Hattiesburg, Mississippi

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

Hattiesburg is a part of the Jackson WFO, and in my opinion, this is the best Forecast Office in the country. That aside, let’s see if they are as good at forecasting as they are at web design.

At 1253AM, CT, Hattiesburg was reporting a temperature of 37 degrees with clear skies. The remnants of a strong system are continuing to clear out of the Ohio VAlley, but otherwise, the satellite remains clear east of the Rockies with a surface ridge building from the Gulf to the Great Lakes.
There continues to be a broad upper level trough, with the base running zonally along the US-Mexican border the northern Gulf, with an undercutting ridge providing the stability over the continental US. The base of the trough being as far south as it is simply for temperatures to remain a bit below normal, though the clear skies will help make up some of the difference in the afternoon.
Tomorrow – Sunny, High 70, Low 34
Sunday – Partly cloudy, High 73, Low 42

TWC: Tomorrow – Generally sunny despite a few afternoon clouds. 71,
Sunday – Partly cloudy skies. High 70, Low 44

AW: Tomorrow – Abundant sunshine, High 69, Low 36
Sunday – Partial sunshine High 70, Low 42

NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 69, Low 37
Sunday – Mostly sunny High 71, Low 42

WB: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 69, Low 38
Sunday – Mostly sunny im the morning, then becoming partly cloudy, High 69, Low 44

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, JHigh 69, Low 37
Sunday – Partly cloudy, High 71, Low 43

FIO: Tomorrow – Clear throughout the day. High 68, Low 37
Sunday – Partly cloudy throughout the day. High 72, Low 44

Here’s the satellite for this evening, showing off a very quiet Mississippi, and a quiet Mississippi Valley.

Rochester, New York

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

Things are pretty dicey in western New York. Yesterday’s Lake flooding alerts have turned to winter storm and blizzard warnings. My oh my, this should be an interesting forecast.

At 1007AM, ET, Rochester was reporting temperature of 25 degrees, but the thing everyone was surely noticing was the west wind at 33kt and light, wind driven snow. A strong area of low pressure lay over Ontario and Quebec, and on the south end of the system, the brisk west wind is leading to blizzard conditions east of Lakes Ontario and Erie, while Rochester, for the time being, is spared of the worst of this storm.
The upper level structure parenting this blizzard is asymmetrical, and that will be it’s undoing. With all the strength off shore, the central low pressure will weaken significantly and the brisk west winds and potential for snowfall will subside this afternoon and through tomorrow. The strong off shore jet will become associated with a laminar jet in the southern US, which will mean cold air will remain in western New York for the next few days. The orientation of the trough will subsequently foster northerly flow, which, while light, will create a fetch off of Lake Ontario that presents the possibility for Lake Effect accumulation in Rochester starting late Friday and lasting through Saturday.
Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with snow returning in the evening, High 28, low 20
Saturday – Persistent, wet snow, High 23, low 15

TWC: Tomorrow – Windy with snow showers in the afternoon High 27, low 21
Saturday – Overcast. A few flurries or snow showers possible High 23, Low 18

AW: Tomorrow – Windy, cold with blowing snow; cloudy with snow at times, accumulating a coating to an inch High 28, low 21
Saturday – Low clouds and cold with a flurry or two High 25, Low 17

NWS: Tomorrow – Snow showers likely, mainly between noon and 5pm, then snow after 5pm. Areas of blowing snow. High 26, Low 20
Saturday – Snow. High 23, Low 17

WB: Tomorrow – Snow showers in the morning, then lake effect snow in the afternoon. Areas of blowing snow. Accumulations of 1-2″ in the most persistent snows. Very windy and cold. High 26, low 21
Saturday – Lake effect snow, High 22, Low 19

WN: tomorrow – Windy with snow showers likely, High 26, Low 21
Saturday – Cloudy with light snow, High 23, Low 21

FIO: Tomorrow – Windy tonight and tomorrow morning. High 27, Low 19
Saturday – Foggy tomorrow night and in the morning. High 25, Low 17

Instead of the radar, like I would normally add when there is precipitation, I have included the satellite imagery from Canada. This is a big area of low pressure stretched across eastern Canada, but it’s not going to last much longer. It’s getting stretched to oblivion as we speak.

Columbia, South Carolina

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

The capital city of South Carolina is also home to the University of South Carolina, and will be ground zero to what already seems like an endless election cycle, with this weeks’ pending primary coming to town.

