Bay City, Michigan to Atlantic City, New Jersey

According to Google, it would be almost 8 hours to fly from the Bay City area to Atlantic City. It’s eleven and a half hours to make that drive. Combined with the wait at the airport, getting your bags, rental cars, etc. It’s probably shorter and definitely easier to drive. We’ll do this in one big day, covering the 741 miles at a pace of 64.4 miles.

Bay City, Michigan

As has been the case for weeks now, there is another feature rippling through the Great Lakes. This one is moving in from the central Plains, which is further south than anything we’ve seen for a while. That means it hasn’t really been able to tap into much moisture yet, which is great, because there isn’t any precipitation yet. It is cloudy now in Bay City, which will keep things from cooling too much overnight. Temperatures, in fact, will start to warm up overnight, which means the light precipitation moving through lower Michigan tomorrow morning will fall as rain, with a bit of a mix just as we get started. The threat will mostly wane after we pull through Toledo. Clouds will chase us into Pittsburgh, but by the time we get to the Allegheny Mountains, the sun should pop out. The low pressure center is going to be pretty broad, and the rotation associated with it will carry off shore. The southwesterly fetch could lead to a bit of low clouds and fog late in Atlantic City upon our arrival.

Atlantic City, New Jersey

Updates 1/5

11:27AM: The Great Lakes are at it again, resulting in some half foot accumulations just this morning. The unusual bit of news, though, is that there is a weak fetch off of Lake Superior, and that snow is in northeastern Minnesota. It’s definitely not captured by the models, and it is barely showing up on radar, but it IS identified in this local storm report. This is ski country, so I don’t think anyone is mad about it.

3:05PM: I mentioned in an update yesterday that the US was enjoying a bit of a reprieve from early season severe weather. That reprieve is nearing its end. Unfortunately, with the active pattern on either coast, it was just a matter of time, and the first hints of a bit of severe weather coming on the horizon are now showing up in Louisville’s extended outlook. This is Day 5 (January 9th) so things are absolutely still in flux.

Updates 1/4

12:12AM: There was a bit of rain in the Southeast today. Fortunately, it wasn’t followed by horribly cold air, but it was enough to bring the threat for some fog throughout the region. The hilly terrain north of Atlanta appears to be particularly susceptible into the early hours.

3:07PM: The first part of January can often feature some early season thunderstorms in the Southeast. That off-season outbreak that we can see a couple months before the real thing hasn’t really loomed as a threat this year. Instead, the focus is out west which is getting hammered by a relentless series of rain and snow. It’s not great for Californian’s right now, but the hope is going to be for an abundant spring and summer.

Updates 1/3

9:40PM: I was never worried about the northern batch of wet weather reaching Atlantic City, but there was a slim chance that the low moving out of the Carolinas would wobble towards the coast and threaten the forecast of dry weather. Well, the nearest the rain is on shore is in Kill Devil Hills, NC. We should be OK.

Atlantic City, New Jersey

Is is a good sign that the first forecast of the year is from a city notable for it’s gambling?

At 454PM, ET, Atlantic City was reporting a temperature of 29 degrees with clear skies. The region is between two jet streak troughs, which is continuing to lead to a deep area of low pressure over Nunavut that continues to instigate Lake effect snow in the eastern Great Lakes. The southern flank of the trough is going to provide a nurturing environment for cyclogenesis in the Lower Mississippi Valley initially, moving east towards the Carolinas.
Low pressure will continue to move eastward today from its present home in Arkansas, eventually reaching the Gulf Stream by tomorrow evening. The feature will subsequently continue to deepen and move north along the oceanic current. The pattern aloft will keep the unsettled weather offshore, and the welling from the south may lead to a bit of a warm up for Sunday. Not significant, but every degree this time of year helps.
Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 37, Low 22
Sunday – Mostly cloudy, High 40, Low 27

TWC: Tomorrow – Cloudy skies High 33, Low 22
Sunday – Partly cloudy. High 37, Low 26

AW: Tomorrow – Breezy with some sunshine giving way to clouds High 34, Low 25
Sunday – Mostly sunny and breezy High 38, Low 30

NWS: Tomorrow – Increasing clouds High 33, Low 22
Sunday – Mostly cloudy, then gradually becoming sunny High 38, Low 27

WB: Tomorrow – Partly sunny in the morning then becoming cloudy High 31, Low 25
Sunday – Mostly sunny. High 36, Low 29

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy 33, Low 23
Sunday – Mostly sunny, High 38, Low 28

CLI: Tomorrow – Overcast High 34, Low 23
Sunday – Sunny, High 38, Low 28

There is going to be a bit of a range inland where the airport lies and the city center. so we will see how the forecast plays out. Here is the Accuweather regional forecast, via ABC news in Philadelphia.

Updates 1/2

9:14AM: Happy New Year, everyone! It’s day two of 2026, and it is a quieter start to the year than 2025 ended. There is a little bit of precipitation around Arkansas, as well as mountain snow in the northern Rockies, and ongoing snow in the Great Lakes, but no major headline grabbing features. My most important note for most of you is probably this: It’s Friday, today. I know it is a murky situation for everyone this time of year, the calendar.

