A breach of protocol

Ryan Henning Leave a comment

Generally, when I put together a verification, which this post is, I use WeatherforMe.com’s “closest NWS site” option. For Santa Cruz, that site is San Martin, 25 miles away from Santa Cruz, and crucially, on the other side of the Santa Cruz Mountains. Temperatures there at initial check were about 15 degrees warmer than forecasts, and another 5-10 degrees colder for overnights. I decided to opt for the road less traveled, and used a MADIS site in town. It was still warmer than expected, but not as egregiously so. The arrival of a feature on the West Coast had effectively drawn the low scud away from the coast and allowed high temperatures to infiltrate. High temps on the 8th and 9th were both warmer than anyone had in the forecast, but low temperatures lined up. Accuweather had the best forecast. Would they have if we verified against a completely different climate?
Actuals: November 8th, High 76, Low 51
November 9th, High 77, Low 53

Grade: B-C

Santa Cruz, California to Provo, Utah

Ryan Henning Leave a comment

I don’t have many examples of a road trip that starts in California that doesn’t take four or five days. We found one! It is only an 836 mile jaunt from Monterrey Bay to Provo, and will take us a day and a half. After we get to the free way, we will move pretty quickly, with an average speed of 65.8mph for the entire route. That means day one will target 526.6 miles, wherever that may lead.

DAY ONE (Saturday)

Santa Cruz, California

Wouldn’t you know it, but the one area of the country with significant weather tomorrow is the West Coast. A pretty significant slug of rain is going to arrive in the Central Coast tomorrow morning. Heavy rain and California roadways are not a match made in heaven, and it will be torrential at times from Santa Cruz to Sacramento. Mudslides in this hilly terrain might be a concern. The angle that this disturbance will come on shore will also circumvent the highest of the Sierras. Sure, there will be some flakes around Truckee pass, but there still may be a few showers in northern Nevada. Fortunately, the terrain, while still prone to flash flooding and mudslides, is more forgiving and gives I-80 a wide birth. Most importantly, the rain will be a lot lighter in the Silver State. We will reach Primeaux, which is east of Winnemucca, as our waypoint.

DAY TWO (Saturday)
Our little feature from central California is going to merge with a larger waves coming out of the Gulf of Alaska. Showers are probably less likely in eastern Nevada, but as we approach the Wasatch, they become more likely again. Just for fun, it might be a bit snowy in the higher terrain of this particular range as well, though we will be driving at a lower elevation through Salt Lake City and south into Provo. Just a bit rainy, is all.

Provo, Utah

Santa Cruz, California

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

We are dangerously close to the weekend. It’s been a soggy week on the West Coast. Will that trend continue?

At 1253PM, PT, Santa Cruz was seeing fair skies with a temperature of 68 degrees. Strong low pressure extended a cool front as far south as about Eureka. There is a lingering marine layer along the coast, but which hasn’t stuck within the bays of the California coast, including Monterey Bay, however an uncharacteristically high dew point suggests that some fog will return overnight.
The boundary won’t ever reach Santa Cruz before high pressure begins to build back in. This means that if there is leftover low clouds and fog in the area, it won’t be scrubbed out. Afternoons should still be sunny and mild, even with some haze in the morning.
Tomorrow – Cloudy early, then clearing, High 69, Low 53
Saturday – Mostly sunny, High 73, Low 54

TWC: Tomorrow – Sunshine along with some cloudy intervals. High 70, Low 52
Saturday – Intervals of clouds and sunshine. High 74, low 52

AW: Tomorrow – Areas of low clouds early; otherwise, sunny and pleasant High 71, Low 51
Saturday – Pleasant with times of clouds and sun High 74, Low 53

NWS: Tomorrow – Patchy fog before 9am. Otherwise, mostly sunny, High 71, Low 51
Saturday – Sunny, High 74, Low 52

WB: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy in the morning then becoming sunny. Patchy fog in the morning.  High 67, Low 54
Saturday – Partly cloudy in the morning then becoming sunny. High 69, Low 55

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 71, Low 51
Saturday – Mostly sunny, High 74, low 52

CLI: Tomorrow – Sunny High 71, Low 51
Saturday – Sunny High 73, Low 50

Clouds are lurking off shore. Will they cause problems? No, probably not, but maybe a bit of fog in the morning.

Pueblo, Colorado to Santa Cruz, California

Ryan Henning Leave a comment

We are taking a two and a half day drive through the western US on this occasion. Expect heat, undulating terrain and a pace of 67mph, or so, with a daily goal of 537 miles. Driving in California is a challenge of it’s own, so we can plan a half day drive in the Golden State. Westward, ho!

DAY ONE (Wednesday)

Pueblo, Colorado

It’s getting busy in the Plains, with showers and storms offering quite a bit for storm chasers to enjoy. The storms usually show up in the afternoon and north of the Palmer Divide lately, and neither of those will apply to our time in Pueblo. In fact, eastern Colorado is looking at a respite from the stormy conditions on Wednesday, so, if anything, it might just be a bit dusty. We will head first south to Albuquerque and west to Petrified Forest National Park, all without a drop. It will be a beautiful drive, and undoubtedly a bit on the warm side.

DAY TWO (Thursday)
If the desert heat doesn’t much bother you on Wednesday, I have a guess that it may on Thursday. We will drive through the heat of the Mohave (in fact, stopping in the town of Mohave for the night) after getting out of the higher terrain of Arizona. Low pressure is setting up a bit in the Rockies, so there could be some light wind, but really, it will be fairly tame as compared to what it usually is (it will be around 100). Your tires aren’t going to melt.

DAY THREE (Friday)
The rise and fall of our drive through the Coastal Range will be the real climate winner for the day. Temperatures will drop to something more tolerable, chilly, even, when the wind is up. Monterey bay will be serene, and we will enjoy our time in Santa Cruz.

Santa Cruz, California