Heat wave!
Posted by Ryan
Well this was embarrassing. Great for Elmira, but not so good for the forecasters. Everyone was thinking that the temperatures would be in mid 50s on Sunday, but as luck would have it, gusty south winds and a strong boundary to the north allowed temperatures to climb into the 60s. Temperature forecast errors were compounded, as the temperatures didn't cool off very much that night either. The Weather Channel had the top forecast, though it wasn't very good. The better news is that everyone else tied at the bottom.
Actuals: Sunday - Rain reported but not measured, High 66, Low 41
Monday - High 44, Low 25
Grade: D
Elmira, New York
Posted by Ryan
Yes, we still do forecasts here at this site.
At 1153AM, ET, Elmira was reporting a temperature of 53 degres with sunny skies and a somewhat vigorous southwest breeze. Two strong ridges lie over north America, with one over western Canada, and the other just now exiting the east coast. This, more than anything, is the cause of the breezy conditions, as Elmira is at the greatest gradient on the west side of the eastern ridge.
The general pattern is a broad upper level trough, with the surface trough reflected along the jet. Rather than broad scale synoptic scale systems, impulses along the jet are being reflected as surface lows, such as what is moving through the Upper Midwest. The mean trough will try to shift east, and be decoupled over western New York. High pressure will build tomorrow after one of the impulses moves through around mid-day, but late in the day Monday, the jet will initiate development over the Appalachians, and some rain will filter it's way into Elmira before midnight.
Tomorrow - Mostly cloudy with early AM showers, High 55, Low 33
Monday - Increasing clouds with late showers, High 46, Low 29
TWC: Tomorrow - Cloudy with a few showers High 58, Low 39
Monday - Times of sun and clouds High 44, Low 35
AW: Tomorrow - Mostly cloudy, breezy and mild; a passing afternoon shower High 53, Low 34
Monday - Rather cloudy with a shower around after temperatures rise above freezing (evening showers) High 46, Low 28
NWS: Tomorrow - A chance of showers, mainly after 1pm. Mostly cloudy, High 57, Low 34
Monday - A slight chance of rain and snow showers before 10am, then a chance of rain showers. Cloudy, High 44, Low 34
WB: Tomorrow - Mostly cloudy. A chance of rain showers in the afternoon High 57, Low 34
Monday - Mostly cloudy with a 30 percent chance of rain shower High 44, Low 34
A look at the national satellite gives you a pretty good idea where the jet is right now.
7 inches in Elmira
Posted by Ryan
The Presidents Day blizzard didn't just stop in the Upper Midwest, but it brought a little bit more snow to western New York and our forecast site of Elmira than I had originally thought. As you can see, the city saw 7 inches of snow for the event, and I had called for 3-6". Weatherbug was the only site that had a storm total, and they said 4-8". If it was just a snow forecast, that would have been fine, but their temperature forecast was not so good. Accuweather came through with a top forecast for temperatures, and were able to correctly forecast that there was no snow to be had on Tuesday. Well played, Accuweather.
Actuals: Monday - snow (7 inches for the duration of the event), High 26, Low 10
Tuesday - High 21, Low 0
Grade: B
Elmira, NY to Pittsburgh, PA
Posted by Anthony
More of a day trip than a road trip, only 271 miles separate these 2 Northeastern cities. It will be a scenic trip, but will Mother Nature allow the sun to shine through? Let's take a gander!
We start off the day heading southward into Central PA with just some high overcast clouds. Overnight tonight into Tuesday morning, a swath of heavy snow will shift out of Central and Southern PA off towards the east, part of the same system that's dumped impressive snow totals over the Northern Plains. Clouds will thicken for us the further we venture into Central PA, however most of the snowfall should be absent with our system's departure. A few flurries are never out of the equation as long as it stays overcast, but hopefully the roads will have been plowed and cleared for our driving ease. As we turn westward from Altoona to Pittsburgh, low overcast clouds will persist though the day, but outside of a few spotty flurries, we shouldn't have any significant troubles for the remainder of our trip.
Elmira, New York
Posted by Ryan
There is a pretty solid snow storm roaring through the Upper Midwest right now. What will it bring to western New York?
At 1253PM, ET, Elmira was reporting a temperature of 24 degrees with clear skies. A massive winter storm has developed over the northern tier, with heavy snow falling from Detroit to the Twin Cities and west into Wyoming. Ice and rain were found to the south, and in anticipation of this storm's arrival, the Weather Service has issued a winter weather advisory.
