Tag Archives: Topeka

Topeka got throttled

Early last week, we took a look at the forecast for Kansas’ capital, Topeka. A cold front preparing to bisect the Plains was set to touch off thunderstorms in the area on Monday, and it was going to be close, whether or not those storms fired up before the boundary passed Topeka or not. Perhaps the headline gave it away. There were severe storms all around Topeka, particularly northeast of town on Monday night. They collected exactly one inch of rain before all was said and done, with hail and gusty winds to boot. There was just a trace on Tuesday, and the subsequent day must have felt much more comfortable.
Actuals: Monday – 1.00″ in heavy thunderstorms, High 99, Low 69
Tuesday – Trace in rain, high 92, Low 69

Grade: C

Topeka, Kansas

All right, I’m back. Anthony monitored the site and took some good notes for Lubbock while I was away, but now we’re fully staffed. My new babies are sitting here in the room with me as I make this forecast, so now the paternal pressure is on!

At 353PM, CT, Topeka was reporting a sultry 98 degrees with a dew point of 68. Sunny skies dominated the region, but with upper level forcing hanging out in the Dakotas today, it appeared that their was no relief in sight for the day, and 100 degrees with those sticky dew points ensuring heat indices would remain dangerous for the rest of the day.
The pattern is unusually complicated for the middle of June, with a strong area of low pressure developing over the central Plains, though that is currently inactive. Showers and thunderstorms presently on satellite are the creation of a well organized system in the lee of the Canadian Rockies producing storms in the northern High Plains, while a stationary front in the southern Great Lakes is creating storms into the Mississippi Valley.  The surface low in the central Plains will draw northeast as the upper level trough associated with the system in Alberta will dig southwestward. The cold front will hang back with the jet diving into the Dakotas, but a prefrontal trough, acting as a remnant of the original low moving away from the central Rockies, will move through in the evening on Monday. There is a chance for an isolated strong thunderstorm during the PM hours on Monday as the trough moves through. It may take some of the humidity out of the air for Tuesday, however it won’t be a whole lot cooler when the sun comes out again.
Tomorrow – Hot and humid again, with some strong thunderstorms in the area, High 100, Low 76
Tuesday – Clearer and not as hot, High 87, Low 69

TWC: Tomorrow – Intervals of clouds and sunshine. A stray shower or thunderstorm is possible. High 99, Low 77
Tuesday – Generally sunny. High 91, Low 70

AW: Tomorrow – A severe afternoon thunderstorm, with damaging winds and hail; otherwise, partly sunny, hot High 97, Low 76
Tuesday – Some sun, then turning cloudy, a thunderstorm in the afternoon High 92, Low 67

NWS: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny (Late Stors), High 96, Low 77
Tuesday – Mostly sunny, (early storms) High 90, Low 68

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, a 40% chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. High 95, Low 76
Tuesday – Sunny, High 90, Low 69

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy with scattered storms, High 96, Low 76
Tuesday – Mostly sunny, High 90, Low 68

FIO: Tomorrow – Light rain starting in the afternoon, continuing until evening. High 98, Low 76
Tuesday – Light rain overnight. High 91, Low 67

This forecast both overstates and understates the thunderstorm threat. Expect storms could be extremely isolated, but those that develop could be monsters, with large hail and heavy precipitation, in particular. Truth be told, this forecast took about 3 hours to write thanks to those babies I was talking about, but here is the satellite from that time. Note all the activity northeast of Topeka.

Heat, but no thunder

Sorry, with the big basketball news of the day, I had to jazz up my title with some NBA references. We’re actually talking about Topeka, which doesn’t have an NBA presence to speak of, so it makes even less sense. What did make sense was the weather in Topeka towards the end of last week, where temperatures increased ahead of an advancing area of low pressure, emerging from the Rockies. An advancing cold front didn’t reach Topeka by the end of the day Satuday, so the beginning of last weekend was entirely dry. The lack of rain brought two forecasters with the best temperature numbers back to the field, where they tied with two outlets that left rain out of the forecast on Saturday. It was a 4 way tie atop the leaderboard, between Victoria-Weather, The Weather Channel, Accuweather and WeatherNation.
Actuals:  Friday, .02 inches of rain, High 90, Low 69
Saturday – High 95, Low 76

Grade: B

Topeka, Kansas to Miami, Florida

Today we embark on a road trip that starts off almost as far away from the ocean as you can get… to one of the most vibrant coastal cities in the USA. It’s 1,525 miles between Topeka and Miami and will take 3 days to cover the distance. We’re coming for you 305!

