from Victoria-Weather
Severe weather has been pretty sparse in Minnesota lately, but we have a severe thunderstorm watch just issued, and it is on the very northern end of the thunderstorm risk today. There is a little bit of activity in eastern Minnesota so far, but it seems like a strange sight! We’ll see how it goes.
I think, if anything, the “updates” have made me feel better, keeping in touch wit the weather world and sharing my thoughts on the site, instead of the meandering carcass of Twitter makes this site seem more current and me more engaged. That said, this has been a heck of a month, and the forecast we are verifying today, in Harrisonburg, Virginia, somehow occurred 2 weeks ago. At that time, a feature was attempting to ascend and descend the Appalachians into Harrisonburg, and I can now report, it was successful. Over the course of that weekend, nearly 3/4ths of an inch of rain fell, about as expected. Heavier thunderstorms on Saturday, light rain on Sunday morning, followed by a fairly manageable end to the weekend. Clime missed the thunder on Saturday, somehow, but everyone else hit on that front, and The Weather Channel continued a strong month, and earned the W.
Actuals: Saturday July 15th, .67 inches of rain in a thunderstorm, High 89, Low 63
Sunday – .05 inches of rain, High 85, Low 68
Grade: A – B
There is a bit of cooler air filtering into the northern US, slowly but surely. Bands of training thunderstorms are expected in the Upper Midwest today. The threat for storms is in the hail and wind variety, particularly when they get going later today. The jet is lingering near the Canadian border, so don’t expect this action to move further south. Sure, it’s hot down there, but at least it isn’t stormy, right?
The heat is on across the country, as you have no doubt felt and heard about on the news. The really hot weather is expected to ease everywhere, but a true return to normal is coming for New England and California by the beginning of August. As luck with have it, that is the most populous part of the country
There is some heavy weather in the northern Plains this evening, including tornado warnings in South Dakota and Nebraska. Fortunately, this activity is in pretty remote terrain, which makes tomorrows threat more dangerous, even if the storms were at the same level as today’s, because Michigan, especially lower Michigan, is well populated.
Tornadoes and strong winds will be the primary concern, though hail is a threat as well.
The risk was marginal initially, but now we are up to a slight with severe hail storms and a severe thunderstorm watch in New York. As these storms pulse down, winds could take down some branches in the forested parts of the eMpire State.
Louisville has a greater impact on the United States than you might expect. It’s home to Yum! Brands and UPS, and was the cihildhood home of Muhammed Ali and Diane Sawyer. The city is pretty proud of their history, so remember that next time you hear about the Kentucky Derby or Louisville Sluggers.
At 1058AM, CT, Louisville was reporting a temperature of 82 degrees and mostly cloudy skies. There is a weak trough moving through Kentucky this morning that is producing a band of cumulus from about Jackson, Ohio to Kentucky Lake. There may be a few showers associated with this this afternoon, but they will keep south of Louisville.
A narrow trough over the Great Lakes is the parent of this trough, but the ridge of hot weather that most of the nation is experiencing will force that boundary and any hospitable air back to the northeast. There may be a passing shower on Tuesday as this air mass transition takes place, but by Wednesday, this dome of hot air will take hold and suppress any convective activity. Record highs are possible.
Tomorrow – Isolated showers and storms, High 93, Low 71
Wednesday – Hot and humid, mostly sunny, High 96, Low 74
TWC: Tomorrow – Intervals of clouds and sunshine High 91, Low 69
Wednesday – Sunshine and clouds mixed (morning storms). High 95, Low 73
AW: Tomorrow – Humid with sun and some clouds; a thunderstorm in spots in the afternoon High 90, Low 69
Wednesday -Intervals of clouds and sunshine High 92, Low 73
NWS: Tomorrow – Isolated showers and thunderstorms after 2pm. Mostly sunny, High 89, Low 68
Wednesday – Mostly sunny, High 90, Low 73
WB: Mostly sunny with isolated thunderstorms, High 89, Low 71
Wednesday – Mostly sunny, High 92, Low 70
WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy with isolated thunderstorms, High 89, Low 68
Wednesday – Partly cloudy with light rain showers, High 90, Low 73
CLI: Tomorrow – Light rain showers, High 90, Low 72
Wednesday – Partly cloudy, High 95, Low 73
The most interesting part of this forecast for me is that WeatherNation has the same temperatures but a different precipitation forecast than the Weather Service. Take a look at the satellite imagery below, showing that band of clouds south of Louisville.
On June 9th, we put together a forecast for Denver. If you know anything about the city, you know that the airport is well to the east of town in the vast prarieland of the eastern part of the state. It’s otherwise barren country. Further west are the Rockies and the front range. Generally speaking, it’s a little bit cooler in the city than at the airport because of the terrain. A bit of a reverse urban heat island. This is all important background for the realization that downtown Denver, which is where the forecast verified, is different by a few degrees than the airport, which is the best source for model output statistics. So, we forecast, we went uphill and we verified. Clime, what with the algorithms and had the top temperature forecast, but their erroneuous rain forecast on the morning of the 10th meant Victoria-Weather and The Weather Channel claimed a share of the win as well.
Monday July 10th, High 89, Low 60
Tuesday – July 11th, Hgh 92, Low 64
Grade: B-Ci
There isn’t a lot of organization to the weather activity with the current pattern, but it’s so warm, and so humid that they are likely to just pop up here and there. Unless you are travelling from Pittsburgh to Jackson and west to Oklahoma City, then you should be ok.
I’m looking a little bit at the Harrisonburg forecast from a few days ago, and I am reminded that, because of the combination of high population and density of vegetation, the region is very sensitive to wind storms. While in the Plains or Midwest, you see long track lines of severe weather with the heaviest storms, you get mottled spasms of wind reports out east like they did over the weekend in the Atlantic Coastal Plains.
