St. Joseph, Missouri

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

St. Joseph is up river along the Missouri from Kansas City, and are eying some potentially significant weather as the weekend approached. Lets join them in eying the weather.

At 1053PM, CT, St. Joseph was reporting clear skies and a temperature of 60 degrees. The unusual warmth was a precursor to a strong area of low pressure developing in the High Plains, and threatening a busy end to the week. The strong surface feature will occlude fairly quickly. Expect it to be warm in St. Joseph tomorrow, however the leading edge of thunderstorms will develop along I-35 – east of St. Joseph – around mid afternoon tomorrow, but the colder air is expected to lag behind.
While strong thunderstorms are a possibility through much of Missouri, it is looking at this time that they will not bother St. Joseph. There is still a slight risk for severe storms, but most of the wet weather will be in the form of scattered showers in the evening. The leading edge of cold air will arrive in St. Joseph overnight, with a clearer and significantly cooler day on Saturday.
Tomorrow – Scattered showers and storms late, windy and starting to cool off in the evening, High 73, Low 57
Saturday – Clearing and colder, High 57, Low 38

TWC: Tomorrow – Windy with periods of thunderstorms later in the day. A few storms may be severe. High 78, Low 54
Saturday – Considerable cloudiness. high 54, Low 38

AW: Tomorrow – Winds becoming strong; very warm with times of clouds and sun, a strong afternoon thunderstorm; storms can bring damaging winds, large hail and even a tornado High 76, Low 55
Saturday – Windy and cooler with times of clouds and sun; strong winds can cause localized power outages; secure loose objects High 55, Low 37

NWS: Tomorrow – A chance of showers after 3pm. Mostly sunny,  High 78, Low 58
Saturday – Partly sunny, (Showers before 1) High 58, Low 41

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny. A chance of showers in the afternoon. High 78, Low 57
Saturday – Partly sunny and breezy. High 57, Low 43

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy with scattered showers, High 78, Low 58
Saturday – Partly cloudy with showers, High 58, Low 41

CLI: Tomorrow – Thunderstorm High 78, Low 55
Saturday – Overcast High 55, Low 38

St. Joseph will get none of the noise from tomorrow’s storms, but will get the cold air behind it. The calm before storm, literally, is pretty calm.

San Luis Obispo, California

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

One of the longest named towns in our repertoire gets to host this late February forecast. The name may be the longest part of it.

At 1256PM, PT, San Luis Obispo was reporting clear skies and a brisk northwest wind. Despite the onshore flow, temperatures remained at 63, with a little more room to warm further. Low pressure in the Rockies is continuing to be tied to a feature in the Pacific Northwest, which is allowing for broadly onshore flow as far south as SLO.
A thermal ridge will emerge late in the forecast period, which will contribute to a bit of a warm up, but flow will continue to to be onshore, moderating temperatures through the early part of the work week.
Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 73, Low 47
Tuesday – A little morning fog, then sunny, High 74, Low 50

TWC: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy skies in the morning will give way to cloudy skies during the afternoon. High 72, Low 49
Tuesday – A few passing clouds, otherwise generally sunny. High 76, Low 51

AW: Tomorrow – Pleasant with plenty of sun; breezy in the afternoon High 70, Low 47
Tuesday – Warm with plenty of sun High 77, Low 52

NWS: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 73, Low 52
Tuesday – Mostly sunny, High 73, Low 52

WB: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, except for patchy low clouds and fog in the morning. Fog locally dense with visibility of 1/4 mile or less, High 65, Low 52
Tuesday – Partly cloudy in the morning, then sunny, High 74, Low 53

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 72, Low 53
Tuesday – Mostly sunny, High 72, Low 53

CLI – Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy, High 73, Low 47
Tuesday – Sunny, High 75, Low 50

Weatherbug is very sure of fog tonight, and has a very different forecast. But alas, no marine layer on satellite.

Columbus, Indiana

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We’re taking a look at one of the three Columbuses we have in our system, and the only one that I’ve had the pleasure of passing through in person.

