Category Archives: Verification

A late fall temperature surge

The thing about advancing cold fronts is that sometimes, they don’t end  long spells of hot weather.  Sometimes, warm air is pulled further north due to the same circulation that is producing the cold front, which means, essentially, you couldn’t have the warm air without the cold front. Whoa. So that’s what happened in Providence this week, and was extremely efficient. After our forecast valid period, a little wave was moving through Canada, cut off from any moisture, still efficiently tugged a great deal of warmth north. It was almost 60 degrees on Tuesday, a spike in temperature over the 43 degrees on Monday. Accuweather and Forecast.io were the unlikely duo who had the best forecast on this day.
Actuals: Monday – High 43, Low 35
Tuesday – High 59, Low 36

Grade: A-C

Cold Turkey

A cold front moving through the country towed a big swath of cold temperatures through the Plains, and that chilly air was able to sink as far south as Wichita Falls. The most apparent time of day for those chilly temperatures was overnight, when low temperatures plummeted into the low to mid 30s. Brr! The clear skies allowed for those chilly temperatures overnight, but let temperatures climb back into the 60s as well. Victoria-Weather and surprising WeatherNation came together to get the tie.
Actuals: Sunday – High 61, Low 35
Monday – High 66, Low 33

Grade: B-C

Temperatures that don’t belong in Arizona

Flagstaff isn’t the type of town that you think of when you think of Arizona. The winter is often chilly and snowy, while in the summer, it never gets quite as warm as the more famous environs of the state. Flagstaff was expected to be fairly cool over the weekend, but by golly, those overnight lows were unreasonable. It was as cold as 10 degrees on Sunday morning. 10! This was much colder than expected, and across the board, forecasts went bust. The top spots went to Accuweather and Forecast.io, but they weren’t terribly good either.
Actuals: Saturday – High 46, Low 15
Sunday – High 55, Low 10

Grade: D-F

Great expectations

A system moving through the Ohio Valley was supposed to start pulling some warm air off the Gulf and into southeastern Georgia, where it was to warm things back up in places like Hinesville, perhaps even comfortably above average. It did warm back up, but those rising temperatures only brought it back to near normal. The more optimistic outlets suffered, as a result, but The Weather Channel, who suspected the warmth would be less successful on moving back into the region, ended up earning victory.
Actuals Wednesday – High 63, Low 42
Thursday – High 72, Low 38

Grade: A-B

The unchanging air mass

Medford, and the entirety of the Pacific Northwest, really, were slammed with a strong system during the middle of the week. A system of this ilk, and in fact this very same system currently, were it to move through the Plains would have the energy to change the climate of a city from fall to winter in the span of a couple of hours. In Medford? The high temperature dropped 5 degrees from Tuesday to Wednesday, and that was about it. There was a little bit of rain on Wednesday, sure, but it wasn’t the slobberknocker it was further up the coast, or to the east in the Rockies. It was a slobberknocker among the meteorologists forecasting for the site. 6 of the 7 outlets were within 2 degrees of one another, but only one outlet sat alone at the top… Us! Victoria-Weather earned the win.
Actuals: Tuesday – High 54, Low 34
Wednesday – .19 inches of rain, HIgh 49, Low 34

Grade: C-D

Santa Barbara keeps the beach open

Despite a couple of systems pummeling the Pacific Northwest, it seemed as though Santa Barbara transcended all climatological concerns. The sun was out for the most part, but there were a few clouds to prevent too much sunburn in case anyone forgot the sunscreen.  In general, the flow off the Pacific was less robust than the forecast called for, which resulted in temperatures being a hair warmer than anticipated during the day. Overnight, however, the weaker flow meant clear skies, which are nice, right up until those temperatures start dropping. With no marine layer, overnight lows dropped to the upper 40s, which allowed Victoria-Weather to rise up and take the victory in the very pleasant Santa Barbara.
Actuals: Wednesday – High 72, Low 47
Thursday – High 70, Low 49

Grade: C-D

Chico dips its toes into fall

Temperatures in Chico started a slow descent towards winter over the past couple of days. After a cold front moved through northern California, temperatures failed to get out of the 50s for the next two days. The cooler temperatures were certainly autumnal, but the lack of rain in the area, despite a somewhat active pattern is distinctly Californian. The Weather Channel was in a three way tie for the lead when looking solely at temperatures, but they skyrocketed to the lead when they withheld rain from the forecast
Actuals:  Sunday – High 57, Low 44
Monday – High 59, Low 42

Grade: A-B

Persistent overcast gives rise to inconsistent drizzle

After a cold front moved through the Joplin area late last week, clouds hung around well beyond their welcome. There was never any clearing, which was somewhat unexpected. We all knew that Friday was probably a lost cause, but the continued cloudiness on Saturday was a real downer. Temperatures were at least 5 degrees off the most conservative estimates, and some of those clouds even led to a bit of drizzle mid-day on Saturday, which was almost entirely unexpected. Accuweather wasn’t quite as on their heels as other outlets, and picked up on that precipitation forecast, but their temperatures were far enough off, that the best they could do was a tie with The Weather Channel for the title in Joplin.
Actuals: Friday – High 62, Low 50
Saturday – Trace of rain, High 67, Low 49

Grade: C-D

Philippe can’t be contained

The remnants of Philippe moved through the mid-Atlantic and brought a nice spat of rain and wind to New England and the Chesapeake. He also flared up just as he made his landfall, and became broad enough to keep clouds and rain over our forecast city of Youngstown for both the two days of our forecast period. A cold front swept through on Sunday, but more rain fell on Monday with the backwash from the deepening Nor’Easter. Only half of the outlets had rain in the forecast, but Weathebug outpaced the field on temperatures by so much that they won despite having rain only with that cold front.
Actuals: Sunday .08″ of rain, trace of snow, High 44, Low 35
Monday – .11″ of rain, High 42, Low 37

Grade: C

Columbus struggles to recover

A cold front moving through Indiana Friday night into Saturday brought rain, certainly, but also did an excellent job of bringing cold air. Unlike in the summer, when warmth usually can find its way back to town as soon as the sun comes back out, temperatures struggled to recover in Columbus. Overcast skies remained in place as the center of low pressure stalled in the Great Lakes, which meant that temperatures couldn’t get out of the 30s yesterday. Brr! Weatherbug always trends cooler than other outlets, and today, it paid off, because they had the top forecast!
Actuals: Friday – Rain reported, not measured, HIgh 53, Low 37
Saturday – High 39, Low 35

Grade: B-C