Tag Archives: San Francisco

Just mist

The verification in San Francisco was a bit of a paradox for us at Victoria-Weather. We didn’t forecast any rain, one of two outlets that left it out of the forecast, but there was accumulation reported, probably caused by some pre-dawn mist. Then, as if to rub it in our faces, temperatures got much warmer than they had any right to. Highs topped off in the low 60s, despite that Monday morning mist, which was nonsensical and set V-W further behind the pace. At the opposite end of the spectrum, Forecast.io did very well with this forecast and were the champions by the Bay
Actuals: Monday – Trace of precip, High 61, Low 51
Tuesday – High 61, Low 44

Grade: A-C

San Francisco, California

Here we go with a forecast for the west coast. I’ve been guilty of looking a little too intently at the local weather in Minnesota. What is going on out West?  We’re all going to find out right now!

At 756PM, PT, San Francisco was reporting a temperature of 54 degrees with mostly cloudy skies. Clouds were clearing out from the South Bay down towards Monterey after a fairly disorganized upper level trough continued to work its way through the center part of the state. There was still considerable rainfall over interior northern California, but it appeared this had more to do with terrain rather than any organized instability.
The upper level trough is essentially the backwash of a strong system in the Plains, which explains why there is so little residue along the coast. A high amplitude upper level ridge is building in the west coast behind the upper low, which will bring some stability along the coast, but onshore winds and clear overnight skies may lead to a bit cooler temperatures.
Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy, High 57, Low 50
Tuesday – Partly cloudy, High 58, Low 47

TWC: Tomorrow – Cloudy skies early will become partly cloudy later in the day. Slight chance of a rain shower. High 59, Low 52
Tuesday – A mainly sunny sky. High 60, Low 48

AW: Tomorrow – Cloudy most of the time high 59, Low 51
Tuesday – Plenty of sunshine High 59, Low 45

NWS: Tomorrow – A 20 percent chance of showers before 10am. Mostly cloudy, then gradually becoming sunny, High 59, Low 52
Tuesday – Sunny, High 59, Low 52

WB: Mostly cloudy in the morning then becoming partly cloudy. Breezy. A slight chance of showers in the morning. High 57, Low 53
Tuesday – Sunny, High 57, Low 48

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy with isolated showers, High 59, Low 52
Tuesday – Mostly sunny, High 59, Low 48

FIO: Tomorrow – Light rain overnight. High 60, Low 51
Tuesday – Clear throughout the day. High 59, Low 46

It looks like the big forecast difference is over whether or not there will be showers tomorrow morning. Looking at the radar, I still don’t think rain is very likely.

san-francisco

San Francisco, California to Redding, California

Today is a short, in-state road trip, only 225 miles from the Bay Area to Redding! A nice easy road trip in store for us today…. or IS it?! (Yes, it is)

San Francisco, CA, USA

It should be a fairly nice and mostly sunny morning as we escape the morning rush hour out of the San Fran area, eventually bypassing Sacramento and continuing northwards on I-5. Quiet weather and mostly sunny skies are expected for the duration of our short jaunt upstate, so hope you brought sunglasses for our day trip!

redding

Robot takeover

Many companies in the Silicon Valley are deciding to move their corporate offices out of the San Jose area into San Francisco, moving the center of the tech and internet era towards the more culturally refined jewel of the Bay area. Perhaps, then, we should have paid more attention to the computer outputs for the city. They were trending warmer in SFO than any evaluator saw fit to forecast. Even Forecast.io which is more machine than man couldn’t bring itself to forecast a high yesterday that was as warm as what actually unfolded. Still, FIO adhered to guidance better than anyone else, and ultimately had the top forecast overall.
Actuals: Sunday – High 74, Low 58
Monday – High 82, Low 56
Tuesday: High 82, Low 74

Grade: A-C

San Francisco, California to Indianapolis, Indiana

This is one of the lengthier Google Maps trips we’ve had, and it will cover 4 days through the Rockies and the Plains. It will cover 2275 miles at the blistering Google pace of 68.9mph, which will net us 551.5 miles a day. Let’s get a move on.

DAY ONE (Monday)
San Francisco, CA, USA
Well, not much has changed in the western part of the country this summer, and nothing else is expected to change by tomorrow. We’ll move through northern California, as well as a large tract of northern Nevada. The day will be hot and dry, and there will be a threat that the lightest breeze could kick up some dust over Nevada. The day will end in Wells, in the eastern part of the Nevada.

