Tag Archives: Merced

Ocean City, New Jersey to Merced, California

We’re rolling cross country tonight, with a long road trip, lasting 5 1/2 days and stretching from one coast almost all the way to the other coast. The mileage will be 2964 miles,, which we will cover at a pace of 539 miles per day, or a little bit more that 67mph. This is going to be a long drive, but at least we will maintain a good pace. Head west, young meteorologist!

DAY ONE (Tuesday)

A weak area of low pressure is spiraling out of the Plains towards the mid-Atlantic. There has been a good deal of severe weather tonight associated with the cold front moving through the Tennessee Valley, but fortunately, as we leave the Ocean City beaches, we won’t have any severe weather with which to occupy our minds with. In fact, through the Philadelphia area, we won’t have any inclement weather disrupting travel. When we do encounter the system, it will be in the hills of Pennsylvania, and it will be in the stratiform rain portion of the system. No thunderstorms for us, but rather a few scattered showers between Harrisburg and Bedford. We should be out of the rain by the time he hit Pittsburgh, and the sun will be shining for the portion of our day spent in Ohio. We’ll stop in Bloomingville, just south of Sandusky, Ohio.

DAY TWO (Wednesday)
We will be between systems on Wedensday as we continue our westward progression towards the Golden State. Ohio, Indiana and Illinois will not present us with any weather worries, though here will be an increase in clouds as we reach western Illinois. The next system will be waiting in the Plains, but like our encounter in Pennsylvania, we will be too far north to worry about thunderstorms, rather seeing some scattered showers in eastern Iowa before pulling in for the night Williamsburg, between Iowa City and Des Moines.

DAY THREE (Thursday)
We are at the point where we are starting to see some divergence in the models. The NAM will keep rain in our route, some of it could include thunder and a brief downpour, all the way west to Grand Island, Nebraska. The GFS, on the other hand, thinks we will be done with rain by the time we reach Des Moines. I happen to think there will be a more abrupt cutoff, but I will officially say that rain will linger all the way to Omaha. That will give us the rest of Nebraska to enjoy in all of its sunlit splendor. We will finish the day in western Nebraska, in Roscoe.

DAY FOUR (Friday)
Another day, another system. This will bring about the added obstacle of snow showers as we hit the higher terrain in central Wyoming. It should be dry, but with increasing clouds until we hit Elk Mountain, but then we will start to see the mountain flurries and lower terrain rain showers. The good news is, we are late enough in the season that the snow levels will be pretty high up. The bad news is, when we hit them, it will be coming down like the dickens. We’ll cross into Utah before the day concludes, but only just. The day will end in Wahsatch, the first exit in the Beehive State.

DAY FIVE (Saturday)
The highlight of our Saturday will be passing through Salt Lake City, because we won’t really see much else on our drive. The sun will be out, and a dusty Great Basin day will unfold before us. We wiill make it to the Fallon area in Nevada, east of Reno before we call it a night. We could probably make it to Reno, because we can almost certainly drive a heck of a lot faster through Nevada than we said in the intro to this piece.

DAY SIX (Sunday)
Our Sunday will be just as weather-averse as our Saturday, but at least we will see Reno, Sacramento, Lake Tahoe and other things that end with the same sound. Merced will be comfortable, sunny and warm.

Problems come out at night

If you considered only the daylight hours, the forecast for Merced was pretty good. Everyone who, at the time, had a functional website, did pretty well with their forecast highs. There were a few exceptions, but it was mostly ok. But then, there were the overnight lows. Thats when most of the error came. The worst was the Wednesday morning low, which nobody did better than 4 degrees of error. the top forecast came to Weatherbug, who rose to the top with a perfect Thursday high.
Actuals: Wednesday – Rain reported, not measured, High 61, Low 43
Thursday – High 64, Low 40

Grade: B-C

Merced, California

Let’s get out to California. There was a tornado warning just northwest of Merced today. Anything else to be concerned about on the horizon?

