Tag Archives: Lawton

The Dusty Plains

While a massive thunderstorm complex raged in the Lower Mississippi Valley before spreading east into the Southeast. The vast range of moisture orbiting around it seemed to suggest that places like Lawton would see some light rain, at the very least, and potentially some thunderstorms. Instead, there weren’t even clouds overnight in southwestern Okahoma, which allowed temperatures to plummet overnight, scuttling the forecasts of many outlets. Accuweather had the top forecast, with only a slight nod towards potential precipitation and cooler overnight lows.
Actuals: Saturday – High 66, Low 33
Sunday – High 63, Low 37

Grade C-D

Little Rock, Arkansas to Lawton, Oklahoma

I would definitely say that this short road trip is best taken tomorrow than today, what with severe weather pummeling southern Arkansas tonight, with tornadoes south of Pine Bluff, near El Dorado. Our drive to the relatively calm Oklahoma will take about 6 hours while we cover 419 miles. The drive is not as the crow flies, which is so we can hop on the interstate and travel at a pace of 68.9mph  down I-40.

Low pressure presently causing severe weather in southern Arkansas won’t be getting much weaker overnight, and the center of circulation will track over the state through morning hours. Fortunately, by tomorrow morning the threat for severe storms will have moved on to the Carolinas, but heavy rain will be a strong possibility through Fort Smith, with some lighter showers continuing until we reach the Checotah exit in Oklahoma, just before we cross Lake Eufaula. Rain through central Oklahoma will take it’s time in exiting, but through Oklahoma City and on to Lawton, I suspect we will be in good shape.

Lawton, Oklahoma

Let’s keep this forecast train runnin’ with a trip to Oklahoma for another forecast. Oklahoma is often one of the more interesting places to forecast for. Will it live up to it’s reputation tonight?

At 1253AM, CT, Lawton was reporting clear skies with a temperature of 40 degrees.  The clear skies will hold until the early evening on Saturday. There is a virulent perturbation moving into the southeastern US that will bring some severe weather from Louisiana to Georgia. The broader upper trough will be shifting out of the Rockies and generating circulation in the lee of the mountains.
The emerging system will be stronger in a synoptic sense than the smaller one inflicting its wrath on Saturday, but it will really only come together after the center of circulation is on top of Lawton. Most of the rain and thunderstorms will develop in eastern Arkansas and spread east of the Mississippi. Rain showers will wrap around the circulation, leading to stratiform showers in Lawton, rather than heavier downpours or thunderstorms. The swiftly developing feature will move very quickly, with dry air returning to Lawton by Sunday afternoon, though this time, it will be much cooler.
Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, turning to overcast with showers late. High 69, Low 37
Sunday – Rain early, with sun returning in the afternoon, High 61, Low 42

TWC: Tomorrow – Cloudy skies early, then partly cloudy in the afternoon. Slight chance of a rain shower. High 69, Low 37
Sunday – Sun and a few clouds with gusty winds. High 61, Low 44

AW: Tomorrow – Mild with intervals of clouds and sunshine High 66, Low 38
Sunday – Windy with clouds giving way to sun (early rain) High 60, Low 40

NWS: Tomorrow – Partly sunny, (Late rain and thunderstorms) High 63, Low 42
Sunday – A 30 percent chance of showers before noon. Mostly cloudy, then gradually becoming sunny High 56, Low 40

WB: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy. A chance of rain showers in the afternoon. High 66, Low 41
Sunday – Mostly sunny (early storms) High 58, Low 39

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy with scattered showers, High 64, Low 41
Sunday – Partly cloudy (early rain), High 6, Low 41

FIO: Tomorrow – Light rain in the evening. high 61, Low 39
Sunday – Breezy and partly cloudy in the morning. High 59, Low 42

Lawton and the rest of Oklahoma will steer well clear of the nastiest weather this time around. You can see they are between the two systems I referenced at this hour.

