Category Archives: Verification

Spring really wants to come to Burlington

i’ve been caught up in other things recently, so this forecast for Burlington came nearly two weeks ago. Oops. The weather was on the upswing in Vermont at the time of the forecast, with an area of low pressure moving along the coast at the leading edge of a broader area of warm high pressure. Temperatures actually exceeded expectation on both Wednesday (the 26th!) and Thursday, hitting the 70s on Wednesday and nearly hitting 80 on Thursday. The National Weather Service claimed the top forecast for the day.
Actuals: Wednesday – .16 inches of rain High 73, Low 50
Thursday – High 79, Low 52

Grade: C-D

The City that Never Sees the Sun

New York City is usually the City that Never Sleeps, but if they were going to sleep well at any point, it was likely Tuesday and Wednesday last week. Clouds and a blustery rain fell through the 48 hour period, with heavier rain coming on Tuesday as an area of low pressure slid up the Eastern Seaboard. It was chilly and dreary and despite all that there is to do in the Big Apple, the best thing to do was hide inside under blankets. Victoria-Weather collected the top forecast.
Actuals: Tuesday – .91 inches of rain, High 54, Low 49
Wednesady – .34 inches of rain, High 60, Low 53

Grade: A-B

A rough day on the Cape

A rainy, slow moving system sliding up the Eastern Seaboard brought a bunch of rain to the coast this week. We all knew it was coming, but the rainiest parts were moving faster than most anticipated. In Barnstable, unfortunately exposed to the elements in the Gulf Stream. We knew rain was a possibility, but they saw almost an inch on Tuesday alone. The good news was that temperatures couldn’t drop out of the 50s. The bad news was that the temperatures couldn’t even manage to climb out of the mid 50s on Monday or Tuesday. This all worked out well for Victoria-Weather, who manhandled the forecast and our competition.
Actuals: Monday – High 55, Low 44
Tuesday – .97 inches of rain, High 53, Low 50

Grade: A-D

Morning Mischief

The forecast for Muncie, IN wasn’t too difficult, only the chance of a stray shower was the real wrinkle. However, the temperatures really muddied things up as the Sunday diurnal was far greater than anybody expected, mainly due to conditions really clearing out overnight Saturday. Sunday’s chilly morning temps caused some poor scores, but VW/FIO tied for the win, mainly by keeping things dry all weekend.

Saturday: High 58, Low 40.
Sunday: High 72, Low 34.
Forecast Grade: C

Weather Wayback… Before the drought

Earlier today, the SPC issued an extreme fire danger advisory for parts for New Mexico and Arizona, as neither location has seen much rain since the middle of February. In Farmington, where Anthony forecast on the 10th, they haven’t seen more than a trace since February 12th. Incredible to note that that .08″ they saw on that Sunday before Valentine’s Day was the last significant precipitation they saw, and we were there for the forecast. It looked to be a rainy weekend, especially by northwest New Mexico standards, but Saturday remained dry. Looking at how things have gone since then, I’ll bet they would have appreciated a little bit of rain on Saturday! For verification purposes, we can award Accuweather the top forecast for that particular February weekend.
Actuals
Saturday, February 11th – High 64, Low 43
Sunday, February 12th –  .08 inches of rain, High 53, Low 37

Grade: B-C

Rain dampens Pine Bluff

The words isolated and scattered have meaning to a meteorologist. For example, on Easter in Pine Bluff, outlets across the country labeled the threat for storms as “isolated”. Indeed, the weather was not widespread enough to inflict any unpleasant weather on Pine Bluff. The forecast on Monday, however, was for scattered showers and storms. There was over half an inch of rain in Pine Bluf, as showers smothered southern Arkansas. Weatherbug was very close on temperatures, and claimed victory.
Actuals – Sunday – High 81, Low 63
Monday – .64 inches of rain, High 78, Low 65

Grade: A-C

Breaking out in Wyoming

The Easter weekend was downright wonderful in Wyoming’s capital and largest city. The sun was well anticipated by forecasters everywhere, but it was even stronger in Cheyenne than most people expected. On Saturday and Sunday, the high was 66, boosted by clearer skies than anticipated, and winds that were more quickly from the west, contributing to downsloping flow and a quick warm up. There was a tie at the top, as Accuweather and The Weather Channel drew level.
Actuals: Saturday – High 66, Low 39
Sunday – High 66, Low 33

Grade: B

Finding a groove

Fort Walton Beach started to settle into their spring time groove through the middle of this week. The first step of this groove is morning fog, thanks to dew points in the mid 60s, which they saw in Fort Walton Beach in the wee hours of Wednesday morning. Then, of course, there is the consistent temperature trend, another hallmark of the spring in Florida, and a feature of the last two days. If I’m being honest, this should have been an easy forecast for everyone, but there weren’t any “A” Grades. Victoria-Weather nearly identified the groove, and claimed victory by the sea.
Actuals: Wednesday – High 78, Low 60
Thursday – High 78, Low  58

Grade: B-C

Weather Wayback… Iowa is fun for everyone

Anthony’s third in a trio of forecasts back at the beginning of February and end of January was for Iowa City. The weather was typical for early February, if a little bit warmer than normal, as temperatures were close to 30 by Thursday, February 3rd. This was due to sunny skies during the day, which also meant chilly temperatures under clear skies overnight. There was a three way draw atop the leaderboard, as Victoria-Weather had a nearly flawless forecast on February 2nd, while Accuweather and the National Weather Service caught up on the third. It was close all the way around, with the top three only 4 degrees better than the last place outlets.
Actuals: Wednesday, February 2nd – High 24, Low 14
Thursday, February 3rd – High 30, Low 13

Grade: B

Weather Wayback… back when there was still winter

At the beginning of February, Anthony took a look at Kalamazoo as a weak area of low pressure was moving from Michigan towards the eastern Great Lakes. Behind the feature, westerly winds meant persistent flurry activity in our forecast city. The thing is, the fetch was under high pressure, so the ceilings weren’t terribly thick, so temperatures were able to vary. Accuweather, who scored points for the best temperature forecasts tied with the National Weather Service, who accurately forecast snow on both the first and second of February, but in general, this wasn’t a top forecast for anyone.
Actuals: Wednesday, February 1st – .06 inches of precip, falling as snow, High 37, Low 25
Thursday, February 2nd – Trace of snow, High 25, Low 11

Grade: C-D