Harrisonburg, Virginia

Ryan Henning 2 Comments

We’re heading to northern Virginia, and are going to be in for some sultry conditions headed into the weekend. Let’s see how stuffy we can get.

At 1215PM, ET, Harrisonburg was reporting a temperature of 82 degrees with clear skies and a steamy dew point of 71. There are a few clouds in nearby Staunton, and there is lingering moisture across the coastal Plain area from the Chesapeake south through the Carolinas which will continue to diminish through the day today. It is left over from the previous round of wet weather, and as the next system moves from the Great Lakes, expect Harrisonburg to scour out a bit, with clear skies coming in.
That next system will approach from the west by Saturday afternoon. The latent moisture in the region will mean there is a better chance for some rain and storms as the system climbs over the mountains than typically seen in eastward moving systems in Harrisonburg. There is a great deal of disagreement on the timing of this feature, with one model suggesting that the system won’t arrive until Sunday. As a result, rain and storms will be in both days’ forecast, but there is a better chance that the precipitation will be stormier on Saturday evening. There is some hope for clearing on Sunday afternoon, so the weekend won’t be a total loss.
Tomorrow – Partly cloudy with some late thunderstorms, High 89, Low 65
Sunday – Scattered showers, with some clearing potentially late. Less humid, High 88, low 68

TWC: Tomorrow – Intervals of clouds and sunshine in the morning with more clouds for later in the day. A stray shower or thunderstorm is possible. high 88, Low 64
Sunday – Partly cloudy skies. A stray shower or thunderstorm is possible. High 86, Low 69

AW: Tomorrow – Clouds and sunshine with a heavy thunderstorm around High 87, Low 64
Sunday – Mostly cloudy (early storms) High 87, Low 70

NWS: Tomorrow – A chance of showers and thunderstorms after 2pm. Patchy fog before 8am. Otherwise, partly sunny, High 89, Low 66
Sunday – A slight chance of showers, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms after 2pm. Mostly sunny, High 88, Low 69

WB: Tomorrow – Partly sunny, patchy fog in the morning. A chance of showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon, High 86, Low 67
Sunday – Mostly sunny. A chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. High 84, Low 68

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy with scattered showers and a chance of storms, High 89, Low 67
Sunday – Partly cloudy (early storms), High 89, Low 69

CLI: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy, High 88, Low 63
Sunday – Light rain showers, High 88, Low 68

As one might expect with models in conflict, there is disagreement on how to sort out this forecast. Have a glance at the local forecast from WSHV’s Ben Beddoes to get a little bit of clarity.

Denver, Colorado

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

Denver is typically at the border between two worlds, one mountainous, the other empty plains. Lately, they have also been along an oscillating lee trough, touching off strong thunderstorms throughout the area.

At 853PM, MT, Denver was reporting a temperature of 70 degrees with fair skies. Thunderstorm activity has finally started to leave eastern Colorado and western Kansas in piece, as a weak upper level ridge has settled in place over the central Rockies.
For the next couple of days, the primary factor in the ignition of showers and storms will be a dry line that will initially be too far south to bring any wet weather to the Mile High City, and shift east into the Plains. Denver will continue to warm and dry out as the week begins.
Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, Hot, High 91, Low 61
Tuesday – Mostly sunny and even warmer, High 97, Low 63

TWC: Tomorrow – Sunshine and clouds mixed High 91, Low 61
Tuesday – Sunshine and some clouds. Hot. High 97, Low 63

AW: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny High 91, Low 58
Tuesday – Very warm with plenty of sunshine High 97, Low 61

NWS: Tomorrow – Very warm with plenty of sunshine High 95, Low 60
Tuesday – Sunny High 95, Low 62

WB: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, a 10 percent chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon, High 92, Low 61
Tuesday – Mostly sunny, High 96, Low 61

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 95, Low 60
Tuesday – Mostly sunny, High 95, Low 62

CLI: Tomorrow – Light Rain Showers, High 87, Low 61
Tuesday – Sunny, High 94, Low 62

Clime looks to be on a slightly different planet than the rest of the forecasters her. In fact, I would say if this forecasts busts, it will be because the temperature is even warmer tomorrow. Satellite tonight is awfully quiet.

Odessa, Texas

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

We are undergoing the hottest stretch the planet has ever seen, and yet, the continental US has been fairly cool. That’s not a blanket statement, though, as the heat is on in the southwest, and Odessa looks to be in the crosshairs for some brutal heat.

