Portland, Oregon to Dover, Delaware

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Confirmed: It is a long way from Portland to Dover. 2892 miles, in fact, and that distance will take us 5 days to cover, and that last day will be an 11 hour grind. The pace will be 67.2 mph, which translates to 538 miles a day. This is a long one, folks.

DAY ONE (Saturday)

Portland, Oregon

Low pressure will have moved inland from the Pacific Northwest as we depart tomorrow morning. Moisture will be able to clear the Cascades, but will begin to squeeze out moisture again as this instability reaches the Rockies. Rain will be tapering, but still possible in Portland to the Dalles, and we will be dry in the Columbia River Gorge. We will pop out again and head southeast towards Boise, where we will encounter a few more showers between Pendleton and Baker City. The higher terrain of Idaho is both well to the north of our route and well to the east. We will reach Wendell, between Mountain Home and Twin Falls, without fear of rain.

DAY TWO (Sunday)
Precipitation in the mountains always looks messy, but there is expected to be organization in the lee of the Rockies, which will clear the skies along our route. No worries crossing the Wasatch, except for running out of gas. Not many places to stop, and we will end the night in Table Rock, Wyoming, which might not be a real place.

DAY THREE (Monday)
This is going to be a weird point to refer to, but back in the Gulf of California, an old tropical feature will be making landfall, kicking some moisture from the south up into the Rockies. Some of this moisture is expected to bleed into the Plains, where it will intercept the tail of a cold front extending from Hudson Bay, and it may bring a light shower to south central Nebraska. That is a worst case scenario, though, and I don’t believe it likely. I think instead we will get some windswept prairie and a chilly time parking in Gibbon, for our stop on Monday night.

DAY FOUR (Tuesday)
This wasn’t on my bingo board, but yes, on this trip we will be dealing with some tropical moisture in Nebraska on Tuesday. Rain should be starting overnight in Gibbon, which is near Kearney, if you were wondering, and may be steady at times, all the way to Omaha, which will be the largest city we will have seen in days. The rain will lighten, and we will dry out around Bondurant, shortly after passing Des Moines. Cedar Rapids and the Quad Cities will be dry, and we will make it about a third of the way through Illinois, stopping in Spring Valley for the night.

DAY FIVE (Wednesday)
Because of the way this works we will touch parts of 7 states in 11 long hours. Fortunately, we should have unobstructed views of all those welcome signs, because high pressure will be building in the Great Lakes, pushing towards the mid-Atlantic. Temperatures will be comfortable for the season, and we will be exhausted upon arriving in Dover.

Dover, Delaware

Gulfport, Mississippi to Portland, Oregon

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This drive will take 5 days, headed cross country over 2,567miles at a pace of about 67.5mph, and a target of 540 miles a day. If you are like me, perhaps you are wondering “how long would it take to travel from these two ports by sea?” According to my research: Over a month. Let’s take the car!

DAY ONE (Thursday)

Gulfport, Mississippi

Pressure is high across most of the country, which long time readers know, of course, means weather is pretty ok! The first drive of this trip will start with some low clouds, maybe some drizzle in Gulfport, but just a short jaunt inland will bring much cooler temperatures and clearer skies. we’ll make it to Forney on the east side of Dallas after what should be a pretty nice day in the car.

DAY TWO (Friday)
We will continue on our northwesterly voyage through what will probably be our driest and dustiest day. The route will carry us through west Texas and the Panhandles, before coming to an end in Campo, in far southeaster Colorado.

DAY THREE (Saturday)
Westerly flow throughout the Rockies is going to start inducing some surface low pressure on the lee. Jet structure is going to amplify the development of low pressure, and moisture in the southwest will draw into the Rockies. There is definitely a shot at precipitation on Saturday, and I would say it will increase around Fort Collins, and be the most likely at the end of the day, as we unload in Wamsutter, Wyoming.

DAY FOUR (Sunday)
Low pressure will work to consolidate overnight in Canada, and our route will dry out considerably. The precipitation on the west side of Wyoming may briefly be wet snow, so if you want to see that, get going early. Northern Utah and southern Idaho are going to be idyllic. We’ll stop in Meridien on the western side of Boise to conclude our drive.

