Davenport, Iowa

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

Davenport is the largest of the Quad Cities, lying on the border with Illinois. You would think the Quad Cities would have more people than the Twin Cities, right? One of life’s mysteries.

At 1252PM, CT, Davenport was reporting a temperature of 55 degrees with clear skies. After a tumultuous beginning to the week, the clearer skies were a welcome change of pace. High pressure has developed over the western Great Lakes, and will keep the Quad Cities dry through the rest of the work week. The trough that had lingered in the western US for nearly a week is beginning to wither, but not before one last system generates in the southern Plains.
This system will begin to move to the northeast through Friday as a tightly wound, organized feature, but as the upper level pattern loses focus, so too will the surface feature. Hurricane Rafael will also be winding down in the Gulf of Mexico around this time, but will lend some of his leftover moisture to the Plains feature, so even if there aren’t strong storms, there will be a a healthy dose of rain on Saturday afternoon and evening. The system will linger through the evening, leaving a dreary night in the Quad Cities.
Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 60, Low 38
Saturday – Rain, heavy at times in the afternoon, and mostly cloudy with drizzle in the evening, High 53, Low 43

TWC: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny skies. High 62, low 36
Saturday – Cloudy with occasional showers for the afternoon High 55, low 41

AW: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny and pleasant High 61, Low 39
Saturday – Cloudy and cooler, turning breezy with periods of rain and a thunderstorm in the afternoon High 55, Low 42

NWS: Tomorrow – Areas of fog before 10am. Otherwise, sunny, High 60, Low 35
Saturday – A 50 percent chance of showers after noon. Partly sunny, High 57, Low 39

WB: Tomorrow – Areas of fog in the morning. Sunny, High 55, Low 40
Saturday – Partly sunny in the morning then mostly cloudy with a chance of showers in the afternoon, High 55, Low 42

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 60, Low 35
Saturday – Mostly cloudy with light showers likely, High 54, Low 40

CLI: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 61, Low 39
Saturday – Rain showers, High 54, Low 41

I am certainly of the opinion that Saturday will be murkier than the other outlets, which is the reason for my narrower temperature range. The satellite this afternoon in Davenport is very nice.

A grand unveiling

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It was very foggy the last two mornings in Rocky Mount. Tuesday, the sky didn’t clear until nearly 11, but on Wednesday, it cleared a bit earlier. All this led to a warmer afternoon high, and the all important Vitamin D infusion. There was no rain, despite a little bit of moisture flowing in, all of which brought about the morning fog. Accuweather had rain in the forecast, and despite this, the temperature forecast was good enough to give them the victory.
Actuals: Tuesday, High 79, Low 51
Wednesday, High 82, Low 53

Grade: A-C

Coming Soon…

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Well, I’ve certainly provided a boost of posting, haven’t I? Let’s see if this pace is sustainable, and if winter is making a hard charge for us.

Champaign, Illinois

Road Trip from Champaign to Sebastian, Florida

Cedar Rapids, Iowa

Carson City, Nevada

Midland, Texas

Road Trip from Orlando, Florida to Manchester, New Hampshire

Cool consistency

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It’s not often I get to put together a forecast for Phoenix and the high comes nowhere near double digits, but that was the cast this week. Temperatures rose only to the low 70s under a strong upper level trough, and the low were as cool as the low 50s. Each day was a near carbon copy of the other one, so that consistent Phoenix forecast strategy worked wonders, even as temperatures were much cooler than one would normally anticipate in the Arizona capital. It was Weatherbug who put together the top forecast for the day, and a good one it was.
Actuals: Monday – High 72, Low 52
Tuesday – High 73, Low 51

Grade: A-B

October Forecaster of the Month

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The autumn is scary season for more reason than one reason. Milton followed Helene in September, battering the west coast of Florida, a drought in the Plains coming to an end, and the first snow of the year in the Mountains and northern Plains. After what has been a pretty scary year for Accuweather forecasters, they can finally point to October as a solid month, and one in which they were victorious.

OutletForecast Wins (year)
The Weather Channel15.15
Victoria-Weather10.48
WeatherNation6.83
Accuweather5.16
Clime3.5
National Weather Service3.32
Weatherbug2.33

Results from Wisconsin

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Racine was a rainy place on election day. There was lighter fare on Monday as well, but 3/4″ of rain came to the southeast Wisconsin city on Tuesday, which really put a damper on things in the state. Cold air moved in behind the rain this morning, leading to a foggy situation in the northern Plains. Also, it slowed the cooldown across Wisconsin, with the low temperature for Tuesday settling about halfway between what the outlets who have extended hourly temperature outlooks and those that don’t had for their Tuesday low. This was a boon for the Weather Channel, who narrowly won the forecast, having only 1 degree of error elsewhere.
Actuals: Tuesday – .17 inches of rain, High 67, Low 58
Wednesday – .78 inches of rain, High 67, low 56

Grade: B-C

Rocky Mount, North Carolina to Tulsa, Oklahoma

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Our road trip tonight takes us in a route that we normally wouldn’t for this trip, because of road closures still left by hurricane Helene. As it stands, this will be a two day adventure across the Appalachians and to the southern Plains, covering 1218 miles. This mountainous sojourn will be at a pace of 68.2mph, which is pretty quick, actually. The first day will end after 545 miles, which is a mighty bit of driving.