At 753PM, CT, Odessa was reporting a temperature of 94 degrees with clear skies. Dew points were below 50 which is among the reasons that temperatures are able to soar during the heating of the day. Low pressure is centered over eastern Oklahoma, and cycling moisture into a lee trough, where severe thunderstorms have arisen from Colorado to the Texas Panhandle. Ridging has started pressing from the southwest already, though, and Odessa is expected to remain dry tonight.
Sunday will remain hot and dry, and the jet will lift well to the north. A fairly strong area of low pressure will emerge in the Canadian Prairies, pulling moisture westward, and likely inducing a bit more activity out of the dry line. It will be plenty warm again on Monday, but there will be a few scattered clouds across west Texas in the evening to spell relief, though rain will predominantly stay in the Panhandle.
Tomorrow – Sunny and hot, High 103, Low 78
Monday – Scattered clouds, High 104, Low 74

TWC: Tomorrow – Sunny skies. Hot. High 104, Low 78
Monday – A mainly sunny sky. Hot. High 105, Low 76

AW: Tomorrow – Breezy in the morning; sunshine and hot; stay hydrated when outside in the heat High 103, Low 77
Monday – Mostly sunny, breezy and hot; danger of dehydration and heatstroke if outside for extended periods of time High 103, Low 78

NWS: Tomorrow -Sunny and hot, High 103, Low 77
Monday – Sunny and hot, High 103, Low 77

WB: Tomorrow – Sunny, Hot, High 102, Low 78
Monday – Sunny, hot, High 103, Low 78

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 103, Low 77
Monday – Sunny, High 103, Low 77

CLI: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 102, Low 79
Monday – High 104, Low 77

As I said, it’s going to be plenty hot, with temperatures well over 100, and it won’t cool down all that much in the evening. Tonight, looking to the north they may see some flashes of light on the horizon.

Amarillo, Texas

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

Before we get to this forecast in the Texas Panhandle, I want to note that with the looming collapse of Twitter, all posts will also be shared on Post.news and Mastadon under my RhinoandCompass handle. Now, it is the beginning of July. What do you think the weather is going to look like?

At 953PM, ET, Amarillo was reporting clear skies and a temperature of 81 degrees with clear skies. Temperatures are on the rise again after a dry line swept through uneventfully earlier in the week. Dew points are back in the low 50s after surging over 60, an unusual event for the Texas Panhandle in the heart of summer. The cold front htat pushed the dry line along is bringing some shower activity to the Oklahoma Panhandle, but will not have the juice to reach Amarillo.
The jet is well aloft and fairly weak, but enough to tap into the instability of the northern Plains. The cold front noted earlier is draped through the Prairies of the central States to the Panhandles. Though this is the feature that compelled the dry line eastward, it will also pose a threat for some rain and clouds as the boundary sinks to the south on Wednesday evening. Expect some more humidity and likely some cooler temps also on Thursday.
Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 95, Low 68
Thursday – Isolated morning storms High 87, Low 65

TWC: Tomorrow – Generally sunny despite a few afternoon clouds. A stray shower or thunderstorm is possible. High 93, Low 69
Thursday – Partly cloudy skies. High 88, Low 65

AW: Tomorrow – Sunshine mixing with some clouds High 92, Low 68
Thursday – A heavy thunderstorm in the afternoon; storms can bring flooding downpours, hail, damaging wind gusts, and an isolated tornado High 84, Low 64

NWS: Tomorrow – Partly sunny, then gradually becoming sunny, Late storms, High 92, Low 70
Thursday – A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms before 8am. Some of the storms could be severe. Partly sunny, High 87, Low 65

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny (late showers/storms) High 89, Low 69
Thursday – Partly cloudy, High 85, Low 65

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny (late storms), High 91, Low 70
Thursday – Partly cloudy (early storms), High 87, Low 65

CLI: Tomorrow – Light rain showers High 90, Low 68
Thursday – Partly cloudy High 86, Low 63

Lot of different rain forecasts, and frankly, I wouldn’t be surprised if it all gets dried out in the July sun before reaching the ground.

Kalamazoo, Michigan

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

Our trek today takes us to the Lower Peninsula of Michigan, and certainly one of the more enjoyably named cities in the country.