An impressive ridge of Canadian high pressure is parked over eastern Canada is preventing moisture and the system from rising north as most systems in this type of pattern are wont to do, and the wintry precipitation is forecast to stream into Elmira tomorrow. The high pressure is actually going to sink south, and the wave fostering this low at the upper levels will flatten. Expect an initial burst of a heavy wintry mix tomorrow with rain, snow and some ice possible, before it turns to all snow. With the cold air chasing the system south, things should wrap up before midnight, leaving Tuesday to cold sunshine.
Tomorrow - Snow likely especially in the morning, High 25, Low 12
Tuesday - Sunny and colder at night, High 24, Low 5
TWC: Tomorrow - A wintry mix in the morning will taper to a few snow showers in the afternoon. High 25, Low 12
Tuesday - Partly cloudy (early AM flurries). High 21, Low 4
AW: Tomorrow - Snow of varying rates in the morning, accumulating an additional 1-2 inches; considerable clouds High 29, Low 11
Tuesday - Mostly sunny High 20, Low 1
NWS: Tomorrow - Snow, mainly before noon High 31, low 14
Tuesday - A chance of snow showers. Mostly sunny High 23, Low 7
WB: Tomorrow - Mostly cloudy. Snow and freezing rain in the morning. Total snow accumulation of 4 to 8 inches. High 32, low 16
Tuesday - Mostly sunny with a 30 percent chance of snow showers. high 23, Low 8
Snowy, to be sure in Elmira. I for one am going to call for 3-6" through the entire event, hedging closer to 3. A look at the satellite indicates exactly how vast the snow field is.
The power or persistent snow
Posted by Ryan
Elmira was lucky enough to avoid the massive snow totals, like we saw in Connecticut, but the persistence of about 48 hours of off and on snow ended up meaning a whopping total of around 5 inches of fluff in the Elmira area. Ok, so whopping isn't the BEST term for it, but it happened, you know? It's a lot for the system that never really even hit Elmira full on. Everyone had snow in the forecast, but the Weather Service had the top temperature forecast.
Actuals: Tuesday - .12 inches of liquid, High 27, Low 19
Wednesday - .04 inches of liquid, High 24, Low 17
Grade: C
Elmira, New York to Sherman, Texas
Posted by Ryan
After a week without road trips, we're going to take our first of 2011, from western New York to far northern Texas. It's a 3 day jaunt down south, and it will cover 1431 miles. This is enough to put us on a pace of 62.6mph, and out first day will cover about 501 miles on the first two days. Shall we?
DAY ONE
It's going to be pretty snowy over the next 48 hours across moist of our day one route, but the heaviest snow will be falling during the day today, and then overnight tonight and will be wrapping up from western New York to Ohio tomorrow with a combination of inverted troughing and some lake effect bands. The heaviest snow will come between Erie, Pennsylvania and Cleveland, but flurries will be omnipresent for this little journey, which will take us to Huber Heights, Ohio, which is a north suburb of Dayton.
DAY TWO
Lingering overcast skies will have a chance of producing a few flurries as we finish the drive through Ohio and most of the way through Indiana, with the skies clearing out and a drive through high pressure greeting us after about Greencastle, Indiana, between Terre Haute and Indianapolis. This pleasant weather will serve us well as we trek through the urban jungle of Saint Louis and continue on to Buckthorn, Missouri, which is smack dab in the middle of the state.
DAY THREE
Our drive Friday will be the best one. The only way we will have to turn on the wipers is if we get bird poop on the windshield, as we will spend our day driving in mostly sunny skies through rural Oklahoma. Temperatures in Sherman will even begin to warm up as we arrivei n the late afternoon, which will make this seem a little bit more like a vacation.
Elmira, New York
Posted by Ryan
We're getting out of the southeast, and, ironically, the place where all the snow is falling and headed to western New York.
At 153PM, ET, Elmira was reporting a temperature of 28 degrees with mostly cloudy skies. Bands of lake effect snow stretched from Syracuse to Binghamton, but the prevailing flow looked to keep snow north of Elmira. Weak high pressure coupled with the still lingering area of low pressure that brought some snow to New England last week.
