Greensboro, North Carolina

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

The winter track has not been kind to the low country of the Carolinas this year. It’s been quite dry and warm in the eastern Carolinas and a drought, not quite as severe as other parts of the country, has been building. Might we finally get a soaking of rain in North Carolina? Greensboro, in particular?

At 954PM, ET, Greensboro was reporting cloudy skies and a temperature of 48 degrees. Most of the Tar Heel State was reporting clear or fair skies, but Greensboro was under a high overcast. Greensboro’s observation reflects the satellite a bit more accurately, as a feather of clouds is seen extending from the Atlantic through Viginia and on to the Ohio Valley. This is extended from low pressure now headed for Greenland, and following a strong jet streak, running west to east through the region.
Temperatures are expected to remain on the warm side in Greensboro to start the work week. A pulse moving through the northern Great Lakes will connect a warm front through a secondary trough moving behind the offshore front, and will touch off some mountain showers in Virginia and western North Carolina. More high overcast is anticipated in Greensboro on Monday afternoon. The real show will be massing in the High Plains. Warm air is going to start rushing north on Tuesday ahead of this feature, with temperatures beginning to rise, even among the layered clouds across the region.
Tomorrow – mostly cloudy, High 65, Low 42
Tuesday – Mostly cloudy, High 71, Low 49

TWC: Tomorrow – Cloudy. Slight chance of a rain shower. High 64, Low 44
Tuesday -Partly cloudy, High 72, Low 51

AW: Tomorrow – Times of clouds and sun with a shower in places in the afternoon High 62, Low 45
Tuesday – Mostly cloudy; a shower cannot be ruled out High 70, Low 49

NWS: Tomorrow – A slight chance of rain after 1pm. Cloudy High 62, Low 44
Tuesday – A slight chance of rain. Partly sunny, High 71, Low 51

WB: Tomorrow – Cloudy, a slight chance of rain in the afternoon, High 60, Low 44
Tuesday – Partly sunny with a 20 percent chance of rain. High 71, Low 52

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with isolated showers, High 62, Low 44
Tuesday – Partly cloudy, High 71, Low 51

CLI: Tomorrow – Light rain showers, High 61, Low 43
Tuesday – Partly cloudy, High 69, Low 48

I think with the lack of moisture in the area, the ongoing dry, and the warm temperatures, rain just doesn’t ring true to me as a worthwhile forecast. I’ll probably be wrong! Hope I am. Here is satellite, with that feather of clouds in the mid-Atlantic.


Indianapolis, Indiana

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

We’re back to forecasting today, in one of the two states most dear to me. Let’s see if we can get a better showing from Clime.

At 1154PM, ET, Indianapolis was reporting cloudy skies and a temperature of 37. It looked like a wet day was on its way for the Circle City, as a classically comma shaped storm system was moving from the lower Mississippi Valley, where it is currently centered over western Tennessee and shifting to the northeast. A wide shield of non convective precipitation runs from southern Ohio to eastern Oklahoma and was starting to shift north. There is light rain being reported in Shelbyville and moderate rain in Bloomington. The steady rain is expected to arrive soon, and will continue through the morning, at least, with snow expected to mix in by the early afternoon.
The feature is backed by a strong upper level trough, and will be chased by some very cold air and some northwesterly flow. The low after shifting out of the region will lag in the Canadian Maritimes, so the combination of latent moisture, flow off of Lake Michigan and cold air will lead to some persistent light snow in central Indiana through Thursday.
Tomorrow – Rain changing to snow, High 38, Low 34
Thursday – Overcast with scattered clouds, High 34, Low 23

TWC: Tomorrow – Snow during the morning will give way to lingering snow showers during the afternoon. High 37, Low 34
Thursday – Occasional snow showers. High 34, Low 26

AW: Tomorrow – Colder with wet snow, 4-8 in; breezy this morning; hazardous travel expected due to slick roads and heavy snowfall rates High 37, Low 33
Thursday – Cloudy with a couple of flurries, High 33, Low 26

NWS: Tomorrow – Snow before 1pm, then rain and snow likely. The snow could be heavy at times. High 38, Low 32
Thursday – Snow likely, mainly before 1pm. High 33, Low 27