At 953PM, CT, Merced was reporting a temperature of 57 degrees with mostly cloudy skies. The tornado threat of this afternoon is long past, though there were a few showers well to the north towards Chico, while Merced and the area around was much clearer. A cold front swept through the area earlier, and there was some wind damage reported in the central Valley as it passed by. Through the day tomorrow, a sharp upper level trough will remain in place over the west coast, and an onshore flow will allow the threat for showers, particularly along the western exposures of the Coastal Range and Sierra Nevadas to persist.
A shortwaved ridge will move into the area by Thursday morning as the region will clear out. There will be a bit of a clearing on Thursday, allowing for a warm up and sunshine. The break will be short lived, as the next threat for rain will arrive by Friday.  Surface low pressure will linger off the coast of British Columbia, only to be reinforced by a newly arrived upper level wave on Friday. This persistent surface feature may lead to Merced being a bit murkier, even on Thursday, when t will otherwise be clearer.
Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy, with a chance for light rain, High 62, Low 50
Thursday – Partly cloudy, High 63, Low 44

TWC: Tomorrow – Rain showers in the morning with scattered thunderstorms arriving in the afternoon. High 62, Low 47
Thursday – Partly cloudy. High 66, Low 43

AW: Tomorrow – Site is down for maintenance 🙁

NWS: Tomorrow – A chance of showers, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after noon. Mostly cloudy, High 65, Low 48
Thursday – Mostly sunny High 67, Low 43

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers. Slight chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon. High 60, Low 48
Thursday – Mostly sunny, High 64, Low 43

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with light showers likely. High 64, Low 48
Thursday – Mostly sunny, High 66, Low 43

FIO: Tomorrow – Light rain starting in the afternoon. High 64, Low 48
Thursday – Partly cloudy starting in the afternoon, continuing until evening. high 71, Low 41

I tried to wait out Accuweather, but I need to go to bed. No forecast from them tonight. here is the radar in northern California, which will pick back up again tomorrow .

Weather Way-back: Offshore winds in Merced

Anthony forecast for Merced way back in September, and while it factored into the forecaster of the month standing,s it didn’t get properly verified. The weather was supposed to be clear, with a dry slot working its way into the central California coast. It was there, it was dry, but another thing happened with the subsidence along the coast: Offshore winds. This allowed temperatures to rise dramatically from day 1 to day 2 as Great Basin air was mechanically warmed as it moved through town. The clear skies allowed the nights to remain relatively cool.It was those low temperatures that really set forecasters apart in an otherwise tight battle. The Weather Channel and Accuweather tied at the top.
Actuals: September 14th: High 81, Low 51
September 15th: High 88, Low 50

Grade: A-B

Merced, California

Today we venture off to Central CA, where hopefully the weather is nicer than it is over the Southeast US, where a tropical storm has developed OVER Florida. Doesn’t make sense to you? Yeah me neither. Well, off to CA!

At 653pm PDT, the temperature at Merced, CA was 70 degrees under fair skies. An area of low pressure is swirling over the Great Basin currently, slowly pushing its way off to the east. A few clouds were seen in the Merced area today, but not even those are expected tomorrow as clear skies and bright sunshine is expected to blanket the area tomorrow. More of the same is anticipated for Thursday, albeit just a bit warmer. As is the case it seems, Central CA is pretty quiet this time of year and this week is no different!

Wednesday: Sunny. High 82, Low 51.
Thursday: Continued sunny and warmer. High 87, Low 54.

TWC: Wednesday: Sunny. High 83, Low 51.
Thursday: Sunny. High 88, Low 53.

AW: Wednesday: Plenty of sunshine. High 83, Low 51.
Thursday: Plenty of sunshine. High 87, Low 52.

NWS: Wednesday: Sunny. High 82, Low 51.
Thursday: Sunny. High 87, Low 55.

WB: Wednesday: Sunny. High 82, Low 52.
Thursday: Sunny. High 86, Low 55.

WN: Wednesday: Sunny. High 82, Low 52.
Thursday: Sunny. High 88, Low 55.

FIO: Wednesday: Clear throughout the day. High 86, Low 49.
Thursday: Clear throughout the day. High 91, Low 50.

Here is a water vapor image of the Western US, with a pretty strong dry slot working its way over the CA coastline, and getting sucked into a system moving its way through the Great Basin. Dry and pleasant weather is expected throughout the rest of the week!


