Raleigh, North Carolina

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

We are headed to the Carolinas for our forecast today. The Atlantic Hurricane Season threatened to get off to an early start, as Tropical Storm Ana popped up near Bermuda today. Will any other exciting incidents take place this weekend?

At 853PM, ET, Raleigh was reporting fair skies, calm winds and a temperature of 76. There was a little pocket of clouds in Raleigh, but otherwise, high pressure is the predominant feature across over the eastern US.
The Omega block that has parented this long lasting ridge is going to see the beginning of its end through the beginning of the week. An area of low pressure is riding over the top of the ridge, through Canada, and the blocking low over the Atlantic will begin to lift north to intercept the low to the north, and allow the associated cold front to sink south into the US, with some showers and potentially an embedded thunderstorm arriving late on Monday.
Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 92, Low 66
Monday – Partly cloudy with some showers late, High 88, Low 68

TWC: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy. Hot. High 92, Low 67
Monday – A mix of clouds and sun in the morning followed by cloudy skies during the afternoon. A stray shower or thunderstorm is possible. High 90, Low 69

AW: Tomorrow – Very warm with sunshine and patchy clouds High 91, Low 67
Monday – Very warm with clouds and sun; a thunderstorm around in the afternoon High 90, Low 69

NWS: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 93, Low 66
Monday – A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms after 2pm. Mostly sunny, High 91, Low 67

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 89, Low 67
Monday – Partly sunny, High 87, Low 69

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 93, Low 64
Monday – Partly cloudy, High 91, Low 67

FIO: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy throughout the day. High 91, Low 71
Monday – Mostly cloudy throughout the day. High 90, Low 70.

Boy, did new model data come out as I wrote this up? Half way through the forecasting, outlets stopped calling for rain. Interesting. Here is the satellite image, which isn’t really full of information.

Des Moines, Iowa

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Des Moines is the destination for today’s forecast. I was just there for Easter, so I feel like I should have their forecast pretty well locked down.

At 936AM, CT, Des Moines was reporting a temperature of 68 degrees with overcast skies. While there was no rain presently seen in the Des Moines area, a batch of activity was moving through the Omaha area, and overcast riding over the top of a tropical airmass was shifting north behind a warm front, and smothered most of the Upper Midwest, particularly east of the Missouri. There was a strong ridge over the eastern 3/4ths of the US, but a weak undercutting trough was providing for some rough weather in the south central US, and the exit arm of the trough was helping usher in the soupier air mass across Iowa.
The undercutting trough is expected to fold back into the primary jet, while the surface ridge should start to retrograde a little over the next 24 hours. This will strengthen the return flow, and only stand to make Iowa more humid. A Canadian trough will dangle a cold front into Minnesota, but it won’t be strong enough to organize much convective activity in Iowa, however the latent moisture of the area, along with the brisk flow on the back end of the ridge in the Eastern United States will be enough to provide for garden variety showers and isolated storms through the day tomorrow and into the early afternoon on Friday. The ridge will build in at a more fortunate angle to dissuade more moisture from driving into Iowa, and it should switch off the threat for storms by nightfall.
Tomorrow – Scattered showers and thunderstorms, otherwise stuffy and partly cloudy, High 75, Low 63
Friday – Showers and storms early, then clearing but still muggy, High 80, Low 65

TWC: Tomorrow – Mixed clouds and sun with scattered thunderstorms High 76, Low 65
Friday – Scattered thunderstorms, especially in the afternoon. High 80, Low 66

AW: Tomorrow – Cloudy; a couple of morning thunderstorms followed by a shower in the afternoon High 74, Low 64
Friday – Remaining cloudy with a couple of thunderstorms High 81, Low 66

NWS: Tomorrow – A chance of showers and thunderstorms, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 2pm. Cloudy, High 76, Low 64
Friday – A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly before 2pm. Partly sunny, High 82, Low 66

WB: Tomorrow – Showers likely and a chance of thunderstorms. High 73, Low 64
Friday – Partly sunny with a 40 percent chance of thunderstorms, High 78, Low 66

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with light showers likely, High 76, Low 64
Friday – Partly cloudy, High 81, Low 68

FIO: Tomorrow – Possible light rain until afternoon. High 77, Low 65
Friday – Mostly cloudy throughout the day. High 79, Low 67

This is a real summer time pattern. An open flow from the Gulf, but no real organization to do anything with it. It’s early in the season, so it seems glum, but it should warm up pretty quick when the sun comes out.

