Harrisonburg, Virginia

Ryan Henning 2 Comments

We’re heading to northern Virginia, and are going to be in for some sultry conditions headed into the weekend. Let’s see how stuffy we can get.

At 1215PM, ET, Harrisonburg was reporting a temperature of 82 degrees with clear skies and a steamy dew point of 71. There are a few clouds in nearby Staunton, and there is lingering moisture across the coastal Plain area from the Chesapeake south through the Carolinas which will continue to diminish through the day today. It is left over from the previous round of wet weather, and as the next system moves from the Great Lakes, expect Harrisonburg to scour out a bit, with clear skies coming in.
That next system will approach from the west by Saturday afternoon. The latent moisture in the region will mean there is a better chance for some rain and storms as the system climbs over the mountains than typically seen in eastward moving systems in Harrisonburg. There is a great deal of disagreement on the timing of this feature, with one model suggesting that the system won’t arrive until Sunday. As a result, rain and storms will be in both days’ forecast, but there is a better chance that the precipitation will be stormier on Saturday evening. There is some hope for clearing on Sunday afternoon, so the weekend won’t be a total loss.
Tomorrow – Partly cloudy with some late thunderstorms, High 89, Low 65
Sunday – Scattered showers, with some clearing potentially late. Less humid, High 88, low 68

TWC: Tomorrow – Intervals of clouds and sunshine in the morning with more clouds for later in the day. A stray shower or thunderstorm is possible. high 88, Low 64
Sunday – Partly cloudy skies. A stray shower or thunderstorm is possible. High 86, Low 69

AW: Tomorrow – Clouds and sunshine with a heavy thunderstorm around High 87, Low 64
Sunday – Mostly cloudy (early storms) High 87, Low 70

NWS: Tomorrow – A chance of showers and thunderstorms after 2pm. Patchy fog before 8am. Otherwise, partly sunny, High 89, Low 66
Sunday – A slight chance of showers, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms after 2pm. Mostly sunny, High 88, Low 69

WB: Tomorrow – Partly sunny, patchy fog in the morning. A chance of showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon, High 86, Low 67
Sunday – Mostly sunny. A chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. High 84, Low 68

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy with scattered showers and a chance of storms, High 89, Low 67
Sunday – Partly cloudy (early storms), High 89, Low 69

CLI: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy, High 88, Low 63
Sunday – Light rain showers, High 88, Low 68

As one might expect with models in conflict, there is disagreement on how to sort out this forecast. Have a glance at the local forecast from WSHV’s Ben Beddoes to get a little bit of clarity.

4 Minutes!

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Thunderstorms moved into Amarillo after the 4th of July as the dry line finally shifted east and away from West Texas. on the 5th and 6th, as a system moving through the northern US dragged it into oblivion. As it usually does, it set off some nocturnal convection, which nearly everyone had in the forecast. I don’t feel bad for the outlets that left thunder out of the forecast for the 6th, as there were a solid 5 or 6 hours of stormy weather. Everyone who kept it dry on the 5th though, you were right, up until the 1156PM observation, when scattered storms were reported at KAMA. That’s tough. The Weather Service and WeatherNation had storms on both days of the forecast period, and WeatherNation narrowly edged the Weather Service to earn an Amarillo A+
Actuals: Wednesday, July 5th, Storms reported late, no accumulation, High 91, Low 69
Thursday, July 6th, .04″ of rain in thunderstorms, High 87, Low 63

Grade: A-C

Today has been a scary severe weather day

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Today has been a scary severe weather day, with the tornadoes in Chicago. There is ongoing severe weather in Lower Michigan and in the middle of the country from Missouri to Kansas. The severe weather will return tomorrow, coupled with more flash flooding possible in New England, Vermont in particular. Severe weather is coming from the Eastern Great Lakes, through the Ohio Valley, as well as in the high Plains – tornado alley. Friday is going to be quieter, and right now, at least, it looks even better for the weekend.

The tail end of a tornado outbreak is wrapping up in Chicago.

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The tail end of a tornado outbreak is wrapping up in Chicago. Unfortunately, the densest population in Chicago is on the Lake, so the worst may still be to come. Look at the radar progression this evening, as those tornado reports crop up through the evening.

There have been reports of damage that started in Huntley with roofs and tree damage, then more to the south around La Grange, with the final set of reports coming from Bloomingdale to O’Hare Airport. Having a tornado outbreak in a metropolitan area as densely populated as Chicago is a scary scenario, and we will await news from the authorities, as storms roll out into the Lake.

