Elmira, New York

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

Elmira is just north of the Pennsylvania border, and usually just to the south of the Lake effect bands of snow. Hopefully in April, we are done with Lake effect!

At 653PM ET, Elmira was reporting a temperature of 41 degrees with clear skies. There was a brisk north wind, flowing toward a boundary connecting a feature in the Gulf Stream to a large feature in the Plains. The evidence of the boundary, however was a wisp of clouds down around Norfolk, and a temperature gradient that sharpened near the Mason-Dixon Line.
The boundary will function as a warm front by tomorrow, lifting into the Mid-Atlantic and bringing some significant rain through the area tomorrow evening. Elmira will be within the warm sector by Thursday morning, but overcast and scattered showers will damper some of the enjoyment. Action along the front will be found most prominently much further downstream along the cold front, which will move sluggishly through Elmira in the evening, and won’t result in a precipitous drop off in temperature in the evening.
Tomorrow – Increasing clouds with rain, heavy at times in the evening, High 47, Low 23
Thursday – Cloudy, warmer with some showers, High 71, Low 42

TWC: Tomorrow – Cloudy with occasional showers for the afternoon. High 49, Low 27
Thursday – Rain showers early with overcast skies later in the day. High 73, Low 43

AW: Tomorrow – Considerable cloudiness, becoming breezy in the afternoon with a couple of showers late High 48, Low 24
Thursday – Cloudy, breezy and warmer with a couple of showers and a thunderstorm, mainly early in the day High 77, Low 44

NWS: Tomorrow – Showers likely, mainly after 4pm. Mostly cloudy High 52, Low 26
Thursday – Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm. Cloudy High 75, Low 46

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy. Rain showers likely in the afternoon. High 52, Low 30
Thursday – Showers likely. High 72, Low 42

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with a light wintry mix possible, High 51, Low 27
Thursday – Mostly cloudy with light showers and isolated storms, High 73, Low 46

CLI: Tomorrow – Rain showers, High 49, Low 24
Thursday – Rain Showers, High 76, Low 44

Man, distractions and life got in the way, and this one took a while to finish up. But here is the initial satellite showing the band of clouds around Hampton Roads.

Pine Bluff, Arkansas

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

Arkansas doesn’t get thought about as a severe weather center, despite the location between both the original Tornado Alley and the Dixie Alley. It can be a stormy place, Arkansas, when March rolls around. It sure has been today.

At 953 PM, CT, Pine Bluff was reporting a temperature of 77 degrees with fair skies. Thunder was beginning to depart Arkansas, however the cold front hadn’t yet reached Pine Bluff. Little Rock’s dew point was dropping, and there were waning showers and isolated storms between Pine Bluff and the capital. The severe storms have moved out, however.
After the boundary moves through, an initial pool of cooler air will spill in, and be reinforced by a shallow upper level ridge. This will scuttle a dramatic cooldown, and the next major storm developing in the Plains will kick off a warm up by mid week.
Tomorrow – Clearing and cooler, High 70, Low 53
Tuesday – Mostly sunny, High 77, Low 45

TWC: Tomorrow – A mainly sunny sky (Early storms). High 71, Low 53
Tuesday – Partly cloudy skies. High 77, Low 46

AW: Tomorrow – Cooler and less humid with sunshine (early storms); High 71, Low 56
Tuesday – Sunny to partly cloudy and pleasant High 78, Low 47

NWS: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy through mid morning, then gradual clearing (early storms) High 69, Low 53
Tuesday – Mostly sunny,  High 77, Low 46

WB: Tomorrow – Sunny, (early rain) High 69, Low 59
Tuesday – Mostly sunny. High 76, Low 49

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny (early storms), High 69, Low 55
Tuesday – Mostly sunny, High 75, Low 47

CLI: Tomorrow – Sunny (early rain) High 70, Low 54
Tuesday – Partly cloudy High 77, Low 48

My forecast counterparts all have a chance for more storms tonight, but it has really quieted in Arkansas (though a cell popped up near Stuttgart just as I finished). The roughest weather in Arkansas today was found up by Jonesboro and Memphis.