DAY FIVE (Monday)
Low pressure will be scooting down the Pacific Coast into the Pacific Northwest as we wrap up our last day of travel. The low will bring the rain and low clouds that the Pacific Northwest is famous for, but it will be confined primarily to the area on the west side of the Cascades. The first remote chance of rain will be around Willow Lake, but the first real chances will be in The Dalles. Expect it to be a bit gloomy in Portland on our arrival.

Portland, Oregon

Portland, Oregon

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Ooh boy, need to be careful with my keywords on this one. You haven’t heard about Portland in the news lately, have you?

At 353PM, PT, Portland was reporting a temperature of 78 degrees with clear skies. The Pacific Northwest was enjoying a nice, warm and clear stretch to begin the week, which was allowing temperatures to be warm, though not unbearable.
A jet trough is sliding southeasterly along the British Columbian coast, which may bring about a few more upper level clouds as well as a refreshing ocean flow. Eventually, there will be some clouds and drizzle as a result, but not before our forecast period expires.
Tomorrow – Isolated clouds, High 77, Low 50
Wednesday – Increasingly cloudy and cooler, High 63, Low 52

TWC: Tomorrow – Sunny. High 79, Low 52
Wednesday – Mostly sunny skies. High 64, Low 49

AW: Tomorrow – Sunny, nice and warm High 78, Low 50
Wednesday – Partly sunny and cooler High 64, Low 50

NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 77, Low 53
Wednesday – Mostly sunny, High 63, Low 49

WB: Tomorrow – Sunny. High 77, Low 54
Wednesday – Mostly sunny. High 62, Low 51

WN: Tomorrow – Sunny. High 76, Low 53
Wednesday – Partly sunny with showers. High 62, Low 49

CLI: Tomorrow- Sunny, High 78, Low 54
Wednesday – Partly cloudy High 65, Low 48

Nice weather out there on the West Coast.

Human input

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With a wave of energy coming off the Gulf of Alaska, it seemed possible that Portland would see some rain on the 23rd. The model guidance had it, and the outlets that lean a bit more closely on extracting data explicitly from models included it in their forecast. Victoria-Weather was the only man powered forecaster to include it. Ultimately, Portland didn’t see any rain. Score one for the old fashioned way. The Weather Channel secured victory, while Accuweather collected their third 2nd place in a row!
Actuals: October 23rd, High 58, Low 43
October 24th, High 60, Low 39

Grade: A-C

Portland, Oregon

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

We are headed out west for the forecast. British Columbia was on the receiving end of the “atmospheric river” this week. How does that translate a little further south, to Portland?

At 1104AM, PT, Portland was reporting a temperature of 48 degrees with overcast skies. There were lingering low clouds along the Cascades, but clearing at low levels with some insolation. The jet stream was visible on satellite, given some mid layered clouds over Oregon. An upper level trough is off kilter, directed east to west off shore from Oregon. As it comes to alignment with a more zonal flow pattern, cold air will move into western Oregon, and there are freeze warnings in parts of the region.
As the trough pivots on land, it is expected to excrete some of it’s moisture over the center of the state, which may include a bit of rain in Portland on Wednesday evening, though most of the activity will be further south, and further inland. Behind this boundary, moist onshore flow will continue from the Pacific, which will lead to a cloudy and fairly dreary Thursday morning, with some breaks in the afternoon.
Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy, with a chance of rain in the evening, High 57, Low 43
Thursday – Cloudy early, clearing late. High 59, Low 41

TWC: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy skies, High 58, Low 41
Thursday – Partly cloudy. High 60, Low 41

AW: Tomorrow – Times of clouds and sun High 58, Low 42
Thursday – Mostly cloudy High 59, Low 42

NWS: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy, then gradually becoming sunny, High 57, Low 42
Thursday – Mostly sunny, High 57, Low 40

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy in the morning then mostly sunny with a slight chance of rain showers in the afternoon, High 54, Low 43
Thursday – Mostly sunny, High 55, Low 42

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy with light rain showers, High 54, Low 43
Thursday – Partly cloudy, High 54, Low 42

CLI: Tomorrow – Light Rain showers, High 59, Low 43
Thursday – Partly cloudy, High 60, Low 43

Not everyone is on board with rain, which makes sense. I think the threat is low, but given the lead time is still over 24 hours, I’m not ready to pull it out of the forecast yet. You can certainly follow the course of the jet stream on the satellite imagery.