Denver, Colorado

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

Denver is typically at the border between two worlds, one mountainous, the other empty plains. Lately, they have also been along an oscillating lee trough, touching off strong thunderstorms throughout the area.

At 853PM, MT, Denver was reporting a temperature of 70 degrees with fair skies. Thunderstorm activity has finally started to leave eastern Colorado and western Kansas in piece, as a weak upper level ridge has settled in place over the central Rockies.
For the next couple of days, the primary factor in the ignition of showers and storms will be a dry line that will initially be too far south to bring any wet weather to the Mile High City, and shift east into the Plains. Denver will continue to warm and dry out as the week begins.
Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, Hot, High 91, Low 61
Tuesday – Mostly sunny and even warmer, High 97, Low 63

TWC: Tomorrow – Sunshine and clouds mixed High 91, Low 61
Tuesday – Sunshine and some clouds. Hot. High 97, Low 63

AW: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny High 91, Low 58
Tuesday – Very warm with plenty of sunshine High 97, Low 61

NWS: Tomorrow – Very warm with plenty of sunshine High 95, Low 60
Tuesday – Sunny High 95, Low 62

WB: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, a 10 percent chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon, High 92, Low 61
Tuesday – Mostly sunny, High 96, Low 61

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 95, Low 60
Tuesday – Mostly sunny, High 95, Low 62

CLI: Tomorrow – Light Rain Showers, High 87, Low 61
Tuesday – Sunny, High 94, Low 62

Clime looks to be on a slightly different planet than the rest of the forecasters her. In fact, I would say if this forecasts busts, it will be because the temperature is even warmer tomorrow. Satellite tonight is awfully quiet.

Hazy days

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We are getting ready for a heat wave in the southern US, we can reflect on last month, when things were just downright smoky. All manner of the US experienced the smoky weather, from the Northern Plains all the way to the East Coast. We put together a forecast for Kalamazoo towards the end of the month, and indeed, it got smoky there as well. It was so smoky, and in conjunction with an inactive cold front that passed through, temperatures were only in the low 70s on Tuesday the 27th, but rebounded uncomfortably th Wednesday after. Weathernation collected their first solo victory of the year thanks to a solid forecast.
Actuals: Tuesday, June 27th, High 73, Low 59
Wednesday, June 28th, High 82, Low 53

Grade: A-C

Odessa, Texas

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

We are undergoing the hottest stretch the planet has ever seen, and yet, the continental US has been fairly cool. That’s not a blanket statement, though, as the heat is on in the southwest, and Odessa looks to be in the crosshairs for some brutal heat.

At 753PM, CT, Odessa was reporting a temperature of 94 degrees with clear skies. Dew points were below 50 which is among the reasons that temperatures are able to soar during the heating of the day. Low pressure is centered over eastern Oklahoma, and cycling moisture into a lee trough, where severe thunderstorms have arisen from Colorado to the Texas Panhandle. Ridging has started pressing from the southwest already, though, and Odessa is expected to remain dry tonight.
Sunday will remain hot and dry, and the jet will lift well to the north. A fairly strong area of low pressure will emerge in the Canadian Prairies, pulling moisture westward, and likely inducing a bit more activity out of the dry line. It will be plenty warm again on Monday, but there will be a few scattered clouds across west Texas in the evening to spell relief, though rain will predominantly stay in the Panhandle.
Tomorrow – Sunny and hot, High 103, Low 78
Monday – Scattered clouds, High 104, Low 74

TWC: Tomorrow – Sunny skies. Hot. High 104, Low 78
Monday – A mainly sunny sky. Hot. High 105, Low 76

AW: Tomorrow – Breezy in the morning; sunshine and hot; stay hydrated when outside in the heat High 103, Low 77
Monday – Mostly sunny, breezy and hot; danger of dehydration and heatstroke if outside for extended periods of time High 103, Low 78

NWS: Tomorrow -Sunny and hot, High 103, Low 77
Monday – Sunny and hot, High 103, Low 77

WB: Tomorrow – Sunny, Hot, High 102, Low 78
Monday – Sunny, hot, High 103, Low 78

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 103, Low 77
Monday – Sunny, High 103, Low 77

CLI: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 102, Low 79
Monday – High 104, Low 77

As I said, it’s going to be plenty hot, with temperatures well over 100, and it won’t cool down all that much in the evening. Tonight, looking to the north they may see some flashes of light on the horizon.