Our first forecast in the month of March went pretty well, frankly. There was a late developing, potentially virulent storm headed towards the Great Lakes that lead to an array of precipitation forecasts in Michigan City. In the end, on March 9th, Michigan City saw precipitation in the evening, which changed to all snow quite quickly. This happened sooner than anticipated, but it wasn’t doom and gloom for most of the forecasts, at least those that called for precipitation. The temperatures were baked in before the precipitation was expected, so for those that called for rain, the forecast worked well. Victoria-Weather started the month with a W. Actuals: March 8th, High 46, Low 30 March 9th, Trace of precipitation, HIgh 43, Low 32
On this, the first day of the round of 64 in the NCAA tournament, we go to Utica, a town that sure sounds like a college town. Alas, they are not home to any Division 1 universities, but they are situated in the scenic Adirondacks.
At 153PM, ET, Utica/Rome was reporting a temperature of 43 degrees with overcast skies. The temperatures have bounced back nicely in the wake of the first real nor’easter of the season, however the climb in temperatures is aided by another system developing in the Mississippi Valley. Southerly winds will continue through the mid Atlantic today, bringing even more warm air to Utica, continuing what has been a very toasty winter season, though at this point in the year, and this system in particular are quite spring like. The storm is responsible for severe weather in the Red River Valley that will become more widespread this afternoon. Of more pertinence to the Utica region is the sloppy mix in the Northern Plains. As most systems do, this feature is starting its poleward motion, and at this time even the northern flank of this feature is mixing with rain. This suggests that warmer air will pull further north, and as the system moves through, Utica can expect an all rain event tomorrow. The rain will be fairly light with a dry slot nosing into the Adirondacks, and temperatures will fall off on Saturday as the cold air arrives. By that point, most of the moisture will have pressed into Canada, and a chilly breeze will be more noticeable than the few flakes in the evening. Tomorrow – Scattered showers, High 44, Low 32 Saturday – Chilly and breezy with a little bit of flurry activity late, High 35, Low 24
TWC: Tomorrow – Rain, High 45, Low 30 Saturday- Mostly cloudy. Snow showers around in the afternoon. High 37, Low 30
AW: Tomorrow – Periods of rain, High 47, Low 32 Saturday – Mostly cloudy with a couple of snow showers; any heavy snow shower could cover the ground quickly and reduce visibility High 40, Low 26
NWS: Tomorrow – Showers, mainly after 9am High 45, Low 31 Saturday – A chance of snow showers after 3pm High 37, Low 25
WB: Tomorrow – Rain showers with freezing rain likely in the morning with rain showers in the afternoon, High 42, Low 32 Saturday – Partly sunny in the morning then becoming mostly cloudy. A 40% chance of snow showers, High 36, Low 24
WN: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with showers, High 45, Low 31 Saturday – Windy with snow showers possible, High 35, Low 29
CLI: Tomorrow – Drizzle, High 45, Low 32 Saturday – Light snow, High 39, Low 23
More wet weather is on the way for Utica. It seems pretty ok for now, but the next feature looms.
We’re going to start the week with what should be a pretty quick jaunt. It won’t be, because we will be navigating the Chicagoland region, but it definitely SHOULD be. The drive will be nearly 3 1/2 hours, at a glacial pace of 63mph.
Michigan City, Indiana
A weak little wave is moving through the Great Lakes this evening, and it will generally be in the central and eastern Great Lakes before the drive begins on Monday. I don’t think there will be much in the way of flurry activity south of Lake Michigan, though it can’t be ruled out, especially in Michigan City and Laporte. I would expect some dryer skies through Chicago proper, but as we approach Waukegon and north through Milwaukee, I would expect flurries to pick up again. This weak little feature is wrapping in a considerable amount of light snow that just doesn’t want to cut out, so I have to believe it will still be snowing in Fond du Lac when we arrive. Nothing accumulating, but it will be happening.
We’re headed to eastern Wisconsin for our forecast this afternoon. Eastern Wisconsin is a well populated region, but Fond du Lac is interesting in that it is offset from Lake Michigan, along with Appleton, on Lake Winnebago. The weather is bound to be different than Green Bay or Milwaukee.