Fairbanks, Alaska

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

It’s always a fun forecast when you have to establish the time zone before you can even begin analyzing the weather.

At 553PM, Alaska Time, Fairbanks was reporting a temperature of 53 degrees with mostly cloudy skies. While Fairbanks and the rest of the Tanana Valley were appreciating dry weather, the mountains surrounding were being hit with rain which was heavy particularly to the northeast of the city. Low pressure had settled in north of the Alaska Range, but a lot of the effect was the result of local topography, and the system itself was most well organized over the Yukon and British Columbia.
The feature is prognosticated to shift out of the region by tomorrow morning, allowing the Tanana Valley to dry out. Partly to mostly cloudy skies will remain on Monday. A jet ridge will press north towards southern Alaska by Tuesday, with moist air moving into the Alaska Range, where rain will be possible. For this wave, Fairbanks will be in the clear, with moisture unlikely to descent to the city limits.
Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy, High 60, Low 40
Tuesday – Partly cloudy, High 60, Low 38

TWC: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy in the morning. Increasing clouds with periods of showers later in the day. High 60, Low 41
Tuesday – Mostly cloudy, High 60, Low 39

AW: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with occasional rain in the afternoon High 62, Low 43
Tuesday – Turning cloudy (late rain) High 63, Low 39

NWS: Tomorrow – Isolated showers after 10am. Partly sunny High 61, Low 41
Tuesday – Partly sunny High 61, Low 40

WB: Tomorrow – Partly sunny. Isolated thunderstorms in the afternoon, High 55, Low 39
Tuesday – Partly sunny, High 56, Low 39

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 61, Low 41
Tuesday – Partly cloudy, High 62, Low 39

FIO: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy throughout the day. High 60, Low 40
Tuesday – Mostly cloudy throughout the day. High 58, Low 39

Fairbanks is a tough forecast. It’s not really close to anything else we forecast for, the terrain is absolutely wild, and the models are less available than it is in the CONUS. Here is the radar, with the rain showing up quite well surrounding town.

Kalamazoo, Michigan

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

I hope everyone has had a wonderful Mother’s Day. I know I did, seeing my mom, and watching my wife spend time with our kids is everything I could ask for.

At 1153PM, ET, Kalamazoo was reporting clear skies and a temperature of 44 degrees. The Great Lakes were tucked behind an area of low pressure moving into the Mid-Atlantic. While the north winds were certainly bringing in chillier air, they also provided the clear skies across lower Michigan. The combination of the two is leading to frost and freeze warnings and advisories statewide.
High pressure will build through the next couple of days. The temperature will gradually rise thanks to the spring sunshine, even without a real influx of a new airmass.
Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 56, Low 36
Tuesday – Sunny, High 58, Low 32

TWC: Tomorrow – Intervals of clouds and sunshine High 56, Low 35
Tuesday – Sunshine and some clouds High 55, Low 33

AW: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny and cool High 54, Low 31
Tuesday – Mostly sunny and cool High 53, Low 31

NWS: Tomorrow – Patchy frost before 9am. Otherwise, mostly sunny High 54, Low 33
Tuesday – Areas of frost before 9am. Otherwise, sunny High 54, Low 31

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, Patchy frost until midday, High 53, Low 36
Tuesday – Sunny. Areas of frost until midday. High 53, Low 33

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy with patchy frost, High 54, Low 33
Tuesday – Partly cloudy with areas of frost, High 54, Low 31

FIO: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy throughout the day. High 56, Low 34
Tuesday – Clear throughout the day. High 55, Low 31

The nasty weather has shifted southeast but a lot of clear skies over the Great Lakes.