WB: Tomorrow – Rain Likely. Snow mainly in the morning. Snow may be heavy at times in the morning. High 37, Low 33
Thursday – Cloudy. Snow likely in the morning. High 34, Low 25

WN: Tomorrow – Cloudy with heavy wintry mix High 34, Low 31
Thursday – Cloudy with light snow likely High 33, Low 30

CL: Tomorrow – Light Freezing rain, High 38, Low 31
Thursday – Heavy snow showers, High 33, Low 26

Guys, I’m concerned about Clime. Their temperatures are fine, but how they distill a daily forecast is strange. Anyways, I think the change to snow is going to be a little slower than the other outlets have indicated, but some parts of Indy are going to see half a foot of snow with this one. I captured the broader storm system, just because it is so perfect.

Austin, Texas

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

We made it to the first forecast of the year, and the first performance for Clime. Hopefully, the forecast won’t keep Austin weird.

At 753PM, CT, Austin was reporting a temperature of 41 degrees with fair skies. High pressure has settled in over the middle of the country in the wake of a strong area of low pressure that left a trail of destruction through the South yesterday, and has brought a chill to the air across Texas. A broad ridge is encompassing the western US, with an undercutting ridge setting up for the next day or so.
For the forecast purpose, this ridge will remain intact through Saturday and usher in a return of some warmer air. The next round of low pressure will arrive east of the Rockies on Sunday, and will begin to deepen swiftly. While it is likely to become the next significant round of wintry weather, it will merely lead to a warm up in Austin on Sunday.
Tomorrow – Sunny, High 65, Low 36
Sunday – Partly cloudy, High 75, Low 47

TWC: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny skies. High 67, Low 38
Sunday – Partly cloudy skies. High 77, Low 50

AW: Tomorrow – Plenty of sun; a nice start to the weekend High 64, Low 36
Sunday – Warm with intervals of clouds and sunshine; breezy in the afternoon High 73, Low 50

NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny High 65, Low 37
Sunday – Mostly sunny, High 75, Low 48

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 64, Low 38
Sunday – Partly cloudy, High 74, Low 51

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 65, Low 37
Sunday – Partly cloudy, High 75, Low 48

CL: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 67, Low 38
Sunday – Sunny, High 77, Low 52

Oh man, I was worried that Clime was going to start with a carbon copy of The Weather Channel, but then that Sunday low came through. Similarity is explainable though, given how stark the satellite looks.

Lewiston, Idaho

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This forecast is coming out too late to factor into our standings or anything like that, but it will serve as a send off to the newly retiring Forecast.io. Starting on January 1st, we will be using Clime. I would love to use Fox Weather, but they still haven’t managed to produce a website with local forecasting.

At 956PM, MT, Lewiston was reporting cloudy skies with a temperature of 42 degrees. While the west didn’t experiences the frigid temperatures seen in the eastern 2/3 of the country over Christmas, a deep trough has set up over the Rockies, with a strong jet, a so called atmospheric river, pumping moisture into the Pacific Northwest. Winter Weather advisories have been issued just to the north of Lewiston, with more to the south. It remains quite likely that snow is on it’s way in Lewiston as well.
The next round of wet weather is already Pressing ashore in western Washington and Oregon, bringing steady precipitation to the Cascades. Lewiston’s presence between the Cascades and the Rockies of western Montana will spare some of the more significant snows, as will temperatures that will flirt with freezing. Additionally, a prominent surface feature is forecast to organize in the Great Basin, south of Idaho through the next two days, sapping Lewiston’s moisture and ultimately bringing colder temperatures as the snow ends. Nevertheless, snow with a bit of light rain mixed in are possible from mid morning tomorrow and onward for about 24 hours before clearing arrives.
Tomorrow – Light snow with a bit of light rain, High 47, Low 37
Saturday- Early precipitation, generally falling as rain, High 41, Low 32

TWC: Tomorrow – A mix of clouds and sun early, then becoming cloudy later in the day (rain/snow late). High 48, Low 36
Saturday – Considerable cloudiness (Early mixed precip). High 45, Low 35

AW: Tomorrow – A couple of showers of rain or snow in the morning; otherwise, mostly cloudy High 51, Low 37
Saturday – Mostly cloudy High 46, Low 37

NWS: Tomorrow – Rain, mainly before 7am. High 50, Low 37
Saturday – Mostly cloudy,  High 45, Low 36

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with rain or snow in the morning then mostly sunny in the afternoon. High 47, Low 36
Saturday- Partly sunny, High 45, Low 37

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy with isolated showers, High 49, Low 39
Saturday – Partly cloudy, High 42, Low 34

FIO: Tomorrow – Light rain throughout the day. High 47, Low 37
Saturday – Mostly cloudy throughout the day. HIgh 44, Low 34

Clouds and the amount of precipitation in Lewiston will all play a factor. I think there is a huge bust potential overall with this dynamic system in the mountains. I am banking on it skewing colder. Look at all the rain coming for the Cascades at this hour!