At 245PM, ET, Columbus was reporting a temperature of 19 degrees with clear skies and a steady west wind. High pressure was building into the area, however a weak wave riding the forward edge of this ridge brought a few flakes to the region through the overnight, and the accumulated inch or so may be helping keep temperatures a degree or two cooler.
High pressure is going to remain in place for the next couple of days, building in from the west. While there is a weak thermal trough embedded in this ridge, it won’t be enough to slow down the warm up coming for Columbus this weekend. Expect a fairly pleasant weekend with sunny skies.
Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 32, Low 10
Saturday – Mostly sunny, High 34, Low 17

TWC: Tomorrow – Sunshine and clouds mixed. Very cold High 32, Low 10
Saturday – Sunshine and clouds mixed. High 36, Low 14

AW: Tomorrow – Plenty of sunshine, but cold; a warmup is on the way High 33, Low 8
Saturday – Chilly with periods of clouds and sunshine High 38, Low 16

NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 32, Low 9
Saturday – Mostly sunny High 35, Low 15

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, not as cold, High 26, Low 11
Saturday – Partly cloudy in the morning, then clearing, High 33, Low 16

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 31, Low 8
Saturday – Partly cloudy, High 34, Low 16

CLI: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 30, Low 9
Saturday – Sunny, High 35, Low 11

The Weather Channel says it’s going to be “very cold” tomorrow, while Weatherbug, with a cooler forecast, says “not as cold.” Perspective! Satellite shows some lingering clouds, and some lingering snow on the ground.

Sandusky, Ohio

Ryan Henning 2 Comments

The Great Lakes during a cold stretch in February, in the midst of some breezy conditions in the region. I have a pretty good guess on how things are going.

At 1053AM, ET, the Sandusky area was seeing clear skies and a temperature of 16 degrees. There were a few flurries throughout the region, thanks to lingering westerly winds. Another gnarly storm system is bringing heavy rain to the southeastern US. This is adding some moisture to the region, but by tonight, will inhibit flow into a trough moving into the region.
The trough is weak, and riding the front edge of a strong ridge in the center of the country. It will bring a few flurries to Sandusky overnight and into the early morning tomorrow. The wind in the area may lead to some lake effect flurries that last into the early afternoon, but high pressure will squash the moisture out of the region by Friday. Expect sunny skies as the weekend rolls in.
Tomorrow – A few flurries, perhaps accumulating to an inch, wrapping up in the afternoon. High 24, Low 13
Friday – Clearing and a bit warmer, High 27, Low 15

TWC: Tomorrow – Cloudy with snow showers mainly during the morning High 22, low 14
Friday – Cloudy. Very cold. High 27, Low 15

AW: Tomorrow – Very cold with snow and flurries at times, accumulating a coating to an inch, becoming breezy in the afternoon; roads could be slippery for the morning commute High 21, Low 13
Friday – Quite cold with low clouds; a warmup is on the way High 26, Low 15

NWS: Tomorrow – A chance of snow showers, mainly before 11am. Cloudy, High 22, low 14
Friday – Partly sunny High 27, Low 12

WB: Tomorrow – Cloudy. A chance of snow showers mainly in the morning. Snow accumulation up to 1 inch possible. High 20, Low 15
Friday – Partly sunny, High 24, low 18

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with snow showers, High 22, Low 14
Friday – Partly cloudy, High 27, Low 13

CLI: Tomorrow – Heavy snow showers, High 21, Low 13
Friday – Overcast, High 26, Low 14

Given that it was -11 here this morning, the third double digit below zero morning in a row, it’s funny to see multiple outlets refer to the mid 20s as “cold”, needing to call it out like that. The radar shows an impressive amount of coverage, but it won’t add much in terms of accumulation.

Lebanon, Pennsylvania

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

After some pretty disastrous forecasting results to start the year, I am hoping that a return to the eastern US will give our outlets a bit better fortune. Of course that only works if the weather is quiet. That doesn’t look to be the case…

At 955PM, ET, Lebanon was reporting a temperature of 35 degrees with fog. The entirety of southeastern Pennsylvania was blanketed by fog in the wake of a cold front that was reaching the South Jersey coast. Low pressure has shifted into New England, with clearing air behind the boundary. Tonight, however, the lingering low level moisture and cooling air is fostering the low visibility in the region.
Friday will be brisk, but dry at the surface. With clearer skies tomorrow, expect the daily low at midnight, leading to Saturday. The strong seasonal jet is continuing to run west to east through the Ohio Valley into the mid Atlantic. The jet features many streaks, so even though the flow is laminar, redevelopment of surface features is ongoing. Low pressure will reemerge in the Plains and start lifting a warm front towards Lebanon by Saturday afternoon. Some wet snow may fall initially, but it will be followed by an icy mix.
Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 37, low 26
Saturday – Snow starts in the afternoon, and turns to a wintry mix. High 34, Low 22

