Category Archives: Verification

One for the record books

It’s kind of amazing what can happen out in the  Front Range, especially this time of year. On Tuesday morning, temperatures in Fort Collins were a few degrees cooler than what had been anticipated, dipping all the way to 29 degrees before the sun came up. Rather than spoiling the forecast by leading to temperatures that were much cooler than the forecasts had in mind, temperatures soared on Wednesday, setting a record high for the date, topping out at 83 degrees. Weatherbug was tied for the top forecast, and they were 10 degrees too low, if that gives you any idea how well handled this forecast was. Victoria-Weather was a bit warmer on Wednesday, and parlayed that into earning the other share of the victory.
Actuals: Tuesday – High 62, Low 29
Wednesday – High 83, Low 36

Grade C-D

Dalton dodges most of the rain

A particularly virulent area of low pressure developing over the southeastern US promised to bring heavy rain to the east coast as this week began. It sure did! The thing is, all that rain fell everywhere BUT Dalton, where we issued a forecast on Saturday. I mean, there was some rain in northern Georgia, but only a splash reached the rain gauge in Dalton. It still verified as rain, and everyone got a point for getting that part of the forecast correct. It came down to the temperature forecasts, and the best belonged to Accuweather.
Actuals: Sunday – High 77, Low 50
Monday – .03 inches of rain, High 69, Low 51

Grade: B-D

Above the forecast, below average

Our look at the weather for south Texas at the end of the weekend promised a cool down in McAllen after a cold front pushed into the Gulf of Mexico. It did indeed cool down, but temperatures resisted dropping all the way down to the range predicted by most of our outlets. Still, the average high in McAllen, even this late into the year, is in the upper 80s, and there was a bit of a break from that, at the very least. Victoria-Weather and the Weather Service put together the top forecasts.
Actuals: Monday – Trace of rain in the early morning, Hgh 85, Low 63
Tuesday – High 86, Low 57

Grade: C-D

Storms come roaring through

Last weekend was a pretty gross one around the Great Lakes, as an area of low pressure moved northeast towards Hudson Bay, Along with it came a cold front that brought severe weather to the Ohio Valley, and as the weekend wound to a close, it strafed the mid-Atlantic. Utica appreciated a last taste of summer before the boundary swept through Sunday evening, with temperatures touching 80 degrees before a line of thunderstorms charged through town, dropping a quarter inch of rain and contributing gusts that touched 45mph. With all this commotion, the NWS kept a level head and had a very good forecast.
Actuals: Saturday – High 69, Low 57
Sunday – .25 inches of rain in thunderstorms, High 80, Low 55

Grade: A-C

Warm in the Valley

San Jose was situated post frontally and surrounded by a host of wildfires on Thursday night, which suggested to some of us that the temperature on Friday would be held in check. It was not. Down sloping flow and clear skies allowed temperatures to climb to nearly 80 on Friday, and to reach that point on Saturday. Equally clear skies allowed temperatures to drop all the way to the mid-40s overnight. There were two schools of thought on this forecast, and the one espoused by Accuweather came to fruition. The others, a less dynamic solution brought forth by Victoria-Weather and the Weather Service was profoundly unsuccessful. Accuweather had the easy win.
Actuals: Friday : High 78, Low 45
Saturday – High 80, Low 48

Grade A-D

Cold Morning Chaos

The early morning showers dodged the Corvallis area, so dry weather was had throughout the last couple of days. Skies overnight had cleared out and temperatures plummeted a lot more than expected, which threw most forecasts out of whack by a good 5-8 degrees. Oops. Accuweather was the best of the bunch.

Sunday: High 64, Low 39.
Monday: High 66, Low 33.
Forecast Grade: C-F

More to come

The weekend could have been a real soaker in Amish country in Pennsylvania, but the two biggest features moving into the Lancaster area worked against each other. A cold front moving out of the Appalachians brought all the rain on Sunday morning, with clearing coming as Nate drew flow away from the boundary. There was a bit of rain as Nate approached late in the day, but each afternoon was dry. Today, the real rain arrived with Nate, and it was much messier. It was a tight forecast, as the increasing overcast kept temperatures pretty close together, so the NWS and WeatherNation tied for the victory, with a narrow defeat of the opposition.
Actuals: Saturday: High 84, Low 60
Sunday – .10 inches of rain, High 79, Low 733

Grade: B-C

Wet in Wisconsin

Earlier today, there was a weak tornado reported in Madison, though it had more to do with the circulation associated with an area of low pressure, and not really with a strong cold front, which moved through Tuesday night into Wednesday. Madison saw over half an inch of rain with that cold front, and a second bout of rain today, including that rogue tornado on the east side of town. Weatherbug collected the top forecast for the day, thanks to being one of only a handful to get the right precipitation forecast, on top of possession of an above average temperature forecast. It got a little colder than anyone expected on Wednesday, which screwed up every forecast available.
Actuals:  Tuesday – .32 inches of rain, High 79, Low 65
Wednesday – .35 inches of rain, High 70, Low 45

Grade: C-D

Wacky Warmups

Periods of rain showers and thunderstorms moved through the Sioux Falls area pretty much as expected throughout the weekend. What wasn’t anticipated, however, was how warm it’d be both afternoons. Temperatures were a good 6-8 degrees higher than forecast, no doubt assisted by the strong southerly flow felt throughout the weekend. VW took home the victory thanks to slightly less awful high temperature forecasts.

Saturday: 0.05″ of rain in afternoon showers. High 72, Low 53.
Sunday: 1.27″ of rain in both early morning and late night storms. High 75, Low 58.
Forecast Grade: D

Everyone is on the same page

If you follow along with our forecasts closely, you likely noted that the forecasts in Anderson, South Carolina were very tightly bunched. This is because without synoptic scale features, or the benefit of variable cloud cover, everyone rightfully relied closely on model guidance, which is highly reliable in these situations. The Weather Channel got a very, very slight victory, and nearly everyone else tied just one degree behind them.
Actuals: Monday – High 84, Low 63
Tuesday – High 72, Low 63

Grade: B