We forecast for Harrisburg at the beginning of the month, and had to watch as the Keystone capital was battered by successive rounds of low pressure centers moving from Texas to New England. One of the heaviest batches if rain came through on Thursday, with nearly 2 inches of accumulation swamping the city. At least it was a work day, right? A good work day to remain indoors, it seems. Forecast.io and The Weather Channel came together to put forth the top forecast. Actuals: Wednesday – High 74, Low 50 Thursday – High 69, Low 54
Lets start the week with a road trip. We’re going to head from southeastern Pennsylvania to the shores of Lake Superior. It will take us two days to cover the 1134 miles between our two cities. Day one will be over after 8 hours at a pace of 67mph. We’ll keep that pace on Day two, but travel a bit longer, after covering 547 miles on Monday, with the rest on Tuesday.
DAY ONE (Monday)
A big trough covering the country is bringing cold air to the country, but is also extremely disturbed. A low in the western Great Lakes will stick a tendril of moisture southeast towards Virginia, with showers — rain, exclusively — falling in the Alleghenies, making our drive difficult right from the start. Lighter sprinkles are going to be possible as we reach the Allegheny Plateau and head into Ohio. Overcast is a certainty throughout the day, but it will probably thin a bit after we pass Sandusky. It’s around there that the drizzle will end, and give us some reprieve as we continue on to Middlebury, Indiana, which is just outside of the Elkhart-Goshen region.
DAY TWO (Tuesday) Not long after we arrive in Middlebury, a strong system will sidle into town, and batter the region with heavy rain and wind. It will taper off by the time we depart on Tuesday morning, with all that nastiness of Monday lifting into Michigan. We’ll traverse Chicago without any precipitation, and head into Wisconsin as clouds start to darken. After we’ve passed Madison, likely in the Wisconsin Dells/Baraboo area, we’ll start to encounter some precipitation, likely to be rain, but potentially mixing with snow. It’s going to be this tightrope that we’ll be watching for the rest of the drive up to Duluth.
Happy Halloween! Let’s head to the capital of the Keystone State to see what they have to fright or delight us with.
At 1256PM, ET, Harrisburg was reporting a temperature of 61 degrees with mostly sunny skies. An area of low pressure in northern Quebec, and a strong jet just to the west of Harrisburg was allowing for a pleasant warm up in eastern Pennsylvania. Both were contributing to some rain in western Pennsylvania, however the emergence of a new feature over Texas will erode the rainy spots, and prevent the line from stretching into Harrisburg. The southern low, organizing at the base of an upper level trough, will intensify and shift swiftly to the northeast tonight, A warm front will pass in the wee hours in Harrisburg tomorrow morning, with a shot at light rain, and more warm air during the day. The central low is forecast to intercept central Pennsylvania directly late tomorrow. Meanwhile, the strong south to north jet is going to continue drifting eastward. A kink in the jet will give rise to a stronger area of development in the Carolinas, and a bona fide Nor’Easter looks n coming late on Friday. Tomorrow – Light rain early, with heavy rain and wind arriving late, High 70, Low 56 Friday – Rain, especially early with another round of rain and wind late, becoming colder, High 66, Low 54
TWC: Tomorrow – Intervals of clouds and sunshine (late rain) High 73, Low 55 Friday – Showers and thunderstorms likely High 69, Low 57
AW: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy; mild (late rain), high 72, Low 54 Friday – Mostly cloudy; a couple of morning showers, then periods of rain High 69, low 58
NWS: Tomorrow – A slight chance of showers before 9am, then a slight chance of rain after 9am. Mostly cloudy, high 70, Low 55 Friday – Showers, with thunderstorms also possible after 3pm High 70, low 57
WB: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with 40% chance of rain, High 70, Low 56 Friday – Showers. High 68, Low 56
WN: Tomorrow – mostly cloudy with scattered showers, High 70, low 55 Friday – Cloudy with light showers, High 70, Low 61
FIO: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy throughout the day. High 73, Low 52 Friday – Rain overnight and in the evening. High 67, Low 58
We have reached the time of year where low temperatures can appear at any time of day, and I really need to dig into the hourly forecasts. Yuck. Here is the rain in western PA, no threat to Harrisburg on this evening.
The Mid-Atlantic (as well as New England) is going to get battered not only with snow, but also with gusty winds and ARctic temperatures. The first round of what will be at least a 2 1/2 week pummeling swept through Harrisburg during the middle of the week, knocking temperatures from the upper 30s in the afternoon yesterday all the way down to 12 at midnight. Forecast.io did a good job with most of their temperature forecasts, but was too cool on their Thursday high, allowing Victoria-Weather to sneak in for the win.
Actuals: Wednesday – Trace of snow, High 36, Low 19
Thursday – Trace of snow, High 38, Low 12
Now for the regularly scheduled post for the day. We’re going on a 2 day trip that will cover 1174 miles. The second day of the journey will be a bit longer, with the first wrapping up after 518.7 miles at a 64.8mph pace. I don’t have a lot else to add in the intro, so let’s take to the road.
DAY ONE (Wednesday)
Generally speaking, we shouldn’t expect any problems through most of the day. There will be some clouds through the Appalachans, as there always are, but flow over northern Ohio is going to be from the south, so we shouldn’t have much to worry about there. A clipper moving through the Great Lakes is going to slow down a bit. We’ll encounter some clouds and maybe a bit of very light sleet upon arriving in northern Indiana, but I think the chances are better that we stay dry. The day will end in Howe, Indiana, which is just south of Sturgis, Michigan.
