. 
Actuals: Tuesday, High 61, Low 45
Wednesday – High 62, Low 41

Grade A – C

Autumn’s last gasp

Normally I would say something like “it sure is hard to forecast in the high plains” but not this time. There was only one really bad temperature verifying time for everyone during last week’s forecast in Rapid City, that being the low forecast on Wednesday morning. The forecast took a turn for the better when precipitation never fell on western South Dakota, and the lack of shower activity allowed The Weather Channel to nose ahead of the rest of the competition. 
Actuals: December 18th, High 55, Low 26
December 19th, High 49, Low 39

Grade: B-C

A pre-Christmas dry streak

Temperatures were fairly warm in Lynchburg on December 17th, nearly hitting 60 degrees in the wake of an area of los pressure that brought copious rains to the region in the previous weekend. It was a pleasant surprise ahead of the Holidays, but temperatures were scheduled to drop the day. It was still dry, however, a nice change from the weekend (and the one before that) and its tough to be upset about 50s in December. Accuweather had the top forecast.
Actuals: Monday, December 17th, High 59, Low 35
Tuesday, December 18th, High 51, Low 28

Grade: B-C

Tip of the iceberg

December has seen a litany of strong storms moving from Texas or the Gulf into the Great Lakes and New England. They have been fairly warm in nature, and there haven’t been as many bruising snow storms as we’ve seen in recent years (though there is certainly plenty of time left in the season for that to change, and western North Carolina in particular might disagree). Back in the middle of the month, one of the first rounds of warm winter storm weather emerged from Texas and blasted the eastern US, and it was particularly rainy as far north as north central Indiana. On the 14th and 15th of the month, Kokomo saw rain as a massive subtropical cyclone welled up and took on the Great Lakes and New England. The forecast actually went quite well, with Accuweather heading off all other forecasters, as we prepared for what would be a busy holiday weather season.
Actuals: December 14th, .1 inches of rain, High 42, Low 26
December 15th, .05 inches of rain, High 45. Low 39

Grade: A-C