Category Archives: Verification

Everyone is on the same page

If you follow along with our forecasts closely, you likely noted that the forecasts in Anderson, South Carolina were very tightly bunched. This is because without synoptic scale features, or the benefit of variable cloud cover, everyone rightfully relied closely on model guidance, which is highly reliable in these situations. The Weather Channel got a very, very slight victory, and nearly everyone else tied just one degree behind them.
Actuals: Monday – High 84, Low 63
Tuesday – High 72, Low 63

Grade: B

Jose brings a chill

Warm weather had arrived in New England last weekend as a warm front lifted north through Canada. It hit the mid 80s on Sunday, which is unusual , as you might guess, for this time of year in Manchester, New Hampshire, but it was a hurricane that nicked the temperature. Jose redirected a cooler easterly flow off the north Atlantic, and high temperatures dropped by 12 degrees on Monday, which was fine, because it was the work week. There was no rain, which prevented from earning the victory, instead, giving it to Accuweather.
Actuals: Sunday – High 84, Low 63
Monday – High 72, Low 63

Grade: B-C

Weather Wayback…. Summer approaches

I don’t know about you, but when I think of Arkansas, especially in the spring and summer, I think a hot, sticky, verdant land, that is as physically beautiful as it is uncomfortable. Well, for a northerner, anyways. In the middle of May, at least in Jonesboro, it wasn’t quite that sultry. It helped that a cold front, beset with a great deal of spring rains, had just swept through the region, dropping a couple of inches of rain late in the week, leaving the weekend of the 13th and 14th much more tolerable. Temperatures were in the 70s and dew points were reasonable, sitting in the low 60s. It was Accuweather that claimed the top forecast, while there was a tight cluster just behind them, way back in mid-May.
Actuals: Saturday – May 13th – High 78, Low 55
Sunday – May 14th, High 80, Low 53

Grade: A-B

Lows Lead Forecasts Astray

The early morning showers dodged the area as expected in the Terre Haute area, and made for a dry couple of days. Low temperatures were a bit tricky, however, and made a couple of forecasts look a bit foolish. Those of us here at VW were fooled less than almost everybody else, as we tied with the Weather Channel for the victory.

Tuesday: High 74, Low 57.
Wednesday: High 68, Low 43.
Forecast Grade: B

Airing out

After a catastrophic week of rain in Houston from Hurricane Harvey, we’ve spent this week wondering how we can recover, and how we can help.  The good news was that Texas has been pretty dry lately. We’ve been keeping special tabs on Austin, which stayed away from some isolated thunderstorms in the area, but it was in the mid 90s both days of the weekend. It was hot, certainly, but as long as it’s not raining, I think Texans can accept that. The National Weather Service had the top forecast.
Actuals: Saturday – High 94, Low 69
Sunday – High 92, Low 70

Grade: A-C

Monterey Bay, a world apart

If you look for weather headlines, aside from the recovery from Harvey in Houston, to the looming danger from Irma in the north Atlantic, the next big story is the heat and fire danger out west. Earlier it was Seattle and Portland that experienced record heat, but last week, it was San Francisco. Los Angeles is seeing a wild fire in an area that hasn’t seen such an event in 80 years. Meanwhile, in places like Monterey Bay, and in particular, Santa Cruz, temperatures as of mid-week remained in the mid 70s for highs. The cold Pacific and a barrier of mountains to the east do a good job keeping anything but cool temperatures out of the area. With regards to the forecast for the area, Victoria-Weather collected the top marks for the city by the sea.
Actuals: Tuesday – High 72, Low 57
Wednesday – High 76, Low 52

Grade: B-C

Savannah dodges a tropical storm

Last weekend, as Harvey was bringing devastation to east Texas, there was another area that seemed like a possibly organizing tropical feature over north Florida. Much to the surprise of nearly everyone, the feature never became a tropical storm, and it only grazed Savannah with a little bit of light rain on Sunday and Monday. The narrow temperature trends were well anticipated by everyone, and the collective forecast was pretty good. The Weather Channel nosed the rest of us to claim a razor thin victory.
Sunday – .07 inches of rain, High 84, Low 75
Monday – .03 inches of rain, High 79, Low 70

Grade: A-B

Weather Wayback … back when the weather changed in the west

Whatever headlines we see for the center and eastern parts of the country, it seems, as of late, the weather out west has remained the same. Dry and hot. Back in May, however, it wasn’t quite the same situation, and after a system moved out of the western US and into the Rockies, there was a splash of rain in our early May forecast for Grand Junction, and it wasn’t much of a surprise. Nowadays? It would definitely be a surprise, and a welcome relief. Back in May, up in the mountains of the central Rockies, the National Weather Service had the top forecast.
Actuals: Friday, May 5th, High 87, Low 48
Saturday, May 6th, .06 inches of rain, High 83,, Low 52

Grade: A-C

Irma isn’t around to keep it cool

Most of the forecasts for Columbia incorporated some organization to the potential tropical storm off the Georgia coast. Alas, this storm, a future Irma, was not yet to be. Columbia didn’t enjoy any respite from clouds, and no temperate air was brought in to reduce temperatures. Instead, it was a typical August swelter in the South Carolina capital, with temperatures touching the 90s each day this weekend. Weatherbug still managed to hang on to a pretty decent forecast, winning the day.
Actuals: Saturday – High 92, Low 73
Sunday – High 90, Low 72

Grade B-C