DAY TWO (Thursday)
The sleet will pick up late in the evening as we recline in Howe, and there could be an inch or so of snow on the ground. It will be like that all the way to about LaPorte, where there could be 2-4″. When we hit the Illinois border, though, all will be clear. Expect clearing skies and gradually warming temperatures, though the blustery winds will continue to about Peru, Illinois. From there through Iowa and back north into Sioux City, we can expect a pretty nice trip. Really though, it’s just Indiana that will give us any problems.
I misread my calendar and though I was simply scheduled for an ordinary post yesterday, but as it turns out I was supposed to issue a forecast for Harrisburg. Fortunately, I’m a meteorologist so I can be wrong blah blah blah.
At 756PM, ET, Harrisburg was reporting clear skies and a temperature of 28 degrees. Clouds abutted the Appalachians, but along the eastern slope, things have cleared out significantly. An area of low pressure off shore was helping induce a brisk northwesterly flow.
The strong off shore system will depart with little disruption to the Harrisburg area. A clipper presently moving through the Great Lakes was once promised to be another round of significant snow for the northeast now looks like a nuisance for Thursday. Just a few flakes will reach the ground in the afternoon. Cold air will rush in behind the system, and winds will be the main story out of this feature.
Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 35, Low 22
Thursday – Light afternoon snow, measuring to less than an inch, wind gusting 20-30mph late, then temperatures plummet, High 37, Low 10
TWC: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 37, Low 16
Thursday – PM Snow showers, High 35, Low 23
AW: Tomorrow – Sun and clouds High 38, Low 24
Thursday – Mostly cloudy with a couple of snow showers High 40, Low 25
NWS: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 34, Low 18
Thursday – A chance of snow showers, mainly after 7am. Mostly cloudy High 34, Low 19
WB: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny. High 34, Low 18
Thursday – Mostly cloudy. A chance of snow showers in the morning High 34, Low 27
WN: Tomorrow – Partly Cloudy High 34, Low 18
Thursday – Windy with Snow Showers Possible High 34, Low 23
FIO: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy throughout the day. High 34, Low 18
Thursday – Flurries starting in the afternoon, continuing until evening, and breezy starting in the evening. High 32, Low 11
There is a lot of bust potential for this temperature forecast on Thursday with just how fast temperatures are going to be dropping. It could be in single digits by the time midnight rolls around. Here is the satellite showing a wisp of clouds over hte Appalachians.
Hey, just a nice, short trip today, heading through Allentown and the greater New York area as we head to New Haven. It’s a hair over 4 hours between the cities in question, covering 258 miles. The average speed for this quick trip will be about 62.5mph, which I guess isn’t too bad, considering we are leaving from the mountains and travelling through a major metro area. The most major of them, actually.
An upper level wave that is interacting with a vort max moving through the Ohio Valley to the mid-Atlantic is moving even quicker than expected, and in fact it’s already over Harrisburg. By the time we leave at 10am tomorrow, it should have already shifted through town. We will get into the back end of the shower activity fairly quickly after we leave Harrisburg, probably by the time we hit Allentown. The rest of the way into New Haven will be afflicted by rain showers. Still, we dodged a bullet by not having to drive through northern New Jersey when the rain is at its heaviest. That would be the worst.
My bad, everyone. I actually forgot to post the forecast for Harrisburg on Halloween. Actually, you know what? Spooky stuff happens on Halloween, so we will say that it simply… Disappeared. Anyways, we were waiting for a cold front to roll through on the night of Halloween, and rain continued into the beginning of November. Victoria-Weather had the top forecast in all the land. This one doesn’t go towards any real scoring, so you can rest comfortably in the knowledge that there was nothing untoward in the forecasts’ disappearance. Or not. Spoooky
Actuals: Friday – .44 inches of rain, High 72, Low 46
Saturday – High 65, Low 46
It’s Halloween, and I would like to wish you and yours a safe trick or treat experience. Nothing too spooky, I hope.
At 1215PM, ET, Harrisburg was reporting a temperature of 59 degrees with fog and overcast skies. We continue to see an upper level ridge across the Eastern Seaboard, however an easterly flow off the Atlantic has hemmed low level moisture up against the Appalachians, bringing about the fog and low clouds. The back edge of the ridge is over the mid-Mississippi Valley, and is moving swiftly east. A consequence of this jet action is a developing area of low pressure and a strong cold front moving into the Appalachians. Rain will move into Harrisburg by this evening as the low slides northeast from the Lower Ohio Valley into the Great Lakes.
Heavy rain will arrive overnight tonight, and 1-3″ of rain will fall through noon tomorrow. The front will shift out of town by the early afternoon, and temperatures should have a chance to plummet overnight Friday night into Saturday. A dry slot will move into the Appalachians, and a vigorous inverted trough through the eastern Great Lakes will be unable to reach Harrisburg on Saturday, leading to a cool, dry beginning to the weekend.
Tomorrow – Rain, especially early, High 74, Low 51
Saturday – Mostly cloudy, High 62, Low 46
TWC: Tomorrow – AM Showers / Wind High 72, Low 53
Saturday – Mostly Cloudy High 61, Low 46
AW: Tomorrow – A morning shower in the area; otherwise, clouds giving way to some sun, windy and warm High 72, Low 52
Saturday – Cooler with times of clouds and sun; a shower in the area in the afternoon High 61, Low 45
NWS: Tomorrow -Showers and thunderstorms before 1pm, then a slight chance of showers between 1pm and 3pm. Some of the storms could produce gusty winds. High 69, Low 55
Saturday – Partly sunny, High 60, Low 47
WB: Tomorrow – Showers with a chance of thunderstorms in the morning. Some thunderstorms may produce gusty winds in the morning High 69, Low 54
Saturday – Partly sunny. High 60, Low 47
You know, it’s unfortunate that the temperatures are dropping like they are, but 60 degrees in November is still pretty good. Satellite paints a pretty cloudy picture.