Tag Archives: Elmira

Futile Forecast

The forecast for Elmira seemed simple enough, just some light snow on Wednesday and dry for Thursday with temperatures fairly stable. However, temperatures were higher than expected for Thursday and Wednesday night as well, causing forecasts to accrue a number of error points. AW was so far off we couldn’t even calculate it! (kidding, most likely a copying error). But anyways, Weather Channel walked on home with an east victory

Wednesday: Light midday snow. High 37, Low 30.
Thursday: High 39, Low 23.
Forecast Grade: B-F

Elmira, New York to Jackson, Mississippi

This is quite excellent timing. If we had tried this over the weekend, I’m not sure we would have made it more than a couple hours out of Elmira. If I-81 isn’t clear, we still might have some issues. I think it will be ok, though. This will be a two day trek covering 1190 miles. As always, day one will be the long day, covering 535 miles at a blistering pace of 66.9mph. Shall we be on our way, then?

DAY ONE (Thursday)
Elmira
There is a clipper sliding through the Great Lakes. It’s a generally low level feature, and as such, is not expected to be able to hoist any moisture over the Appalachians. We will be riding the edge of the mountains, sliding along the lee of the range through Pennsylvania and the part of West Virginia that saw the most snow. There won’t be any fresh snow while we are driving, so we will bypass the area pretty quickly. Virginia should be plowed out by now, and we will continue to the southwest corner of the state, calling it a day in Rural Retreat.

DAY TWO (Friday)
Overnight, a little bit of moisture might find its way into far southwest Virginia and the Tri Cities of eastern Tennessee, with a few sprinkles possible for the first half hour of the drive on Friday. Don’t worry too much about it. Even if it falls as snow, the pavement will be warm enough that it won’t stick. The drive will be pleasant all the way through the southeast to Jackson. And then the weather in Jackson? Immaculate.
Jackson

Elmira, New York

Hey everyone. Elmira saw none of the snow from the last blizzard that afflicted the mid-Atlantic. That is a tight gradient that Elmira doesn’t usually end up on the favorable side of. Will fortune continue to be in their favor this week?

At 1053PM, ET, Elmira was reporting a temperature of 40 degrees with a brisk west wind and overcast skies. The sharp upper level trough that originally parented the major winter storm of the weekend continues to lie over eastern North America, though it is reorienting in such a manner that it will soon become a progressive feature. The exit flow is split, and there is an inland streak at the north end. As a result, there is an upper level band of clouds with light precipitation found on satellite stretching through New England and the Appalachians.
There is a broader, lower amplitude wave in the Great Lakes that will help usher things along in New York. The westerly flow will taper, and the post frontal moisture, as well as any lake effect snow will dry up early in the day tomorrow. The next round of precipitation will be a Clipper moving through the Great Lakes, but with a strong jet remaining over the Gulf and Gulf Stream, this feature is not epected to carry any mosture over the Catskills into Elmira, but it should begin to import some warmer air.
Tomorrow – Clearing, but cooler post frontally – High 37, Low 24
Thursday – Mostly sunny, High 37, Low 24

TWC: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy skies during the morning hours will become overcast in the afternoon. A few flurries or snow showers possible, High 37, Low 26
Thursday – Cloudy. A few flurries or snnow showers possible, High 36, Low 23

AW: Tomorrow – A morning flurry; otherwise, cloudy, breezy and colder High
Thursday – Breezy with periods of clouds and sun; a flurry in the afternoon High 37, Low 20

NWS: Tomorrow – A chance of snow showers, mainly between 10am and 3pm. Mostly cloudy, High 36, Low 24
Thursday – A slight chance of snow showers after 1pm. Partly sunny, High 36. Low 19

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with a 30 percent chance of snow showers, High 36, Low 23
Thursday – Partly sunny in the morning, then becoming mostly cloudy, High 36, Low 19

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly Cloudy with Slight Chance of Light Snow Showers High 32, Low 23
Thursday – Partly Cloudy with Slight Chance of Light Snow Showers High 34, Low 27

FIO: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy until evening.High 34, Low 24
Thursday – Foggy in the morning.High 33, Low 20

Here is the satellite image, showing off that band of clouds precip across New England. All temperatures tomorrow are non-standard. Interesting how precip-heavy weveryone is.
elmira

Elmira, New York to College Station, Texas

We’re off to the Lone Star State on a 3 day journey from western New York. The trip is a 1613 mile journey which will lend us to a 62.8mph pace. The first two days will be a hair shorter, with a goal of 502.6 miles travelled on those first two days. Let’s get grinding.

