Austin, Texas

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

We made it to the first forecast of the year, and the first performance for Clime. Hopefully, the forecast won’t keep Austin weird.

At 753PM, CT, Austin was reporting a temperature of 41 degrees with fair skies. High pressure has settled in over the middle of the country in the wake of a strong area of low pressure that left a trail of destruction through the South yesterday, and has brought a chill to the air across Texas. A broad ridge is encompassing the western US, with an undercutting ridge setting up for the next day or so.
For the forecast purpose, this ridge will remain intact through Saturday and usher in a return of some warmer air. The next round of low pressure will arrive east of the Rockies on Sunday, and will begin to deepen swiftly. While it is likely to become the next significant round of wintry weather, it will merely lead to a warm up in Austin on Sunday.
Tomorrow – Sunny, High 65, Low 36
Sunday – Partly cloudy, High 75, Low 47

TWC: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny skies. High 67, Low 38
Sunday – Partly cloudy skies. High 77, Low 50

AW: Tomorrow – Plenty of sun; a nice start to the weekend High 64, Low 36
Sunday – Warm with intervals of clouds and sunshine; breezy in the afternoon High 73, Low 50

NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny High 65, Low 37
Sunday – Mostly sunny, High 75, Low 48

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 64, Low 38
Sunday – Partly cloudy, High 74, Low 51

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 65, Low 37
Sunday – Partly cloudy, High 75, Low 48

CL: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 67, Low 38
Sunday – Sunny, High 77, Low 52

Oh man, I was worried that Clime was going to start with a carbon copy of The Weather Channel, but then that Sunday low came through. Similarity is explainable though, given how stark the satellite looks.

Lewiston, Idaho

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This forecast is coming out too late to factor into our standings or anything like that, but it will serve as a send off to the newly retiring Forecast.io. Starting on January 1st, we will be using Clime. I would love to use Fox Weather, but they still haven’t managed to produce a website with local forecasting.

At 956PM, MT, Lewiston was reporting cloudy skies with a temperature of 42 degrees. While the west didn’t experiences the frigid temperatures seen in the eastern 2/3 of the country over Christmas, a deep trough has set up over the Rockies, with a strong jet, a so called atmospheric river, pumping moisture into the Pacific Northwest. Winter Weather advisories have been issued just to the north of Lewiston, with more to the south. It remains quite likely that snow is on it’s way in Lewiston as well.
The next round of wet weather is already Pressing ashore in western Washington and Oregon, bringing steady precipitation to the Cascades. Lewiston’s presence between the Cascades and the Rockies of western Montana will spare some of the more significant snows, as will temperatures that will flirt with freezing. Additionally, a prominent surface feature is forecast to organize in the Great Basin, south of Idaho through the next two days, sapping Lewiston’s moisture and ultimately bringing colder temperatures as the snow ends. Nevertheless, snow with a bit of light rain mixed in are possible from mid morning tomorrow and onward for about 24 hours before clearing arrives.
Tomorrow – Light snow with a bit of light rain, High 47, Low 37
Saturday- Early precipitation, generally falling as rain, High 41, Low 32

TWC: Tomorrow – A mix of clouds and sun early, then becoming cloudy later in the day (rain/snow late). High 48, Low 36
Saturday – Considerable cloudiness (Early mixed precip). High 45, Low 35

AW: Tomorrow – A couple of showers of rain or snow in the morning; otherwise, mostly cloudy High 51, Low 37
Saturday – Mostly cloudy High 46, Low 37

NWS: Tomorrow – Rain, mainly before 7am. High 50, Low 37
Saturday – Mostly cloudy,  High 45, Low 36

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with rain or snow in the morning then mostly sunny in the afternoon. High 47, Low 36
Saturday- Partly sunny, High 45, Low 37

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy with isolated showers, High 49, Low 39
Saturday – Partly cloudy, High 42, Low 34

FIO: Tomorrow – Light rain throughout the day. High 47, Low 37
Saturday – Mostly cloudy throughout the day. HIgh 44, Low 34

Clouds and the amount of precipitation in Lewiston will all play a factor. I think there is a huge bust potential overall with this dynamic system in the mountains. I am banking on it skewing colder. Look at all the rain coming for the Cascades at this hour!