Forget the chestnuts, make sure you’ve got the open fire

Reno, like many location in the western US, had a rough go of things over Christmas. On Christmas Eve, in addition to some light snow mixing in, Reno saw 1.28″ of rain, and another .28″ of rain on Christmas Day, which accounts for about 20% of the expected ANNUAL rainfall in Reno. Temperature rebounded on Christmas to ensure all precipitation came as rain, but it was definitely a good day to spend indoors. Clime, which has absolutely no holiday spirit, successfully envisioned this forecast, and got the daily win.
Actuals: Wednesday – 1.28″ of rain and snow, High 53, Low 32
Thursday – .28″ of rain, High 50, Low 37

Grade: C-D

Happy New Year, all!

Dallas, Texas to Bay City, Michigan

This trip might not seem that long, but it’s actually going to last for parts of two years. The trip actually covers 1213 miles, and will last for two days, with one being a couple hours longer than the other. We will move at a pace of 66.1mph, which means we will be spending New Year’s Eve about 529 miles from Dallas.

DAY ONE (Wednesday)

The real show right now is the copious lake effect event happening closer to our destination in Bay City. More precipitation is moving into the Southwest as well, but that won’t be hurdling the Rockies. Instead, we can expect high pressure and mostly sunny skies from Texas through Oklahoma and into Missouri, where we will reach Cuba for the Countdown.

DAY TWO (Sunday)
The disturbance in the Great Lakes is winding down. The parent feature is shifting off into the North Atlantic and becoming a problem for Baffin Island. I’m not fully convinced there won’t be snow in Lower Michigan on New Year’s Day, as wind still looks to be predominantly from the west. That said, our route is really going to be in range for the snow between about Michigan City, Indiana and Paw Paw, Michigan. That’s maybe an hour? And even then, only if the snow slows down traffic. Bay City should be living the good life in the eastern part of the state. Happy New Year!

A persistent little block

Generally, when we have mentioned Omega blocks in the past, we have referenced them as the cause of heat waves and exasperating wind and fires in the southwest during the summer months. This winter has offered it’s own blocking pattern, and while it has been unusually warm over the Christmas Holiday, it has also brought about quite a bit of something else.

Precipitation. While the ridge in the middle of this block, like a Ω shape, the Greek letter Omega, gets a lot of attention, the winter has been all about the troughs on the west and east of the main feature. We discussed the rain that hammered Redding in our recent verification, but rain and snow has smothered California, with flooding and deadly consequences from San Francisco to San Diego. All of this was after the deadly flash flooding up around Redding.

The rain was heavy, certainly, but what really brought about the problems was the persistence of the pattern. The blocking ridge in the center of the country ensured that the seasonally omnipresent low in the Gulf of Alaska was able to funnel moisture to a low off the California coast, which made for a much wetter stretch than even California’s rainy season is accustomed to.

It isn’t all bad, of course. Anyone in tune with the economics of California knows that the snow in the Sierras is often the only moisture that the Valley will get through the summer months, supplying crops and thirsty residents. A large snowpack, while terribly inconvenient right now, will be a boon for regional agriculture this summer.

On the other coast, the trough has been a good environment for the development of low pressure in the Gulf Stream. This has enhanced some clippers moving out of the Canadian Prairies, as well as more localized development, both features contributed to the travel hassles along the coast over Christmas. The continued winter storm warnings for Lake effect snow in the Great Lakes are all ongoing because of a feature that has rotated and become embedded over Hudson Bay.

For the foreseeable future, this is the outlook. The Plains and particularly the Front Range will remain quite warm. As with most Omega features, even ones in the winter, the West Coast will remain above normal as well, given flow moving down from the mountains when the low pressure off the coast ebbs. Throughout all of it, look for above normal moisture nearly nationwide to start the new year.

Trouble in NorCal

Precipitation in California has exceeded all expectations. This is the time of year that the state gets most of its rain, and usually, they can expect a couple of good soakers and impressive snow totals in the Sierras when it happens. The rain doesn’t often fall as intensely in the Central Valley, in addition to the western facing hill sides, as it has this month. Redding, which is at the far northern end of the central California valley system, and called the “sunniest city in California”, was forecast to get some showers during our forecast on the 16th and 17th of December. Instead, it was the beginning of a grueling weeklong stretch of flash flooding and disaster just before Christmas. For our forecast period, Redding saw over an inch and a half of rain, which is quite a bit for anywhere, and certainly a lot for Redding, which has now received twice their monthly expected total for December, already one of the wettest months of the year in northern California. The forecast was fairly well handled on the temperature side, but the quantity of rain was surely underestimated. The Weather Channel had the top forecast.
Actuals: December 16th, .96″ of rain, High 48, Low 44
December 17th, .72″ of rain, High 52, Low 43

Grade: A-C