This time last week, we were putting together a forecast for Harrisburg, and it was looking sloppy. Unfortunately, forecasts bore out, with about half an inch of rain wetting the Keystone capital, and most of it came on Saturday, of course. If there was any silver lining, it is that residents probably knew it was coming, given the decent forecast they were given. Probably not exactly the news they were looking for, though. The Weather Channel was the issuer of the best forecast. Actuals: Saturday, .45″ of rain, High 60, Low 51 Sunday, .07″ of rain, High 55, Low 49
It’s Friday, at least. Will it be a good weekend at the Pennsylvania Capitol?
At 556PM ET, Harrisburg was reporting a temperature of 65 degrees with overcast skies. A sharp upper level trough in the Plains was producing another severe outbreak in the Mid South, with a truncated rain shield following a warm front to western Pennsylvania. More entrenched is a ridge on the East Coast, pushing the mid and upper 60s to near the New York border. The upper level pattern will be slow to move, but at the surface, the instability will attempt to continue northeastward. Redevelopment will occur in the southern Plains, and showers moving to central Pennsylvania will lose potency, and severe weather is not anticipated. The entire system will inch further east through Sunday. Tapping into the Gulfstream moisture will make for a bit more rain than Saturday will provide. Rain may not clear out on Sunday, slowing the cool down. Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with scattered showers, High 58, Low 49 Sunday – Some heavier showers, lighter late, High 56, Low 47
TWC: Tomorrow – Cloudy with a few showers. High 60, Low 52 Sunday – Overcast with rain showers at times. Thunder possible. High 55, Low 46
AW: Tomorrow – Cloudy with a little rain High 62, Low 53 Sunday – Cloudy with occasional rain and a thunderstorm High 60, Low 45
NWS: Tomorrow – Rain likely, mainly after 4pm. Cloudy, High 63, Low 54 Sunday – Rain High 60, Low 44
WB: Tomorrow – Rain likely. High 59, Low 54 Sunday – Rain. High 55, Low 44
WN: Tomorrow – Cloudy with light rain likely, High 62, Low 53 Sunday – Cloudy with light rain, High 58, Low 45
CLI: Tomorrow – Light rain showers, High 61, Low 51 Sunday – Light Rain Showers, High 60, Low 45
There isn’t going to be a heavy cold pool to clear the murk out of Harrisburg, despite how strong the jet streak overhead is. That jet trough just won’t get moving through town this weekend, though it does lead to a pretty dreary weekend. Look how close the rain is to town, and it isn’t even moving in until tomorrow!
What are you doing this week? How about a 5 day trip to the West Coast? The drive covers 2,760 miles, which will lend itself to a pace of 67mph, and about 539 miles a day. I-40 is calling your name!
DAY ONE (Monday)
Harrisburg, Pennsylvania
The first day of our journey offers good omens. Sunny skies and above average temperatures await Monday in the Ohio Valley. There will be a bit of a northwest flow off the Lakes but it won’t be cold enough for a good Lake effect fetch. Just enjoy the scenery, and end the day in Indianapolis. Wow, even starting the trip with a stop in a real city with hotels and stuff! This trip is going to be great!
DAY TWO (Tuesday)e As we enjoy the Circle City, a weak boundary, associated with a system moving through Canada, will slide through town, bringing a little sprinkle as we sleep. High pressure and more warm air will be in hot pursuit. It sounds exciting, but in effect, this just means we have more sunshine as we drive to Loma Linda, Missouri, just before the Oklahoma line.
DAY THREE (Wednesday) Flow in the Southern Plains will be a bit more turbulent on Wednesday, but only aloft. More clouds can be anticipated, but we will steer clear of any showers. That stuff will happen over central Oklahoma, long after we are through. The day in Glenrio, Texas, which is on the line with New Mexico.
DAY FOUR (Thursday) We are more than halfway through the week, and more than halfway through the drive. Our second to last day will again be marked by blue skies and comfortable temperatures. We get another good sized town in Flagstaff for our destination (as opposed to a border town)
DAY FIVE (Friday) Models are picking up on a rogue feature in the Pacific that, if realized, might bring some low clouds and drizzle to Point Concepcion. The drive from Flagstaff to the Coastal Range before that will be terrific, like the rest of the drive. Rain won’t last long or be likely, frankly, but prepare for fog and low clouds if that low is hanging offshore.
