Pocatello, Idaho

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

I saw that we are on the cusp of some changes to the pattern in the interior northwest. It is October, so perhaps you can guess what kind of changes those might be.

At 1153AM, MT, Pocatello was reporting clear skies and a temperature of 62. The clear skies were leading to chilly nights with the low dew points, but the sunshine meant temperatures were unbound in the afternoon, and record highs have been dotting the region of late. The low trough off the west coast in conjunction with the ridge has established what is known as a Rex Block, stifling flow in Idaho.
The western US is going to remain under this Rex Block until the weekend, and flow through the region will remain fairly stagnated. Expect some morning haze or smog, especially in the valleys, thanks to the lack of flow at the surface, but continued warm temperatures and sunny skies in the afternoon. Things will be quite a bit different this weekend, however.
Tomorrow – Sunny with haze, High 76, Low 35
Wednesday – Sunny, hazy in the morning, High 73, Low 34

TWC: Tomorrow – Sunny skies High 76, Low 36
Wednesday – Intervals of clouds and sunshine. High 74, Low 35

AW: Tomorrow – Warm with plenty of sunshine High 76, Low 34
Wednesday – Brilliant sunshine and warm with the temperature approaching the record of 78 set in 1950 High 75, Low 35

NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 74, Low 42
Wednesday – Sunny, High 73, Low 43

WB: Tomorrow – Sunny, areas of frost in the morning, High 72, Low 35
Wednesday – Sunny, High 71, Low 36

WN: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 74, Low 42
Wednesday – Mostly sunny, High 73, Low 43

FIO: Tomorrow – Clear throughout the day. High 74, Low 40
Wednesday – Partly cloudy throughout the day. High 72, Low 37

Pretty different forecast lows, but consistent elsewhere. Makes sense when the satellite imagery looks like this. By the way, the change I hinted at in the intro is coming over the weekend. It’s going to get cold and snowy for a lot of the Northwest.

Brownsville, Texas

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

Brownsville is part of a surprisingly well populated stretch in the far southern part of Texas, including Harlingen and McAllen. Brownsville is the furthest south, and closest to the Gulf of Mexico. It also happens to be significantly further from any town, excepting Harlingen and McAllen, than anyone really expects.

At 953AM, CT, Brownsville was reporting a temperature of 83 degrees with clear skies. A dry line was spread through central Texas, and while the Dallas area had dew points in the the 40s, it was already in the mid 70s along the Rio Grande. There was a threat for strong thunderstorms closer to Corpus Christi this afternoon, and some of those shower and thunderstorms flaring south towards Brownsville can’t be ruled out later today. Additionally, Tropical Storm Karl was churning away in the Bay of Campeche. Tropical Storm Warnings extended to Matamoros on the other side of the Rio Grande, but his presence only raised the threat for coastal thunderstorms this afternoon.
Karl is moving southward, expected to landfall near Coatzcoalcos on the Campeche coast, so the attention will be turned to the dry line to the north of Brownsville. Without the counterclockwise rotation from Karl, the dry line will lose it’s potency as well. The dry line dichotomy will linger through the period, but the threat for showers and storms will abate over deep south Texas. As Karl continues to waste away in Central America, Brownsville will be more stable than normal for a hot humid stretch, with mostly sunny skies and temperatures preparing to climb.
Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 90, Low 73
Saturday – Mostly sunny, High 92, Low 73

TWC: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy with afternoon showers or thunderstorms. High 89, Low 73
Saturday – Intervals of clouds and sunshine. High 92, Low 73

AW: Tomorrow – Partly sunny with a thundershower in spots in the afternoon High 90, Low 73
Saturday – Partly sunny and humid; breezy in the afternoon High 91, Low 72

NWS: Tomorrow – A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly sunny High 90, Low 74
Saturday – Mostly sunny, High 92, Low 74

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 89, Low 74
Saturday – Mostly sunny, high 90, Low 73

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 90, Low 74
Saturday – Mostly sunny, High 72, Low 74

FIO: Tomorrow – Humid and partly cloudy throughout the day. High 87, Low 73
Saturday – Humid and partly cloudy throughout the day. High 88, Low 73

Its strange that the driest forecast is the coolest forecast. Strange. Karl is showing up dramatically on the Gulf satellite imagery.

