Cumberland, Maryland

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Hello, and good evening, I hope you weren’t up waiting fore this late night forecast. It’s here anyway.

At 1253AM, ET, Cumberland was reporting a temperature of 78 degrees with clear skies. Cumberland was lucky to evade a round of very heavy thunderstorms earlier today, which brought strong winds to West Virginia and northern Virginia, as well as parts of eastern Maryland, but left western Maryland unencumbered. All these storms have been running along a slow moving cold front that is expected to start to resemble a continuous bowing cold front, running from the Chesapeake to the Mid-Mississippi Valley.
The thunderstorms along the boundary will start to organize it’s southward march by tomorrow afternoon. There is a mass of thunderstorms presently moving eastward in the southern Great Lakes that will be ongoing through the morning, and may delay the southerly turn a bit. The change in direction and redevelopment of activity will likely limit the potential severity of thunderstorms on Saturday for Cumberland, though a gust of wind or hail could be seen in the mid afternoon. Cold – relative to what has been seen – air will press in to make Sunday a satisfying conclusion to the weekend.
Tomorrow – Scattered showers and thunderstorms, a threat for severe storms, High 90, Low 69
Sunday – Mostly sunny, High 86, Low 65

TWC: Tomorrow – Thunderstorms likely in the morning. Then a chance of scattered thunderstorms in the afternoon. Gusty winds and small hail are possible High 89, Low 71
Sunday – Sunshine and clouds mixed. A stray shower or thunderstorm is possible. High 86, Low 67

AW: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy and humid with a shower and thunderstorm; thunderstorms can bring flash flooding and localized damaging wind gusts High 90, Low 70
Sunday – Less humid with intervals of clouds and sun High 87, Low 69

NWS: Tomorrow – Scattered showers and thunderstorms before 8am, then scattered showers between 8am and 11am, then scattered showers and thunderstorms after 11am. Partly sunny, High 91, Low 71
Sunday – Isolated showers and thunderstorms. Mostly sunny, High 85, Low 67

WB: Tomorrow – Partly sunny with scattered showers. Isolated thunderstorms in the morning then scattered thunderstorms in the afternoon. High 86, Low 72
Sunday – Partly sunny in the morning then clearing, High 82, Low 70

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy with scattered storms, High 91, Low 72
Sunday – Partly cloudy with isolated storms, High 85, Low 67

CLI: Tomorrow – Light rain showers, High 91, Low 70
Sunday – Sunny, High 86, Low 70

Some overnight imagery. Thunderstorms in Pennsylvania have tapered off, so not much to impress at this late hour.

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Expect August to be dominated by two different stories. The continuing heat, which has lead to extreme warmth in the north Atlantic, and the approach of peak hurricane season. All other things being equal, you might expect that the increased sea surface temperature would lead to an increased risk for hurricane development. There is a long way to go and it certainly remains to be seen, but at this point, it’s still pretty quiet out there.

Of course, while it feels like a slow season, the next named storm will already be the 5th of the year.

Rain arrives before the heatwave

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I think, if anything, the “updates” have made me feel better, keeping in touch wit the weather world and sharing my thoughts on the site, instead of the meandering carcass of Twitter makes this site seem more current and me more engaged. That said, this has been a heck of a month, and the forecast we are verifying today, in Harrisonburg, Virginia, somehow occurred 2 weeks ago. At that time, a feature was attempting to ascend and descend the Appalachians into Harrisonburg, and I can now report, it was successful. Over the course of that weekend, nearly 3/4ths of an inch of rain fell, about as expected. Heavier thunderstorms on Saturday, light rain on Sunday morning, followed by a fairly manageable end to the weekend. Clime missed the thunder on Saturday, somehow, but everyone else hit on that front, and The Weather Channel continued a strong month, and earned the W.
Actuals: Saturday July 15th, .67 inches of rain in a thunderstorm, High 89, Low 63
Sunday – .05 inches of rain, High 85, Low 68

Grade: A – B

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There is a bit of cooler air filtering into the northern US, slowly but surely. Bands of training thunderstorms are expected in the Upper Midwest today. The threat for storms is in the hail and wind variety, particularly when they get going later today. The jet is lingering near the Canadian border, so don’t expect this action to move further south. Sure, it’s hot down there, but at least it isn’t stormy, right?

Strong storms coming for Michigan tomorrow

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There is some heavy weather in the northern Plains this evening, including tornado warnings in South Dakota and Nebraska. Fortunately, this activity is in pretty remote terrain, which makes tomorrows threat more dangerous, even if the storms were at the same level as today’s, because Michigan, especially lower Michigan, is well populated.

Tornadoes and strong winds will be the primary concern, though hail is a threat as well.

Louisville, Kentucky

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Louisville has a greater impact on the United States than you might expect. It’s home to Yum! Brands and UPS, and was the cihildhood home of Muhammed Ali and Diane Sawyer. The city is pretty proud of their history, so remember that next time you hear about the Kentucky Derby or Louisville Sluggers.

At 1058AM, CT, Louisville was reporting a temperature of 82 degrees and mostly cloudy skies. There is a weak trough moving through Kentucky this morning that is producing a band of cumulus from about Jackson, Ohio to Kentucky Lake. There may be a few showers associated with this this afternoon, but they will keep south of Louisville.
A narrow trough over the Great Lakes is the parent of this trough, but the ridge of hot weather that most of the nation is experiencing will force that boundary and any hospitable air back to the northeast. There may be a passing shower on Tuesday as this air mass transition takes place, but by Wednesday, this dome of hot air will take hold and suppress any convective activity. Record highs are possible.
Tomorrow – Isolated showers and storms, High 93, Low 71
Wednesday – Hot and humid, mostly sunny, High 96, Low 74

TWC: Tomorrow – Intervals of clouds and sunshine High 91, Low 69
Wednesday – Sunshine and clouds mixed (morning storms). High 95, Low 73

AW: Tomorrow – Humid with sun and some clouds; a thunderstorm in spots in the afternoon High 90, Low 69
Wednesday -Intervals of clouds and sunshine High 92, Low 73

NWS: Tomorrow – Isolated showers and thunderstorms after 2pm. Mostly sunny, High 89, Low 68
Wednesday – Mostly sunny, High 90, Low 73

WB: Mostly sunny with isolated thunderstorms, High 89, Low 71
Wednesday – Mostly sunny, High 92, Low 70

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy with isolated thunderstorms, High 89, Low 68
Wednesday – Partly cloudy with light rain showers, High 90, Low 73

CLI: Tomorrow – Light rain showers, High 90, Low 72
Wednesday – Partly cloudy, High 95, Low 73

The most interesting part of this forecast for me is that WeatherNation has the same temperatures but a different precipitation forecast than the Weather Service. Take a look at the satellite imagery below, showing that band of clouds south of Louisville.

Louisville

An uphill battle

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On June 9th, we put together a forecast for Denver. If you know anything about the city, you know that the airport is well to the east of town in the vast prarieland of the eastern part of the state. It’s otherwise barren country. Further west are the Rockies and the front range. Generally speaking, it’s a little bit cooler in the city than at the airport because of the terrain. A bit of a reverse urban heat island. This is all important background for the realization that downtown Denver, which is where the forecast verified, is different by a few degrees than the airport, which is the best source for model output statistics. So, we forecast, we went uphill and we verified. Clime, what with the algorithms and had the top temperature forecast, but their erroneuous rain forecast on the morning of the 10th meant Victoria-Weather and The Weather Channel claimed a share of the win as well.
Monday July 10th, High 89, Low 60
Tuesday – July 11th, Hgh 92, Low 64

Grade: B-Ci