At 453PM, ET, Kalamazoo was reporting a temperature of 65 degrees with overcast skies. A sharp trough directed from the Great Lakes to the Mid Atlantic has brought severe weather to the Ohio Valley yesterday, but is now providing intermittent shower activity across Lower Michigan. At this juncture, most of the rain is east of a line from Big Rapids and Marshall, with lighter activity in the western stretch of the state.
The low is continuing eastward, but is occluded similar to a more winter or springlike feature, leading to a lag in the shower activity over Michigan. A chance will linger in Michigan until about lunch time tomorrow, but high pressure and a narrow ridge are building behind the feature. Temperatures will bounce back after this chilly start. The jet will begin to break down, weakening from it’s current state, and as a result, humidity and clouds are going to remain in the forecast.
Tomorrow – Cloudy with some light showers in the morning, Clearing late, High 78, Low 57
Wednesday – Partly cloudy and warmer, High 83, Low 54

TWC: Tomorrow – Cloudy skies early, then partly cloudy in the afternoon. A stray shower or thunderstorm is possible. High 77, Low 60
Wednesday – Partly cloudy. High 84, Low 53

AW: Tomorrow – Cloudy and warmer with a passing shower; smoke from distant wildfires can cause poor air quality High 77, Low 60
Wednesday – Mostly sunny, pleasant and warmer High 85, Low 56

NWS: Tomorrow – A 30 percent chance of showers before 8am. Widespread haze before noon, then widespread haze after 2pm. Cloudy, then gradually becoming mostly sunny High 77, low 59
Wednesday – Sunny, High 84, Low 53

WB: Tomorrow – Cloudy with a chance of showers and a slight chance of thunderstorms High 78, Low 60
Wednesday – Mostly cloudy with a 20 percent chance of rain showers until midday, High 83, Low 54

WN: Tomorrow – Hazy, High 77, Low 59
Wednesday – Hazy, High 83, Low 53

CLI: Tomorrow – Overcast (Light rain), High 81, Low 57
Wednesday – Sunny, High 84, Low 54

Radar is deceptively inactive. Don’t be surprised in Western Michigan by random little spritzes of rain this evening.

Fort Myers, Florida

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

Fort Myers was the scene of one of the biggest weather disasters of 2022, when Hurricane Ian made landfall nearby. I have family in the area and was there over Christmas, and can speak to the long recovery the area is still struggling to undergo.

At 353PM, ET, Fort Myers was reporting a temperature of 89 with fair skies. A jet over south Florida was leading to persistent rain showers from the Everglades northeast towards the Atlantic Coast. At this point, heavier, isolated thunderstorm cells had crept up from Lake Okeechobee to Everglades City and eastward to the Atlantic. This band of showers and storms is associated with a cold front that itself is associated with the area of low pressure in New England that is cycling in an overwhelming amount of smoke to the mid-Atlantic.
The tail of this jet will shift towards the Bahamas eventually, with the threat for rain not truly out of the forecast in Fort Myers until Saturday. The trough in the mid-Atlantic is going to be even slower to drive out, with flow in the area not shifting to become less northerly until Sunday. as a result, relief from the smoke may have to wait until late in the weekend. Expect streams of clouds to continue to bubble up over far south Florida through the next couple of days, though Fort Myers will avoid any more of the thunderstorm activity, with sea breeze storms becoming prevalent inland.
Tomorrow – Partly cloudy and warm, High 91, Low 72
Sunday – Partly cloudy, High 91, Low 74

TWC: Tomorrow – Sunny, along with a few afternoon clouds. A stray shower or thunderstorm is possible. High 90, Low 73
Sunday – Except for a few afternoon clouds, mainly sunny. A stray shower or thunderstorm is possible. High 91, Low 73

AW: Tomorrow – Partly sunny with a thunderstorm in parts of the area in the afternoon High 91, Low 73
Sunday – Except for a few afternoon clouds, mainly sunny. A stray shower or thunderstorm is possible. High 92, Low 74

NWS: Tomorrow -Scattered showers and thunderstorms after 2pm. Sunny, High 89, Low 74
Sunday – Scattered showers and thunderstorms after 2pm. Sunny, High 90, Low 74

WB: Tomorrow – Sunny. Scattered showers with isolated thunderstorms in the afternoon, High 89, Low 75
Sunday – Sunny, Scattered showers with isolated thunderstorms in the afternoon, High 90, Low 75

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms, High 88, Loe 75
Sunday – Partly cloudy with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms, High 89, Low 75

CLI: Tomorrow – Light rain showers, High 91, Low 74
Sunday – Light rain showers, High 90, Low 75

I’m leaving rain out of the forecast because it seems like storms are expected to pop up further inland. I know, I know, always have thunderstorms in a Florida forecast. I’m sure I will learn a lesson. Radar is active so far this morning.