Lawton, Oklahoma to Panama City, Florida

We’re going to head to the beach today, with a nice little two day trip across the Mississippi from Oklahoma to Florida. It’s a 956 mile journey, with a little bit longer leg coming on Friday. There isn’t as much interstate on this trek as we might like, and as a result, our pace will be 62.8mph. That will allow us to cover 502 miles on Friday, the rest on Saturday. This is about the time of year to find some sand.

DAY ONE (Friday)
Lawton
High pressure is overwhelming the south central United States, pushing all of the weather towards New England and the Pacific Northwest. The temperatures aren’t as blazing as they are in the summer either, so the combination of pleasurable temperatures and clear skies could make to for an easy drive to Holly Ridge, Louisiana, which is east of Monroe.

DAY TWO (Saturday)
A cold front moving just off shore is going to keep pushing the remnants of a tropical depression southeast and away from Florida. It was never going to threaten Panama City; I mostly just didn’t want to say “high pressure” to start another day of the drive. It should be great beach weather when we reach it.
Panama City

Drizzle Levels Playing Field

Clouds and some light dizzle fell on Lawton midday Wednesday, keeping the temperatures in the mid 70s through the mid-afternoon hours. The clouds finally broke and allowed the temperature to spike up into the mid 80s before cooling off for the night. Thursday was largely uneventful, allowing temperatures to rocket up into the mid 90’s. This all lead to a 3-way tie between VW, NWS, and Weatherbug.

Wednesday: Trace of precip in midday drizzle. High 84, Low 67.
Thursday: High 94, Low 71.
Forecast Grade: B

Lawton, Oklahoma to Dayton, Ohio

Today, we undertake a 2-day, 940-mile trip through America’s Heartland. Let’s see what the rest of the workweek has in store for this trip!

Lawton

DAY ONE

It’ll be a quiet start to the day as we head northeast out of Lawton towards Oklahoma City. For most of the morning, it should be mostly sunny with just some high clouds when we make our way past Tulsa. As we make our way past Joplin and towards Springfield, we can expect it to cloud up a little more as a couple of scattered showers/thunderstorms develop along a weak boundary setting up from Kansas to Tennessee. We’ll eventually end our night in St. Louis after dodging a couple showers in the evening, but should be mainly dry.

DAY TWO

A cloudy start is expected to the day as southerly flow continues over the Mid-MS Valley, with perhaps a few isolated showers lingering around from the previous night. Most of the activity from the developing system in the Central US will remain west of St. Louis through mid-day, giving us a bit of a break as we head eastward through southern Illinois and past Indianapolis. Conditions will continue to improve as we push eastward into western Ohio to finish our trip at Dayton!

dayton

Lawton, Oklahoma

Off to Lawton for today’s forecast. The Lawton area tends to see a shorter tornado season than Oklahoma City or Tulsa because they are far enough west that they are too hot or dry for real thunderstorms. What does today entail?

At 253PM, CT, Lawton was reporting a temperature of 84 degrees with mostly cloudy skies. The pattern has been fairly stagnant over the southern Plains, with thunderstorms erupting along the Front Range and drifting east, with a weak boundary struggling to press south through Texas. Tonight, neither feature will impact Lawton.
An area of low pressure in the Pacific Northwest, of all places, will subtly change the dynamic over western Oklahoma and the southern Plains. The axis of thunderstorms that has been over eastern Colorado south into the Texas Panhandle will adjust so as to lie from western Kansas to western Oklahoma in the next two evenings. Tomorrow’s storms will be the strongest as the area of convergence taps into a fresh source of energy for the first time, but there will be weaker showers on Thursday evening with the region already worked over. The thunderstorm activity shouldn’t ruin many plans; the hot weather will likely do a decent enough job of that.
Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, with late storms, High 90, Low 68
Thursday – Sunny with some late rain High 95, Low 71

TWC: Tomorrow Partly Cloudy High 92, Low 68
Thursday – Sunny High 96, Low 70

AW: Tomorrow – Partly sunny (PM Storms) High 92, Low 69
Thursday – Mostly sunny, breezy and hot High 96, Low 72

