Category Archives: Verification

Clouds cap temps

There was a little spit of light rain on Tuesday in Bloomington as warm air drifted north ahead of a strong storm that brought blizzard like conditions to the Minnesota-Iowa border earlier today, and has brought some severe weather to the Great Lakes today. Back to the forecast period of Tuesday and Wednesday, though. The little bit of light rain brought clouds in the afternoon, which prevented Bloomington from warming up too much. The clouds were thicker than had been envisioned, and as a result, temperatures ended up a shade cooler than anyone had in their forecasts. Other than that? Not much of a problem in the forecast department, and there was a glut of outlets who tied at the top. Accuweather, Weatherbug and WeatherNation could all shared the victory.
Actuals: Tuesday – .03 inches of rain, High 64, Low 49
Wednesday – High 70, Low 51

Grade: B-C

The big chill

All this attention is paid to the warm temperatures during the day when the sun us out in the spring time. It reached 70 degrees in Lynchburg on Sunday and Monday. What folks failed to account for was temperatures dropping to the 30s at night. IT still gets chilly when there aren’t any clouds to trap the heat at night! These low temperatures drew the forecasts afoul. The National Weather Service and WeatherNation lead the way, but it wasn’t a very good performance.
Actuals: Sunday – High 70, Low 39
Monday – High 71, Low 35

Grade: C-D

Blown away

I mentioned earlier in our forecast for Charlottesville that our forecast was significantly cooler than what had actually occurred. The Charlottesville and Hartford forecasts came out at similar times, and they were snakebitten by the same problems, though the forecast in Hartford had greater issues. Temperatures blew past the projected highs, touching 61 degrees on Sunday. Victoria-Weather, just as an example, only saw them up to 47. Yikes. Forecasts were not good. The closest anyone got to that high was within 9 degrees, which WeatherNation and eventual winner Accuweather could claim. But who in their right mind forecasts the low 60s in New England in February, anyway?
Actuals: Saturday – High 50, Low 19
Sunday – High 61, Low 30

Grade: C-D

Exceeding expectations

We all knew ahead of time that the East Coast was in for a nice warm up. I can assure you that our group was not expecting that it would get quite so warm in Charlottesville. Indeed, temperatures were in the mid 60s on Friday, and then mid 70s on Saturday. That’s a great way to start a weekend. Unfortunately, that warm weather was accompanied by a spit of light rain. No forecast was great, but Accuweather was a bit better than The Weather Channel, and claimed victory.
Actuals: Friday – High 65, Low 29
Saturday – Trace of rain, High 73, Low 32

Grade: C-F

Flurries and not enough clouds

A weak little wave moving through the Great Lakes brought clouds and a bit of light snow to lower Michigan. The wave pulled a more significant feature north along the coast, but Kalamazoo in particular got through the middle of the week with only a trace of light snow. Clouds were thinner than anyone anticipated, particularly on Tuesday, Tuesday, when temperatures were able to climb all the way up to 47 degrees. There was only one outlet who saw temperatures getting that warm, Forecast.io, but their bum temperature forecast droppe them back again. In the end, it was The Weather Channel, despite being 4 degrees off on Tuesday, that had the top forecast.
Actuals: Tuesday – Trace of snow, High 47, Low 32
Wednesday – Trace of snow, High 34, Low 26

Grade B-C

Weather Wayback…. Whatever it takes

Obviously, the Dakotas get their reputation as iceboxes for a reason, but in early December, -8 is still unusually cold.  That’s what registered on the thermometer early on the morning of December 10th as Anthony put together the forecast for Fargo, but there was good news on the way, as a dose of warm air was coming. Of course, to earn the warm up, there needed to be a slug of snow preceding the front. It wasn’t as much as many outlets anticipated, ceasing after just over a couple inches, In Fargo, just as big a deal was the fact that the snow was not accompanied by winds more than 14mph. Victoria-Weather had the best temperature forecast, and ultimately the best overall forecast.
Actuals – December 10th – .2 inches of snow, High 7, Low -8
December 11th – 2.1 inches of snow, High 13, Low -2

Grade – B-D

Weather Wayback – The Bowling Green mastery

Well, since Anthony put together his forecast for Bowling Green back in early December, Bowling Green has received a lot of attention. A lot of weird attention. It wasn’t for weather on the 9th and 10th of December though, where high pressure kept things sunny and warm for the beginning of one of the final shopping weekends before Christmas. Before the national spotlight arrived in Bowling Green, Anthony compiled a very good forecast, within a degree or two of every verifying time, and edging out the rest of the crowd.
Actuals – December 9th – High 34, Low 20
December 10th – High 38, Low 15

Grade: A-B

Weather Wayback – Cleveland catches some flakes

Back at the beginning of December, Anthony took a look at a Cleveland forecast that was sodden with lake effect snows. OK, sodden may not have been the right turn of phrase, as there was only a stray flake or two in the mix. There was a nice blanket of overcast thanks to the fetch off Lake Erie, which kept temperatures from varying too wildly. Some outlets only had the temperature shift a degree or two during the day on December 8th, but that was a little overboard. Instead, Victoria Weather, conservative, but not aggressively so, ended up with the top forecast, and by a few degrees over the competition.
Actuals: December 8th – Trace of snow, High 33, low 25
December 9th – .08 inches of precip, falling as snow, High 30, Low 25

Grade: A-C

Record breaking

The big news on Twitter over the weekend (before the Oroville Dam nearly overwhelmed its spillways and Cee-Lo wore a gold helmet at the Grammys) was the 99 degree temperature in western Oklahoma on Saturday. The warm air didn’t stop in Oklahoma, moving into St. Louis as well, and bringing about record highs on Saturday. It was 74 in the afternoon, but dropped off to 57 for a high on Sunday. Forecast.io did the best job with the temperature swings and had the best forecast for the weekend in St. Louis.
Actuals: Saturday, High 74, Low 45
Sunday — High 57, Low 37

Grade: B-F

A Lansing blow

I’ll be honest. I came up with this title almost as soon as the forecast for Lansing was placed upon my schedule. Still, it works out fine, as the Michigan Capitol was nicked by some snow both on Thursday and Friday as a departing system left a trace of snow to remember it by on Thursday, and an advancing warm front brought another spit of wet weather as the workweek concluded. The temperatures changed dramatically, as the system departed and warm air encroached, but a couple of outlets handled things very well. Accuweather had the top spot, narrowly bumping Victoria-Weather.
Actuals: Thursday – .1″ of snow, High 20, Low 13
Friday – Trace of snow, High 36, Low 14

Grade – A-B