TWC Tomorrow – Intervals of clouds and sunshine. High 38, Low 24
Saturday – Cloudy. Snow showers developing in the afternoon High 34, Low 21

AW: Tomorrow – Sunny to partly cloudy and windy; High 39, Low 26
Saturday – Cloudy with a coating to an inch of snow and sleet late in the afternoon; deteriorating travel conditions at nigh High 36, Low 23

NWS: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 35, Low 26
Saturday – A chance of snow before 4pm, then a chance of snow and sleet. Mostly cloudy, High 35, Low 22

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 37, Low 26
Saturday – Mostly cloudy, a chance of snow, freezing rain an sleet in the afternoon, High 34, Low 25

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 34, Low 26
Saturday – Mostly cloudy with a chance of sleet/snow High 35, Low 23

CLI: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 37, Low 22
Saturday – Blowing snow, High 38, Low 20

The system that left the fog left ice this morning. Sub optimal to be expecting it again so soon.

Colorado Springs, Colorado

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We’ve been out east for quite some time, so to conclude January, we are going to the Front Range to see what is going on in the Mountain Time Zone.

At 1254PM, MT, Colorado Springs was reporting a temperature of 47 degrees with clear skies. Flow was scattered throughout the region, but upsloping a bit near Colorado Springs, making it the cold spot in the area. The pattern right now is rather outsized, with a deep area of low pressure in the mid-Atlantic, and another large feature moving into the Pacific Northwest. Expect some dampening to the pattern over the weekend, however.
The feature in the northwest will start pressing into the northern Rockies, putting eastern Colorado into a warm sector, though more upsloping may prevent Colorado Springs from getting as warm as the atmosphere would otherwise allow. By Sunday, a westerly flow will arrive, thanks to jet support flattening out. Warm air already in place will remain in southeastern Colorado, while precipitation will be stowed in Big Sky Country, leaving Colorado Springs a nice weekend.
Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy, High 51, Low 28
Sunday – Partly cloudy, High 57, Low 30

TWC: Tomorrow – Intervals of clouds and sunshine. High 55, Low 35
Tomorrow – Partly cloudy skies. High 60, Low 36

AW: Tomorrow – Mild with times of clouds and sun High 61, Low 33
Sunday – Mild with sun through high clouds High 66, Low 38

NWS: Tomorrow – Partly sunny, High 55, Low 28
Sunday – Mostly sunny, High 58, Low 33

WB: Tomorrow – Partly sunny, High 49, Low 26
Sunday – Partly sunny, High 57, Low 31

WN: tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 55, Low 28
Sunday – Partly cloudy, High 57, Low 36

CLI: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy, High 54, Low 31
Sunday – Partly cloudy, High 60, Low 36

Man, temperatures are all over the map, aren’t they? I’m feeling a little bit uneasy about going any higher tomorrow, but temperatures today are having such a tough time getting any warmer, so I’m going to live with it. Here is the satellite, with some low clouds north of the Palmer Divide, and some higher stuff back in the western Colorado Rockies.

New Orleans, Louisiana

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2025 is off to a hell of a start in the Big Easy, where it seems that nothing is easy anymore. 2025 also marks 20 years since Katrina changed the city forever, but more recently, we saw 10 inches of snow in parts of the city. We also know now that in 2 weeks the Eagles, Chiefs and fans of the NFL are going to be in town, praying that the weather isn’t among the headlines.