NWS: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny (Late storms) High 88, Low 68
Thursday – Mostly sunny (Late storms), High 94, Low 72

WB: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy with a chance of thunderstorms High 90, Low 69
Thursday – Mostly sunny High 94, Low 71

Toasty, certainly. I don’t use percentages in my forecasts, but that 20% sort of number sounds pretty good. Here is the current satellie for the region.
Lawton

Ames, Iowa to Lawton, Oklahoma

We are on our way for a simple one day drive. I say simple because the route is easy and the mileage is, like I said, only enough to last us one day. The weather will not be so agreeable. The 664 miles will be covered after nearly 10 hours of driving at a speed of 66.8mph. So let’s see what’s going on down I-35

ames
A system spiraling over Texas is going to lift to the north, bringing some occasionally heavy rain with it. Unless you are driving in it, this rain activity is actually quite welcome for a region stricken by drought for the past couple of years, if not longer. It will be dry south through the state of Iowa, but as we pass into Missouri, we can expect to encounter some rain, that will rapidly become heavy. The heaviest rain will continue through northern Missouri to Kansas City, with moderate showers continuing on to Emporia. After that, the drive through Wichita and Oklahoma City will be overcast, as we project to be camped under an inverted trough the rest of the way to Lawton. Don’t be surprised if we see some spits of light rain the rest of the way, but more than likely, we will be dry when we conclude our trip.
Lawton

Lawton, Oklahoma

The nastiest winter weather this year has steadily developed over the south central US, systems commonly known as “Texas Hookers”. Yeah. So how’s it going in southwest Oklahoma today?

At 525PM, CT, Lawton was reporting a temperature of 48 degrees with cloudy skies and rain. A large, swirling area of low pressure lies centered over south Texas, with a great deal of rain winding through Texas and into Oklahoma. Lawton is on the northern flank of this low, which means an introduction of colder air and stratiform rain, the heaviest of which appeared to be just north of, and well to the west of Lawton.
This area of low pressure will shift northeast, with the back edge of the system being pulled through the state of Oklahoma through the day tomorrow, leading steady rain to become light showers later in the day, eventually ending by afternoon. Another system is going to move into the High Plains by Friday, but the effect this system will have is the reintroduction of southerly flow. This will help stabilize the atmosphere for the day on Friday, and an increasingly robust southwest flow will bring about warmer temperatures.
Tomorrow – Rain early, clearing late in the day. High 57, Low 43
Friday – Mostly sunny, windy, High 69, Low 37

TWC: Tomorrow – Few Showers High 55, Low 42
Friday – Partly Cloudy High 68, Low 39

AW: Tomorrow – A shower in the morning; otherwise, mostly cloudy High 53, Low 42
Friday – Warmer with partial sunshine High 67, Low 37

NWS: Tomorrow – Showers, mainly before noon. High 54, Low 43
Friday – Mostly sunny (wind to 32mph), High 68, Low 38

WB: Tomorrow – Rain showers in the morning…then a slight chance of rain showers in the afternoon High 55, Low 43
Friday – Partly cloudy. Warmer High 67, Low 39

It’s a drizzly, rainy mess today in Lawton, and it looks like another one tomorrow. Seems nice for Friday though!
Lawton

Dodging the bullet

On Sunday, a strong, tornadic thunderstorm exploded along the Texas Panhandle-western Oklahoma border and tracked north–completely avoiding Lawton. The front moved into Lawton overnight, bringing with it a rapid cool down and heavy rain, which meant that it was unable to warm up into the afternoon. Lawton saw over an inch and a half of rain, but because the storms came when they did, there was no severe weather, with only a healthy spring rain (and a little bit more cold air than expected). Temperatures were very cool, and those who went with the GFS paid for it, as it was 12 degrees off on yesterday’s high. This meant that The Weather Channel and Victoria-Weather were the clearly better forecasters, with TWC edging us by a degree.
Sunday – High 75, Low 64
Monday – 1.59″ of rain in thunderstorms, High 69, Low 53

Grade: C