And with that, so long, Forecast.io!

Goldsboro, North Carolina

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

Back to the Tar Heel State for a forecast in Goldsboro. A lot of ‘boros in North Carolina.

At 855PM, ET, Goldsboro was reporting mostly cloudy skies with a temperature of 42 degrees. A massive, deep area of low pressure is on it’s way north towards Nova Scotia, and is dangling a cold front that is primarily inactive onshore, save for a thick shield of clouds well to the north of the boundary, and more scattered activity in the Carolinas before the boundary is visible in south Georgia. If the clouds don’t fill in fast enough, Goldsboro may approach freezing, but tomorrow morning will be cloudy.
While the low headed to Nova Scotia is stout, it is going to be quickly forgotten in the CONUS. A strong trough moving out of the Rockies is going to bring a warm front into the region. The feature is going to be a headline maker in the middle of the country with winter weather in the Northern Plains, and a perturbation in the southern part of the boundary is already bringing severe weather to the Southern Plains tonight. The severe storms will continue into the lower Mississippi Valley tomorrow, with continued storm activity along the Gulf Coast Wednesday. The severe storms and most unstable air will stay south of the Carolinas, but in the evening on Wednesday, rain will arrive in Goldsboro, leading to a soggy end of the week.
Tomorrow – Cloudy early, then clearing, High 49, Low 30
Wednesday – Increasing clouds late, some showers before midnight, High 52, Low 28

TWC: Tomorrow – Sunshine. High 50, Low 29
Wednesday – Cloudy skies (Late rain) High 51, Low 27

AW: Tomorrow – Plenty of sun High 51, Low 31
Wednesday – Cloudy and chilly; a passing shower in the afternoon High 50, Low 28

NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny High 49, Low 29
Wednesday – Partly sunny, High 50, Low 29

WB: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 47, Low 30
Wednesday – Mostly cloudy, a slight chance of rain in the afternoon, High 47, Low 31

WN: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 48, Low 31
Wednesday – Partly cloudy, High 49, Low 30

FIO: Tomorrow – Clear throughout the day. High 48, Low 31
Wednesday – Mostly cloudy throughout the day (Late rain). High 49, Low 28

Here is a look at the satellite, with the Carolinas in the happy middle between sheaths of overcast.

Durham, North Carolina

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

We are 4 days into December, and it’s already snowed twice at the Victoria-Weather headquarters. Let’s see how it is going in North Carolina.

At 1130, ET, Durham was reporting a temperature of 39 degrees with clear skies. An elongated ridge ran along the coast, with the southwestern end nosing into the Carolinas, keeping Durham dry this evening. The tenuous existence of the ridge will make the Carolinas susceptible to wet weather over the next couple of days, despite the clear skies at present.
There is a low level perturbation that is moving east out of northern Alabama tonight, and will attempt to wrap under the southern Appalachians and into the Carolina Plains with limited success. A more notable feature moving through Canada will dangle a cold front that eventually catches up to the perturbation lurking in the southeast. This boundary will more effectively tap into the moisture drawn in tomorrow morning, leading to some clouds and light rain throughout the day on Tuesday. Don’t expect the front to ever reach Durham, however, so a dramatic cool down will be averted.
Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 55, Low 32
Tuesday – Mostly cloudy with some light rain, High 59, Low 46

TWC: Tomorrow – Considerable cloudiness. High 55, Low 29
Tuesday – Cloudy with showers High 58, Low 45

AW: Tomorrow – Some sunshine giving way to clouds High 54, Low 29
Tuesday – Cloudy with a passing shower High 58, Low 44

NWS: Tomorrow -Partly sunny, High 53, Low 29
Tuesday – A chance of rain before 8am, then showers likely, mainly between 8am and 2pm. Cloudy High 59, Low 43

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy, late rain High 53, Low 30
Tuesday – Cloudy. Showers mainly in the morning. High 59, Low 45

WN: Tomorrow – Partly Cloudy, High 53, Low 31
Tuesday – Mostly cloudy with showers likely, High 57, Low 43

FIO: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy throughout the day. High 51, Low 35
Tuesday – Rain until night, starting again in the afternoon. High 59, Low 484

Satellite tonight shows whispers of clouds over Durham, but a pleasant day is promised ahead, unless you ask Weatherbug.