Rockford, Illinois

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

Made some updates on the back end tonight, so I hope there are no interruptions, because I am a meteorologist, and not an HTML guy! We’ll find out together!

At 1054PM, CT, Rockford was reporting a temperature of 33 degrees with mostly fair skies. Temperatures will continue to cool below freezing overnight, given the clear skies, however a batch of precipitation is rotating through eastern Iowa on the far western periphery of the influence of a broad upper level trough. These showers will not impact Rockford tonight, but a few clouds would arrest the overnight cool down, albeit momentarily.
Flow tomorrow will be from the northwest. A weak feature in the southern part of Hudson Bay will work up a few more clouds, particularly by tomorrow afternoon, with some light rain possible during the early morning on Thursday. This will be the signal that an unseasonably warm ridge is sliding into the area, and ushering in a warm end of the week.
Tomorrow – Increasing clouds. High 57, Low 30
Thursday – Early morning rain, otherwise mostly cloudy, High 59, Low 38

TWC: Tomorrow – Intervals of clouds and sunshine. High 57, Low 29
Thursday – Overcast (early rain). High 58, Low 40

AW: Tomorrow – Partly sunny; a warmup is on the way High 56, Low 29
Thursday – Cloudy with a bit of rain; breezy in the afternoon High 54, Low 39

NWS: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, (Early rain) High 55, Low 31
Thursday – A 40 percent chance of showers, mainly before 1pm. High 55, Low 40

WB: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy High 56, Low 32
Thursday – Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers mainly in the morning High 55, Low 43

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy with a light wintry mix, High 55, Low 31
Thursday – Mostly cloudy with scattered showers, High 55, Low 41

CLI: Tomorrow – Light rain showers High 56, Low 31
Thursday – Overcast High 58, Low 38

When I say a warm start to the weekend, I’m talking “close to 80” warm, which is very nice in March. It won’t last, of course, as it never does. A lot of forecasts for rain on Wednesday, despite a pretty unblemished satellite.

Fort Walton Beach, Florida

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

Were heading for the Panhandle as spring is beginning to emerge nationwide. A reminder that the Florida Panhandle is more aligned with the American Southeast than it is with Peninsular Florida, where the weather is concerned. Let’s see how that plays into the forecast.

At 1255AM, ET, Fort Walton Beach was reporting a temperature of 64 degrees with clear skies. Temperatures dropped significantly just inland, and the warm air drifting ashore suggested the potential for some fog in the morning, especially with dew points nearly matching the air temperature. Strong low pressure in the Plains is belaboring the pattern, which would otherwise be counterintuitive, given the temperature dynamics.
A strong trough in the Plains is going to allow surface low pressure to intensify and shift to the northeast, all the while pulling in more warm Gulf air to the Panhandle. The day tomorrow will be warm and humid, however a cold front will arrive in Fort Walton Beach early on Thursday, bringing a chance for some light showers and a notably cooler day to follow.
Tomorrow – Warm with some morning haze, High 73, Low 59
Thursday – Morning showers, then clearing and cooler, High 66, Low 50

TWC: Tomorrow – Sunshine and some clouds High 73, Low 58
Thursday – Mostly sunny (Early rain), High 68, Low 52

AW: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, breezy and pleasant; great day to be outside High 75, Low 57
Thursday – Sunny and windy (Early rain) High 68, Low 54

NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 74, Low 55
Thursday – Partly sunny, then gradually becoming sunny, (Early rain) High 67, Low 50

WB: Tomorrow – Sunny. (Late showers) High 72, Low 62
Thursday – Sunny cooler. Less humid (Early rain) High 67, Low 50

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny (Late rain), High 74, Low 57
Thursday – Mostly sunny (Early rain), High 64, low 51

CLI: Tomorrow – Clear High 74, Low 56
Thursday – Sunny (Early rain) High 67, Low 46

Thursday, after the frontal passage, is expected to be non standard. Surprise! We have a bit of cloud debris collecting on the Mississippi Delta. Will this spread? I suspect it will.

