Category Archives: Verification

Weather Wayback… Aiming to impress

Back in Mid-November last year, Anthony remarked upon his knowing someone that lived in our forecast city, Wheeling, West Virginia. He wanted to make sure that he would give a good impression by nailing this forecast. Close, I guess. It was a challenging forecast all around, so nobody had a perfect forecast, but Forecast.io  came through with the top forecast by going warm on the 16th, but more importantly, staying cool on the 17th. Was Anthony’s friend impressed? Maybe, but this wasn’t necessarily our best shhowing.
Actuals: November 16th – Trace of rain, High 47, Low 36
November 17th, High 44, Low 35

Grade: B-D

Surpassing expectations

A couple of rainy days came and went in the Akron area during the middle of the week. They were the generic kind, not the kind that make news headlines because of their persistence or severity. Just your average, regular old thunderstorms. If there was anything noteworthy, particularly among the meteorology crowd, it was that temperatures still nudged up close to 90 on Tuesday, and were above the forecast highs on Wednesday as well.  Accuweather claimed the top forecast for the day.
Actuals: Tuesday – .17″ of rain in thunderstorms, High 88, Low 70
Wednesday – .01″ of rain, High 86, Low 71

Grade: B-C

Weather Wayback… The end of Hurricane season

Here we sit, approaching the busiest time of year in the Atlantic hurricane season, and we are going to turn back to look at the end of last year’s season on the Atlantic Coast of Florida.  Palm Bay in mid-November was at the tail end of what had been a tortuous Atlantic Season, but they were enjoying extremely pleasant weather, with only a few scattered showers and storms thanks to sea breezes. Not only was the hurricane threat nearly gone, but the weather was downright comfortable, probably for the first time in months on the Florida Peninsula. The top forecaster was Forecast,io.
Actuals: November 14th, .01 inches of rain, High 82, Low 71
November 15th, High 81, Low 69

Grade: C

Big Sky Bake off

As July fell into February, the mountainous Montana metropolis of Missoula was enjoying some mild air thanks in part to the elevation, but also because it opted to enjoy the Praitie’s cool rather than the Pacific Northwest’s intense heat. As everyone knows, though, warm air rises, and Missoula got much hotter as the foecast period progressed, reaching 95 degrees by Wednesday afternoon. There were no thunderstorms to break the heat, despite the wishes of most residents, but to the benefit of Accuweather, who had the top forecast.
Tuesday – High 85, Low 53
Wednesday – High 95, Low 55

Grade: C

Doinked

Thunderstorms were in the forecast for southern Georgia as the week ended last week, as an area of low pressure drifted into the Canadian Maritimes, but they weren’t really expected to be especially heavy, nor particularly long lasting. Well, the storm that came through Valdosta late on Saturday wasn’t necessarily the longest lasting storm, but it definitely was heavy. Valdosta reported over 2 inches of rain, which was definitely not in the plans, even though thunderstorms were. All it takes is one heavy storm to sit right over a rain gauge for a little while, and it completely changes the impression of a day.  The Weather Service and Weather Nation combined their powers to win the forecast.
Actuals: Friday, High 91, Low 72
Saturday 2.15 inches of rain, High 92, Low 70

Grade: B-D

Big Easy verification

I put together a video forecast on Sunday for the city of New Orleans, an unusual happenstance was in the forecast. There was a bona fide front moving through on Monday afternoon, and it brought some synoptic scale showers and storms to the Big Easy, but more impressively, it brought more pleasant weather on Tuesday. Temperatures only dipped a hair, but the northerly breeze must have felt nice. Victoria-Weather and Accuweather shared a tie atop the leaderboard.
Actuals: Monday .16 inches of rain, High 93, Low 78
Tuesday – High 91, Low 82

Grade: B-C

Albany is all right

The end of the week last week in upstate New York was in pretty great shape. Temperatures under high pressure in Albany were in the 80s, with overnight lows in the mid 50s. It got a bit warmer on Friday ahead of an advancing area of low pressure, but the nasty weather held off, of course, until the weekend, but after our forecast period was through. Forecast.io nearly nailed the forecast, and got the win.
Actuals: Thursday, High 83, Low 56
Friday – High 88, Low 57

Grade: A-B

Sun in the shadow

Last Sunday, we sought a little perspective on the coming forecast for Athens, Georgia. We found that there was a persistent northwesterly flow with high pressure advancing to the area. This placed Athens, and pretty much only Athens, in a rain shadow cast by the Smokey Mountains. The sun was due to be out, and most precipitation was shunted west and south. The correct forecast was to err on the warm, dry side, which Victoria Weather did, winning the forecast by a decent margin.
Actuals: Monday -.07 inches of rain, High 90, Low 73
Tuesday, .01 inches of rain, High 93, Low 72

Grade: A-C

Everybody’s the same

Last week we took a look at the forecast in Lansing ahead of a weak cold front moving into the region. It bubbled up some warm air ahead of the boundary, more so than anyone really even predicted. In fact, last Tuesday saw the highs reach 90, which is a tough thing to do smack dab in either of Michigan’s peninsulas. Everyone was a hair too cool on the high temperature, though overnight lows were quite successful. There was almost no discrepancy in the forecast verification from outlet to outlet. The Weather Channel, Weatherbug and Forecast.io all tied for the win, while everyone else came in a 4 way tie for second.
Actuals: Sunday – High 88, Low 55
Mionday – High 90, Low 61

Grade: B

Warmth for the weekend

Last week, we looked at the forecast for Lexington, Kentucky, and saw a cold front sweeping south, likely interrupted by the still developing Hurricane Chris. We thought the rain would slow down, but we certainly didn’t think the cold air would be waylaid. Indeed, temperature were 4-9 degrees warmer than expected on Friday, and still a few degrees warmer on Saturday. There was a little bit of rain on Friday, so that did make it through. We could still be surprised by the warmth, though. Accuweather and the Weather Service tied at the top.
Actuals: Friday – .14” of rain, High 87, Low 68
Saturday – High 84, low 60

Grade B-C