At 253PM, CT, Fond du Lac was reporting a temperature of 36 degrees with overcast skies. A lingering winter weather advisory was still out for Fond Du Lac, but the thrust of the precipitation was already falling over Lake Michigan. Circulation associated with this system was centered just to the west of Wausau, and though the bulk of the snow is out of the region, light flurries are expected to persist in America’s Dairyland overnight and into the wee hours tomorrow morning. After that, the short wave leading to the snow in the area today will continue towards the easter Great Lakes, and a narrow but stout ridge of high pressure will set up in the Upper Midwest and move east into Wisconsin. As a result, Monday afternoon and the day on Tuesday will be seasonably pleasant. Tomorrow – Snow early, then clearing and cooling, High 29, Low 20 Tuesday – Sunny, High 31, Low 11
TWC: Tomorrow – Cloudy (early snow), High 29, Low 22 Tuesday – Mostly sunny, High 29, Low 10
AW: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with flurries; breezy in the morning, then becoming chilly High 31, Low 22 Tuesday – Plenty of sunshine, but chilly High 32, Low 11
NWS: Tomorrow – Snow likely, mainly before 7am, then a chance of flurries after 2pm. Mostly cloudy, High 29, Low 21 Tuesday – Sunny High 29, Low 10
WB: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy. Chance of light snow in the morning, then chance of flurries in the afternoon, High 29, Low 24 Tuesday- Sunny, High 29, Low 14
WN: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with light snow showers, High 29, Low 20 Tuesday – Mostly sunny, High 29, Low 10
CLI: Tomorrow – Light snow showers, High 28, Low 19 Tuesday – Sunny, High 28, Low 12
The threat for snow is going to be more of the nuisance variety, but it will be persistent. The threat of this forecast is the pending cold to start the week.
I think we can all agree that Michigan City, Indiana is a strange name for a town that is part of the greater Chicagoland region, yes?
At 255PM, ET, Michigan City was reporting a temperature of 39 degrees with clear skies. A brisk flow is coming off of Lake Michigan, a true lake breeze flowing from the colder dense air to relatively warm air of northern Indiana, absent of prevailing synoptic flow. Temperatures were about 5 or 6 degrees warmer away from the Lake. A broad ridge aloft is helping the southern Great Lakes to dry out, and it should be a fairly pleasant middle of the week in Michigan City. A broad area of low pressure in the Rockies and High Plains bears watching, however. It will be slow in transpiring, but low pressure will develop at the surface through the day on Saturday. Precipitation will arrive in Michigan City late on Thursday. It is likely to be a chilly rain, but given the uncertainty wrought by the lateness in development of this feature, snow cannot be left out of the forecast. Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 44, Low 30 Thursday – Increasing clouds with a late rain-snow mix, High 41, Low 32
TWC: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy skies High 43, Low 30 Thursday – Overcast. High 42, Low 30
AW: Tomorrow – Sun and clouds, High 41, Low 29 Thursday – Cloudy, late rain and snow, High 42, Low 33
NWS: Tomorrow – Partly sunny High 42, Low 30 Thursday – Mostly cloudy, Late rain/snow, High 44, Low 30
WB: Tomorrow – Cloudy, high 42, Low 32 Thursday – Cloudy, high 42, Low 32
WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 42, Low 30 Thursday – Partly cloudy, High 44, Low 30
CLI: Tomorrow – Overcast, High 42, Low 29 Thursday – Overcast, High 41, Low 29
I think you can see some of the uncertainty with the model guidance showing up in the forecast. The models aren’t spread over a wide range, but without any thing fully developed yet, there is a lack of precipitation commitment. Look how clear it is right now! And you’re telling me it might snow?
Back in Mid February, Greensboro was in the midst of a comfortable stretch of weather, at odds with what the calendar said. On the 20th and 21st, the weather was at the very least interesting. On the 20th, a splash of rain and a cold front meant temperatures were able only to reach 60 degrees. After that frontal passage, the high jumped to 73 on the 21st. Those highs and lows were both as low as (20th) and higher than (21st) all of the forecast highs. As it worked out, Clime was able to navigate their first forecast win, owing their victory to a dry forecast on the 21st. Actuals: February 20th, .03″ of rain, High 60, Low 44 February 21st, High 73, Low 47
There is a healthy respect for hurricanes, which is continually reinforced by some vicious storms over the past few years. National Hurricane Center forecasts lead to drastic action, and with the verification of the storms coming ashore and doing incomprehensible damage, even the most skeptical citizens are driven to take precautions when a hurricane looms.
Severe weather has garnered a fair bit of respect as well, and we are starting to see the dawning of this year’s severe season. We usually start with some storms in the lower Mississippi Valley. An outbreak in the state of Mississippi in January or February is practically a rite of passage at this point, and we’ve had a couple of those already. This week, we’ve also seen strong storms in the traditional tornado alley of Oklahoma and Kansas.
Severe weather gains the respect, and the response and preparation of people directly impacted by severe season. Of course, tornadoes are very isolated incidents, and they don’t touch every part of the area impacted by the more general thunderstorm. Even in the example of the recent stormy weather, Norman, Oklahoma was struck by a tornado. Norman is famously the home to the National Severe Storms Laboratory and the Storm Prediction Center, and the twister passed about half a mile from their shared facility, and damage was felt in local neighborhoods. Otherwise, however, the Oklahoma City metro was left unperturbed.
By tornadoes, it should be noted. The storm that swept through the region was contributed by a very strong cold front, which caused dust storms through western Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle. Still, even with the strong storms, it’s usually the tornadoes that capture the imagination of the conscientious weather watcher.
Snow storms are something of a blend between the two features of a hurricane and severe storms. It comes from broad, well anticipated systems, but the impacts are felt differently from mile to mile. Instead of respected and anticipated, snow storm forecasting is almost always derided immediately, and sometimes amid the storm, especially in locations that see their share of severe winter weather.