At 1256AM, ET, Columbia was reporting clear skies with a temperature of 31 degrees. High pressure dominated the area, and the clear skies will lead to chilly temperatures for the morning in South Carolina, but the weekend will end pleasantly.
Low pressure currently over the Four Corners is going to translate into the central Plains and continue eastward towards the Carolinas. It will deepen over Oklahoma, and develop some well defined warm and cold fronts. The warm front will emerge in central South Carolina by midday on Monday. Heavier showers and a stray thunderstorm will come to town in later in the day as the associated cold front arrives.
Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 63, Low 28
Monday – Rain through most of the day, starting in the morning, High 58, Low 43

TWC: Tomorrow – Partly to mostly cloudy, High 61, Low 30
Monday – Occasional light rain. High 53, Low 44

AW: Tomorrow – Sun followed by increasing clouds High 60, Low 29
Monday – Cloudy and cool with a touch of rain High 54, Low 45

NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 62, Low 27
Monday – Rain likely, mainly between 9am and 1pm, then showers after 1pm. High 56, Low 45

WB: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 58, Low 32
Monday – Rain likely in the morning then showers in the afternoon, High 53, Low 46

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 62, Low 27
Monday – Cloudy with light rain likely, High 56, Low 45

FIO: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy throughout the day, High 61, Low 30
Monday – Light rain starting in the morning

Monday is going to be a rainy day in Columbiam but there sure isn’t any sign of it on satellite.

Green Bay, Wisconsin

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

When you think of beachfront communities, I’m not sure Green Bay and Lake Michigan often come to mind. Northeast of Green Bay is Door County, though, which is an idyllic vacation spot. In the summer, though, probably not right now.

At 953AM, CT, Green Bay was reporting clear skies and a temperature of only 7 degrees. Clear dry air prevailed in the Dairy State thanks to the west winds, though some clouds were seen in the Upper Peninsula of Michigan thanks to flow coming off of Lake Superior, which has remained open this winter.
Surface high pressure is in control thanks to a broad trough lying along the southern third of the country. Unfortunately, with the jet as far south as it is, warm air is pinned in the Gulf, and the ridge is particularly chilly. A shortwave upper level trough is translating through the Great Lakes as well, functioning similarly to a thermal trough, though mostly because it is left without a source of moisture. Still, as it pivots away from the area, a warm up can be anticipated simply due to the increased sun angle as we approach spring.
Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 16, Low -4
Friday – Sunny and warmer, High 34, low 6

TWC: Tomorrow – Mainly sunny. High 15, Low -3
Friday – A mainly sunny sky high 33, Low 5

AW: Tomorrow – Very cold with plenty of sunshine High 16, Low -3
Friday – Not as cold with plenty of sun High 33, low 6

NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 16, Low -4
Friday – Sunny, High 32, low 5

WB: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 13, Low -3
Friday – Sunny, High 31, Low 6

WN: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 16, Low -4
Friday – Sunny, High 32, low 5

FIO: Tomorrow – Clear throughout the day. High 16, low -4
Friday – Windy in the afternoon and evening. High 33, Low 4

Brr! Ok, this is probably another reason most people don’t think of Green Bay and beaches. here is the satellite imagery. A lot of the white is actually snow on the ground, rather than clouds.

San Jose, California

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

The Bay Area of northern California is a complicated weather scene thanks to the water, the changing terrain and the fact that there isn’t a heck of a lot of data immediately to the west of there. Fingers crossed, models don’t fail us now!

At 1053AM, PT, San Jose was reporting a temperature of 58 degrees with mostly cloudy skies. The regional satellite showed off the jet stream through northern California, with some striated clouds moving through Nevada and Utah after passing the Sierras. The southern Bay just had a few patches of clouds that don’t look to have much staying power.
A surface ridge will build over the west coast over the next few days, further underscoring the stability in the region. The tail of a jet streak will press eastward, allowing a strong Pacific ridge to really put it’s mark on the area.
Tomorrow – Sunny, High 68, Low 46
Tuesday – Mostly sunny, High 68, Low 45

TWC: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 70, Low 46
Tuesday – Abundant sunshine. High 67, Low 44

AW: Tomorrow – Plenty of sunshine High 69, Low 46
Tuesday – Plenty of sunshine High 67, Low 42

NWS: Tomorrow – Cloudy through mid morning, then gradual clearing, High 69, Low 43
Tuesday – Sunny – High 68, Low 40

WB: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy in the morning, then becoming sunny, High 69, Low 45
Tuesday – Sunny, High 66, Low 43

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 69, Low 43
Tuesday – High 68, Low 40

FIO: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy throughout the day. High 68, Low 43
Tuesday – Partly cloudy throughout the day. High 67, Low 41

Here is a look at that satellite I mentioned. Pretty cool how apparent the jet stream is, if you ask me, a local weather nerd.