And with that, so long, Forecast.io!

Goldsboro, North Carolina

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

Back to the Tar Heel State for a forecast in Goldsboro. A lot of ‘boros in North Carolina.

At 855PM, ET, Goldsboro was reporting mostly cloudy skies with a temperature of 42 degrees. A massive, deep area of low pressure is on it’s way north towards Nova Scotia, and is dangling a cold front that is primarily inactive onshore, save for a thick shield of clouds well to the north of the boundary, and more scattered activity in the Carolinas before the boundary is visible in south Georgia. If the clouds don’t fill in fast enough, Goldsboro may approach freezing, but tomorrow morning will be cloudy.
While the low headed to Nova Scotia is stout, it is going to be quickly forgotten in the CONUS. A strong trough moving out of the Rockies is going to bring a warm front into the region. The feature is going to be a headline maker in the middle of the country with winter weather in the Northern Plains, and a perturbation in the southern part of the boundary is already bringing severe weather to the Southern Plains tonight. The severe storms will continue into the lower Mississippi Valley tomorrow, with continued storm activity along the Gulf Coast Wednesday. The severe storms and most unstable air will stay south of the Carolinas, but in the evening on Wednesday, rain will arrive in Goldsboro, leading to a soggy end of the week.
Tomorrow – Cloudy early, then clearing, High 49, Low 30
Wednesday – Increasing clouds late, some showers before midnight, High 52, Low 28

TWC: Tomorrow – Sunshine. High 50, Low 29
Wednesday – Cloudy skies (Late rain) High 51, Low 27

AW: Tomorrow – Plenty of sun High 51, Low 31
Wednesday – Cloudy and chilly; a passing shower in the afternoon High 50, Low 28

NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny High 49, Low 29
Wednesday – Partly sunny, High 50, Low 29

WB: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 47, Low 30
Wednesday – Mostly cloudy, a slight chance of rain in the afternoon, High 47, Low 31

WN: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 48, Low 31
Wednesday – Partly cloudy, High 49, Low 30

FIO: Tomorrow – Clear throughout the day. High 48, Low 31
Wednesday – Mostly cloudy throughout the day (Late rain). High 49, Low 28

Here is a look at the satellite, with the Carolinas in the happy middle between sheaths of overcast.

Durham, North Carolina

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

We are 4 days into December, and it’s already snowed twice at the Victoria-Weather headquarters. Let’s see how it is going in North Carolina.

At 1130, ET, Durham was reporting a temperature of 39 degrees with clear skies. An elongated ridge ran along the coast, with the southwestern end nosing into the Carolinas, keeping Durham dry this evening. The tenuous existence of the ridge will make the Carolinas susceptible to wet weather over the next couple of days, despite the clear skies at present.
There is a low level perturbation that is moving east out of northern Alabama tonight, and will attempt to wrap under the southern Appalachians and into the Carolina Plains with limited success. A more notable feature moving through Canada will dangle a cold front that eventually catches up to the perturbation lurking in the southeast. This boundary will more effectively tap into the moisture drawn in tomorrow morning, leading to some clouds and light rain throughout the day on Tuesday. Don’t expect the front to ever reach Durham, however, so a dramatic cool down will be averted.
Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 55, Low 32
Tuesday – Mostly cloudy with some light rain, High 59, Low 46

TWC: Tomorrow – Considerable cloudiness. High 55, Low 29
Tuesday – Cloudy with showers High 58, Low 45

AW: Tomorrow – Some sunshine giving way to clouds High 54, Low 29
Tuesday – Cloudy with a passing shower High 58, Low 44

NWS: Tomorrow -Partly sunny, High 53, Low 29
Tuesday – A chance of rain before 8am, then showers likely, mainly between 8am and 2pm. Cloudy High 59, Low 43

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy, late rain High 53, Low 30
Tuesday – Cloudy. Showers mainly in the morning. High 59, Low 45

WN: Tomorrow – Partly Cloudy, High 53, Low 31
Tuesday – Mostly cloudy with showers likely, High 57, Low 43

FIO: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy throughout the day. High 51, Low 35
Tuesday – Rain until night, starting again in the afternoon. High 59, Low 484

Satellite tonight shows whispers of clouds over Durham, but a pleasant day is promised ahead, unless you ask Weatherbug.

