Redding, California

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

Northern California tonight, to a part of the state that can be just as hot as the southern part of the state, especially inland, like Redding is.

At 753PM, PT, Redding was reporting cloudy skies with a temperature of 46 degrees. There was a little bit of haze at the surface, as there appeared to be throughout the area. Low pressure in the Gulf of Alaska has banded a cold front moving into the west coast, with a few showers seen from Yreka to Eureka. As is often the case, the first attempt at translating through the area will be unsuccessful, however the strong jet will move inland, and low pressure will reconstitute north of Vancouver Island by tomorrow.
Rain will move into Redding in the afternoon, which will be heavy at times. Because of the terrain on the coast, the center of low pressure will appear to hop from north of Vancouver Island to the southern part of British Columbia. The phasing of the low is indicative of this system being particularly strong for the west coast. The trough is strong and short waved enough to continue moving eastward into the Prairies. Rain will continue in northern California through Wednesday morning, but will start to clear out through the afternoon. Unfortunately, there will likely be some low clouds and fog leftover as a parting gift, particularly after night fall.
Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with rain becoming heavier in the afternoon, High 50, Low 41
Wednesday – A bit more sun in the afternoon, but rain early, High 56, Low 44

TWC: Tomorrow -Showers early, becoming a steady rain later in the day. High 47, Low 45
Wednesday – Cloudy skies early will become partly cloudy later in the day (early rain). High 52, Low 45

AW: Tomorrow – Cloudy and cool with a little rain High 51, Low 44
Wednesday – A couple of morning showers; otherwise, mostly cloudy High 58, Low 43

NWS: Tomorrow – Showers, mainly after 8am. Widespread dense fog, mainly before 10am High 55, Low 46
Wednesday – Showers. High 58, Low 46

WB: Tomorrow – Cloudy with a chance of rain showers. Widespread fog. . . Locally dense in the morning. High 46, Low 46
Wednesday – Rain showers. High 48, Low 42

WN: Tomorrow – Cloudy with showers, High 55, Low 46
Wednesday – Mostly cloudy with light showers, High 58, Low 46

CLI: Tomorrow – Rain showers, High 53, Low 37
Wednesday – Rain showers, High 52, Low 44

Oh my goodness, this forecast is haunted. I have reviewed the numbers, and there are no typos. Weatherbug has the same high as the low tomorrow. Clime really is 9 degrees colder than the what most others think. The rain timelines are all different. This verification is going to be something else. Here is the radar, with showers northwest of Redding.

Sherman, Texas to Hot Springs, Arkansas

Ryan Henning Leave a comment

It’s a short trip today, but really, a four hour trip between a couple of towns that avoids much population anywhere along the way is pretty exciting. This means that we haven’t really been able to talk about a trip through places like Paris, Texas, or Broken Bow, Oklahoma or De Queen, Arkansas. not that the post will include them after this, but still! It’s a 239 mile journey that will last just shy of 4 1/2 hours, covering only 54.5. At that pace, maybe we will lament driving through Paris, Broken Bow and De Queen.

Sherman, Texas

If you have been following along here at Victoria-Weather, or if you have been outside east of the Rockies lately, you know that it is pretty chilly. A warm up is coming, however, as high pressure that has been keeping it so cold is shuffling eastward. This won’t disrupt the day at all, as it often can when one air mass leaves town. The tail of the surface high is sinking into hte northern Gulf, which will prevent moisture from infiltrating our route. It should be a fine day for driving, in about perfect conditions for keeping the windows rolled up, but without needing the heat or AC.

Hot Springs, Arkansas

Hot Springs, Arkansas

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

There are only two more shopping weekends before Christmas (including this one) so I recommend you get out there ASAP!

At 1153AM, CT, Hot Springs was reporting a temperature of 47 degrees with overcast skies. A trough is sinking from the north, with a band of snow scooting through Iowa and Missouri, with a blob of clouds pressing south into Arkansas. The clouds are layered at the lower levels, and aren’t likely to scatter out through the day today.
Tomorrow will be a very cold day for western Arkansas as cold air continues to cycle into the area. Relief will be on the way during the work week, with a thermal ridge starting to build back in late on Monday.
Tomorrow – Sunny and cold, High 37, Low 23
Monday – A hair warmer in the afternoon, High 46, Low 17

TWC: Tomorrow – Sunny. Turning colder. High 34, Low 26
Monday – A mainly sunny sky. High 43, Low 20

AW: Tomorrow – Colder with plenty of sun High 38, Low 25
Monday – Not as cold with plenty of sun High 45, Low 20

NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 26, Low 24
Monday – Sunny, High 41, Low 18

WB: Tomorrow – Sunny. Much cooler High 34, Low 30
Monday – Sunny. Not as coo High 40, Low 20

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 31, Low 24
Monday – Mostly sunny, High 41, Low 18

CLI: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 40, Low 22
Monday – Sunny, High 45, Low 18

“Hot” Springs, am I right? There was a much greater diversity to the spread of forecast temperatures from model to model today for a clear sky forecast than what I like to see. The clouds are low enough that they aren’t really showing up on the satellite.