DAY ONE (Tuesday)

Rocky Mount, North Carolina By Harris Walker – https://www.flickr.com/photos/harriswalkerphotography/3342646285/in/album-72157615074534836/, CC BY 2.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=61707633

Our drive out of North Carolina will have to swing north because of road closures, and we will snake through Virginia. As we make our way through the southwestern part of the shape, the moist onshore flow wrapping around a ridge of high pressure will lead to at least some low clouds, but potentially some fog and mist, particularly from Hillsville to Wytheville. Eastern Tennessee will give us a bit of clear air in which to enjoy the sights. We will reach Lebanon, just before Nashville, and await a line of showers and thunderstorms that will dampen Lebanon as we sleep.

DAY TWO (Wednesday)
Or will it? Instead of moving into Lebanon, Rafael’s presence in the Gulf will stall the front and allow it to wither. We will pass through a few showers between about Jackson, Tennessee and Little Rock, which may make passing through Memphis a bit of a headache, but we will see some clear skies in the Ozarks. We’ll trek into eastern Oklahoma with cooler temperatures and clearer skies than Tulsa has seen lately.

Tulsa, Oklahoma

Rocky Mount, North Carolina

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

We keep tearing through forecasts in election swing states, Georgia, Wisconsin, Arizona and now North Carolina. It’s not intentional, but it’s certainly quite the coincidence.

At 553PM, ET, Rocky Mount was reporting a temperature of 66 degrees with fair skies. High pressure over the eastern seaboard was finally starting to be shoved off shore by a deep trough in the plains. Flow at the southwestern end of the ridge is bringing onshore flow, including a few clouds and light showers over South Carolina and Georgia. Overnight tonight, the flow will moderate, and Rocky Mount will stay dry overnight.
The NHC is monitoring Tropical Storm Rafael, which is still south of Jamaica, but will move into the Gulf of Mexico through the forecast period. It isn’t going to be a significant landfalling event for the United States, however the moisture from the storm will be intercepted by the strong boundary moving through the Plains, blunting it’s progress and keeping the Carolinas dry through Wednesday.
Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy, High 78, Low 52
Wednesday – Increasing clouds, High 78, Low 55

TWC: Tomorrow – Areas of fog early, then partly cloudy in the afternoon. Very warm. High 79, Low 52
Wednesday – Cloudy. Very warm. High 81, Low 56

AW: Tomorrow – Areas of morning fog; otherwise, very warm with sunshine and a few clouds; dry weather to get out and vote High 80, Low 52
Wednesday – Very warm with periods of clouds and sunshine; a shower in places in the afternoon High 82, Low 54

NWS: Tomorrow – Patchy dense fog before 10am. Otherwise, mostly sunny, High 79, Low 50
Wednesday – Partly sunny, High 80, Low 59

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy in the morning, then clearing. Patchy dense fog in the morning with visibility one quarter mile or less at times, High 80, Low 54
Wednesday – Mostly cloudy, High 79, Low 57

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy, High 78, Low 56
Wednesday – Partly cloudy with light rain showers, High 79, Low 61

CLI: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 79, Low 52
Wednesday – Mostly cloudy, High 81, Low 57

Of our various forecasts of late, this was surely the easiest. Happy voting, and a happy end to election season!

Avoiding any activity in Athens

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For the weekend, Athens found itself at the coming together of a large ridge of high pressure and an area of low pressure. On shore flow was at it’s peak, and rising moisture seemed likely. Some outlets though rain was coming, but in the end, there wasn’t enough moisture. A surface trough oscillated away from Athens, which took away any trigger for wet weather, but the high overcast still worked to prevent warm temperatures. The Weather Service had the top forecast in town, thanks to a solid appreciation of the temperature trends.
Actuals: Saturday, High 79, Low 58
Sunday, High 71, Low 62

Grade A-C

Phoenix, Arizona

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

It’s time for our second forecast of the day, and as luck would have it, things project to be quite different in the second forecast compared to the first.

At 451PM, MT, Phoenix was reporting a temperature of 66 degrees. Scattered showers were flowing through much of the Southwest, but right now, Phoenix was only reporting showers in the area, but not at the airport. At the upper levels, the base of a deep, autumnal trough as digging into the Four Corners, and cycling moisture through the region, leading to the showers in Phoenix, a band of thunderstorms south of the city near Casa Grande, and even some snow at elevation along the New Mexico border.
Flow through the jet will weaken over the next 12 hours, as moisture also shifts to the northeast into the Plains. Still, with the upper level trough still in place, don’t expect a dramatic warm up, or even significant stretches of sunshine. Wind will pick up again on Tuesday evening, though expect conditions to remain mostly dry.
Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy, High 71, Low 50
Tuesday – Partly cloudy, High 74, Low 47

TWC: Tomorrow – Sunny. High 73, Low 51
Tuesday – Generally sunny.  High 74, Low 49

AW: Tomorrow – Cool with plenty of sunshine High 72, Low 50
Tuesday – Mostly sunny and cool; dry weather to get out and vote High 73, Low 50

NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 72, Low 50
Tuesday – Sunny, High 73, Low 48

WB: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 71, Low 52
Tuesday – Sunny, High 73, Low 50

WN: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 72, Low 51
Tuesday – Mostly sunny, High 72, Low 49

CLI: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 73, Low 52
Tuesday – Sunny, High 74, Low 50

OK, so that doesn’t sound so bad for election day, but it sure sounds like a chilly way to spend a couple days for Arizonans. An active radar pattern appears in Arizona.