12:12AM: There was a bit of rain in the Southeast today. Fortunately, it wasn’t followed by horribly cold air, but it was enough to bring the threat for some fog throughout the region. The hilly terrain north of Atlanta appears to be particularly susceptible into the early hours.
3:07PM: The first part of January can often feature some early season thunderstorms in the Southeast. That off-season outbreak that we can see a couple months before the real thing hasn’t really loomed as a threat this year. Instead, the focus is out west which is getting hammered by a relentless series of rain and snow. It’s not great for Californian’s right now, but the hope is going to be for an abundant spring and summer.
9:40PM: I was never worried about the northern batch of wet weather reaching Atlantic City, but there was a slim chance that the low moving out of the Carolinas would wobble towards the coast and threaten the forecast of dry weather. Well, the nearest the rain is on shore is in Kill Devil Hills, NC. We should be OK.
Is is a good sign that the first forecast of the year is from a city notable for it’s gambling?
At 454PM, ET, Atlantic City was reporting a temperature of 29 degrees with clear skies. The region is between two jet streak troughs, which is continuing to lead to a deep area of low pressure over Nunavut that continues to instigate Lake effect snow in the eastern Great Lakes. The southern flank of the trough is going to provide a nurturing environment for cyclogenesis in the Lower Mississippi Valley initially, moving east towards the Carolinas. Low pressure will continue to move eastward today from its present home in Arkansas, eventually reaching the Gulf Stream by tomorrow evening. The feature will subsequently continue to deepen and move north along the oceanic current. The pattern aloft will keep the unsettled weather offshore, and the welling from the south may lead to a bit of a warm up for Sunday. Not significant, but every degree this time of year helps. Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 37, Low 22 Sunday – Mostly cloudy, High 40, Low 27
TWC: Tomorrow – Cloudy skies High 33, Low 22 Sunday – Partly cloudy. High 37, Low 26
AW: Tomorrow – Breezy with some sunshine giving way to clouds High 34, Low 25 Sunday – Mostly sunny and breezy High 38, Low 30
NWS: Tomorrow – Increasing clouds High 33, Low 22 Sunday – Mostly cloudy, then gradually becoming sunny High 38, Low 27
WB: Tomorrow – Partly sunny in the morning then becoming cloudy High 31, Low 25 Sunday – Mostly sunny. High 36, Low 29
CLI: Tomorrow – Overcast High 34, Low 23 Sunday – Sunny, High 38, Low 28
There is going to be a bit of a range inland where the airport lies and the city center. so we will see how the forecast plays out. Here is the Accuweather regional forecast, via ABC news in Philadelphia.
9:14AM: Happy New Year, everyone! It’s day two of 2026, and it is a quieter start to the year than 2025 ended. There is a little bit of precipitation around Arkansas, as well as mountain snow in the northern Rockies, and ongoing snow in the Great Lakes, but no major headline grabbing features. My most important note for most of you is probably this: It’s Friday, today. I know it is a murky situation for everyone this time of year, the calendar.
Reno, like many location in the western US, had a rough go of things over Christmas. On Christmas Eve, in addition to some light snow mixing in, Reno saw 1.28″ of rain, and another .28″ of rain on Christmas Day, which accounts for about 20% of the expected ANNUAL rainfall in Reno. Temperature rebounded on Christmas to ensure all precipitation came as rain, but it was definitely a good day to spend indoors. Clime, which has absolutely no holiday spirit, successfully envisioned this forecast, and got the daily win. Actuals: Wednesday – 1.28″ of rain and snow, High 53, Low 32 Thursday – .28″ of rain, High 50, Low 37
This trip might not seem that long, but it’s actually going to last for parts of two years. The trip actually covers 1213 miles, and will last for two days, with one being a couple hours longer than the other. We will move at a pace of 66.1mph, which means we will be spending New Year’s Eve about 529 miles from Dallas.
DAY ONE (Wednesday)
The real show right now is the copious lake effect event happening closer to our destination in Bay City. More precipitation is moving into the Southwest as well, but that won’t be hurdling the Rockies. Instead, we can expect high pressure and mostly sunny skies from Texas through Oklahoma and into Missouri, where we will reach Cuba for the Countdown.