,

Tulsa, Oklahoma

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

Today’s forecast takes us to another part of the country that is known for strong spring time weather, after Decatur earlier this week. Will Tulsa see cool and calm like Decatur did, or will we see something different?

At 953AM, Tulsa was reporting a brisk 42 degrees with mostly cloudy skies and wind gusting over 20mph. The jet was quite strong, which is not unusual for the time of year, and ridging through the center of the country. High pressure centered over the Ohio Valley was generating the brisk wind on it’s back side, with return flow bringing some of the cloud and chances for rain in the southern Plains.
Over the Rockies, this same strong jet is producing a trough, which hasn’t fully materialized into a surface low yet, thanks to the local terrain. Expect a deep area of low pressure to emerge over South Dakota tomorrow morning, enhancing the windy conditions over Tulsa. Flow will be from the southwest, with high pressure still nosing into the northern Gulf, and this will staunch moisture flow into Oklahoma. The associated cold front will arrive late Friday with similarly gusty winds, and a significant Saturday cool down.
Tomorrow – Passing clouds, breezy, High 67, Low 48
Saturday – Partly cloudy, colder but less windy, High 49, Low 32

TWC: Tomorrow – Overcast. High 65, Low 46
Saturday – Partly cloudy skies. High 49, Low 33

AW: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy, windy and warmer High 64, Low 47
Saturday – Mostly cloudy and cooler High 48, Low 30

NWS: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy, High 66, Low 46
Saturday – Mostly sunny, High 51, Low 35

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy in the morning, then becoming partly sunny. Breezy, High 65, Low 47
Saturday – Mostly sunny, High 50, Low 37

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 65, Low 47
Saturday – Partly cloudy, High 46, Low 36

FIO: Tomorrow – Windy in the morning and afternoon. High 64, Low 44
Saturday – Windy overnight. High 53, Low 33

The high on Saturday will probably come at midnight. The WeatherNation hourly forecast doesn’t extend that far out, but they shouldn’t be too far off. Check out the satellite, showing clouds wrapping around high pressure in Texas and Oklahoma.

Decatur, Alabama

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

Tonight’s forecast takes us to an area under threat for severe weather. The strongest storms are in Mississippi, but northern Alabama remains in a slight risk for severe weather.

At 853PM, CT, Decatur was reporting cloudy skies and a temperature of 63 degrees. Low clouds and cool temperatures across northern Alabama suggest that the threat for severe weather is likely over, however, there is plenty of rain and thunder across central Tennessee that looms as a possibility overnight. Flash flooding is always a possibility, but the strong winds and tornadoes will remain to the southwest.
The parent area of low pressure associated with tonight’s storms is moving north of the Great Lakes, while a secondary vorticity maximum was centered over western Kentucky, providing the atmospheric spin, and emphasis on moisture importation to the region tonight. As a unit, this feature is progressing swiftly to the east, and the threat of rain should be clear of Decatur by sunrise. The high pressure that builds behind this system will be stout but transient. The next two days will be cool and clear, a recovery after a rainy and stormy night.
Tomorrow – Rain ending early, then becoming sunny, High 58, Low 30
Thursday – Sunny, High 52, Low 27

TWC: Tomorrow – Some clouds in the morning will give way to mainly sunny skies for the afternoon (early rain). High 62, Low 33
Thursday – Some clouds in the morning will give way to mainly sunny skies for the afternoon. High 52, Low 29

AW: Tomorrow – Cooler with clouds giving way to sun; breezy in the afternoon (Early Rain) High 60, Low 34
Thursday – Sunshine, High 52, Low 29

NWS: Tomorrow – Partly sunny, then gradually becoming sunny, (Rain early) High 67, Low 36
Thursday – Mostly sunny, High 51, Low 31

WB: Tomorrow – Much cooler, mostly sunny (Early rain), High 62, Low 33
Thursday – Partly cloudy, High 50, Low 30

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy with showers and scattered storms, High 64, Low 36
Thursday – Partly cloudy, High 51, Low 32

FIO: Tomorrow – Heavy rain overnight and in the morning. High 63, Low 34
Thursday – Partly cloudy throughout the day. High 51, Low 29

Temperatures tomorrow will be falling through the day as high pressure settles in. Some rain looms to the northwest, but mercifully, none of it will bring terrible storms.