Worcester, Massachusetts

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

I’m not sure there is a town with more unpronounced letters than Worcester, especially by the local population.

At 1254AM, ET, Worcester was reporting overcast skies with a temperature of 53 degrees. The tail of a weak cold front tailed through the Cape and south of Massachusetts, kicking up an interesting radar return over Boston Harbor, with gravity waves rippling through Massachusetts Bay. It looks quiet over most of New England overnight, though, as the system resposnible for the front is otherwise sequestered over Labrador, and will not cause further problems for Massachusetts.
The next feature is already knocking on the door in the Northeast. Rain will move in from the south, reaching Worcester as early as the early afternoon on Monday. Rain will continue and begin to intensify later in the evening. A warm front might bring an isolated thunderstorm overnight Monday to Tuesday, as the boundary passes The warm sector of the system will linger over southern New England through most of the daylight hours, but more rain will arrive late in the evening as the parent low approaches.
Tomorrow – After noon rain, intensifying late with a rumble of thunder. High 62, Low 50
Tuesday – Early rain, mostly sunny, then rain returns late, High 53, Low 44

TWC: Tomorrow – Cloudy. Late rain High 67, Low 52
Tuesday – Cloudy with occasional rain.. High 54, Low 48

AW: Tomorrow – Mainly cloudy with a passing shower this afternoon High 68, Low 53
Tuesday – A brief shower in the morning; otherwise, low clouds, then perhaps some sun High 58, Low 49

NWS: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy High 65, Low 52
Tuesday – Showers likely, mainly before 9am. High 63, Low 49

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy (evening rain), High 63, Low 53
Tuesday – Mostly cloudy with 50 percent chance of showers, High 53, Low 48

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy, High 65, Low 53
Tuesday – Mostly cloudy with showers likely High 63, Low 49

FIO: Tomorrow – Possible light rain in the evening. High 71, Low 51
Tuesday – Rain overnight and in the morning. High 53, Low 45

I think temperature forecasts have a high bust potential, given the proximity of low pressure to our forecast site. We will find out in a few days. Check out this neat looking radar image from the Boston area, with the radiating bands of rain showers, away from Boston.

Anniston, Alabama

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

Alabama has certainly seen it’s share of terrible weather this spring. I suspect our forecast through the middle of this week will be a bit less intimidating.

At 1153AM, CT, Anniston was reporting clear skies and a temperature of 67 degrees. While temperatures were warm, dew points sat merely in the low to mid 40s, so it wasn’t exactly summerlike northeast of Birmingham. A strong jet lay south of the Gulf Coast, keeping any frontal activity well offshore, and providing for a pleasant, subsident air mass, which is also working to stave off other inclement weather from the north.
A trough in the northern High Plains will drive southeastward, carrying with it a less active cold front than would be expected, given it’s strength. The front will pass without incident on Wednesday in the early evening, save for a switch in the wind direction.
Tomorrow – Sunny, High 77, Low 46
Wednesday – Increasing clouds, High 64, Low 43

TWC: Tomorrow – Sun and a few passing clouds. High 75, Low 48
Wednesday – Partly cloudy skies. High 60, Low 47

AW: Tomorrow – Partly sunny High 76, Low 47
Wednesday – Sunny to partly cloudy and cooler High 60, Low 45

NWS: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy, then gradually becoming sunny, High 76, Low 49
Wednesday – Sunny High 63, Low 44

WB: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 75, Low 46
Wednesday – Cooler, Partly cloudy in the morning then clearing. High 60, Low 45

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 79, Low 47
Wednesday – Mostly sunny, High 63, Low 46

FIO: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy throughout the day. High 76, Low 50
Wednesday – Partly cloudy throughout the day. High 61, Low 44

That change in wind will, I guess, bring cooler temperatures. Don’t be surprised if Wednesday highs are higher than forecast here. It won’t be colder, though. Check out this beautifully clear satellite image of Alabama.

Elizabethtown, Kentucky

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

We were just in Kentucky for our last forecast, and today, we are going just down the road, staying in the Bluegrass State.