At 1053PM, CT, New Orleans was reporting mostly cloudy skies with a temperature of 60 degrees. A light southeasterly flow was feeding into a developing boundary running roughly from Brookhaven, Mississippi to Deridder. Showers were running astride of the boundary, but there was a heavier thunderstorm north of Lake Charles, approaching Kinder. The boundary is just that, a boundary and isn’t truly tied to an organized area of low pressure, but a perturbation taking advantage of a little bit of dissonance in the jet aloft. The rainfall in central Louisiana will reach New Orleans shortly after sunrise, but won’t be terribly threatening, beyond some scattered showers through the morning, and overcast in the evening.
A long wave, low amplitude ridge is building back into the western Gulf Coast. This will likely mean a bit of a meandering surface flow and some coastal fog south of New Orleans, but quiet weather in town.
Tomorrow – Showers early, then becoming mostly cloudy. High 65, Low 57
Tuesday – Mostly cloudy, High 63, Low 48

TWC: Tomorrow – Cloudy. Slight chance of a rain shower.  High 63, Low 56
Tuesday – Considerable cloudiness. High 62, Low 49

AW: Tomorrow – A thick cloud cover with a couple of showers High 64, Low 55
Tuesday – Low clouds, High 62, Low 48

NWS: Tomorrow – A 40 percent chance of showers before 9am. Cloudy, then gradually becoming mostly sunny, High 64, Low 54
Tuesday -Mostly cloudy, 62, Low 48

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers in the morning then partly sunny in the afternoon, High 63, Low 56
Tuesday – Mostly cloudy in the morning then becoming partly sunny, High 61, Low 54

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy with showers, High 63 Low 55
Tuesday – Mostly cloudy, High 61, Low 48

CLI: Tomorrow – Light rain showers, High 65, Low 56
Tuesday – Mostly cloudy, High 63, Low 48

Liquid precipitation is something most folks in Louisiana can understand. Here comes some now!

Holland, Michigan

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

Finally, we are getting a forecast at a site that one actually expects to see winter weather in. Does that mean we will see winter weather in the forecast? That remains to be seen.

At 453PM, ET, Holland was reporting mostly sunny skies with a temperature of 35 degrees. A trough moving through James Bay was producing a bit of snowfall in Ontario, but more significantly in lower Michigan, it had snapped a cold spell and brought temperatures that are sneaking above freezing this afternoon. The fetch off Lake Michigan is weak, and as the trough passes through this evening, snow is not expected for Holland’s portion of Western Michigan.
On a larger scale, a strong jet trough extended from the Great Lakes westward to California. A strak running from Yukon to western Ontario threatened to crosscut an elongated stream from the Baja Peninsula to Louisiana and northeast to the Mid-Atlantic. A strong area of low pressure will slide from the Northwest Territories to the Northern Great Lakes through the period, initially increasing winds generally for Michigan, and then ultimately setting up a westerly fetch off of Lake Michigan as a cold front approaches from the north. This will unfold on Monday afternoon and evening, leading to a messy afternoon commute, and the chance for some accumulation Monday night.
Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, breezy, High 29, Low 21
Monday – Increasing clouds with snow possible late, up to an inch possible, High 34, Low 22

TWC: Tomorrow – Cloudy early with partial sunshine expected late. High 29, Low 22
Monday – Windy. Snow showers developing in the afternoon. High 36, Low 23

AW: Tomorrow – Breezy and colder with clouds giving way to some sun High 27, Low 21
Monday – Very windy; cloudy and not as cold with a flurry in the afternoon; expect travel delays and power outages; secure loose objects and prepare for ice shoves High 36, Low 24

NWS: Tomorrow – Cloudy, then gradually becoming mostly sunny, High 27, Low 21
Monday – A 30 percent chance of snow showers after 1pm. Increasing clouds High 35, Low 25

WB: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 28, Low 24
Monday – Windy. Sunny until midday then partly sunny with a 30 percent chance of snow showers in the afternoon, High 35, Low 23

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy, High 27, Low 22
Monday – Windy with snow showers possible, High 35, Low 23

CLI: Tomorrow – Overcast, High 32, Low 22
Monday – Heavy Snow showers, High 36, Low 23

Clearly, Clime sees something stronger (and warmer) than the rest of us. There is precipitation showing up on radar in lower Michigan, but it isn’t being noted in any observations.

Chattanooga, Tennessee

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

It’s been a full week since I’ve been around (sorry, Christmas celebrations are still ongoing for me!) and things look very similar. Fires are still a threat in southern California, and very cold conditions remain in the eastern part of the country. One interesting wrinkle is the record breaking snow on the Gulf Coast and east to the Carolinas. Chattanooga was too far north to get clipped by that blizzard.

