Francine is dawdling through the Lower Mississippi Valley. Last night, models suggested she might meander as far north as Minnesota and Wisconsin and I was naturally curious. I don’t recall such a feature ever reaching this far north, so I looked to confirm that was still the suspicion today. Not so much.

One thing I did notice, though, was something that appeared on both American models by Monday evening. I’ve selected the NAM because it is more dramatic looking, but it also appears on the GFS outlook for the same time.

You might find yourself getting ready to head to the grocery stores to stock your cupboards on the Outer Banks, or perhaps looking for safe haven inland. Right now, however, there is nothing even appearing on the NHC page for this zone. There are other waves, and even a Tropical Depression 7 out in the Atlantic, but this is not presently being monitored for development in the net 48 hours.

A massive reason for that is that this feature projects to develop out of thin (well, thickly humid air) air over the Gulf Stream. Certainly possible, but there aren’t obvious drivers for the development, like the induced rotation of a wave. Second, and this is very important: the American Models are the only sources pinging this development.

Moving forward, the GFS and the NAM took their low into North Carolina and Virginia, eventually wasting away in West Virginia. The Europ leaves the band of precipitation over the Atlantic, generally unchanged. Through the extended forecast, this band still remains there, adopting a bit of wave in the long term, but not at the same time or to the degree that the American output suggest.

It’s the tail of a cold front, associated with the wave moving through the Northern Plains today. We should hope for the European Model to bear out, because this would suggest TD7, even if it develops, is going to get pushed north in the open ocean. It may also suggest that the NHC observes the GFS/NAM solution, and isn’t monitoring for tropical development, instead labeling whatever potential gnarliness as subtropical.

We will need to continue to monitor the tropics over the weekend. It looks like we will be in the clear, but it is also important to realize things may change on a dime.