Athens, Georgia to Merced, California

Let’s close this weekend out with a long excursion. It’s a 2431 miles and will take us an entire work week. We’re going to be on a pace of 64.5mph, which will gain ourselves 516 miles a day, with Friday being a shorter drive. This is a long drive, certainly, but a cross country trek could certainly be longer. It’s a long trip. Let’s get going.

DAY ONE (Monday)
Athens, GA
It’s an unusual stretch of summer time weather across the southern US. There isn’t much by way of showers and thunderstorms, despite what you would typically see this time of year in terms of nearly constant convection. There is a broad system in eastern Canada that is steering in stable air. It doesn’t happen often in the southern US, but we should drive through Dixie in August with nary a thunderstorm in the forecast. We will reach Wheatley, Arkansas which is east of Little Rock by the end of the day.

DAY TWO (Tuesday)
Western Arkansas and eastern Oklahoma will be relatively bland on Tuesday. All I-40 and no precipitation to speak of. By the time we reach Oklahoma City, though, we will run into a complex of showers and storms, generally on the west side of town. They will actually be fading with the afternoon heat of the southern Plains leading to a developing cap. By the time we reach Weatherford west of town, we’ll be through the shower activity. We’re going to stop for the night in Elk City, where it should be dry.

DAY THREE (Wednesday)
It will be another dry day as we head west. There will be some mid level clouds throughout western Oklahoma when we get going, but in the Texas Panhandle and New Mexico, it will be sunny, dusty and breezy. Maybe keep the windows up so dust doesn’t get in our eyes. The day will end in Bluewater Village, New Mexico. They have a Dairy Queen!

DAY FOUR (Thursday)
OK, so we’re going to be driving through the desert. Arizona will be a little cooler, since we’re driving at elevation, but the Mojave will be very warm. The funny thing is, though, the monsoon is going to be switched off until very late. We’re not going to see any thunderstorm activity through the drive into southern California. We’ll stop at Kelbaker Road right into the Mojave Preserve. Hot.

DAY FIvE (Friday)
Thunderstorms will be cropping up in the higher terrain, thanks to a resurgent monsoon over the west. Fortunately, the drive from Barstow to Merced will be right in the middle the San Joaquin Valley. Expect a partly cloudy sky in Merced. A weak wave moving through northern California will bring some cooler temperatures to Merced. That’s going to be nice after our dusty trek until this point.

Merced, California to Dalton, Georgia

It’s been such a long time since we had ourselves a road trip, so let’s blow it out with a 4 day, 2341 mile journey through the southern US. With this drive, we can expect a pace of 67.5mph, which will give us a whopping 540 miles a day. That’s pretty good! Of course, the final day on the trip, we will move a little it further. So let’s make our way across the country, then!

As we noted with the forecast for Salt Lake City a couple of days ago, we are looking at a pretty stuck-in ridge over the west. The high pressure is helping to trap some moisture down at the surface. Expect a little bit of haze as we drive through the Central Valley of California because of this. As soon as we climb out of the Valley southeast of Bakersfield, expect some smooth sailing through the Mojave. The day will end at Fort Rock Road, which is between Kingman and Seligman.

This is something that should make everyone in the northern and northeastern US cringe a little bit: Not only will it be sunny and dry for Tuesday and Wednesday, but it will also be quite warm. It will be hard to find anything wrong with the driving conditions through Arizona and New Mexico. Our day will end in Santa Rosa, in eastern New Mexico.

Things are going to take a dramatic turn by the time we are ready to head out on Thursday. A bundle of energy is going to be riding the Front Range on the western periphery of an Arctic Ridge building deep into the center of the country. Leaving New Mexico and passing through the Texas Panhandle, we may be subject to some snow and blustery winds. This is the right part of the country to see blowing snow, and the conditions seem favorable for it. Of course, by the time we pass into Oklahoma, this snowburst will be in our rearview mirror. They won’t see any snow, but it will be significantly colder as we continue our eastward trek. Plan on ending the day at Lake Eufaula in eastern Oklahoma.

The problem with Arctic high pressure is that it is Arctic. It will be uncharacteristically chilly through Arkansas, Tennessee and far northern Georgia. Of course, the good thing about Arctic high pressure is that it is high pressure. Expect dry conditions, even if everyone is all bundled up as we make our way into Dalton.