,

Tulsa, Oklahoma

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

Today’s forecast takes us to another part of the country that is known for strong spring time weather, after Decatur earlier this week. Will Tulsa see cool and calm like Decatur did, or will we see something different?

At 953AM, Tulsa was reporting a brisk 42 degrees with mostly cloudy skies and wind gusting over 20mph. The jet was quite strong, which is not unusual for the time of year, and ridging through the center of the country. High pressure centered over the Ohio Valley was generating the brisk wind on it’s back side, with return flow bringing some of the cloud and chances for rain in the southern Plains.
Over the Rockies, this same strong jet is producing a trough, which hasn’t fully materialized into a surface low yet, thanks to the local terrain. Expect a deep area of low pressure to emerge over South Dakota tomorrow morning, enhancing the windy conditions over Tulsa. Flow will be from the southwest, with high pressure still nosing into the northern Gulf, and this will staunch moisture flow into Oklahoma. The associated cold front will arrive late Friday with similarly gusty winds, and a significant Saturday cool down.
Tomorrow – Passing clouds, breezy, High 67, Low 48
Saturday – Partly cloudy, colder but less windy, High 49, Low 32

TWC: Tomorrow – Overcast. High 65, Low 46
Saturday – Partly cloudy skies. High 49, Low 33

AW: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy, windy and warmer High 64, Low 47
Saturday – Mostly cloudy and cooler High 48, Low 30

NWS: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy, High 66, Low 46
Saturday – Mostly sunny, High 51, Low 35

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy in the morning, then becoming partly sunny. Breezy, High 65, Low 47
Saturday – Mostly sunny, High 50, Low 37

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 65, Low 47
Saturday – Partly cloudy, High 46, Low 36

FIO: Tomorrow – Windy in the morning and afternoon. High 64, Low 44
Saturday – Windy overnight. High 53, Low 33

The high on Saturday will probably come at midnight. The WeatherNation hourly forecast doesn’t extend that far out, but they shouldn’t be too far off. Check out the satellite, showing clouds wrapping around high pressure in Texas and Oklahoma.

Decatur, Alabama

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

Tonight’s forecast takes us to an area under threat for severe weather. The strongest storms are in Mississippi, but northern Alabama remains in a slight risk for severe weather.

At 853PM, CT, Decatur was reporting cloudy skies and a temperature of 63 degrees. Low clouds and cool temperatures across northern Alabama suggest that the threat for severe weather is likely over, however, there is plenty of rain and thunder across central Tennessee that looms as a possibility overnight. Flash flooding is always a possibility, but the strong winds and tornadoes will remain to the southwest.
The parent area of low pressure associated with tonight’s storms is moving north of the Great Lakes, while a secondary vorticity maximum was centered over western Kentucky, providing the atmospheric spin, and emphasis on moisture importation to the region tonight. As a unit, this feature is progressing swiftly to the east, and the threat of rain should be clear of Decatur by sunrise. The high pressure that builds behind this system will be stout but transient. The next two days will be cool and clear, a recovery after a rainy and stormy night.
Tomorrow – Rain ending early, then becoming sunny, High 58, Low 30
Thursday – Sunny, High 52, Low 27

TWC: Tomorrow – Some clouds in the morning will give way to mainly sunny skies for the afternoon (early rain). High 62, Low 33
Thursday – Some clouds in the morning will give way to mainly sunny skies for the afternoon. High 52, Low 29

AW: Tomorrow – Cooler with clouds giving way to sun; breezy in the afternoon (Early Rain) High 60, Low 34
Thursday – Sunshine, High 52, Low 29

NWS: Tomorrow – Partly sunny, then gradually becoming sunny, (Rain early) High 67, Low 36
Thursday – Mostly sunny, High 51, Low 31

WB: Tomorrow – Much cooler, mostly sunny (Early rain), High 62, Low 33
Thursday – Partly cloudy, High 50, Low 30

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy with showers and scattered storms, High 64, Low 36
Thursday – Partly cloudy, High 51, Low 32

FIO: Tomorrow – Heavy rain overnight and in the morning. High 63, Low 34
Thursday – Partly cloudy throughout the day. High 51, Low 29

Temperatures tomorrow will be falling through the day as high pressure settles in. Some rain looms to the northwest, but mercifully, none of it will bring terrible storms.