Memories of NorCal

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Prepandemic, my wife and I went to Sonoma for a friend’s wedding. Not only did I end up underdressed for the wedding (it was very fancy, and I was not), but I was also underdressed for the weather. It was significantly colder than expected, and I simply didn’t have enough warm weather gear for the blustery winds and chilly air. Beautiful country though. At the end of September, we put together a forecast for Santa Rosa, not far from Sonoma, and I had some serious flashbacks. After a gorgeous day on September 30th, onshore flow brought more clouds and chilly north Pacific air into Santa Rosa. Temperature forecasts were warm by a matter of double digits. Not great! The Weather Channel picked up a victory, but not one to be proud.
Actuals: September 30th – High 88, Low 50
October 1st, High 65, Low 51

Grade: D

Fayetteville, Arkansas

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

There are two options for Fayettevilles in the United States. I’ve only been to the one in Arkansas, and it is definitely not what you expect in “Arkansas” given the haven of Fortune 500 companies, University and tourism. What kind of weather is coming their way?

At 853PM, CT, Fayetteville was reporting a temperature of 59 degrees with clear skies. It was a continuation of dry weather, and there were burn bans across most of the region. The Ozarks were seeing cooler temperatures than surrounding regions, owing to the terrain of northwest Arkansas.
Surface high pressure is dropping southward within a complicated jet trough. The nature of the troughing pattern is such that precipitation is being inhibited and moisture is being staunched at the Gulf. This will lead to more quiet weather tomorrow, however as the surface ridge sinks south, baroclinicity will arrive across the region, importing some moisture from the monsoon. This isn’t going to lead to a lot of wet weather, but some rain and clouds are possible overnight Monday into Tuesday. Expect a breezier day on Tuesday.
Tomorrow – Increasing clouds with some late rain, High 79, Low 52
Tuesday – Mostly cloudy, with some early showers, High 79, Low 58

TWC: Tomorrow – Some sun in the morning with increasing clouds during the afternoon. (PM storms), High 78, Low 53
Tuesday – Cloudy. Slight chance of a rain shower. High 81, Low 61

AW: Tomorrow – Some sun, then turning cloudy High 77, Low 54
Tuesday – Beautiful with periods of clouds and sun High 79, Low 61

NWS: Tomorrow – Partly sunny, High 80, Low 54
Tuesday – A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms before 1pm. Mostly cloudy High 80, Low 60

WB: Tomorrow – Partly sunny, High 77, Low 56
Tuesday – Mostly cloudy. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms in the morning. High 80, Low 63

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 80, Low 53
Tuesday – Mostly cloudy with isolated storms, High 80, Low 60

FIO: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy throughout the day. High 78, Low 56
Tuesday – Possible light rain in the morning. High 79, Low 60

It’s fun when there is a variety to the precipitation forecasts. We’ll see how it plays out! Not much on satellite right now, but it will likely change in the next 48 hours.

Same old New Orleans

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The weather in the Big Easy was hot and humid towards the end of September. The humidity was a real issue, with temperatures failing to dip below the 78 degree mark in either the 24th or the 25th. At least it didn’t rain though! Victoria-Weather saw our personal hot September fritter away with a cooler forecast and a forecast for rain, but Accuweather nabbed the victory in New Orleans.
Actuals: Saturday Sep 24th, High 92, Low 78
Sunday Sep 25th, High 91, Low 81

Grade: B-C

Santa Rosa, California

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

I spent quite a bit of time tweeting @Vic_WX as Hurricane Ian made landfall near Punta Gorda and Fort Myers, Florida. I suggest a follow for discussion on live and breaking news stories like Ian.

Our forecast today will be in the North Bay. Perhaps even further north than just the North Bay, deeper into Wine Country. It’s a gorgeous part of the weather when the temperatures are cooperative. It could go either way in September!

At 153PM, PT, Santa Rosa was reporting clear skies and a temperature of 81 degrees. A trough was dipping into the northern Rockies, riding on the eastern flank of a coastal ridge. Pleasant conditions were found throughout the coast, with an onshore flow keeping temperatures manageable.
Through the forecast period, the low in the northern Rockies will become orphaned from a north riding jet, while the weak ridge at the coast will continue to provide a northwesterly flow. Sunshine will continue, and so to will fairly pleasant, even cooler temperatures.
Tomorrow – Sunny, High 85, Low 51
Saturday – Remaining sunny, but with scattered clouds, High 82, Low 52

TWC: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 86, Low 52
Saturday – Mostly sunny, High 78, Low 52

AW: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 84, Low 52
Saturday – Mostly sunny and pleasant High 79, Low 52

NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 86, Low 55
Saturday – Sunny, High 82, Low 53

WB: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 83, Low 55
Saturday – Partly Cloudy in the morning then becoming sunny. Patchy fog in the morning, High 75, Low 55

WN: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 87, Low 55
Saturday – Mostly sunny, High 81, Low 53

FIO: Tomorrow – Clear throughout the day. High 82, Low 55
Saturday – Clear throughout the day. High 76, Low 52

The satellite shows an almost entirely clear California, save for a little cumulus over the far southern part of the state. Not bad!