Salisbury, Maryland

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

To the Delmarva we go this evening, to the Eastern Shore of Maryland. Salisbury is the second largest town on the peninsula, after Dover. This is the first time Dover has been the biggest in any categorization.

AT 854PM, ET, Salisbury was reporting clear skies and a temperature of 50 degrees. There was a smattering of clouds to the west, over Appalachia, that were seen at the leading edge of high pressure. There is an upper level ridge parked over the eastern US, and any short term development will be found in the south central US, at the base of a strong jet trough.
There is little easterly momentum to the ridge, but there some. Cold air will coalesce behind the Appalachians even as low pressure develops in the lower Mississippi Valley. The cold air will drift southeastward, bringing with it the chance for a splash of showers on Wednesday afternoon, with a few clouds billowing in before that.
Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy, High 65, Low 46
Wednesday – chance of light rain, High 54, Low 44 (non-standard)

TWC: Tomorrow – Overcast. Slight chance of a rain shower. High 62, Low 51
Wednesday – Rain early then remaining cloudy with showers in the afternoon. High 55, Low 42

AW: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with a touch of rain; the temperature near the record of 69 set in 1991 High 64, Low 50
Wednesday – Mild with occasional rain and drizzle High 57, Low 42

NWS: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy, High 67, Low 48
Wednesday – Rain likely. Cloudy, High 53, Low 45

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy, High 62, Low 53
Wednesday – Rain likely, High 56, Low 42

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy, High 66, Low 48
Wednesday – Cloudy with light rain likely, High 52, Low 48

FIO: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy throughout the day. High 63, Low 48
Wednesday – Light rain in the morning and afternoon High 56, Low 39

There we go, a messy forecast for the middle of the week. Right now, however, the sky is clear and the air is unusually warm.

Ocala, Florida

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

We’re off to the Sunshine State once again. This weekend, the Super Bowl is a little further south in Miami. There were some very strong thunderstorms there last night, but at least at the Orange Bowl, life looks good this weekend. What about further north in Ocala?

At 203PM, ET, Ocala was reporting a temperature of 63 degrees with mostly cloudy skies. A cold front was moving through the Florida Peninsula, with temperatures in the 40s as close as Tallahassee. Ocala was not expected to receive any more rain today, though there were a few showers as nearby as Orlando.
The sharp upper level trough that is driving this cold front will be off over the Gulf Stream by tomorrow morning, with a thermal ridge working its way back into Florida by tomorrow afternoon. Low pressure developing in the plains will draw even more warm air northward.
Tomorrow – Sunny, High 67, Low 41
Monday – Partly cloudy, High 74, Low 39

TWC: Tomorrow – A mainly sunny sky. High 66, Low 42
Monday – A few clouds from time to time. high 73, Low 40

AW: Tomorrow – Plenty of sunshine, High 64, low 42
Monday – Partly sunny, pleasant and warmer High 73, low 40

NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny High 65, Low 42
Monday – Sunny High 73, Low 41

WB: Tomorrow – Sunny High 64, Low 44
Monday – Sunny High 71, Low 41

WN: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 64, Low 41
Monday – Sunny, High 73, Low 39

FIO: Tomorrow – Clear throughout the day. High 65, Low 43
Monday – Clear throughout the day. High 73, Low 40

Not much going on for the next couple of days, however we do have a bit of rain off to the south this afternoon. Not much longer, though, for fans of Disney World.

Brownsville, Texas

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

Throughout most of the summer, the deep south of Texas is so hot and far removed from the jet stream, there is nothing interesting about the weather. How will it be as we visit in late January and February?

At 153PM, CT, Brownsville was reporting a temperature of 67 degrees with overcast skies. The overcast conditions spread through the center of the country, from border to border, as a deep upper level trough settled into the country.
The base of the trough will continue to shift eastward overnight, with cold air chasing the clouds out of town, but not before bringing the threat of some light rain to the city in the early morning hours. Some cyclonic development will occur over the northern Gulf, which will encourage more dry air from the north into the afternoon. Saturday morning in particular will be quite cold, thanks to the clearer and northerly winds.
Tomorrow – Light rain early, High 64, Low 52
Saturday – Clearing and cooler, especially in the morning, High 70, Low 47

TWC: Tomorrow – Cloudy skies early will become partly cloudy later in the day (early showers) High 67, low 56
Saturday – Intervals of clouds and sunshine. High 72, low 50