Racine, Wisconsin

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

Today’s forecast takes us to southeastern Wisconsin. Thanksgiving week in the Midwest seems appropriate.

At 1053AM, CT, Racine was reporting a temperature of 40 degrees with clear skies. An area of low pressure over eastern Canada was inducing a strong west wind across Wisconsin, which made things feel cool, but the off shore breeze allowed temperatures to reach 40 and ensured that clouds stayed over Lake Michigan.
The wave over Canada will be replaced by weak low pressure in the Canadian Prairies. The change in pattern will tamp down on the gusty winds, and the change in flow around the next area of low pressure will bring about some southerly flow, and warmer temperatures for mid-week.
Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 44, Low 23
Wednesday – Partly cloudy, High 48, Low 30

TWC: Tomorrow – Sunny along with a few clouds. High 44, Low 26
Wednesday – Mostly sunny. High 49, Low 27

AW: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny; quiet weather for early holiday travelers High 45, Low 28
Wednesday – Sunny to partly cloudy High 50, Low 29

NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 44, Low 25
Wednesday – Sunny High 49, Low 27

WB: Tomorrow – Partly sunny in the morning, then clearing, High 43, Low 25
Wednesday – Sunny, High 47, Low 30

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 42, Low 27
Wednesday – Mostly sunny, High 48, Low 31

FIO: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy throughout the day. High 43, Low 28
Wednesday – Partly cloudy throughout the day. High 48, Low 31

Check out the satellite of the Great Lakes. The westerly flow is leading to a cloudy day in Michigan, but not in Wisconsin.

Jefferson City, Missouri

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

We are heading back to Missouri for our forecast today, and this time, we are taking it to the manager, visiting the state capital.

At 553AM, CT, Jefferson City was reporting clear skies and a temperature of 65 degrees with clear skies. Low pressure centered over the Upper Midwest is producing a warm front that ranged through the northern Great Lakes, and was drawing forth a significant warm surge through the Mississippi Valley, bringing forth the unusual warmth in early November.
As with most autumnal systems, there is a strong cold front dangling off the back end of the low pressure center, This active pattern is also punctuated by the remnants of Hurricane Nicole over Florida, and drifting north into southern Appalachia. The cold front will be active with showers and storms over northwestern Missouri this afternoon and evening, with the chance of a shower arriving near sunrise tomorrow. Nicole, however, will sap most of the moisture moving towards Jefferson City, which will tone down the rain chances through the day Friday. That said, mid layer clouds and a rush of cooler air will still trail the boundary, making for a chilly start to the weekend.
Tomorrow – Early showers lead to clouds and cold, High 52, Low 30
Saturday – Partly cloudy but colder, High 37, Low 22

TWC: Tomorrow – Cloudy skies early will become partly cloudy later in the day. Slight chance of a rain shower. High 51, Low 33
Saturday – Sunshine and clouds mixed High 40, Low 24

AW: Tomorrow – A passing shower in the morning; otherwise, partly to mostly sunny and cooler; the colder weather will linger into next week High 53, Low 32
Saturday – Mostly sunny and cold High 40, Low 24

NWS: Tomorrow – Cloudy through mid morning, then gradual clearing, (early storms) High 50, Low 30
Saturday – Sunny High 38, Low 24

WB: Tomorrow – Sunny (early rain), High 53, Low 32
Saturday – Sunny, High 40, Low 26

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 50, Low 34
Saturday – Mostly sunny, High 38, Low 24

FIO: Tomorrow – Rain overnight and in the morning. High 51, Low 31
Saturday – Clear throughout the day. High 40, Low 25

The cold front over northern Missouri is looming. Enjoy the heat today, because winter is around the corner.

College Station, Texas

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

Texas A&M is located in College Station, and is home to a very good meteorology school. One suspects that at least one of the forecasters in this competition will have a close connection with College Station.