At 139PM, ET, Chattanooga was reporting a brisk west wind and a temperature of 48 degrees. Warmer air was returning to this part of the country, where snow did not fall, but chilly conditions were still in place in nearly every other direction. Some atmospheric turbulence reported by pilots indicates a strong, contorted jet in the area is indicative of a narrow trough over Appalachia. All that said, surface conditions were dominated by high pressure.
The strong jet over the southeastern US is beginning to split into parallel streams. This will help things get a bit warmer in Chattanooga, though not terribly warm, and keep things pretty stable through the weekend. Eventually, return flow will start to draw moisture into the Texas/Louisiana border area, which will start building east at the upper levels, following the course of the jet, increasing cloud cover as the work week approaches.
Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 49, Low 26
Sunday – Increasing clouds late, high 45, Low 29

TWC: Tomorrow – Generally sunny despite a few afternoon clouds. High 49, Low 22
Sunday – Mostly cloudy skies.  High 45, Low 31

AW: Tomorrow – Sun and some clouds High 51, Low 20
Sunday – Mainly cloudy High 47 low 29

NWS: Tomorrow – Increasing clouds, High 48, Low 23
Sunday – Mostly cloudy, High 46, Low 30

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 46, low 24
Sunday – Partly sunny, High 48, Low 31

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 47, Low 26
Sunday – Mostly cloudy with light wintry mix, High 45, low 32

CLI: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 49, Low 23
Sunday – Overcast, High 44, Low 29

WeatherNation is swinging for the fences with their wintry mix on Sunday, aren’t they? What do the locals say about it?

Gulfport, Mississippi

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

This is it, friends, the first individual forecast of the year. Off to the Gulf Coast, and hopefully some warm temperatures.

At 1253PM, CT, Gulfport was reporting a temperature of 48 degrees with clear skies. This will not last, however. Scattered showers are moving through Louisiana, the vanguard of a system developing off the Texas coast near Corpus Christi. A sharp upper level trough is going to aid the development of this feature, which will temporarily slow it down, but will ultimately give the storm a bit of a jolt. Fortunately, Gulfport looks to be far enough south to evade the snow and ice this storm will bring, but still chilly enough to avoid severe weather.
Warm air will lift north at the leading edge of the system, and the onshore flow will almost certainly led to a stray shower overnight in Gulfport. The heavy rain associated with the core of the area of low pressure will arrive in Gulfport around mid-morning, and may feature a thunderstorm or two. By the time it passes southern Mississippi, the feature will have some momentum, and will make a hard charge through th region, exiting later in the evening on Friday, and leading to an even cooler Saturday. Fortunately, with a little bit of sunshine, Gulfport should bounce back to something closer to comfortable.
Tomorrow – Rain, heavy at times with some thunder in the morning. Wrapping up in the evening, getting chilly late, High 60, Low 40
Saturday – Increasing sun, cooler, High 51, Low 37

TWC: Tomorrow – Windy with a steady rain in the morning. Showers continuing in the afternoon. Potential for heavy rainfall.  High 57, low 41
Saturday – Intervals of clouds and sunshine. High 51, low 35

AW: Tomorrow – Turning colder in the morning; windy with rain High 58, Low 43
Saturday – Partial sunshine, High 52, Low 36

NWS: Tomorrow – Showers High 62, low 40
Saturday – Partly sunny High 48, Low 35

WB: Tomorrow – Showers, mainly in the morning. Locally heavy rainfall possible in the morning. High 55, Low 38
Saturday – Mostly cloudy in the morning, then becoming mostly sunny, High 50, Low 36

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with showers, High 61, Low 39
Saturday – Partly cloudy, High 46, low 36

CLI: Tomorrow – Rain Showers, High 61, Low 44
Saturday – Sunny, High 51, Low 36

Believe it or not, not all of our forecasters put Tomorrow’s low at midnight headed into Friday. Temperatures should plateau there for a bit, and perhaps not necessarily any cooler than they will be tomorrow morning, ahead of the surge of warmer air before the rain. Did someone say rain? Here is some rain arriving in Louisiana.