Hanford, California

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

Our forecast today takes us to the Central Valley of California, where the weather may not provide the reprieve you typically expect.

At 1253PM, Hanford was reporting a clear skies and a temperature of 62 degrees. Northern California, particularly at the higher terrain is under advisories for high wind and snow. At the lower terrain, a trough moving ashore from the Pacific Northwestern coast will carry a significant feature with it. The associated cold front will slide into central California with less fanfare, but will still introduce rain through the afternoon tomorrow.
The moisture will linger through the morning with more drizzle and fog to start Tuesday. A cooler morning, thanks to clouds and a northerly flow will result. Expect snow to persist in the mountains northeast of town for much longer. High pressure builds in by the end of the day across California.
Tomorrow – Rain likely in the afternoon, High 58, Low 45
Tuesday – Rain early, fog and clouds linger, High 60, Low 39

TWC: Tomorrow – Cloudy with periods of rain.  High 55, Low 48
Tuesday – Sunny skies (early rain).  High 62, Low 41

AW: Tomorrow – Times of clouds and sun with a couple of showers and a thunderstorm; cool; gusty winds and small hail can accompany any downpour High 62, Low 50
Tuesday – Cool with clouds giving way to sun High 63, Low 39

NWS: Tomorrow – Rain before 2pm, then showers and possibly a thunderstorm after 2pm. High 60, Low 49
Tuesday – Sunny High 62, Low 40

WB: Tomorrow – Rain in the morning then rain showers in the afternoon. High 55, Low 48
Tuesday – Sunny (early rain). High 60, Low 43

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with rain and isolated storms, High 57, Low 50
Tuesday – Mostly sunny, High 61, Low 42

CLI: Tomorrow – Thunderstorm, High 59, Low 48
Tuesday – Sunny, High 60, Low 39

Some differing opinions on the rain for central California, which opens the possibility of an interesting verification. Some clouds showing up to the north, a precursor to what’s coming.

St. Joseph, Missouri

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

St. Joseph is up river along the Missouri from Kansas City, and are eying some potentially significant weather as the weekend approached. Lets join them in eying the weather.

At 1053PM, CT, St. Joseph was reporting clear skies and a temperature of 60 degrees. The unusual warmth was a precursor to a strong area of low pressure developing in the High Plains, and threatening a busy end to the week. The strong surface feature will occlude fairly quickly. Expect it to be warm in St. Joseph tomorrow, however the leading edge of thunderstorms will develop along I-35 – east of St. Joseph – around mid afternoon tomorrow, but the colder air is expected to lag behind.
While strong thunderstorms are a possibility through much of Missouri, it is looking at this time that they will not bother St. Joseph. There is still a slight risk for severe storms, but most of the wet weather will be in the form of scattered showers in the evening. The leading edge of cold air will arrive in St. Joseph overnight, with a clearer and significantly cooler day on Saturday.
Tomorrow – Scattered showers and storms late, windy and starting to cool off in the evening, High 73, Low 57
Saturday – Clearing and colder, High 57, Low 38

TWC: Tomorrow – Windy with periods of thunderstorms later in the day. A few storms may be severe. High 78, Low 54
Saturday – Considerable cloudiness. high 54, Low 38

AW: Tomorrow – Winds becoming strong; very warm with times of clouds and sun, a strong afternoon thunderstorm; storms can bring damaging winds, large hail and even a tornado High 76, Low 55
Saturday – Windy and cooler with times of clouds and sun; strong winds can cause localized power outages; secure loose objects High 55, Low 37

NWS: Tomorrow – A chance of showers after 3pm. Mostly sunny,  High 78, Low 58
Saturday – Partly sunny, (Showers before 1) High 58, Low 41

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny. A chance of showers in the afternoon. High 78, Low 57
Saturday – Partly sunny and breezy. High 57, Low 43

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy with scattered showers, High 78, Low 58
Saturday – Partly cloudy with showers, High 58, Low 41

CLI: Tomorrow – Thunderstorm High 78, Low 55
Saturday – Overcast High 55, Low 38

St. Joseph will get none of the noise from tomorrow’s storms, but will get the cold air behind it. The calm before storm, literally, is pretty calm.

