The fun part of the forecast for Youngstown was never the temperature forecast, but rather how much snow they would receive. I am happy to say that, in my video forecast, I pretty much hit the nail on the head. About half an inch on Wednesday, and 1-2″ on Thursday. The temperature forecast, although less fun, was the thing that separated the herd, however. WeatherNation ended up with the top forecast thanks to having the top temperature forecast by a single degree over a group of forecasts that were just too darn cold. I feel like we should get extra credit for putting our forecast on tape, but alas, we do not.
Actuals: Wednesday – .5 inches of snow High 23, Low 9
Thursday, 1.2 inches of snow, High 14, Low 4
I have to admit, these two cities are further apart than I thought they would be. It’s a two day adventure to go from northeastern Ohio to northwest Arkansas, covering about 955 miles. The route is heavy on interstates, and we’ll cover ground at about 64.2mph. At that pace, we will net nearly 514 miles on Thursday and leave the rest for Friday. The Ozarks are very pretty, but I have never seen them snow covered.
DAY ONE (Thursday)
There is a batch of snow that has been a lot more efficient at producing snow accumulation in Upper Midwest. Snow totals of 3-5″ have been seen in Iowa and northern Illinois, which came as a minor surprise. The system is going to lose quite a bit of its bluster overnight. Significantly less intense, though road in coverage snow showers will stretch across our entire Thursday route as we depart. The system will continue to weaken, however, and we will likely see persistent snow come to an end as we cross into Indiana. That’s still a lot of Ohio in which we will see snow showers. This wave is going to stall behind the strong system off the east coast, so the drive will be cloudy, and there may be one or two stray flakes before we end in Brownstown, which is west of Effingham in Illinois.
DAY TWO (Friday)
You really couldn’t ask for a more different forecast guidances for the Red River Valley for tomorrow. I can’t say that enough. It’s mesmerizing. The NAM has snow and ice reaching across the Red River Valley while the GFS has absolutely nothing. This is only relevant for our arrival in Fayetteville, and the brightest weather minds in the business tend to agree that Fayetteville will be in the clear for our arrival. The rest of the drive should be pretty good too. Just be quick about filling your tank, because it will be awfully cold.
I promised you 2 forecasts for the price of one, and I always follow through on a promise!
At 551EST, the temperature in Youngstown, OH was 22 degrees under overcast skies. A cold front is working its way through the Great Lakes, kicking up some snow showers along the lakefront. Some of this activity is expected to swing through the area during the overnight hours. A weak wedge of high pressure will move overhead for the daytime hours tomorrow, giving the area a brief break. A disturbance that will work its way from the Dakotas today into the Mid-MS River Valley tomorrow (as mentioned in my Joplin forecast) will swing its way into the Ohio Valley on Thursday, but will weaken as it does. This is expected to bring some more snow showers to the area, but shouldn’t be of any huge consequence. If anything, both rounds of snow over the next 2 days will just be a nuisance as opposed to anything hugely problematic.
Wednesday: A few scattered morning snow showers, then dry for afternoon. High 18, Low 6.
Thursday: Scattered evening snow showers. High 13, Low 0.
TWC: Wednesday: Partly cloudy, some snow showers. High 21, Low 5.
Thursday: Morning snow showers. High 20, Low 4.
AW: Wednesday: Frigid, morning snow showers. High 19, Low 6.
Thursday: Cloudy, some snow; frigid. High 15, Low 2.
NWS: Wednesday: Early morning snow showers possible, then mostly cloudy. High 20, Low 5.
Thursday: Chance of snow showers. High 14, Low 1.
WB: Wednesday: Scattered morning snow showers, then mostly cloudy. High 18, Low 7.
Thursday: Scattered snow showers. High 14, Low 1.
WN: Wednesday: Mostly cloudy, a few morning light snow showers. High 21, Low 5.
Thursday: More scattered light snow showers. High 14, Low 1.
FIO: Wednesday: Mostly cloudy throughout the day. High 19, Low 8.
Thursday: Light afternoon snow. High 17, Low 5.
It’s a pretty cloudy day over the region as the front works through. Looks like it’ll be a relatively active couple of days in the Great Lakes.