AT 1253PM, CT, College Station was reporting a temperature of 73 with clear skies. A jet streak aloft over east Texas was evident in some streaming cirrus over the region. Further to the south, a thatch of clouds over southern Texas represented return flow on the back end of surface high pressure. As the jet streak carries to the northeast, the Gulf will open further, with moisture allowed to trek north through the state.
A weak trough at the entrance of the jet streak is going to exacerbate the shower activity in south Texas, with rain bubbling up through much of the southern half of the Lone Star State. As this upper wave transitions away, and an upper ridge establishes over the center of the country, high pressure will recommit to the southeastern US. Flow into an area of low pressure developing in the High Plains will route north of College Station, and a warm, dry start to November is anticipated.
Tomorrow – Chance of evening showers, otherwise warm, High 73, Low 58
Wednesday – Partly cloudy, High 76, Low 60

TWC: Tomorrow – Cloudy early with partial sunshine expected late.  High 75, Low 58
Wednesday – Partly cloudy skies. High 80, Low 56

AW: Tomorrow – Intervals of clouds and sunshine with a couple of showers High 73, Low 60
Wednesday – Pleasant with sun and areas of low clouds High 79, Low 60

NWS: Tomorrow – A 20 percent chance of showers before 1pm. Partly sunny, High 72, Low 59
Wednesday – Mostly sunny, High 79, Low 56

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy in the morning then becoming mostly sunny. High 71, Low 60
Wednesday – Mostly sunny, High 79, Low 58

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 72, Low 54
Wednesday – Partly cloudy, High 79, Low 56

FIO: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy throughout the day. High 70, Low 57
Wednesday – Mostly cloudy throughout the day. High 77, Low 59

Tomorrow, in a worst case scenario, might necessitate kids staying indoors and eating a whole lot of candy. Happy Halloween!

Columbia, Missouri

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

Columbia is the home of the University of Missouri, and like most of the population of Missouri, isn’t terribly far from St. Louis.

At 154PM, CT, Columbia was reporting a temperature of 83 degrees with fair skies. Low pressure moving through the northern Plains was inducing brisk southerly winds that were bringing temperatures up to unusually high levels, and introducing a little bit of moisture to the atmosphere. Columbia was on the cusp of drought, but is not presently under a red flag warning, even with the gusty winds.
The strong feature in the Plains is going to gain a tighter circulation and start moving north toward the Dakotas and Minnesota. The cold front, owing to the primarily northerly vector of the system, will be slow moving. The boundary will flare in Kansas and Oklahoma tomorrow morning, and slowly traipse across Missouri before arriving in Columbia in the evening on Monday. The base of the trough will be fertile ground for more cyclonic development, and a wave will develop in the Red River Valley and move north, ensuring that after the rain and thunder start on Monday, it will persist, though likely with less thunder, through the early part of Tuesday, with colder temperatures following.
Tomorrow – Rain and thunder arriving late after another warm October day. High 74, Low 54
Tuesday – Rain through the afternoon, then clearing, High 54, Low 46

TWC: Tomorrow – Cloudy with occasional rain in the afternoon. Thunder possible High 72, Low 50
Tuesday – Periods of rain High 52, Low 49

AW: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy, breezy and not as warm; a couple of afternoon showers and a heavy thunderstorm High 72, Low 55
Tuesday – Cloudy, breezy and cooler with heavy rain tapering off High 55, Low 46

NWS: Tomorrow – Showers, mainly after 2pm High 73, Low 59
Tuesday – Showers likely, mainly before 2pm. Mostly cloudy High 59, Low 46

WB: Tomorrow – Cloudy, showers in the afternoon, High 74, Low 56
Tuesday – Showers likely mainly in the morning, High 57, Low 46

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with showers, High 74, Low 63
Tuesday – Mostly cloudy with scattered showers, High 56, Low 48

FIO: Tomorrow – Rain throughout the day. High 79, Low 63
Tuesday – Rain throughout the day. High 67, Low 46

It is non-standard temperature season! What a rainy forecast for eastern Missouri. I wouldn’t be surprised to see several inches of rain in some parts of the state. The low is easily apparent up in Montana even this afternoon.