DAY ONE (Friday)
Elmira

High pressure has settled in over the eastern Great Lakes, and as well as the Finger Lakes, which are great in their own righ. The beginning of the day tomorrow will be dry, as will most of the middle. The trek through northeastern Ohio portends to be just as wonderful. There is a surface wave slowly moving through the mid-Mississippi valley, and there is a chance that between Columbus and Jeffersonville, our destination for Friday night, we will encounter some late rain showers.

DAY TWO (Saturday)
The drive on Saturday will be significantly less pleasant. The surface feature moving through the mid-Mississippi Valley will now be moving through the Ohio Valley, and the typically juicy summer air in the southeastern US will mean a nearly persistent threat for showers and thunderstorms. I tend to favor the guidance that suggests better organization for the activity this weekend, which will ultimately mean a better potential for a stray squall rather than simple air mass convection. It also suggests a bit of a break in the action around Nashville, which I’m not entirely sold on. We will stop in Stanton, which is about 2/3 of the way from Nashville to Memphis.

DAY THREE (Sunday)
Daily instability and the periphery of a surface ridge will lead to a few showers through the remainder of our drive in Tennessee, as well as most of the trek through Arkansas. Instead of fairly heavy rain with an embedded thunderstorm like we will see on Saturday, Sunday’s action is more likely to be scattered showers, particularly in Arkansas. Before we reach Texarkana, all that rain will wrap up. It’s going to be hot and humid but ultimately rain free as we move through eastern Texas
College Station

Springfield, Massachusetts to Elmira, New York

We have another brief trip on the open road today, but today, we will be on the opposite end of the country from our last trek. It’s also about half the distance between Springfield as it is from Bakersfield to Flagstaff, as we will take 4 hours to cover 278 miles at a pace of about 63.2mph. Shall we be on our way?


Springfield-Massachusetts
An upper level trough moving through the area (and that’s important… it’s been a long time since anything startd moving around there) will be the trigger for a few light showers in the Berkshires of western Massachussetts. As we pass south of Pittsfield, we might see a little bit of rain, and will almost certainly have a cloudy drive, but that will last only as far as te Hudson Gorge, and from Albany to Elmira, the sun will be shining, and we shouldn’t have a problem.
Elmira

Rainy days and Mondays

It was a little bit dank and depressing in Elmira the past several days. A lower level system set up over the eastern Great Lakes and brought a steady rain, and an even more strident cloud deck. Temperatures were cooler than expected, but warmer over night because of the clouds. Victoria-Weather and The Weather Channel tied for the top spot.
Actuals: Monday – .2 inches of rain, High 59, Low 48
Tuesday – .49 inches of rain, High 64, Low 53

Grade: C

Elmira, New York

Off to western New York for this overnight forecast. Is it going to be good weather for the second week of May? No? What can we expect?

At 1253AM, ET, Elmira was reporting a temperature of 48 degrees with clear skies. A dew point near 40 coupled with those clear skies suggests a threat for fog overnight tonight into tomorrow morning. An upper level trough in the central Plains is generating quite a bit of unsettled weather in the Great Lakes. A fairly strong upper level ridge lies over the mid-Atlantic as well, however the persistence of the trough west of town has established something of a dry line through northern Pennsylvania.
The upper level trough will do little by way of movement, however the ridge will push further north, meaning warmer conditions, and the introduction of more moisture, and a messier surface state. Showers and storms will crop up through the day on Monday. Guidance suggests enhancement of a low level trough over the eastern Great Lakes, artificially propogating a surface cold front. In plain English, that means showers and thunderstorms will become much more well organized, perhaps even severe, through the day Tuesday.
Tomorrow – Scattered showers and storms, High 66, Low 44
Tuesday – Showers and thunderstorms, possibly severe late, High 68, Low 53

