Category Archives: Verification

Mellow in SoCal

Our forecast for Riverside called for more hot air, despite the fact that we are reaching the end of October. Temperatures were warm, but only managed to hit the mid 80s, which was a hair cooler than the forecast suggested, but that is a move in the right direction for a spot that has just been too warm lately. At long last, Victoria-Weather finally came through with another forecast win.
Actuals: Wednesday – High 84, Low 55
Thursday – High 86, Low 55

Grade: A-D

The Odessa Odyssey

Never underestimate a clear sky in west Texas. It was fairly clear in Odessa on Monday, as the streams of light rain showers steered clear of our forecast site as the work week began, and temperatures were well above the consensus forecasts.. Sunday was a little bit more solemn, with some spits of rain here and there that not many outlets were entirely prepared for. Accuweather had the only perfect forecast in terms of precipitation, but hey were outdone by the National Weather Service and their shadows at WeatherNation, who knew to expect a temperature spike with the sun shining on Odessa.
Actuals: Sunday – Rain reported, not measured, High 64, Low 48
Monday – High 70, Low 46

Grade: B-D

Better luck next time

Boy, it’s a good thing we have another forecast for St. Cloud coming up soon. I think that, to a person, we are looking forward to having another crack at this forecast. Temperatures were both to hot and too cold for our outlets. Temperatures on Friday, the 19th were able to clamber all the way up to 63, which was a handful of degrees warmer than anyone thought. Then under clear skies the temperatures kept dropping on Saturday evening, falling all the way to 23 degrees, which was 8-12 degrees cooler than folks expected then as well. Forecast.io decided against precipitation and as a result had a narrow victory.
Actuals: Friday – High 63, Low 45
Saturday – High 46, Low 23

Grade C-D

The rain in Maine

Low pressure kept streaking across New England this week, but the most recent rounds merely grazed Portland. Not much ultimately reached the ground on Tuesday or Wednesday, the first at the tail end of activity from a cold front, and Wednesday’s bout affiliated with wrap around flow, with only a hundredth measured on either day of the forecast period. We were the only outlet with rain in the forecast both days, and were near the top of the temperature forecast, collecting the top forecast.
Actuals: Tuesday – .01 inches of rain, High 57, Low 42
Wednesday – .01 inches of rain, High 58, Low 39

Grade: B-D

On the toasty side

Our forecasters were in for a surprise in New Hampshire. During our forecast for Manchester, ceilings were low, showers were everywhere and the town was destined to remain in the 60s last Monday. Then, the sun came out, and Tuesday spiked all the way to 80 degrees. Wednesday was even warmer, and forecasters were left hat in hand (mostly because it was too warm to wear it), trying to figure out just how it could be that toasty in October. The Weather Channel, as they have been lately, were the closest to the mark, gaining forecast victory
Actuals: Tuesday – High 80, Low 52
Wednesday – High 84, Low 65

Grade: A-C

Before Michael

Hurricane Michael has made landfall near Mexico Beach, Florida, between Apalachicola and Panama City Beach. It’s a big storm, that’s fast moving, which will limit the flooding, but exasperates the wind and surge in the region. The storm is going to bring trouble well inland, even as far northeast as the Carolinas, but not even as far west as Pensacola or Mobile. 
At the beginning of the month, we had a forecast for another Gulf Coast state, as we visited Pascagoula in southern Mississippi. There had been a stationary front along the Gulf coast that threatened to bring isolated showers and storms to the region, and most outlets suspected that threat of rain would limit temperatures. I bought into the trends, and Victoria-Weather joined Accuweather atop the leaderboard for the forecast in Pascagoula.
Actuals: Monday (10-1) – .01 inches of rain, high 90, Low 72
Tuesday – High 91, Low 73

Grade: B-C

Fuzzy Forecast

There was a big broad trough across the northern part of the US as September rolled into October. The trough brought cloud, cold temperatures and a lot of uncertainty, particularly in the Eastern Great Lakes. There wasn’t much rain with the feature, so it was tough to really put it in the forecast, and as a result, everyone who did put rain in the forecast for Utica had it on the wrong day. There was a only a trace of rain on Sunday the 30th, when it seemed like rain would be more likely on Saturday morning when the surface activity was more intense. Victoria Weather was more optimistic about the rain threat, and we had a top forecast for this amorphous blob of weather. 
Actuals: Saturday the 29th – High 63, Low 44
Sunday – Rain reported, not measured, High 61, Low 39

Grade: C-D

Stormy In Massachusetts

As expected, afternoon rain and thunderstorms moved into the Pittsfield area associated with a cold front. Some light rains lingered after midnight, but cleared out by morning and temperatures warmed into the 60s. Overcast skies and the midday rains kept the temperatures down for Tuesday, which was the bulk of the error in temperatures during this forecast. Weatherbug narrowly edged out V-W for the win by a single point.

Tuesday: Rain in afternoon hours. High 59, Low 53.
Wednesday: Early morning rain shower. High 64, Low 51.
Forecast Grade: B-

Blacksburg turns it around

The beginning of the week was quite cool, as a slow moving boundary moved towards Blacksburg a week after the arrival of Florence. Temperatures were unable to get out of the low 60s thanks to the overcast that buried the region. Despite all those clouds, there was only a splash of rain, which was great, given how little the area actually needs. Forecast.io was the only outlet not to have rain on both days, and they did indeed stay dry on Monday, just like those robots said they would. As a result, Forecast.io was the winner.
Actuals: Sunday – .06 inches of rain, High 63, Low 59
Monday – High 62, Low 52

Grade: B-C

Not-umn

It’s been pleasantly cool across the northern portion for the country, at least for the last few days, so it’s a bit unusual to look at a forecast for a place like Joplin from the beginning of last week and see temperatures still pinging the low 90s. Victoria-Weather stayed close to the NAM, which had a warmer solution, and that paid off, giving us a narrow victory, in a sweaty SW Missouri. :
Actuals: Monday-  High 91, low 64
Tuesday – High 93, low 69

Grade: B