Category Archives: Verification

Freeze averted

Fresno was unusually cool for the last couple of days, but fortunately, it never quite chilled as much as most outlets expected. There were four outlets that were either a hair warmer, or hit two temperatures on the nose, and there was, as a result, a four way tie at the top, with The Weather Channel, National Weather Service, Weatherbug and WeatherNation all tied, and Fresno stayed above freezing.
Actuals: Monday – High 51, Low 35
Tuesday – High 53, Low 35

Grade – A – C

Rain in the desert

Technically, Bakersfield in southern California sees little enough rain that it can be considered a desert, so the fact that they had a weekend that saw rain both days is a rare event. Since it actually happened this past weekend, it’s good that all outlets accurately included rain in our forecast. It came down to temperatures, then, with WeatherNation claiming victory thanks in large part to having the coolest overnight low temperatures in the forecast. Points for boldness, going cool in a typically warm place.
Actuals: Saturday – .01 inches of rain, High 56, Low 38
Sunday – .03 inches of rain, High 53, Low 36

Grade: C

Near record breaking snow

This is one of the snowiest Februaries on record in western Washington. There were successive rounds of heavy snow surrounding the weekend, and we were lucky enough to forecast for Olympia for the second one. Temperatures were wild, as they often are when looking at mountain snow storms, and the precipitation was very heavy. There were 2 inches of liquid precipitation over the course of Sunday and Monday, though the airport didn’t address total accumulations. The Seattle NWS office had a report of over 9 inches 4 miles north of Olympia, though, indicating that this storm was a doozy (and that Victoria-Weather may have been on to something with our aggressive precipitation forecasts). Unfortunately, it came down to temperatures, and WeatherBug ended up rounding up a victory, as their typically cold bias paid off.
Actuals: Sunday – .24″ of precipitation, High 34, Low 5
Monday – 1.72″ of precipitation, High 38, Low 31

Grade: C-D

A sloppy day in Iowa City

Last week was a messy one in the Upper Midwest. In Minnesota, there was a whole lot of snow, followed by plummeting temperatures, but in Iowa, there wasn’t as much overall precipitation, and what fell was much more complicated. Official observations reported mixed precipitation both Wednesday and Thursday in Iowa City, with a bent towards snow on Thursday, but mixed with little ice. Given how gnarly the weather ended up being, the forecasts were ultimately not so bad. The forecasts were all unanimous in their prediction for mixed precipitation, and for the most part the temperatures were pretty ok. The one thing that was the same in Iowa as Minnesota was the precipitous drop in temperature when all was said and done. That’s tough to forecast, but it was done well, and no better than by WeatherBug
Wednesday – .03 inches of precipitation High 32, Low 28
Thursday – .25 inches of precipitation, High 33, Low 4

Grade: B-F

Warm air succeeds

Lancaster was in the midst of a cold air damming situation when we looked at the city last weekend. A wave was moving into the Great Lakes, promising an influx of warmer conditions, but only if you believed one of the model outputs. Most every did believe the warming scenario, but perhaps not as passionately as the GFS. The GFS, it turned out, was on to something, as that model was close to the Monday high, but none of the outlets felt confident enough about forecasting that warm. Victoria-Weather was the closest, and won the forecast with ease.
Actuals: Sunday – High 44 Low 16
Monday – High 54, low 27

Grade: B-D

Tipping the scales

Bakersfield is a fairly dry town at the southern end of the Central California Valley, but the winter is the rainy season. January was going to be close to the monthly average for precipitation, but shy by about a tenth of an inch. Well, they got it and more on the 31st, collecting .41 inches of fresh rain, putting them over the average and further helping bust a long standing drought in the area. There was a trace that spilled into the 1st of February as well, That extra rain was beneficial to Bakersfield’s agricultural interests, but also to the National Weather Servicee who paired their precip forecasts with a quality temperature outlook and earned the victory in Bakersfield.
Actuals: Thursday – .41 inches of rain High 61, Low 49
Friday – rain reported, but not measured, High 64, Low 45

Grade: A-C

Trouble barrels in

There was a little bowling ball of low pressure in the North Pacific late last week that was prepared to barrel into the San Francisco Bay area. We knew from the beginning that it could go sideways on us a bit and throw off ourr forecast in Napa. Only one outlet, Weatherbug, suspected it would get weird the way it did: by arriving a full day early. Rain was reported on both Tuesday and Wednesday, which was a surprise to the other outlets. Weatherbug would have won with their temperatures, but secured it thanks to having the only correct precipitation forecast.
Actuals: Tuesday – rain reported but not measured, High 61, Low 45
Wednesday – rain reported but not measured High 64, Low 51

Grade: B-D

Weather Wayback… Winning the Big Game

Almost a year ago, Anthony put together a forecast for Port St. Lucie, Florida on the night of the Super Bowl. Not only was the game a down to the wire, tightly contested struggle, the forecast as a nip and tuck battle as well. There had been rain during the game in south Florida, but it was out of the picture by Monday morning, which allowed Victoria-Weather to claim a win, just like the Eagles.
Actuals: February 5th, High 73, Low 53
February 6th, High 77, Low 64

Grade: C-D

Weather Wayback… more tolerable winter

As we sit waiting for a terrible outbreak of cold to get only colder, we will reminisce to nearly a year ago, back to a forecast for Toledo, Ohio, which straddled the transition from January to February. It had been in the low 40s at the time, and would start to get colder with a wave moving through the region. A warm front would sustain the 40s for a day, with a cold front then bringing much chillier temperatures for February. Toledo ducked any precipitation, but they were unable to avoid the cold air. It was 10 degrees by the time the 1st became the 2nd. Heck, that’s 20 degrees warmer than it is at Victoria-Weather Headquarters right now. Back in 2018, The Weather Channel, the only dry forecast, ended up with the top forecast.
Actuals: January 31st, High 43, Low 23
February 1st, High 38, Low 10

Grade: B-C

No need for drama

Waco was potentially in line for the first wave of severe weather of the year late last week. The storm that moved through the country did produce some severe storms, though they popped up further to the east, in Mississippi and Louisiana, and did so over the weekend, instead of our Thursday/Friday forecast period. Accuweather was the most doom and gloom for their forecast, and perhaps feels a bit silly, but their temperature forecast kept them and most outlets in the race. Actually, those temperatures were a bit of a surprise as well, as clearing skies which arrived earlier than anticipated allowed temperatures to drop off to the low 40s, which was a full 10 degrees cooler than some outlets. It was Victoria-Weather that edged the crowd, though, and earned the victory for the day.
Actuals: Thursday, High 63, Low 41
Friday – High 67, Low 40

Grade: D.