[Update] Here is the video forecast, created earlier in the day.
We’re off for a summer time drive again this afternoon, headed from Louisiana to northeastern Ohio. It will take almost exactly two days. The two cities are 1079 miles apart, and as a result our rate of speed will be about 65.6mph, which, given the drive time east of the Mississippi, isn’t half bad. So let’s see the countryside at 524 miles a fay!
DAY ONE (Saturday)
We continue to have the stagnant upper level trough that has made this one of the coldest summers on record in the eastern two thirds of country sitting right over the Great Lakes. The tail of a cold front and the remnants of a surface wave all find themselves over Dixieland. This might sound like a lot of triggers over one area that could lead to a few thunderstorms, but in the end, it will just lead to a lot of blah. Clouds and rain between Monroe and Memphis. If anything, that trough sitting so comfortably over the Great Lakes will suppress any rain or thunder over Tennessee, and the drive from Memphis to Nashville will be dry and unseasonably cool. The stop on day one will be on the west side of Nashville.
DAY TWO (Sunday)
The weather has just been so disturbed over the central Appalachians for the last several days, it’s hard to imagine that it will be completely clear on Sunday for our route from Nashville to Youngstown. I think the drive through Kentucky shouldn’t give us any problems, but by the time we reach Ohio, it could get a bit dreary. Nothing crazy, no major outbreaks and not even a ton of rain, just a passing spritz and a lot of clouds. And so it will be from Cincinnati to Youngstown.
We are going to set out to ring the Great Lakes in a one day trip covering 556 miles over the course of a little over 9 hours. The average pace in perfect conditions would be 61mph, but lets face it, winter in the Great Lakes, and a drive through Chicago could certainly make things a bit more interesting.
The Great Lakes are going to be squeezed by a pair of systems tomorrow. First, there is the low moving through Illinois today. It will traverse the Ohio Valley through the day, and actually, it should leave northern Ohio alone. When we head out the door tomorrow morning, the system will be east of Youngstown, and we should have easy driving along the Ohio Turnpike. The next system will be a weak wave emerging out of the Upper Midwest. By 7pm, central, about the time we will arrive in Fond du Lac, the snow will only just be arriving in eastern Wisconsin. Despite an active map and snow straddling out entire route, we will somehow manage a safe, dry journey. Congratulations!
I had mentioned that Youngstown was going to see an area of high pressure stanch the flow of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico north to their neck of the woods. As it so happens, this had a greater influence on the forecast than I had originally prognosticated. The low temperatures, unchecked by moisture on Saturday, plummeted to the upper 20s, and the cold front passed through yesterday completely dry. In the end, there was a three way tie at the top, between Accuweather, the Weather Service and Weather Bug.
Actuals: Saturday – High 63, Low 28
Sunday – High 66, Low 42
After all that Anthony time, I am officially back in the saddle for about 10 straight days. I’m going to get started today with Youngstown.
At 1233PM, ET, Youngstown was reporting a temperature of 37 degrees with light snow. A weak lake effect front had swept into the area in the last half hour, bringing the light snow from Cleveland southeast to Youngstown and dropping the temperature by about 5 degrees. An area of low pressure over Eastern Canada was introducing northerly flow, and the thaw of the Lake Erie ice has introduced the necessary moisture.
Fortunately, the pattern is more progressive than it has been over the winter, and a jet will establish itself over the Great Lakes, allowing high pressure to develop over the southeast, cutting off any additional moisture. Still, an area of low pressure over Canada will push a cold front through eastern Ohio Sunday evening, however with moisture stymied, expect only light showers to pass through on Sunday.
Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 60, Low 35
Sunday – Late afternoon showers, High 63, Low 45
TWC: Tomorrow – A mainly sunny sky. High 65, Low 34
Sunday – Few showers. High 64, Low 45
AW: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny and warmer High 62, Low 31
Sunday – Mostly cloudy with a shower in the afternoon High 65, Low 31
NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 62, Low 30
Sunday – A chance of showers. Mostly cloudy High 65, Low 40
WB: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny High 62, Low 30
Sunday – Partly sunny with a 30 percent chance of showers High 65, Low 40
A look at the radar shows the light flurries in the area.