DAY TWO (Sunday) The disturbance in the Great Lakes is winding down. The parent feature is shifting off into the North Atlantic and becoming a problem for Baffin Island. I’m not fully convinced there won’t be snow in Lower Michigan on New Year’s Day, as wind still looks to be predominantly from the west. That said, our route is really going to be in range for the snow between about Michigan City, Indiana and Paw Paw, Michigan. That’s maybe an hour? And even then, only if the snow slows down traffic. Bay City should be living the good life in the eastern part of the state. Happy New Year!
Generally, when we have mentioned Omega blocks in the past, we have referenced them as the cause of heat waves and exasperating wind and fires in the southwest during the summer months. This winter has offered it’s own blocking pattern, and while it has been unusually warm over the Christmas Holiday, it has also brought about quite a bit of something else.
Precipitation. While the ridge in the middle of this block, like a Ω shape, the Greek letter Omega, gets a lot of attention, the winter has been all about the troughs on the west and east of the main feature. We discussed the rain that hammered Redding in our recent verification, but rain and snow has smothered California, with flooding and deadly consequences from San Francisco to San Diego. All of this was after the deadly flash flooding up around Redding.
The rain was heavy, certainly, but what really brought about the problems was the persistence of the pattern. The blocking ridge in the center of the country ensured that the seasonally omnipresent low in the Gulf of Alaska was able to funnel moisture to a low off the California coast, which made for a much wetter stretch than even California’s rainy season is accustomed to.
It isn’t all bad, of course. Anyone in tune with the economics of California knows that the snow in the Sierras is often the only moisture that the Valley will get through the summer months, supplying crops and thirsty residents. A large snowpack, while terribly inconvenient right now, will be a boon for regional agriculture this summer.
On the other coast, the trough has been a good environment for the development of low pressure in the Gulf Stream. This has enhanced some clippers moving out of the Canadian Prairies, as well as more localized development, both features contributed to the travel hassles along the coast over Christmas. The continued winter storm warnings for Lake effect snow in the Great Lakes are all ongoing because of a feature that has rotated and become embedded over Hudson Bay.
For the foreseeable future, this is the outlook. The Plains and particularly the Front Range will remain quite warm. As with most Omega features, even ones in the winter, the West Coast will remain above normal as well, given flow moving down from the mountains when the low pressure off the coast ebbs. Throughout all of it, look for above normal moisture nearly nationwide to start the new year.
Precipitation in California has exceeded all expectations. This is the time of year that the state gets most of its rain, and usually, they can expect a couple of good soakers and impressive snow totals in the Sierras when it happens. The rain doesn’t often fall as intensely in the Central Valley, in addition to the western facing hill sides, as it has this month. Redding, which is at the far northern end of the central California valley system, and called the “sunniest city in California”, was forecast to get some showers during our forecast on the 16th and 17th of December. Instead, it was the beginning of a grueling weeklong stretch of flash flooding and disaster just before Christmas. For our forecast period, Redding saw over an inch and a half of rain, which is quite a bit for anywhere, and certainly a lot for Redding, which has now received twice their monthly expected total for December, already one of the wettest months of the year in northern California. The forecast was fairly well handled on the temperature side, but the quantity of rain was surely underestimated. The Weather Channel had the top forecast. Actuals: December 16th, .96″ of rain, High 48, Low 44 December 17th, .72″ of rain, High 52, Low 43
We’re heading west over the Christmas break. On the plus side, we have work off for the next several days, so we don’t have to worry about that. On the negative end, the drive is over the holidays, which means everyone has time off. Good luck finding help at the convenience store if you need it. The drive will last a little more than 3 1/2 days, covering 1,948 miles at a pace of 67mph. That means the three long days of driving will cover 537 miles. I’m excited to see where we end up on Christmas!