Even as snow was ongoing in the Twin Cities, a lot of stalwarts complained that the snow was not as advertised. In truth, nobody was reading the fine print on the advertisements, because things were proceeding exactly as planned. There was about half a foot of snow that fell on Tuesday night, and then another 10-15 inches fell overnight Wednesday to Thursday. Originally, there were more dire forecasts, but outlets were pretty well in line on the total snow, a foot to 18″ in the metro (it was up to 20 in Apple Valley in the south suburbs), and the break in the middle was noted by every forecast people took the time to read.
Let me tell you, 18″ of snow, even just a foot of snow, is plenty of snow. It tied up the morning commute, and justifiably closed schools across the region. This storm was bruising winter weather maker, shutting down roads in South Dakota, Nebraska and Minnesota, and ushering in subzero temperatures on the back of 40mph winds, even if it wasn’t as big a storm as some people might have wanted.
This pattern has also been strong enough to bring about the first significant snowfall of the season to the I-95 corridor. Of course, the snow there was fairly light, otherwise it probably would have led local newscasts. What was more significant was that it was the first real snow, and March starts tomorrow. The warm weather will persist in the southeast, but a cooler pattern is forecast to continue as we roll into March.
Nowhere will it be unseasnably colder than on the West Coast, where southern California, notably the highlands around Los Angeles, received substantial snowfall at the end of February, accumulating in spots to over a foot. The force of the features coming onshore, unchecked by topography allowed the system to bring full force of wind ot the region as well, with blizzard warnings blanketing much of the Golden State.
The graphic at the top of the screen shows the snowfall coverage across the country, with an emphasis on the snow that has battered the United States to end the shortest month of the year. The As we enter March, of course, the emphasis will continue to focus on severe storms. They again are traversing the southern Plains tonight, with tornado warnings in the Dallas area. With cold in the west and warmth in the southeast only becoming magnified in the spring, expect more wild weather to continue.
Watch out, world, here we come. We’re back to a few posts a week, we might even have some days with more than one post in a day, and not just today! Ironically, it will likely take my being snowed in to get there. Oh well.
Michigan City, Indiana
Fond du Lac, Wisconsin Road trip from Michigan City to Fond du Lac
There is a huge, multiphase storm moving across the country. Essentially, only areas from the Mid Atlantic to Florida are going to be spared. There will be blizzard conditions in the north, severe storms through the middle of the country, and even snow squalls in the 4 Corners. It is brutal, and it’s continuing to go down hill. I am telling you this so you can look to the National Weather Service, who had the best start to the forecasting year, and are your January forecasters of the month.
Boy, we know when to pick these cross country trips. This trip, into the teeth of one of the most significant storms for the Upper Midwest in decades, will last 4 days in ideal conditions, though these will be less than ideal. It’s 2065 miles between the systems, and right now is prognosticated to have a pace of 66.6mph, which will lead to a perhaps aspirational 533 miles a day. Day 4 will be a hair shorter than the rest, but they are all going to feel long, I reckon.
DAY ONE (Tuesday)
Logan, Utah
The entirety of our route on Tuesday will be in a at least a winter storm warning, while some stretches of southern Wyoming are in a blizzard warning. I think the heaviest snow will be in Montana tomorrow, though we will be seeing snow around Logan as we set forth. Wind will be on the increase throughout the day, but we will probably be dry from time to time from Kemmerer to Rock Springs, then even more sparsely through the remainder of the state of Wyoming. Assuming we keep our pace, we will be just ahead of the worst of the snow, but any flurries we see will be wind driven and challenging. The day will end in Sidney, in the Nebraska Panhandle. Batten down the hatches, it is going to be a long night.
DAY TWO (Wednesday) This is definitely our most imagination driven day. The heavier snow is going to sink south into Nebraska, along with a cold frontal wind, and it is not out of the question that blizzard conditions will grip most of I-80 in Nebraska. If that’s the case, then the road might simply be closed. The nasty parts of the storm will be cut off by a dry slot nosing north into the Omaha and Nebraska City regions, and we might even get some dry air after we leave the freeway in Lincoln. Expect to see drier condition as we head south, west of a cold front that will, by this point, have advanced into Iowa and Missouri. We will end the day in Kansas City, and be extremely grateful for it.
DAY THREE (Thursday) The nasty storm is going to focus it’s wrath to our north by Thursday, which is good news for our travels, bad news for the Great Lakes. South winds will be rushing north to meet that area of low pressure, and especially east of St. Louis, we will need both hands on the steering wheel, as if they haven’t been white knuckling the whole way already. We’ll make it to Simpsonville, east of Louisville, by the end of this day.
DAY FOUR (Friday) Low pressure will be moving vaguely poleward by the end of the week, and this is a relief for us. Dry skies will continue on the way to Greensboro, though a little band of light rain will develop eventually to our south and west, and that wind that will buffet us on Thursday will also be a memory. The arrival in Greensboro will come after 4 long days of driving, and will be quite a relief.