DAY TWO (Tuesday)
The high pressure center will begin to break down by Tuesday, but it won’t go away. The threat for wind will dissipate for Tuesday, which means an easier drive through Salt Lake City and western Wyoming. The day will end at Bamforth National Wildlife Refuge in Wyoming. The whole state is pretty much a wildlife refuge.

DAY THREE (Wednesday)
We’re going to end up in the Plains during a period weak pressure gradience. Expect light winds, mostly sunny skies, and a whole lot of Nebraska. The day will end in Omaha’s southwest suburbs. We’ll call it La Vista, Nebraska.

DAY FOUR (Thursday)
There will be a churning area of low pressure moving through the Canadian Prairies through much of this week. A phalange of the system will evolve over Saskatchewan and swing south towards the Upper Midwest. A bit of shower activity will slide into eastern Iowa, introducing a threat for some light rain between about Des Moines and Galesburg, Illinois. It will clear up as we dip to the south and then turn back east through Peoria and Champaign. Things should be pretty nice, at least for the moment, in Indianapolis.
Indianapolis

San Francisco, California

Tomorrow – Early fog, High 73, Low 60
Monday – Mostly sunny, High 75, Low 55

TWC: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 75, Low 58
Monday – Partly cloudy, High 78, Low 57

AW: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny and pleasant High 72, Low 57
Monday – Sunny to partly cloudy and pleasant High 75, Low 54

NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 73, Low 59
Monday – Sunny, High 75, Low 59

WB: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy in the morning, then becoming sunny, High 73, Low 59
Monday – Partly cloudy in the morning, then becoming sunny, High 76, Low 59

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly Sunny High 73, Low 59
Monday – Mostly Sunny High 75, Low 59

FIO: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy until afternoon. High 73, Low 58
Monday – Partly cloudy in the morning. High 79, Low 57

The latest GFS came in, and it was even more optimistic about warm temperatures! We’ll see how it goes!

The NAM wins out West

The Weather Channel was the only outlet in San Francisco that called for rain on Saturday. It was there on one of the models, the NAM, which the Weather Channel was the only one that bought into it. Naturally, the NAM was the model that that won out. It accurately picked up the speed with which the shortwave slammed into the coast, bringing about .06″ of new rain to the City by the Bay Saturday before it brought the expected quarter inch on Sunday. As it stood, the Weather Channel had the top forecast in San Francisco.
Actuals: Saturday. 06 inches of rain, High 56, Low 50
Sunday – .25 inches of rain, High 57, Low 46

Grade C

We aren’t going too be able to burn a piece on the top forecaster of the month, now is the time to note that not only did they win the top forecast in San Francisco, they also were the top forecaster for the month, just narrowly edging us at V-W with their winning forecast today. Rats!

San Francisco, California

Off to the west coast for today’s forecast. With all the attention lent to the east coast, what does the West coast have in store?

At 956AM, PT, San Francisco was reporting a temperature of 46 degrees with overcast skies and fog. High pressure has dominated the west and southwest the past several days, which has led to moisture feeding into the San Francisco Bay and funneling into the central Valley.
An upper level trough is developing over the eastern Pacific and is shortwaved enough that it will progress quickly into the west coast. This trough is also going to dig further south than most waves have in the past several days, and is expected to bring a chance for some showers to northern California by Sunday. It isn’t expected to be a lot of rain for San Francisco, just additional dreariness for what they have been seeing in the mornings this week.
Tomorrow – Cloudy early, some clearing late, High 57, Low 45
Sunday – Chance of showers through the day, High 54, Low 48

TWC: Tomorrow – Intervals of clouds and sunshine in the morning with more clouds for later in the day.(late rain) High 58, Low 49
Sunday – Cloudy, periods of rain High 54, Low 50

AW: Tomorrow – Some sun High 55, Low 45
Sunday – Mostly cloudy with a touch of rain in the afternoon High 55, Low 47

NWS: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy High 54, Low 45
Sunday – Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm. Mostly cloudy High 56, Low 47

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy. Patchy fog in the morning High 56, Low 45
Sunday – A slight chance of thunderstorms in the morning. Showers likely High 55, Low 47

The Weather Channel is going with the NAM, which I generally don’t like out west. The NAM wants rain in San Francsisco a lot sooner. I’m also surprised to see thunder in the forecast for the Weather Service and Weatherbug. Current satellite is pretty quiet, but you can really make out the fog in the Central Valley.