As is usual, the northeast will have to keep an eye on the low centered over the Northeast, given their propensity for following the Gulf Stream. The storm is losing some of it's jet support, but recent model trends indicate it will have some for a bit longer than originally forecast. This support will guide the storm further west than had been thought yesterday, headed towards the major cities on the Eastern Seaboard. A strong jet trough will do it's art to generate a broad area of low pressure which will absorb the smaller, stronger low over the Mid Atlantic. The broader low, using some of the leftover energy from the stronger system will pivot around each other and influence areas further inland than most nor'easters do, including bringing snow to the Elmira area starting tomorrow evening, then lasting through the day Tuesday. Total snowfall will be less than they typically see, as most of the heavy moisture will come from the Atlantic rather than the Great Lakes, and will subsequently be cut off by the Appalachians.
Tomorrow - Increasing clouds, with some snow late, High 26, Low 9
Wednesday - Persistent light snow through the day (Total accumulations 2-5"), High 27, Low 17
TWC: Tomorrow - Cloudy skies early. A few snow showers developing later in the day High 29, Low 14
Wednesday - Periods of snow High 25, Low 22
AW: Tomorrow - Some sunshine giving way to clouds (snow late, 2'4" overnight) High 26, Low 12
Wednesday - Cloudy and windy with snow showers, accumulating up to an additional inch High 28, Low 18
NWS: Tomorrow - .Partly sunny in the morning...then mostly cloudy with snow likely in the afternoon High 25, Low 10
Wednesday - Snow showers. Additional light snow accumulation High 25, Low 17
WB: Tomorrow - Partly sunny in the morning...then mostly cloudy with snow likely in the afternoon. Little or no snow accumulation High 25, Low 11
Wednesday - Snow showers. Additional light snow accumulation. High 26, Low 20
Got some issues with the Weather Service page today, and it isn't giving the point forecast like usual. Pretty wide variety of snow totals in the forecast as well, so that's interesting. It's not often that I'm at the high end. Satellite shows the Lake Effect snows coming off of Lake Ontario into New York.
Problems with the low
Posted by Ryan
Elmira was a tricky forecast for a few people. There was a thunderstorm in town on Tuesday, and some spotty showers on Wednesday, but the real issue for the Weather Service and Weatherbug were lows. Tuesday, temperatures stayed warmer overnight than expected, while the opposite situation came to be on Wednesday. Actually, the lows were only different by 4 degrees, but the forecast lows from the NWS and Weatherbug were different by 15 degrees. Victoria Weather, with our more baseline forecast had the top spot in Elmira.
Actuals: Tuesday - .19 inches of rain in a thunderstorm, High 79, Low 60
Wednesday - .03 inches of rain, High 87, Low 64
Grade: B
Elmira, New York
Posted by Ryan
Our forecast today will be from Western New York, and what is becoming a recent favorite, Elmira. How will it go? Let's find out.
At 1153AM, ET, Elmira was reporting a temperature of 77 degrees with clear skies. There were a few lingering clouds leftover from the early morning in the valleys to the east, but generally the state of New York was quiet. Overall, flow aloft was rather dormant as well, however with summer time heating in full affect, even the slightest ripple will be cause for thunderstorm concern.
One such lower level disturbance will shoot from the Upper Midwest through the Great Lakes and into western New York by tomorrow evening. A few afternoon and evening thunderstorms are certainly a possibility, however after this little bundle of energy arrives in town, it will languish without any upper level support, meaning Wednesday will be mostly cloudy with some drizzle in the area, however a developing system to the west will generate a substantial southerly flow, bringing with it some hot weather.
Tomorrow - Evening thunderstorms, High 82, Low 55
Wednesday - Mostly cloudy, with showers around, High 85, Low 63
TWC: Tomorrow - Partly to mostly cloudy with scattered showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. A few storms may be severe High 83, Low 57
Wednesday - Scattered thunderstorms High 85, Low 66
AW: Tomorrow - Times of clouds and sun with a shower or thunderstorm around in the afternoon high 86, Low 50
Wednesday - Showers and a heavier t-storm; mostly cloudy and humid with the temperature near the record of 93 High 91, Low 63
NWS: Tomorrow - Scattered showers and thunderstorms after 3pm. Mostly cloudy High 85, Low 54
Wednesday - Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy High 84, Low 69
WB: Tomorrow - Partly sunny in the morning...then mostly cloudy with scattered showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon High 86, Low 55
Wednesday - Mostly cloudy in the morning...then becoming partly sunny. Scattered showers and thunderstorms High 85, Low 70
It will certainly be interesting to see what happens on Wednesday. The model outputs are saying 90, which is what Accuweather (even MORE hurricanes!) is buying, but all the auxiliary data says that there isn't a chance in heck they get quite that warm. We shall see. Below is a satellite littered with popcorn cumulus clouds.