Divergent fortunes in Idaho Falls

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I spent quite a bit of time tweeting @Vic_WX as Hurricane Ian made landfall near Punta Gorda and Fort Myers, Florida. I suggest a follow for discussion on live and breaking news stories like Ian.

Last week, Idaho Falls was in the midst of a warm up that brought it close to record warmth for this time of year. With a trough off to the northwest, it seemed like these figures were about to change. How fast and how much was up for debate, though. Victoria-Weather and The Weather Channel were on the right side of the debate, insisting that it would be “not very quickly” and “by about 5 degrees”. Actually, the issue for those that struggled with this forecast was a belief in more cloud cover for the area, and missed cold on the highs and warm on the lows. this warmth thanks to early sunshine and clear skies meanth much rainier storms when the clouds finally did fill in.
Actuals: 9/20 – High 84, low 42
9/21 – .68 inches of rain and thunderstorms, High 79, Low 45

Grade B-D

Coming soon…

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I would venture that more ink gets spilled on the weather in the national press this time of year than any other. We are in the midst of hurricane season (and will have Ian landfall soon), enduring California Fire season, all while getting ready for fall and winter to show up and really turn things on their heads. Check out this college town-heavy schedule for the week.

Fayetteville, Arkansas

Brownsville, Texas

Pocatello, Idaho

Columbia, Missouri

Road Trip from Columbia to Fond du Lac, WI

College Station, Texas

New Orleans, Louisiana

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

We’ve had quiet tropics, and the southern US is looking at more quiet weather this week, but even now, more than a week out and with nothing fully developed, the eyes of Louisiana are on the Venezuelan coast, where a tropical feature may develop and threaten the Gulf Coast. What before then? That’s where we come in.

At 856PM, CT, New Orleans was reporting fair skies with a temperature of 86 degrees. The satellite image of the Gulf of Mexico was a little bit murkier than the model analysis, which indicated the tail of a cold front over the northern Gulf, extending from Hurricane Fiona, bearing down on Nova Scotia.
As Fiona presses into the Canadian Maritimes, the attendant boundary will diminish. Low pressure in the Great Lakes will produce a cool front through the Ozarks, advancing southward. Though not expected to be terribly robust, it will be enough to induce an onshore flow, and a return of some clouds and spotty rain showers around New Orleans by Sunday evening.
Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 90, Low 75
Sunday – Mostly sunny, late showers and storms in the area, High 91, Low 74

TWC: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 93, Low 77
Sunday – Sunshine and clouds mixed. A stray shower or thunderstorm is possible. High 94, Low 77

AW: Tomorrow – Sunny to partly cloudy High 92, Low 76
Sunday – Humid with clouds and breaks of sun High 91, Low 75

NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 90, Low 76
Sunday – Sunny, High 91, Low 75

WB: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 90, Low 76
Sunday – Sunny, High 91, Low 76

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 90, Low 76
Sunday – Mostly sunny, High 91, Low 75

FIO: Tomorrow – Humid throughout the day. High 89, Low 76
Sunday – Humid and partly cloudy throughout the day. High 90, Low 75

Pretty consistent numbers across the board, thanks toa fairly quiet pattern, for the time being. The storm near Venezuela was named Ian while I was writing this post. For the moment, he looks like he will curl into the Gulf Coast of Florida, but the most recent GFS has a bit more northerly track than the consensus. It’s all still pretty variable for now. Here is the currently tranquil satellite imagery..

Cooler and comfortable

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Overnight lows in the 50s are like gifts, no matter where you are, but especially in a place like Gadsden, Alabama, where the persistent summertime humidity makes the nights cloying and hard to sleep through. This past weekend likely led to a lot of well rested residents, especially since manageable highs in the mid 80s should have meant a lot was accomplished during the day as well. Victoria-Weather can be proud of our accomplishment, earning the forecast victory.
Actuals: Saturday, High 85, Low 55
Sunday, High 86, Low 59

Grade: A-C