Overnight drops

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For as heavily as the northeast has been impacted by the weather this year, and all the talk we get every winter of nor’easters and what not, the little round of showers that passed through on early Wednesday morning is almost mythological. The 5 hundredths of an inch that came to Portland on Wednesday morning before the sun was up registered only in the observations at the airport. For the first time in November, the win didn’t go to Victoria-Weather, but rather to Weatherbug. The big differentiator was the low temperature forecasts, as the low temperatures were much cooler than expected.
Actuals: Tuesday – High 66, Low 32
Wednesday – .05 inches of rain, High 56, Low 38

Grade: C-D

Portland, Maine

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

We are forecasting for Portland, Maine mere days after verifying a forecast for Portland, Oregon. I have nothing to add to that, but felt as though I needed to acknowledge it.

At 751PM, ET, Portland was reporting a temperature of 42 degrees with clear skies. In what can only be described as an upset victory, New England was entirely under clear skies on this early November evening. The most recent Gulf Stream storm was well off the coast, and actually helping to inhibit moisture for the next system working its way across Hudson Bay.
That feature over Hudson Bay, while limited in potential precipitation, is still backed by good upper level support and substantial surface reflection in terms of temperature and lack of moisture. Tonight will ultimately be a foggy one for Portland and most of coastal Maine, however the cold front will bring first a spot of light rain overnight Tuesday to Wednesday, with a chance for cooler crisper air after the morning low clouds clear out on Wednesday.
Tomorrow – AM fog, then mostly sunny, Light rain possible rain before midnight High 58, Low 37
Wednesday – Light rain through the morning, becoming sunny, High 57, Low 38

TWC: Tomorrow – Plentiful sunshine. High 60, Low 37
Wednesday – Showers in the morning, then partly cloudy in the afternoon. High 55, Low 42

AW: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny; great day to be outside High 57, Low 35
Wednesday – Clouds breaking, a shower possible High 55, Low 41

NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny High 60, Low 40
Wednesday – Cloudy through mid morning, then gradual clearing, High 55, Low 40

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy, High 59, Low 32
Wednesday – Mostly cloudy in the morning, then clearing (rain early) High 53, Low 39

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 60, Low 41
Wednesday – Partly cloudy with isolated showers, High 55, Low 45

FIO: Tomorrow – Clear throughout the day. High 60, Low 39
Wednesday – Light rain overnight and in the morning. High 57, Low 46

It’s going to be a nice couple of days in Portland, and the rain will even have the decency to come overnight. Look how beautiful New England is tonight.

Missing the rain

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Portland certainly did not miss the rainfall last week, which makes it fairly impressive, in a way, that our forecast fell between the blasts of bomb cyclone and atmospheric river. In fact, on the days of October 27th and 28th, there was only a combined .03 inches of rain. The cloud cover kept temperatures from ranging a whole lot on the 27th, but then, with significantly less activity on the 28th,they really blossomed, hitting 69 degrees. Accuweather did a good job figuring all of this out ahead of time, successfully winning this forecast, notably with the warmest high temperatures on the 28th.
Actuals: October 27th – .03 inches of rain, High 58, Low 52
October 28th, Trace of rain, High 69, Low 53

Grade: A-C

Portland, Oregon to Trenton, New Jersey

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Two cities that are slightly inland, but have been pummeled by extremely heavy rain in the last week. They seem similar, but are separated by 2884 miles. We will take 5 days to cover all this ground, including a really long day at the end, moving at a pace of 67mph, and we will cover about 536.5 miles a day for the first 4 days of the week. If there is anything nasty coming this week, we will sure see it on this trip.

DAY ONE (Thursday)

Portland, Oregon

The next wave of wet weather moving into the Pacific Northwest will really arrive on shore overnight tonight, though rain and some mountain snow has continued to fall from Portland to the Cascades. The wind and precipitation will be heavier through the morning as far east as Biggs Junction than it has been today, but then, it will cut off. The system will be angled towards the north, and should leave the rest of our route on Thursday unmolested. We’ll stop in Wendell, Idaho which is northwest of Twin Falls, for the night.