At 155AM, ET, Elizabethtown was reporting a temperature of 45 degrees with mostly cloudy skies. There is a remnant disturbance over the the center of the country that is providing clouds and some light rain to parts of the Lower Mississippi Valley. A seasonably strong jet streak lay just north of the Gulf of Mexico, and was reflected by the tail of a cold front along the Gulf Coast which was working to prevent much moisture from filtering into the middle of the country. As a result, the already weak feature was even less potent than it’s dynamics suggested.
This aimless bit of moisture and energy has a very modest low level trough running from the eastern Great Lakes towards the Ozarks, and won’t be compelled to move. Instead, it will be lost between a resurgent area of low pressure developing along the Gulf front and a trough descending from Canada. Without a fresh infusion of moisture, or a terribly volatile trigger mechanism, expect little, if any precipitation in the area, with partly to mostly cloudy skies.
Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy, High 61, Low 40
Sunday – Mostly cloudy, High 63, Low 37

TWC: Tomorrow – Overcast. High 60, Low 42
Sunday – Sunshine in the morning followed by mostly cloudy skies during the afternoon. High 63, Low 38

AW: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with a shower in places High 60, Low 44
Sunday – Mainly cloudy with a shower in places High 63, Low 42

NWS: Tomorrow -Mostly cloudy (10%chance of early showers), High 59, Low 44
Sunday – A 20 percent chance of showers after 2pm. Partly sunny, High 62, Low 40

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with a 20% chance of showers, High 58, Low 44
Sunday – Partly cloudy with a 20% chance of showers, High 61, Low 39

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy, High 60, Low 46
Sunday – Partly cloudy, High 62, Low 40

FIO: Tomorrow – Overcast throughout the day., High 56 Low 44
Sunday – Partly cloudy throughout the day. High 64, Low 36

It’s always an interesting day when the forecast even features different precipitation forecasts. With some clear sky peaking through, I think the temperature has room to drop over night. That is the first question for this forecast!

Louisville, Kentucky

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

It’s time for a forecast, dear friends, so lets head on down to the Ohio Valley.

At 756PM, Louisville was reporting mostly clear skies with a temperature of 54 degrees. Parts of the region that saw a little bit of the sun before it set popped to nearly 60, but eastern Kentucky is still socked in, and sits in the upper 40s, with Louisville straddling the line. A deeply occluded low in the Great Lakes was tied to a slow moving low in the Appalachians, and the combination of the two was responsible for the cloud deck slowly departing the Louisville area.
The low is wrapping in additional mid level moisture that, within the colder air behind the system, is more inclined to produce some cloud cover. This is the regime that Louisville will find itself within for the remainder of the work week, with passing midlevel clouds passing in front of a seasonably cool sunshine. A perturbation moving through the southern Plains, riding the northern edge of a jet streak will approach late on Friday, but rain will hold off until the weekend.
Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 60, Low 42
Friday – Partly to mostly cloudy, High 64, Low 42

TWC: Tomorrow – Except for a few afternoon clouds, mainly sunny. High 61, Low 41
Friday – Partly cloudy skies. High 66, Low 39

AW: Tomorrow – Intervals of clouds and sunshine High 61, Low 41
Friday – Sun followed by clouds High 66, Low 39

NWS: Tomorrow – Sun followed by clouds High 60, Low 41
Friday – Mostly sunny High 63, Low 39

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 60, Low 44
Friday – Partly cloudy, High 65, Low 42

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 60, Low 41
Friday – Partly cloudy, High 63, Low 39

FIO: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy throughout the day. High 58, Low 40
Friday – Mostly cloudy throughout the day. High 62, Low 38

When there are no changes in air mass, and the sun is more or less out for the day, you end up with some pretty similar forecasts. Here is the satellite imagery, showing the last of the significant clouds and snow to Louisville’s southeast, and some less ominous clouds closer to Lake Michigan.

Saint George, Utah

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

While most of the population of Utah is in a narrow strip of the Salt Lake Basin, right along I-15, there is at least one big outlier: St. George and Cedar City in he southwest corner of the state.