Racine, Wisconsin

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

Today’s forecast takes us to southeastern Wisconsin. Thanksgiving week in the Midwest seems appropriate.

At 1053AM, CT, Racine was reporting a temperature of 40 degrees with clear skies. An area of low pressure over eastern Canada was inducing a strong west wind across Wisconsin, which made things feel cool, but the off shore breeze allowed temperatures to reach 40 and ensured that clouds stayed over Lake Michigan.
The wave over Canada will be replaced by weak low pressure in the Canadian Prairies. The change in pattern will tamp down on the gusty winds, and the change in flow around the next area of low pressure will bring about some southerly flow, and warmer temperatures for mid-week.
Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 44, Low 23
Wednesday – Partly cloudy, High 48, Low 30

TWC: Tomorrow – Sunny along with a few clouds. High 44, Low 26
Wednesday – Mostly sunny. High 49, Low 27

AW: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny; quiet weather for early holiday travelers High 45, Low 28
Wednesday – Sunny to partly cloudy High 50, Low 29

NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 44, Low 25
Wednesday – Sunny High 49, Low 27

WB: Tomorrow – Partly sunny in the morning, then clearing, High 43, Low 25
Wednesday – Sunny, High 47, Low 30

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 42, Low 27
Wednesday – Mostly sunny, High 48, Low 31

FIO: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy throughout the day. High 43, Low 28
Wednesday – Partly cloudy throughout the day. High 48, Low 31

Check out the satellite of the Great Lakes. The westerly flow is leading to a cloudy day in Michigan, but not in Wisconsin.

Jefferson City, Missouri

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

We are heading back to Missouri for our forecast today, and this time, we are taking it to the manager, visiting the state capital.

At 553AM, CT, Jefferson City was reporting clear skies and a temperature of 65 degrees with clear skies. Low pressure centered over the Upper Midwest is producing a warm front that ranged through the northern Great Lakes, and was drawing forth a significant warm surge through the Mississippi Valley, bringing forth the unusual warmth in early November.
As with most autumnal systems, there is a strong cold front dangling off the back end of the low pressure center, This active pattern is also punctuated by the remnants of Hurricane Nicole over Florida, and drifting north into southern Appalachia. The cold front will be active with showers and storms over northwestern Missouri this afternoon and evening, with the chance of a shower arriving near sunrise tomorrow. Nicole, however, will sap most of the moisture moving towards Jefferson City, which will tone down the rain chances through the day Friday. That said, mid layer clouds and a rush of cooler air will still trail the boundary, making for a chilly start to the weekend.
Tomorrow – Early showers lead to clouds and cold, High 52, Low 30
Saturday – Partly cloudy but colder, High 37, Low 22

TWC: Tomorrow – Cloudy skies early will become partly cloudy later in the day. Slight chance of a rain shower. High 51, Low 33
Saturday – Sunshine and clouds mixed High 40, Low 24

AW: Tomorrow – A passing shower in the morning; otherwise, partly to mostly sunny and cooler; the colder weather will linger into next week High 53, Low 32
Saturday – Mostly sunny and cold High 40, Low 24

NWS: Tomorrow – Cloudy through mid morning, then gradual clearing, (early storms) High 50, Low 30
Saturday – Sunny High 38, Low 24

WB: Tomorrow – Sunny (early rain), High 53, Low 32
Saturday – Sunny, High 40, Low 26

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 50, Low 34
Saturday – Mostly sunny, High 38, Low 24

FIO: Tomorrow – Rain overnight and in the morning. High 51, Low 31
Saturday – Clear throughout the day. High 40, Low 25

The cold front over northern Missouri is looming. Enjoy the heat today, because winter is around the corner.