Topeka

DAY ONE

A storm system shifting into the Plains will be bringing some tumultous weather to the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest tomorrow. Meanwhile, further south, we depart Topeka heading east to fairly benign conditions. There could be a few afternoon showers or an isolated thunderstorm as we passs Columbia and eventually through St. Louis, but activity should be minimal. We’ll continue towards the south and end the day in Paducah, KY.

DAY TWO

The cold front pushing through the Central US will draw closer throughout the night, but once again, we’ll be continuing our trip southeastward before it really has a chance to catch up at all. The morning hours should be quiet as we drive into TN and through Nashville, continuing towards Chattanooga in the early afternoon. A few scattered thunderstorms could greet us as we make our way through GA, but shouldn’t be anything more than normal daytime pop up thunderstorms in the area. So while we might run into a couple of them, nothing that should totally slow our trip through Atlanta and eventually into Perry, GA for the night.

DAY THREE

There could be some lingering activity when we wake up for our final leg in this journey, as plenty of moisture being pumped into the Southeast ahead of that front will put plenty of juice for cells that linger through the night. Good news is that they should mostly die off fairly quickly after sunrise. However, as we cross into Florida, widespread thunderstorm activity is anticipated over the Sunshine state. Luckily for us, the general flow should push most of it towards the western half of the state, clearing things out a bit as we push through Orlando and eventually into our destination of Miami.

Miami

Topeka, Kansas

Some tumultuous weather has hit the Midwest and Eastern US last couple of days, so let’s direct our attention to the nation’s heartland and see what’s happening in Topeka!

At 753pm CDT, the temperature at Topeka, KS was 82 degrees under fair skies. Tail end of a frontal boundary is found lingering over the Central Plains, which is the focus of some thunderstorm clusters not terrible far southeast of Topeka. Luckily these are sliding away to the east and shouldn’t affect them for the rest of tonight. However, there are some thunderstorms found over eastern CO which could continue pushing into KS and linger throughout the overnight hours. They should dissipate some during the morning hours, but the threat does exist for a couple of these to possibly make it all the way into the area by late morning. If they die out before reaching the city, then the rest of the day should be okay. Friday night into Saturday looks to be quiet, then a cold front approaches from the northeast for Saturday night. Most of the activity should wait until early Sunday morning to move into the region, but a couple stray cells could affect the area before the clock hits midnight.

Friday: Few scattered late-morning thunderstorms possible. High 90, Low 70.
Saturday: Late evening thunderstorms possible. High 93, Low 74.

TWC: Friday: Afternoon thunderstorms. High 93, Low 72.
Saturday: Partly cloudy. High 96, Low 76.

AW: Friday: Partly sunny, an afternoon thunderstorm. High 91, Low 70.
Saturday: An afternoon thunderstorm in spots. High 93, Low 75.

NWS: Friday: Chance of thunderstorms. High 93, Low 71.
Saturday: Mostly sunny, chance of late evening thunderstorms. High 95, Low 75.

WB: Friday: 50% chance of storms. High 90, Low 75.
Saturday: Mostly sunny, chance of evening storms. High 94, Low 77.

WN: Friday: Partly cloudy with isolated storms. High 93, Low 72.
Saturday: Partly cloudy. High 95, Low 75.

FIO: Friday: Light rain until afternoon. High 93, Low 71.
Saturday: Rain in late evening hours. High 96, Low 75.

A cluster of thunderstorms is on their way out, shifting eastwards over MO/AR. The dry conditions won’t last terrible long as unsettled weather will shift back in during the weekend.

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