AW: Tomorrow – Clouds giving way to some sun with a shower in spots early in the morning, then becoming breezy High 67, Low 58
Saturday – Sunshine and patchy clouds High 70, Low 49

NWS: Tomorrow – Patchy drizzle with a slight chance of rain before 9am. Cloudy, then gradually becoming mostly sunny, High 65, Low 51
Saturday – Mostly sunny High 69, Low 48

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with with a 20% chance of rain showers in the morning, then partly cloudy in the afternoon. High 65, low 55
Saturday – Sunny, High 70, Low 51

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy with isolated showers, High 67, Low 55
Saturday – Mostly sunny, High 71, Low 50

FIO: Tomorrow – Light rain tonight and tomorrow morning. high 66, Low 56
Saturday – Partly cloudy throughout the day. High 70, Low 52

Here is a look from the forecast from KRGV. They are an Accuweather outlet, so if their forecast looks a little familiar, that’s why.

St. Joseph, Missouri

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

We’re going to check in a little north of Kansas City for our first forecast of the week. What can we expect from the weather in the middle of the country to start the week?

At 1153AM, CT, St. Joseph was reporting light fog and a temperature of 36 degrees. They weren’t indicating cloud cover, but a quick look at satellite imagery would confirm that they are socked in with overcast. Warm temperatures were melting snow and leading to saturated air masses from Kansas City to the Canadian border, and with warm temperatures expected to continue, no end is in sight.
A weak upper level trough is parenting an even weaker surface feature sliding out of the Rockies and into the Texas/Oklahoma region through the night tonight and into tomorrow. An inverted trough associated with this system will sneak into the St. Joseph area in the evening and linger through the morning. Some light precipitation, likely just mist mixed with some flakes, will persist overnight. Temperatures hovering close to freezing will make for treacherous roads in the region on Wednesday morning.
Tomorrow – Light precip, including snow and freezing drizzle, starting in the evening, High 32, low 27
Wednesday – Mixed precipitation including snow and light icing through mid morning, then clearing, High 34, Low 26

TWC: Tomorrow – Cloudy (late snow) High 29, Low 26
Wednesday – Cloudy skies. A few flurries or snow showers possible. high 30, Low 24

AW: Tomorrow – Cloudy High 32, Low 27
Wednesday – A passing morning flurry; otherwise, partly sunny High 32, Low 24

NWS: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy (Late snow) High 33, Low 26
Wednesday – Mostly cloudy (Early snow) High 33, Low 24

WB: Tomorrow – Cloudy, high 31, low 29
Wednesday – Partly sunny, High 31, Low 27

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with a slight chance of light snow, High 33, low 28
Wednesday – Mostly cloudy, High 33, Low 24

FIO: Tomorrow – Foggy tomorrow morning. High 32, low 27
Wednesday – Overcast throughout the day. High 34, Low 25

Ah, the dangerous mixed bag. Model guidance is pretty low key on precipitation out of this event, and you could go a lot of different ways. I feel like, with temperatures as warm as they are, we are going to expect a lot more low visibility misty fog, and not as many flakes. I don’t know where TWC is coming from with their temperatures. Too cloudy for it to be so cold, in my opinion. In any event, here is the satellite, with a dome of cloud cover over the area.

Prescott, Arizona

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

Prescott is the sweet spot of Arizona. Not as hot as Phoenix in the summer, not as snowy as Flagstaff in the winter. Sweet.

At 753PM, MT, Prescott was reporting clear skies with a temperature of 40 degrees. Clear skies have moved across Arizona in the wake of a fairly wet week across the state.
A high amplitude but somewhat shortwave trough is rolling through the western US, allowing for surface high pressure across the Intermountain West. Expect continued zonal flow across Arizona, which should mean a few scattered clouds in Prescott.
Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 62, Low 27
Monday – Mostly cloudy, High 59, Low 32

TWC: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny skies. High 60, Low 29
Monday -Cloudy. High 59, Low 33

AW: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny High 60, Low 27
Monday – Mostly cloudy High 60, Low 30

NWS: Tomorrow Sunny, High 57, Low 29
Monday – Mostly cloudy High 57, Low 35

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny in the morning, then becoming partly cloudy, High 59, Low 30
Monday – Mostly cloudy, High 57, Low 34

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 57, Low 29
Monday – Mostly cloudy, High 57, Low 34

FIO: Tomorrow – Clear throughout the day, High 59, Low 30
Monday – Overcast throughout the day. High 59, Low 34

Well, that’s about it. Pretty easy breezy, if I’m being honest. Take a look at this fairly tranquil satellite imagery. I can see Phoenix!