DAY TWO (Friday)
A ridge is setting up over the Rockies for late in the week, and that coincides pretty sweetly with our trek through the region. Idaho, Utah and Wyoming will be dry on Friday, with seasonable warmth and sunshine. We’ll make it to Arlington, Wyoming, northwest of Laramie on Friday.

DAY THREE (Saturday)
The low pressure feature that was arriving on shore as we attempted to leave Portland is going to ride over the ridge as we head east. It will feature a mostly inactive cold front diving into the northern High Plains on Saturday as we cross the Nebraska prairies. We will make it to Lincoln, where we will stop for the night, amid increasing breezes and temperatures ready to cool down. Now, my alma mater, the Purdue Boilermakers are playing in Lincoln on Saturday, but I swear this is just a coincidence.

DAY FOUR (Sunday)
A cold front is going to be moving at about our pace through Iowa and northern Illinois, but this is probably a good thing. It looks like it will be dry throughout the drive, but will instead just give us a nice little tailwind. Sure, it will feel chilly when we stop for gas, but that gas will come with better mileage! Of course, the stop and go of the Chicago area will slow us down, and we will make it to Hobart, Indiana, just across the border, leaving one final, albeit lengthy day to wrap this bad boy up.

DAY FIVE (Monday)
That crisp breeze will be our companion, only helped, surely, but the Great Lakes to our north. The Appalachians in Pennsylvania will bring respite from the wind, and ultimately the cold, as the East Coast looks to mostly avoid the worst of the cold air brought by the area of low pressure quickly marching towards Hudson Bay. Trenton will be experiencing some partly cloudy skies with southerly breezes when we arrive, a far cry from what they saw last weekend

Portland, Oregon

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

Our first forecast of the workweek, and perhaps the last of October (I don’t know that, just how slowly I operate) takes us to the teeth of a bomb cyclone/atmospheric river, and a whole lot of climate buzzwords.

At 553AM, PT, Portland was reporting a temperature of 52 degrees with light rain. The Portland metropolitan area was still getting soaked, The rainfall in the Pacific Northwest is ongoing west of the Cascades, but at a lessened rate than it has over the last few days. The strong system in the Gulf of Alaska has moved towards the Panhandle near Sitka and Juneau, which has decreased the westerly flow, but the low level moisture is still available, and the flow is enough that the Cascades will still see steady precipitation with more intermittent rain in Portland.
While all this is good news, it will take until the middle of the day on Wednesday to really wind down, so occasional breezes and rain will be a fixture today and through the beginning of tomorrow. Wednesday afternoon will be the nicest stretch of the forecast, as a secondary, but weaker reinforcing wave is expected to emerge off the Oregon Coast, arriving overnight Wednesday to Thursday. This feature will take a direct shot at the Olympic Peninsula, but Portland will see more rain and wind, especially in the evening on Thursday as the next round slides ashore. This second round will bring a warmer ridge northward, and some warming should be anticipated late.
Tomorrow – Rain in the morning, a bit of clearing late, High 60, Low 50
Thursday – Rain, maybe a rumble of thunder in the evening, High 65,Low 52

TWC: Tomorrow – Cloudy with occasional light rain in the afternoon. High 57, Low 51
Thursday – Rain showers in the morning will evolve into a more steady rain in the afternoon High 65, Low 53

AW: Tomorrow – A thick cloud cover with a little rain High 58, Low 51
Thursday – Mostly cloudy with a couple of showers HIgh 67, Low 54

NWS: Tomorrow – Showers likely before 2pm, then rain likely after 2pm. Cloudy, High 58, Low 50
Thursday – Rain. High 64, Low 50

WB: Tomorrow – Showers likely until afternoon, then rain likely late in the afternoon, High 55, Low 50
Thursday – Rain, High 64, Low 52

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with light showers likely, High 58, Low 50
Thursday – Mostly cloudy with rain, High 64, Low 53

FIO: Tomorrow – Light rain throughout the day. High 60, Low 48
Thursday – Light rain throughout the day. High 62, Low 57

We are all over the place in what we expect will happen in Portland over the next couple of days. I’m very interested in seeing how it all plays out.