Category Archives: Verification

A Game of Miles

It looked like St. Cloud would get a couple isolated showers early Thursday morning before they scattered out, but not only did they manage to dodge the rain showers, the clouds cleared out a couple hours before dawn, causing temperatures to drop a few degrees more than expected. That messed with the forecasts a bit and caused the temperature errors to be larger than expected. TWC nabbed the top spot by a single degree.

Thursday: High 72, Low 50.
Friday: 0.30″ of rain. High 69, Low 55.
Forecast Grade: B

Beautiful Weekend, Beautiful Forecasts

The weekend forecast for Bakersfield was pretty easy, hot and dry. Everybody seemed to handle it pretty well, with everybody within 2 degrees of the actual for each forecast period. Everybody except for Darksky. Their forecast was a good 2-4 degrees cooler than everybody else, which didn’t pan out. Yours truly here at VW tied with the NWS for the win, with a minuscule error of just 3 total degrees!

Saturday: High 101, Low 76.
Sunday: High 98, Low 74.
Forecast Grade: A

Weather Wayback…. the slow start to summer

The past few weeks have been unusually cool for all areas east of the Rockies, giving the end of summer an easy transition to autumn. Back in April, spring was late arriving in the Great Lakes as well. Ann Arbor, Michigan saw a system move through the region on the final weekend of April, bringing not only a half an inch of rain with steady showers and isolated thunderstorms, but also high temperatures in the mid 50s both Saturday and Sunday. That’s not a great weekend, but at least April wasn’t technically summer yet, but it was one of those first weekends in which expectations were high, and plans were ruined. Weathernation was the top forecaster in a collection of very similar forecasts.
Actuals: Saturday, April 29th -Rain reported, not measured, High 55, Low 46
Sudnay, April 30th – .58 inches of rain, High 55, Low 39

Grade: C

New England, just like the old England

Manchester, England, much like the rest of the country, has a reputation of fog and drizzle interrupting even the nicest times of year. Manchester, New Hampshire followed suit, mimicking its namesake at the beginning of last week. There was a bit of drizzle on Tuesday, with fog both Tuesday and Wednesday, giving the region an English air. In the afternoon Wednesday, however, the temperature climbed into the 80s, reminding us that this was summer in America, not in the UK. There was a 4 way tie atop the leaderboard, between The Weather Channel, Accuweather, Weatherbug and WeatherNation, and the other three outlets were within 2 degrees of the winners.
Actuals: Tuesday – .06 inches of rain, Hgh 76, Low 64
Wednesday – High 83, Low 62

Grade: C

Warm air returns

A good deal of the month of August has been unseasonably cool for the Midwest and Great Lakes. We visited Cincinnati at just the right time, as a warm front was on the verge of lifting north and returning southern Ohio to a more appropriate pattern. As the warm front lifted north, it was a bit more capable than expected, drawing in moisture from the Gulf of Mexico further south than had been demarcated in the forecast, as Tropical Storm Gert moved away from the subtropical low’s influence. Every outlet thought that rain would avoid the Queen City, and everyone was wrong, leaving it to the temperature forecast. There was a three way tie atop the leaderboard, as Victoria-Weather, Accuweather and Forecast.io all tied for the victory.
Actuals: Monday – Trace of rain, High 81, Low 68
Tuesday – High 87, Low 66

Grade: C-D

At least it’s cool at night

Make no doubt about it, Washington has been very hot recently, and that will continue at least for a couple of days this week. The high temperatures in Yakima (and elsewhere) have been very high, but there is some good news, again, at least in Yakima. Temperatures cooled off to near 60 both Friday and Saturday morning, which means, despite sweltering temperatures during the day, it seems likely the population of Yakima was well rested. The National Weather Service and WeatherNation joined to put together the best forecast for the day.
Actuals: Friday – High 103, Low 59
Saturday – High 98, Low 62

Grade: B-D

Baked Potatoes

Late last week, we took a hard look at Boise, where rain had cleared out, and hot dry air was on its way into the Sun Valley. We all knew the hoot air was coming, but even given that, nobody was quite warm enough, with highs of 99 and 103. Forecast.io was closest, though, with highs in their forecast of 97 and 103. Almost there!
Actuals: Friday – High 99, Low 69
Saturday – High 103, Low 68

Grade: A-D

Weather Wayback…. Always in Longview

It seems as though Anthony is the only one to ever forecast in Longview, and this Eastertime forecast was the second in a row that he did that we looked at a verification a few months later. It was something of a secret because of a certificate issue with Weather Underground, the best almanac for historical weather on the web. I figured it out, though, and saw that Easter did turn out to be wonderful in east Texas. There was a threat for some isolated thunderstorm activity in the area, but it held off until Monday, and even then was light enough that it certainly didn’t ruin anyone’s day. Victoria-Weather was the only outlet with a proper precip prognostication, but Weatherbug had a spot on temperature forecast, earning a victory in this weather wayback.
Actuals: April 16th, High 84, Low 65
April 17th – Trace of rain, High 80, Low 67

Grade B-C

Fernanda brings things down on Oahu

For vacationers in Honolulu, the nearby passage of Fernanda likely didn’t ruin anyone’s time there, but it certainly did affect the weather. Aside from the waves on the North Shore, there were also morning spots of drizzle in Honolulu, and a high temperature that only managed to reach 83 on Monday afternoon, several degrees off of what is typical. While many of us wish we could spend some time in Hawai’i, the NWS actually does have forecasters there, and they clearly know what they are doing, scoring a fairly easy victory.
Actuals: Monday – Trace of rain, High 83, Low 75
Tuesday – Trace of rain, High 88, Low 76

Grade: A-C