DAY ONE (Wednesday )
Monroe, Louisiana
The Gulf is definitely open, at least on the western side. Fortunately, there isn’t a lot to trigger this instability for Christmas Eve. There may be some lingering clouds throughout the day, and we aren’t going to find a firm dry line, so it’s hard to say when the clouds will end, but they should eventually. We will stop for the day in Newlin, in west Texas. Santa, come to Newlin!
DAY TWO (Thursday/Christmas) It will be a bright and beautiful morning on Christmas as we arise in Newlin. Will we receive gifts? That depends on your Naughty or Nice list status, but we should treasure the good weather we will see for the remainder of the Texas Panhandle and throughout New Mexico. Clouds my begin to pop up as we hit some terrain west of Albuqueque, but precipitation will remain closer to the Four Corners. Our drive will pass into Arizona on Christmas day, but only just. We’ll spend the night in Lupton, preparing for a much rougher day on Friday.
DAY THREE (Friday) I know it sounds crazy to say, but in the higher terrain near Flagstaff, don’t be surprised to see some snow. It should stay away from the interstate, and I suspect the drive in Arizona, at least, will remain dry. We will take US-95 from Kingman, which means we will cross by the Hoover Dam before we reach Las Vegas. Unfortunately, the Vegas portion of the matter may also feature some isolated showers. It will be an improvement for Sin City, which may see some thunderstorms and heavy rain on Christmas Day, so be careful if the city is recovering from the unusual weather. We will continue northwest to Beatty, which will also be unusually damp.
DAY FOUR (Saturday) The center of low pressure, the main one at the base of the trough will move ashore on Boxing Day and have a tough time maintaining itself when it arrives inland. It’s going to completely dissipate at the surface by Saturday. This means that whatever rain fell over the Holiday week on 95 will be dried and gone for the conclusion of our trip through Nevada. The only problem will be finding a place to stop to use the restroom!
Happy Holidays, everyone! This forecast for Reno will take us across Christmases Eve and Day. Christmas in Reno, sounds like it should be airing on Hallmark Channel.
At 1055AM, PT, Reno was reporting a temperature of 57 degrees with clear skies and a brisk south wind. This is in response to a strong trough along the West Coast. A center of circulation lies off the California shore, with southerly flow rushing through the Golden State. The Sierras are beset by heavy snow, and are also keeping Reno clear for now. Most of the region is covered by clouds, however there is a donut hole over western Nevada. The low itself will be moving northeast before arriving on the coast on the Oregon coast. The robustness of this feature and the paired advance of the jet structure will allow for a fully realized cold front to be dragged along with it. Expect some substantial rainfall, particularly for Reno, on Christmas Eve. The surface feature and leading edge of the jet will continue east of the region by Christmas. The base of the trough will still foster cyclonicity in the Pacific, which will mean more southerly flow in the west. While Reno will see less precipitation for Christmas, the Sierras will not, and travel into California from Reno will remain treacherous. Tomorrow – Rain likely, High 43, Low 37 Christmas – Partly cloudy, with some passing showers, High 37, Low 31
TWC: Tomorrow – Cloudy. Periods of rain early High 46, low 39 Christmas – Rain showers, with winds diminishing later in the day. High 44, Low 38
AW: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy and cooler with a bit of rain; breezy in the afternoon Hgh 46, Low 39 Christmas – Mostly cloudy, becoming windier and chilly with a couple of showers High 44, Low 36
NWS: Tomorrow – Rain. Snow level 6700 feet lowering to 6100 feet High 50, Low 40 Christmas – Rain. Snow level 5700 feet High 46, Low 35
WB: Tomorrow – Rain and snow. Snow level lowering to 6500 feet. Snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches. High 46, Low 39 Christmas – Snow and rain. Snow level 5500 to 6000 feet. High 43, Low 39
WN: Tomorrow – Cloudy with rain, High 49, Low 39 Christmas – Cloudy with rain, High 46, Low 35
CLI: Tomorrow – Rain showers High 51, Low 41 Christmas – Rain showers High 47, Low 39
Nevadans aren’t often beset with soggy days, so getting it on Christmas is particularly bad luck. they have a pretty nice window of sunshine right now, however!