San Luis Obispo, California

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

One of the longest named towns in our repertoire gets to host this late February forecast. The name may be the longest part of it.

At 1256PM, PT, San Luis Obispo was reporting clear skies and a brisk northwest wind. Despite the onshore flow, temperatures remained at 63, with a little more room to warm further. Low pressure in the Rockies is continuing to be tied to a feature in the Pacific Northwest, which is allowing for broadly onshore flow as far south as SLO.
A thermal ridge will emerge late in the forecast period, which will contribute to a bit of a warm up, but flow will continue to to be onshore, moderating temperatures through the early part of the work week.
Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 73, Low 47
Tuesday – A little morning fog, then sunny, High 74, Low 50

TWC: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy skies in the morning will give way to cloudy skies during the afternoon. High 72, Low 49
Tuesday – A few passing clouds, otherwise generally sunny. High 76, Low 51

AW: Tomorrow – Pleasant with plenty of sun; breezy in the afternoon High 70, Low 47
Tuesday – Warm with plenty of sun High 77, Low 52

NWS: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 73, Low 52
Tuesday – Mostly sunny, High 73, Low 52

WB: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, except for patchy low clouds and fog in the morning. Fog locally dense with visibility of 1/4 mile or less, High 65, Low 52
Tuesday – Partly cloudy in the morning, then sunny, High 74, Low 53

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 72, Low 53
Tuesday – Mostly sunny, High 72, Low 53

CLI – Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy, High 73, Low 47
Tuesday – Sunny, High 75, Low 50

Weatherbug is very sure of fog tonight, and has a very different forecast. But alas, no marine layer on satellite.

Columbus, Indiana

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We’re taking a look at one of the three Columbuses we have in our system, and the only one that I’ve had the pleasure of passing through in person.

At 245PM, ET, Columbus was reporting a temperature of 19 degrees with clear skies and a steady west wind. High pressure was building into the area, however a weak wave riding the forward edge of this ridge brought a few flakes to the region through the overnight, and the accumulated inch or so may be helping keep temperatures a degree or two cooler.
High pressure is going to remain in place for the next couple of days, building in from the west. While there is a weak thermal trough embedded in this ridge, it won’t be enough to slow down the warm up coming for Columbus this weekend. Expect a fairly pleasant weekend with sunny skies.
Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 32, Low 10
Saturday – Mostly sunny, High 34, Low 17

TWC: Tomorrow – Sunshine and clouds mixed. Very cold High 32, Low 10
Saturday – Sunshine and clouds mixed. High 36, Low 14

AW: Tomorrow – Plenty of sunshine, but cold; a warmup is on the way High 33, Low 8
Saturday – Chilly with periods of clouds and sunshine High 38, Low 16

NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 32, Low 9
Saturday – Mostly sunny High 35, Low 15

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, not as cold, High 26, Low 11
Saturday – Partly cloudy in the morning, then clearing, High 33, Low 16

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 31, Low 8
Saturday – Partly cloudy, High 34, Low 16

CLI: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 30, Low 9
Saturday – Sunny, High 35, Low 11

The Weather Channel says it’s going to be “very cold” tomorrow, while Weatherbug, with a cooler forecast, says “not as cold.” Perspective! Satellite shows some lingering clouds, and some lingering snow on the ground.

Sandusky, Ohio

Ryan Henning 2 Comments

The Great Lakes during a cold stretch in February, in the midst of some breezy conditions in the region. I have a pretty good guess on how things are going.