Allentown, Pennsylvania

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

I know some people that live in Allentown, and they commute to New York City at times if they need to go in the office. Can you imagine, potentially going through three states in a day just to get to work? We’re only going to be looking at Allentown though, and limit our scope to just the one state.

AT 1051PM, ET, Allentown was reporting clear skies and a temperature of 54 degrees. Clear skies are seen across the region. Allentown is at te eastern flank of an Omega Block across the middle of the country. Low pressure developing on the eastern flank of the features is rising north along the Coast, while a weak cool front off the tail of the system has recently passed Allentown, making life a bit more tolerable after a hot weekend.
As is often the case with blocking patterns, don’t expect much change over the next couple of days. Low pressure will retrograde into Nova Scotia, and the boundary will stall. At varying instances, there may be some additional clouds, and some stronger north breeze. A light shower may crop up on Tuesday.
Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 76, Low 48
Tuesday – Partly cloudy with a chance for light rain, High 80, Low 52

TWC: Tomorrow – Sunshine and clouds mixed. High 78, Low 47
Tuesday – Mostly sunny skies. High 78, Low 53

AW: Tomorrow – Intervals of clouds and sunshine High 77, Low 50
Tuesday – Partly sunny with a brief shower; smoke from distant wildfires can cause hazy skies and poor air quality High 77, Low 55

NWS: Tomorrow – Increasing clouds High 78, Low 48
Tuesday – A slight chance of showers, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms after 2pm. Sunny, High 78, Low 55

WB: Tomorrow – Sunny in the morning, then becoming partly sunny, High 77, Low 48
Tuesday – Mostly sunny. A chance of showers in the afternoon. High 77, Low 53

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 78, Low 49
Tuesday – Partly cloudy with isolated showers and storms, High 79, Low 54

CLI: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy, High 75, Low 46
Tuesday – Light rain showers, High 75, Low 52

It’s pretty warm in the middle of the country, and it was this weekend in Allentown. What a terrific break this weather will be.

nto

Prescott, Arizona

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

Arizona has a reputation as being a hot, nearly desolate place in the summer, outside of Phoenix, which is simply hot. Many population centers in Arizona though, have sought refuge in the cooler mountains in the rest of the state. Prescott is one of those towns!

At 1253PM, PT, Prescott was reporting clear skies and a temperature of 75 degrees. As if to illustrate the point of a chillier time in the mountains, the Sun Valley and Phoenix remained in the upper 90s. Temperatures were decided by elevation, and moisture was relatively low. The dry line straddling the Texas-New Mexico border was active, and keeping Prescott and the southwest out of the monsoon, which was already ongoing in the central Rockies.
Aiding the dry line was a weak area of low pressure that had found its way to an anchorage in the southwestern corner of the US. A blocking pattern in the center of the US was going to keep this regime in place for the next several days at least, with moisture kicked up and around the Grand Canyon State. The low pressure will help ensure temperatures in Prescott don’t match those found at lower elevations and to the south for the duration of the forecast period.
Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 72, Low 49
Saturday – Mostly sunny, high 76, Low 49

TWC: Tomorrow – Mainly sunny, High 73, Low 48
Saturday – Sunny, High 75, low 46

AW: Tomorrow – Plenty of sun; breezy in the afternoon High 77, Low 48
Saturday – Pleasant with plenty of sunshine High 77, Low 44

NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 77, Low 47
Tomorrow – Sunny, High 79, Low 47

WB: Tomorrow – Breezy, Sunny, high 72, Low 42
Saturday – Sunny, high 74, Low 41

WN: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 72, Low 44
Saturday – Mostly sunny, High 78, Low 47

CLI: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 73, Low 48
Saturday – Sunny, high 75, Low 46

The low temperature guidance is completely divergent, and it appears as though many of our competitors are heeding the longer range, larger scope models. I’m wary, because it is the higher resolution models that are going warmer. I tend to trust them a little bit more when terrain is in play. And thus, I am on the higher end of those low forecasts. Here is the satellite centered over New Mexico, highlighting the flow up and around Arizona.