At 156PM, MT, St. George was reporting a temperature of 77 degrees with clear skies. There is a bit of an absence of upper level dynamics, and across the arid inter mountain west, that means sunshine and dry air. Dew points are sitting in the teens, so temperatures this afternoon should warm unabated.
The entry region of the nearest jet is centered over the Pacific Northwest, and it will shift towards Wyoming through the day tomorrow. Flow in the wake of the jet will curl cyclonically to join the jet streak, leading to the development of low pressure over Nevada. Southerly flow will emerge in southern Utah later in the day Tuesday. Expect dry conditions to continue over St. George, but some rain and snow to emerge over the southern faces of taller Wasatch Mountains through central Utah by Tuesday night.
Tomorrow – Sunny, High 82, Low 51
Tuesday – Partly cloudy and breezy, High 81, Low 51

TWC: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy skies. High 84, Low 50
Tuesday – Partly cloudy early. Mostly sunny skies with gusty winds developing later in the day. High 81, Low 52

AW: Tomorrow – Intervals of clouds and sun High 83, Low 47
Tuesday – Mostly sunny; breezy in the afternoon High 79, Low 53

NWS: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny High 83, Low 51
Tuesday – Sunny, High 79, Low 55

WB: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 81, Low 55
Tuesday – Partly cloudy in the morning, then becoming sunny, High 80, Low 56

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 85, Low 51
Tuesday – Mostly sunny, High 81, Low 55

FIO: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy throughout the day. High 84, Low 50
Tuesday – Partly cloudy throughout the day. High 81, Low 53

This was an interesting forecast to construct, watching low pressure develop on the same map in an area that wasn’t the High Plains. Not something we get to look at every day. It’s pretty sunny today, though.

Decatur, Illinois

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

Central Illinois is calling our name this evening.

At 1054PM, CT, Decatur was reporting clear skies with a temperature of 66 degrees. An active area of low pressure west of the Mississippi was drawing warm moist air north into Illinois, lending to the stuffy overnight temperatures, but a great deal of rain, with embedded thunderstorms was on it’s way. Fortunately, the warmer weather should continue through most of the day tomorrow.
The sharp curl to the upper jet will induce occlusion of the system through tomorrow morning, slowing the system down and taking the teeth out of the precipitation as it moves through Decatur. Severe weather, and even strong thunderstorms are unlikely. Wet weather will arrive in the evening in Decatur on Wednesday, with rain continuing, heavy at times through Thursday morning. Cooler, damp air will linger later in the day on Thursday as low pressure parks itself in central Illinois. With a murky upper level pattern, the lingering moisture over Decatur will help set the stage for shower and thunderstorm activity later this week.
Tomorrow – Late rain, some thunderstorms close to midnight, High 77, Low 60
Thursday – Heavy rain, then overcast with spots of drizzle, High 61, Low 52

TWC: Tomorrow – Cloudy in the morning with scattered thunderstorms developing later in the day. High 77, Low 60
Thursday – Cloudy early with showers for the afternoon hours. High 60, Low 53

AW: Tomorrow – Some sun, then increasing clouds and windy; a thunderstorm in spots in the afternoon High 77, Low 61
Thursday – Mainly cloudy, breezy and cooler with a couple of showers High 61, Low 52

NWS: Tomorrow – A 20 percent chance of showers after 2pm. Partly sunny, High 75, Low 60
Thursday – A 40 percent chance of showers after 1pm. Partly sunny High 60, Low 52

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly Sunny, 20% chance of rain showers in the afternoon, High 75, Low 61
Thursday – Cooler. Partly sunny with a 50% chance of rain showers, High 61, Low 55

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy with scattered showers, High 75, Low 60
Thursday – Partly cloudy with scattered showers. High 59, Low 52

FIO: Tomorrow – Rain overnight and in the evening. Hugh 77, Low 5
“Thursday – Rain until morning, starting again in the evening. High 65, Low 51.

Illinois looks nice on satellite, but those poufs of cumulonimbus west of Mississippi bear watching.