Category Archives: Verification

Morning Mischief

The forecast for Muncie, IN wasn’t too difficult, only the chance of a stray shower was the real wrinkle. However, the temperatures really muddied things up as the Sunday diurnal was far greater than anybody expected, mainly due to conditions really clearing out overnight Saturday. Sunday’s chilly morning temps caused some poor scores, but VW/FIO tied for the win, mainly by keeping things dry all weekend.

Saturday: High 58, Low 40.
Sunday: High 72, Low 34.
Forecast Grade: C

Weather Wayback… Before the drought

Earlier today, the SPC issued an extreme fire danger advisory for parts for New Mexico and Arizona, as neither location has seen much rain since the middle of February. In Farmington, where Anthony forecast on the 10th, they haven’t seen more than a trace since February 12th. Incredible to note that that .08″ they saw on that Sunday before Valentine’s Day was the last significant precipitation they saw, and we were there for the forecast. It looked to be a rainy weekend, especially by northwest New Mexico standards, but Saturday remained dry. Looking at how things have gone since then, I’ll bet they would have appreciated a little bit of rain on Saturday! For verification purposes, we can award Accuweather the top forecast for that particular February weekend.
Actuals
Saturday, February 11th – High 64, Low 43
Sunday, February 12th –  .08 inches of rain, High 53, Low 37

Grade: B-C

Rain dampens Pine Bluff

The words isolated and scattered have meaning to a meteorologist. For example, on Easter in Pine Bluff, outlets across the country labeled the threat for storms as “isolated”. Indeed, the weather was not widespread enough to inflict any unpleasant weather on Pine Bluff. The forecast on Monday, however, was for scattered showers and storms. There was over half an inch of rain in Pine Bluf, as showers smothered southern Arkansas. Weatherbug was very close on temperatures, and claimed victory.
Actuals – Sunday – High 81, Low 63
Monday – .64 inches of rain, High 78, Low 65

Grade: A-C

Breaking out in Wyoming

The Easter weekend was downright wonderful in Wyoming’s capital and largest city. The sun was well anticipated by forecasters everywhere, but it was even stronger in Cheyenne than most people expected. On Saturday and Sunday, the high was 66, boosted by clearer skies than anticipated, and winds that were more quickly from the west, contributing to downsloping flow and a quick warm up. There was a tie at the top, as Accuweather and The Weather Channel drew level.
Actuals: Saturday – High 66, Low 39
Sunday – High 66, Low 33

Grade: B

Finding a groove

Fort Walton Beach started to settle into their spring time groove through the middle of this week. The first step of this groove is morning fog, thanks to dew points in the mid 60s, which they saw in Fort Walton Beach in the wee hours of Wednesday morning. Then, of course, there is the consistent temperature trend, another hallmark of the spring in Florida, and a feature of the last two days. If I’m being honest, this should have been an easy forecast for everyone, but there weren’t any “A” Grades. Victoria-Weather nearly identified the groove, and claimed victory by the sea.
Actuals: Wednesday – High 78, Low 60
Thursday – High 78, Low  58

Grade: B-C

Weather Wayback… Iowa is fun for everyone

Anthony’s third in a trio of forecasts back at the beginning of February and end of January was for Iowa City. The weather was typical for early February, if a little bit warmer than normal, as temperatures were close to 30 by Thursday, February 3rd. This was due to sunny skies during the day, which also meant chilly temperatures under clear skies overnight. There was a three way draw atop the leaderboard, as Victoria-Weather had a nearly flawless forecast on February 2nd, while Accuweather and the National Weather Service caught up on the third. It was close all the way around, with the top three only 4 degrees better than the last place outlets.
Actuals: Wednesday, February 2nd – High 24, Low 14
Thursday, February 3rd – High 30, Low 13

Grade: B

Weather Wayback… back when there was still winter

At the beginning of February, Anthony took a look at Kalamazoo as a weak area of low pressure was moving from Michigan towards the eastern Great Lakes. Behind the feature, westerly winds meant persistent flurry activity in our forecast city. The thing is, the fetch was under high pressure, so the ceilings weren’t terribly thick, so temperatures were able to vary. Accuweather, who scored points for the best temperature forecasts tied with the National Weather Service, who accurately forecast snow on both the first and second of February, but in general, this wasn’t a top forecast for anyone.
Actuals: Wednesday, February 1st – .06 inches of precip, falling as snow, High 37, Low 25
Thursday, February 2nd – Trace of snow, High 25, Low 11

Grade: C-D

Weather Wayback… Another time,, the same Longview

I have issued a forecast for Longview, Texas in the time since Anthony issued his own forecast on January 30th. Back at the end of January, it had become clear that Texas had already lost its taste for winter. Temperatures were in the mid to upper 70s for highs in the afternoon, and never got any cooler than the upper 40s. That’s unusual for the transition from January to February for almost everyone, so Longview needed the unwavering analytical mind of the Forecast.io robot to steer them right. Forecast.io did indeed have the best forecast, as their highs were a handful of degrees warmer than the human forecasters.
Actuals: Tuesday, January 31st – High 77, Low 48
Wednesday, February 1st – High 76, Low 56

Grade: B-C

April brings a break

Jacksonville, North Carolina had a healthy round of severe weather to contend with as March wound to a close. When April rolled around over the weekend, it was as if the climate had changed with the calendar. Temperatures were pleasant and skies were clear as surface high pressure built behind the late March storm. The bad news is, storms will be on their way back as this weekend ends. There was a three way tie at the top of the leaderboard, with Victoria-Weather, Accuweather and the Weather Service drawing level.
Actuals: Saturday – High 75, Low 53
Sunday – High 69, Low 52

Grade: A-C

Backwards

It’s probably a good thing that we aren’t officially verifying the forecast for Ocean City. We knew that temperatures would be a little bit off because Ocean City doesn’t have an official observation point. We can still reference what happened in Atlantic City, though, and surmise that our forecasts wouldn’t have been great. There was a sharp spike in temperature as low pressure arrived to the west, scuttling any hopes of a successful forecast. Atlantic City reached 70 degrees on Monday, which was at least 10 degrees warmer than any outlet called for .The temperatures cooled off – the opposite of what was in the forecast – For Tuesday, as more rain moved in. All in all, good news that we won’t have to think about this forecast anymore.