The first, not the worst

Ryan Henning Leave a comment

December came with a punch of cold air to the Upper Mississippi Valley, with the first subzero temperatures of the season arriving in La Crosse on the 4th. Fortunately, it wasn’t quite as chilly as the forecasts called for (except, ironically, Weatherbug). Unfortunately, it was a precursor to the vicious cold snap coming this weekend. Wind chills will easily eclipse -20 tomorrow morning. If you want to think warm thoughts, think about the warm fuzzy feeling The Weather Channel must have for nailing the forecast from back on the second. That should do it, right?
Actuals: December 3rd, .03″ of precipitation, as snow, High 30, Low 8
December 4th, High 15, Low -2

Grade: A-D

Coming Soon…

Ryan Henning Leave a comment

We have quite a few road trip forecasts coming forward through the year’s end.

Redding, California
Road Trip from Hot Springs, Arkansas to Redding

Reno, Nevada
Road Trip from Monroe, Louisiana to Reno

Road Trip from Dallas, Texas to Bay City, Michigan

Atlantic City, New Jersey
Road Trip from Bay City to Atlantic City

Road Trip from Atlantic City to Sacramento, California

Sherman, Texas

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

The forecast for the day will come from north Texas. Given the pattern right now, this might be one of the colder forecasts you see from Texas.

At 115PM, CT, Sherman was reporting a temperature of 68 degrees. Skies were clear behind a trough sweeping a band of clouds through the Piney Woods. Dew points in north Texas have already dropped off, but the lag in temperature gradient goes back to Kansas, where temperatures have dropped into the 30s. A succession of clippers have moved through the Upper Midwest, riding a strong jet streak through the Plains. The jet streak is expected to start oscillating through the weekend, with high pressure then building in the south central US.
High pressure building in the Plains will do so on the back of cold weather from Canada. With a deep trough at the upper levels, there is enough cyclonic flow to continue reinforcing cold air in North Texas. The thermal ridge will wait until the middle of next week to start taking temperatures back up. Before then, don’t be surprised to see some sub-freezing air arrive in Sherman
Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 58, Low 39
Sunday – Sunny and a bit warmer, High 42, Low 26

TWC: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy. High 61, low 38
Sunday – Sunny. High 42, Low 27

AW: Tomorrow – Times of clouds and sun; best day of the weekend High 65, low 37
Sunday – Mostly sunny; breezy in the morning, then turning much colder high 47, Low 26

NWS: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, high 63, Low 38
Sunday – Sunny, high 46, Low 28

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny. High 60, Low 38
Sunday – Sunny. Much cooler High 44, low 33

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 63, Low 38
Sunday – Sunny, High 46, Low 28

CLI: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 60, Low 38
Sunday – Sunny, High 42, low 27

It’s going to be interesting to see how quickly temperatures fall off on Saturday night. There is a good chance that is a midnight high. It’s clear right now, but don’t let that fool you!

I can’t believe I missed this

Ryan Henning Leave a comment

I verified Raleigh earlier this week, and completely skipped over the verification for Providence. This was a busy forecast, with some rain coming into the area just as Thanksgiving was drawing near. There was rain on both Wednesday and a bit of a splash on Thanksgiving Day. As promised, the weather cleared by afternoon, which allowed locals to get out of the house and go for a walk to allow all that turkey to digest. The rainfall wasn’t universally included in the forecast, which really shuffled the standings. Weatherbug had the top temperature forecast, but fell back into a tie with Victoria-Weather – which makes me even more irritated I missed the verification! -for first place.
Actuals: November 26th, .18″ of rain, High 59, Low 53
Thanksgiving – .01″ of rain, High 55, Low 37

Grade: B-C

La Crosse, Wisconsin to Tucson, Arizona

Ryan Henning Leave a comment

Back in the saddle again, as we take a trip from southern Wisconsin to southern Arizona. Surely, as we reach the middle of December, this is a voyage a lot of locals wouldn’t mind taking. The drive is going to take us three days and cover 1,666 miles, which means that if weather holds, we will cover 533 miles a day at abouy 66.7mph. The final day of the trip, as often is the case, will be our longest.

DAY ONE (Thursday)

La Crosse, Wisconsin
Credit: Wikideas1 – Own work

It’s been a busy time for the northern Plains. The cold seen across the Eastern US is being fed by a steady band of Clipper systems moving along the back end of the thermal trough. Another one is staged to move through on Thursday, particularly impacting Iowa in the afternoon. It will take us a couple of hours to get to Des Moines, and naturally, that should be the point of the trip where snow starts to infiltrate. I would say the chance for flakes will start around Ames and pick up. We will nearly be out of the woods by the time we reach Osceola, and at that point, it may mix with some rain. Fortunately, the rain and precipitation will cut off with warmer air as we cross into Missouri. Kansas City will offer fewer navigational headaches than Des Moines, and we will end the night in Topeka, before the Kansas Turnpike offers fewer and fewer exit opportunities.

DAY TWO (Friday)
We are certainly taking a more adventurous route than we are accustomed to. We will not be haded south from Wichita, but rather west through southwest Kansas, and on some smaller roads through the various Panhandles of the region. Fortunately, the weather should be accomodating along a route that can be otherwise inhospitable. About 20 minutes before we reach Tucumcari, New Mexico from the northeast, we will end our day in Logan, New Mexico.

DAY THREE (Saturday)
I think we will be happy we went south and then west. While a nother bracing shot of cold air and snow moves through the Upper Midwest and High Plains, we will be driving through the sunshine and seasonably warm air of New Mexico. The Land of Enchantment, indeed. It will be quite comfortable for our arrival in Tucson.