Iowa City, Iowa

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

Its forecast time, friends! It’s been stormy to begin May in Iowa, and the nearby town of Coralville was winged by a tornado not a month ago. I suspect we will enjoy a bit more tranquil weather this week.

At 1152AM, CT, Iowa City was reporting mostly cloudy skies and a temperature of 62 degrees. It was a bit cooler than might typically be expected in May in eastern Iowa, thanks to low pressure parked over eastern Kansas. In fact, Iowa City was a bit warmer than points westward, where a northerly flow was pressing into the region. Upper level flow is weak, so a look towards lower levels will help dictate the weather through the middle of the week.
As the low center moves nearly due eastward through the Ohio Valley, mostly cloudy to overcast conditions will remain in place through tomorrow morning. Finally, there will be a breakthrough in the afternoon, with sunnier skies and warmer temperatures. The tail of a cold front will slump southward through the Upper Midwest, drawing some southerly flow to the region, followed by a dip in temperatures as flow switches to northerly once again on Wednesday
Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy, High 76, Low 55
Wednesday – Mostly cloudy, High 72, Low 53

TWC: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy. High 80, Low 54
Wednesday – Partly cloudy. High 76, Low 51

AW: Tomorrow – Pleasant and warmer with times of clouds and sun High 81, Low 54
Wednesday – Mostly sunny and beautiful High 76, Low 52

NWS: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy, then gradually becoming sunny, High 79, Low 53
Wednesday – Sunny, High 73, Low 52

WB: Tomorrow – Partly sunny in the morning then clearing. High 78, Low 53
Wednesday – Sunny, High 75, Low 53

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 79, Low 53
Wednesday – Mostly sunny, High 74, Low 52

CLI: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 77, Low 52
Wednesday – Sunny, High 73, Low 52

Quite a bit of overcast for the state of Iowa this afternoon, but a warm up is on the way.

Youngstown, Ohio

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We are headed to northeastern Ohio for our month ending forecast. It should be getting warmer right? Right?

At 451PM, ET, Youngstown was reporting a temperature of 55 degrees with cloudy skies and a brisk west-northwest wind. Low pressure is parked over southern Ontario, and is bringing continuing bands of rain to the upper Ohio Valley. At present, the heaviest rain is falling over central Pennsylvania, while another band of lighter showers is evident on radar along I-77 between Canton and Cambridge.
The center of circulation isn’t going to be urged out of Ontario until after the entrance to a strong jet trough comes into being. That won’t be until Wednesday or Thursday of next week, which means reinforcing chilly flow will continue in Youngstown until then. The surface feature is going to continue occluding through the next couple of days, so clouds and rain will become lighter over time. Unfortunately, that makes it more likely for even chillier temperatures as time goes on. It will be quite breezy throughout the beginning of the week, making already cool temperatures feel even chillier.
Tomorrow – Scattered showers throughout the day, High 48, Low 38
Tuesday – Lighter showers with an isolated peek of sunshine, High 44, Low 34

TWC: Tomorrow – Showers early, becoming a steady rain later in the day.  High 47, Low 39
Tuesday – Rain and snow showers in the morning transitioning to light rain in the afternoon. High 41, Low 36

AW: Tomorrow – Cloudy, breezy and colder with a touch of rain High 45, Low 39
Tuesday- Breezy in the morning; cloudy and cold with a passing shower or two; there can be some wet snowflakes mixed in High 42, Low 35

NWS: Tomorrow – Showers, with thunderstorms also possible after 3pm High 48, Low 38
Tuesday – Rain and snow showers, becoming all rain after 9am.  High 44, Low 36

WB: Tomorrow – Showers. A slight chance of a thunderstorm in the afternoon, High 46, Low 40
Tuesday – Snow showers in the morning. Showers, High 41, Low 36

WN: Tomorrow – Cloudy with light showers and isolated thunderstorms, High 48, Low 38
Tuesday – Mostly cloudy with a light wintry mix, High 44, Low 36

CLI: Tomorrow – Rain showers, High 45, Low 37
Tuesday- Rain showers, High 42, Low 35

Frankly, I think any snow shower activity on Tuesday morning will be inconsequential. Like, a flake or two just to make people feel bad because it will be May 2nd. I don’t have the heart to include it in my forecast. Radar is fairly active, reflective of the larger storm centered to the north.