At 1053AM, ET, the Sandusky area was seeing clear skies and a temperature of 16 degrees. There were a few flurries throughout the region, thanks to lingering westerly winds. Another gnarly storm system is bringing heavy rain to the southeastern US. This is adding some moisture to the region, but by tonight, will inhibit flow into a trough moving into the region.
The trough is weak, and riding the front edge of a strong ridge in the center of the country. It will bring a few flurries to Sandusky overnight and into the early morning tomorrow. The wind in the area may lead to some lake effect flurries that last into the early afternoon, but high pressure will squash the moisture out of the region by Friday. Expect sunny skies as the weekend rolls in.
Tomorrow – A few flurries, perhaps accumulating to an inch, wrapping up in the afternoon. High 24, Low 13
Friday – Clearing and a bit warmer, High 27, Low 15

TWC: Tomorrow – Cloudy with snow showers mainly during the morning High 22, low 14
Friday – Cloudy. Very cold. High 27, Low 15

AW: Tomorrow – Very cold with snow and flurries at times, accumulating a coating to an inch, becoming breezy in the afternoon; roads could be slippery for the morning commute High 21, Low 13
Friday – Quite cold with low clouds; a warmup is on the way High 26, Low 15

NWS: Tomorrow – A chance of snow showers, mainly before 11am. Cloudy, High 22, low 14
Friday – Partly sunny High 27, Low 12

WB: Tomorrow – Cloudy. A chance of snow showers mainly in the morning. Snow accumulation up to 1 inch possible. High 20, Low 15
Friday – Partly sunny, High 24, low 18

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with snow showers, High 22, Low 14
Friday – Partly cloudy, High 27, Low 13

CLI: Tomorrow – Heavy snow showers, High 21, Low 13
Friday – Overcast, High 26, Low 14

Given that it was -11 here this morning, the third double digit below zero morning in a row, it’s funny to see multiple outlets refer to the mid 20s as “cold”, needing to call it out like that. The radar shows an impressive amount of coverage, but it won’t add much in terms of accumulation.

Lebanon, Pennsylvania

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

After some pretty disastrous forecasting results to start the year, I am hoping that a return to the eastern US will give our outlets a bit better fortune. Of course that only works if the weather is quiet. That doesn’t look to be the case…

At 955PM, ET, Lebanon was reporting a temperature of 35 degrees with fog. The entirety of southeastern Pennsylvania was blanketed by fog in the wake of a cold front that was reaching the South Jersey coast. Low pressure has shifted into New England, with clearing air behind the boundary. Tonight, however, the lingering low level moisture and cooling air is fostering the low visibility in the region.
Friday will be brisk, but dry at the surface. With clearer skies tomorrow, expect the daily low at midnight, leading to Saturday. The strong seasonal jet is continuing to run west to east through the Ohio Valley into the mid Atlantic. The jet features many streaks, so even though the flow is laminar, redevelopment of surface features is ongoing. Low pressure will reemerge in the Plains and start lifting a warm front towards Lebanon by Saturday afternoon. Some wet snow may fall initially, but it will be followed by an icy mix.
Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 37, low 26
Saturday – Snow starts in the afternoon, and turns to a wintry mix. High 34, Low 22

TWC Tomorrow – Intervals of clouds and sunshine. High 38, Low 24
Saturday – Cloudy. Snow showers developing in the afternoon High 34, Low 21

AW: Tomorrow – Sunny to partly cloudy and windy; High 39, Low 26
Saturday – Cloudy with a coating to an inch of snow and sleet late in the afternoon; deteriorating travel conditions at nigh High 36, Low 23

NWS: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 35, Low 26
Saturday – A chance of snow before 4pm, then a chance of snow and sleet. Mostly cloudy, High 35, Low 22

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 37, Low 26
Saturday – Mostly cloudy, a chance of snow, freezing rain an sleet in the afternoon, High 34, Low 25

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 34, Low 26
Saturday – Mostly cloudy with a chance of sleet/snow High 35, Low 23

CLI: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 37, Low 22
Saturday – Blowing snow, High 38, Low 20

The system that left the fog left ice this morning. Sub optimal to be expecting it again so soon.