Category Archives: Verification

Clearing out in Bay City

Last weekend, the inclement weather was a little bit further north than it was this weekend. It cleared out of Bay City as the work week began, though, with only a stray flurry on Monday morning as sunny skies filtered in. It was a bit chilly, of course, with temperatures bottoming out a 20 on Tuesday morning. There was a two way tie atop the leaderboard, with The Weather Channel and Accuweather tying for victory.
Actuals: Monday – .01 inches of liquid, falling as snow, High 35, Low 28
Tuesday – High 33, Low 20

Grade: B-C

Canton doesn’t go anywhere

Last week’s snow storm didn’t really cream the eastern Great Lakes like it did further to the west. Canton was far enough to the east that they didn’t really get caught up in the heavy wintry precipitation. It rained plenty on Monday, before temperature cooled off enough for some flakes to fall in the evening. The thick layer of clouds meant that temperatures were in the 40s, until they started to fall off on Monday, making it all the way down to 31. Everything seemed to happen on Monday night, huh? Accuweather was the winner of this particular forecasting venture.
Actuals: Sunday, High 49, Low 43
Monday – .36” of precipitation, mixed, High 48, Low 31

Grade: A-C

Clipper Clipped

A weak Alberta Clipper sliding through the Upper Midwest was supposed to supply Decatur with a fresh top coat to the snow that had already fallen in the middle of last week. As it turned out, the system was weaker than we expected, bringing half as much snow to Minnesota than we expected, and it failed to hold together all the way to Decatur. The outlets that had the best results were the ones who left snow out of the forecast, in particularWeatherBug had a nearly perfect forecast, and had an easy victory on the day. 
Actuals: Friday – High 37, L:ow 27
Saturday – High 38, Low 26

Grade: A-C

Doink!

Florida is both easy and difficult to forecast for. You can say that there is no synoptic scale reason to expect any significant thunderstorm threat, as I did in Deltona, but there is always a myriad of microscale phenomena to latch onto a moist parcel and blow up rogue thunderstorms, which is exactly what happened on Monday. Though the synoptic forcing seemed to want to kick things to the north, or so it seemed, a slow moving thunderstorm parked over Deltona shortly after noon, bringing nearly half an inch of rain, and preventing temperatures from reaching their full potential. Other than that thunderstorm, Victoria-Weather had a perfect forecast. Of course, because  of that storm, the NWS and WeatherNation snuck in for victory.
Actuals: Monday .41 inches of rain in thunderstorms, High 84, Low 68
Tuesday – Rain reported, not measured, High 88, Low 71

Grade: A-C

Weather Wayback – Holiday hangover

As we approach Thanksgiving 2018, we can look back to Christmas 2017 and think “wow, what happened there?” Shortly after Christmas, Anthony put together an unusually chilly forecast for Tallahassee, and much to the surprise of all interested parties, a cold frnt made it even colder than anyone expected. Nearly half an inch of rain fell on December 27th, and on the 28th, temperatures only made it to 48, a far cry from the forecast highest in the upper 50s.It was a bad forecast across the board, but the NWS and WeatherNation ultimately pulled off a sllightly better forecast.
Actuals Thursday December 27th, .41 inches of rain,  High 50, Low 43
Friday December 28th, High 48, Low 33

Grade: C-D

All verifications, all the time

One thing that readers tell us all the time, is that, if we could just post nothing but verifications all the time, it would really improve the site. Well, here you are, faithful readers, the fourth in a row! OK, nobody is demanding that, but we are cleaning up some back log, including this look at Huntsville, where they remain behind a front late last week. There was a steady stream of moisture into northern Alabama from the west, sprinkling the area with, well, sprinkles. Temperatures ere held in check by the persistent overcast, particularly overnight, when the Thursday morning low was only 4 degrees cooler than the afternoon high. Forecast.io had the top forecast in the Alabama’s tech capital. 
Actuals: Wednesday – .06 inches of rain, High 62, Low 45
Thursday – .03 inches of rain, High 55, Low 51

Grade: B-C

Duluth doldrums

Lake effect snow is certainly something that CAN happen in Duluth, but it is not something that happens often, thanks entirely to the fact that it is on the northwest shore of Lake Superior, and is rarely downwind from the Lake. There was some easterly flow, though, early this week, and though most of the snow fell up the shore, there was quarter inch of liquid in Duluth, but the big impact was the thick layer of clouds smothering town, keeping temperatures fairly static through the period. Victoria-Weather put together the top forecast. 
Actuals: Monday – .11 inches of liquid in snow, High 39, low 35
Tuesday  .13 inches of liquid in snow, High 39, Low 31

Grade A- C

November takes a turn

We forecast for Harrisburg at the beginning of the month, and had to watch as the Keystone capital was battered by successive rounds of low pressure centers moving from Texas to New England. One of the heaviest batches if rain came through on Thursday, with nearly 2 inches of accumulation swamping the city. At least it was a work day, right? A good work day to remain indoors, it seems. Forecast.io and The Weather Channel came together to put forth the top forecast.
Actuals: Wednesday – High 74, Low 50
Thursday – High 69, Low 54

Grade: C

 

No Battle in Battle Creek

As expected, some light rain fell late Sunday night and lingered into Monday morning. Luckily it wasn’t a washout for Battle Creek, as amounts stayed under 0.05″ total. Weather Channel ran away with the win, as their slightly warmer forecast proved to be the difference.

Sunday: 0.02″ of rain. High 55, Low 41.
Monday: 0.02″ of rain. High 51, Low 47.
Forecast Grade: A-

The second time around

We returned to St. Cloud for the second time in about a week, and things seem to have been better for forecasters, though a quick moving batch of rain likely made things a bit worse, weather-wise. Of course, that rain fell only from Saturday night to Sunday morning, so perhaps St. Cloud residents were able to stay dry, which means this weekend everyone was happy! The National Weather Service had the best weekend, winning the best forecast with ease.
Actuals: Saturday – .22 inches of rain, High 53, Low 43
Sunday – .03 inches of rain, High 54, Low 36

Grade: B-C