It was a busy month of forecasting in October, but the only thing spooky about the month in the end was how closely contested it was. Only the National Weather Service failed to secure even a share of a forecast victory during the month. That meant the rest of the outlets were neck and neck. There was a three way tie for third, and they were only shortly behind Accuweather, who got the slim win.
Remember 2010, when Eyjafjallajökull erupted in Iceland, and kicked up so much ash that it crippled North Atlantic aviation for weeks at a time? Well, there is another large eruption in Iceland anticipated near the Grindavik region, but for now, there are no concerns that there will be similar disruptions.
Temperatures in the early afternoon in Logan are in the upper 40s, should probably settle into the low 50s, just as we all suspected. But that wasn’t where the questions came up. We’ll see what the lows are like tomorrow morning. Dew points are in the mid 20s, which might affect how old it can get over night.
Winter is fast approaching, which is great news for members of the skiing and snowboarding community. The Wasatch are certainly poplar spots for that winter weather activity, but are we there yet?
At 951PM, MT, Logan was reporting a temperature of 29 degrees with clear skies and a light northwest wind behind a weak cool front that passed by earlier this morning. Clear skies prevailed across the Beehive State, with a ridge of high pressure nosing into the area from the west. The jet structure is going to bubble around the Intermountain West, with a southern jet beginning to trough and engender some development in the Mexican Desert, while a ridge will only strengthen in the northern Plains. This will lead to some sustained stability, and late season warmth in Logan. Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 51, Low 23 Sunday – Sunny, High 55, Low 20
TWC: Tomorrow – Sunshine and clouds mixed. High 51, Low 26 Sunday – Except for a few afternoon clouds, mainly sunny. High 56, Low 26
AW: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny High 49, Low 24 Sunday – Brilliant sunshine High 55, Low 21
NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny High 51, Low 26 Sunday – Sunny High 57, Low 29
WB: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 40, Low 29 Sunday – Sunny, High 48, Low 32
WN: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 51, Low 27 Sunday – Mostly Sunny, High 57, Low 27
CLI: Tomorrow – Partly Cloudy, High 50, Low 25 Sunday – Partly Cloudy, High 54, Low 25
All right, here is my guess: The top three outlets and Clime updated their forecasts with the new model guidance already, and the NWS just hasn’t. Guidance clearly is showing a chilly Sunday morning, and it’s already busted on the warm side, so trending colder makes more sense. With this confusion, let’s check with a local perspective, from KSL in Salt Lake City.
Back before Halloween, we issued a forecast in Cincinnati, in which we were ahead of a fairly active time. A failing cold front was on its way through town, and it did bring a bit of light rain. At the end of the period, we anticipated a warm front climbing to the northeast back into the Cincinnati area, which didn’t come to pass before the period was over. Well, don’t look now, but a warm front is rising through the Ohio Valley again. At least back in November, the clouds and rain will more sparse, allowing for a greater drop in temperature, which won’t be the same this time around. This lead to Victoria-Weather, forecasting cooler, winning the day. Actuals: October 27th, .02 inches of rain, High 75, Low 62 October 28th, .-03 inches of rain, High 68, Low 54
Our forecast takes us to the Red River Valley, northeast of the MetroPlex. The Thanksgiving Holiday is soon approaching, so I have to believe more of us are looking at the weather in even more places.
At 250pm, CT, Sherman was reporting a temperature of 81 degrees with clear skies. While there was a weak jet streak bringing high clouds to central Texas, the strongest flow aloft was well to the north. There was a strong wave of low pressure preparing to develop in the northern High Plains, which will act t draw flow from the south. The strong jet to the north will usher the surface feature along while forming into a long waved, low amplitude ridge. This will provide stability to the region, and lead to some warmer air and sunny skies. Tomorrow – Breezy partly cloudy, High 82, Low 61 Tuesday – Sunny, High 85, Low 62
TWC: Tomorrow – A mainly sunny sky, High 82, Low 61 Tuesday – A mainly sunny sky. High 82, Low 62
AW: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, breezy and very warm; great day to be outside High 82, Low 61 Tuesday – Breezy and very warm with plenty of sunshine; dry weather for getting out to vote High 83, Low 62
NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 79, Low 61 Tuesday – Sunny, High 82, Low 62
WB: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 78, Low 62 Tuesday – Sunny, High 79, Low 63
WN: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 79, Low 61 Tuesday – Mostly sunny, High 82, Low 62
CLI: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 82, Low 60 Tuesday – Sunny High 84, Low 62
A look at the satellite shows that jet streak I mentioned earlier. A look at Accuweather’s forecast shows a bit of editorial commentary suggesting that they had too much free time for this forecast.
Cold air damming is something that happens when warm air tries to build from the southwest, but it doesn’t spill east over the Appalachians (usually). This is why you are seeing temperatures in the mid to upper 50s through Kentucky, and it is only in the mid 40s in Charlotte and Greenville.
There is an area of low pressure hanging out in the Gulf of Alaska that is sending successive rounds of moisture into the Pacific Northwest. It isn’t a strong system and is really only notable because of the time of year it is arriving. It is the first real snow storm for the northern Rockies and Cascades, and will be persistent and cold enough to bring lasting snow.
We all know about the urban heat island. Typically, city center or airport observation points are the warmest local point in an area. Not Cincinnati! The airport in Covington (KCVG) is the low point around southeast Ohio.
We’re off on a fairly short trip, that somehow still covers 4 states. It will take 6 1/2 days to cover 439 miles, which equates to a pace of about 67.4mph, which is impressive, given the mountainous terrain we will cover through much of our journey. Thanks, freeways.
Cincinnati, Ohio
There is a mess of instability in the north Atlantic, and it is extending a few memories into the eastern US. By tomorrow morning, we will see a trough in the Great Lakes and a band on the Atlantic side of the Appalachians, from Virginia to South Carolina. The trough in the Great Lakes is going to leave us alone, though it will be breezy for most of our drive, until about Knoxville. A tropical wave near the Bahamas is going to leak to the north and inflame that rain in the coastal plains. It often seems like it is raining between Knoxville and Asheville. Lean more towards the Asheville side this time, and anticipate a shower or two in Hickory when we role in.