TWC: Tomorrow – Showers High 66, Low 46
Tuesday – Rain / Thunder High 70, Low 53

AW: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with a couple of showers High 68, Low 41
Tuesday – Periods of rain High 69, Low 53

NWS: Tomorrow – Showers likely, mainly after noon. Cloudy High 65, Low 42
Tuesday – Showers and possibly a thunderstorm High 68, Low 52

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy. Showers likely…mainly in the afternoon High 65, Low 43
Tuesday – Showers with a chance of thunderstorms. high 68, Low 51

So, the answer is “no” when asking whether or not the weather looked good for Elmira this week. Here is the satellite, showing the cloudy mess as it sits presently over the western Great Lakes.

Heat wave!

Well this was embarrassing. Great for Elmira, but not so good for the forecasters. Everyone was thinking that the temperatures would be in mid 50s on Sunday, but as luck would have it, gusty south winds and a strong boundary to the north allowed temperatures to climb into the 60s. Temperature forecast errors were compounded, as the temperatures didn’t cool off very much that night either. The Weather Channel had the top forecast, though it wasn’t very good. The better news is that everyone else tied at the bottom.
Actuals: Sunday – Rain reported but not measured, High 66, Low 41
Monday – High 44, Low 25

Grade: D

Elmira, New York

Yes, we still do forecasts here at this site.

At 1153AM, ET, Elmira was reporting a temperature of 53 degres with sunny skies and a somewhat vigorous southwest breeze. Two strong ridges lie over north America, with one over western Canada, and the other just now exiting the east coast. This, more than anything, is the cause of the breezy conditions, as Elmira is at the greatest gradient on the west side of the eastern ridge.
The general pattern is a broad upper level trough, with the surface trough reflected along the jet. Rather than broad scale synoptic scale systems, impulses along the jet are being reflected as surface lows, such as what is moving through the Upper Midwest. The mean trough will try to shift east, and be decoupled over western New York. High pressure will build tomorrow after one of the impulses moves through around mid-day, but late in the day Monday, the jet will initiate development over the Appalachians, and some rain will filter it’s way into Elmira before midnight.
Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with early AM showers, High 55, Low 33
Monday – Increasing clouds with late showers, High 46, Low 29

TWC: Tomorrow – Cloudy with a few showers High 58, Low 39
Monday – Times of sun and clouds High 44, Low 35

AW: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy, breezy and mild; a passing afternoon shower High 53, Low 34
Monday – Rather cloudy with a shower around after temperatures rise above freezing (evening showers) High 46, Low 28

NWS: Tomorrow – A chance of showers, mainly after 1pm. Mostly cloudy, High 57, Low 34
Monday – A slight chance of rain and snow showers before 10am, then a chance of rain showers. Cloudy, High 44, Low 34

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy. A chance of rain showers in the afternoon High 57, Low 34
Monday – Mostly cloudy with a 30 percent chance of rain shower High 44, Low 34

A look at the national satellite gives you a pretty good idea where the jet is right now.

7 inches in Elmira

The Presidents Day blizzard didn’t just stop in the Upper Midwest, but it brought a little bit more snow to western New York and our forecast site of Elmira than I had originally thought. As you can see, the city saw 7 inches of snow for the event, and I had called for 3-6″. Weatherbug was the only site that had a storm total, and they said 4-8″. If it was just a snow forecast, that would have been fine, but their temperature forecast was not so good. Accuweather came through with a top forecast for temperatures, and were able to correctly forecast that there was no snow to be had on Tuesday. Well played, Accuweather.
Actuals: Monday – snow (7 inches for the duration of the event), High 26, Low 10
Tuesday – High 21, Low 0

Grade: B