Elkhart makes observations through about 9pm most days after starting around 6 or 7AM, and the past few days were no exception. Usually, on the standard days, this is just fine. Daily highs are in the afternoon, and lows occur just before sunrise. I can use that for verifications and will feel pretty comfortable. Unfortunately, yesterday in Elkhart was not a standard day, estimating by observations which ran midnight-midnight at nearby Goshen which featured a midnight low. Unable to verify, officially, the highs and lows in Elkhart, we can’t call this an official forecast verification. I can tell you, though, that it was fairly chilly across the Great Lakes, and there was snow reported at Goshen AFTER Elkhart was done reporting for the night, which leads to a busted forecast for Victoria-Weather. And yes, we are now fully in lake effect snow season, which stinks pretty bad. No verification, but 5/6 forecasters had the correct snow forecast (probably) and we all successfully foresaw unusually cold temperatures.
I’m back! It appears the seasons have changed just a bit since we last met.
At 942PM, ET, Elkhart was reporting a temperature of 35 degrees with overcast skies. An area of low pressure over Canada extended a dome of overcast conditions west over the Great Lakes, including across northern Indiana, and the moisture within the clouds has led to some light rain as near as Fort Wayne, however the primary impact is gusty west-northwest winds, presently hitting 15kt in Elkhart.
The associated area of low pressure will continue to shove northeast as unseasonably cold high pressure builds into the region. The same west-northwesterly flow pattern is expected to continue within this pressure ridge, which will be conducive for continued clouds across the region, and may save Elkhart from extra chilly conditions overnight.
Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy, High 34, Low 27
Thursday – Cloudy, High 32, Low 22
TWC: Tomorrow – AM Clouds / PM Sun High 34, Low 31
Thursday – AM Snow Showers (1-3″) High 32, Low 27
AW: Tomorrow – Breezy and colder with variable clouds High 35, low 28
Thursday – Considerable cloudiness with a couple of snow showers; cold High 33, Low 24
NWS: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy High 34, Low 29
Thursday – A chance of flurries before 8am, then a chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, High 32, Low 24
WB: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy in the morning then becoming partly cloudy. High 35, Low 28
Thursday – Cloudy with a 50 percent chance of snow showers. High 32, Low 25
WN: Tomorrow – Mostly Cloudy High 34, Low 30
Thursday – Mostly Cloudy with Chance of Snow Showers High 32, Low 25
If there is any snow on Thursday, which it appears many people believe there will be, it will be Lake Effect. I am not so sure. I think the flow is too westerly to get to Elkhart. Current satellite shows that there may be a little bit of clearing tonight in the region. A very little bit.
We are on our way from central Minnesota to northern Indiana, which is a drive that can be completed in one long day. This trip will cover about 584 miles, and will be done at a pace of about 62.9mph, which will undoubtedly be slowed down by traffic in the Twin Cities and Chicago. Let’s hit the road, jack.
It’s pretty much just lee troughing that’s the name of the game right now, and there is going to be a standing trough from the Dakotas to western Kansas through the end of the week. Ahead of this area of low pressure a stout southerly flow will carry some showers and thunderstorms south to north through the Upper Midwest. There may be some rain and embedded thunderstorms as we move through the Twin Cities, but the rain threat will be winding down as we head southeast of Eau Claire, Wisconsin. By that point, I think there will be too much stability to extract any thunderstorms in southern Wisconsin or northern Illinois, although I think that may possible in the evening, after we have arrived in Elkhart. Elkhart looks like a fairly pleasant, if warm, place to be tomorrow evening.
So, today’s road trip is… hardly a road trip. Some people might consider it a commute at only 101 miles. If it takes more than 2 hours, clearly you took a wrong turn somewhere!
At only 100 miles or so, we shouldn’t have to worry about a wide variety of weather during our trip. In this case, we don’t really have to worry about ANY weather. High pressure is sitting over the region and mostly clear skies are expected throughout the day. That’s all i gotta say about that. So, how about that BCS Title game tonight!? Yeah, that was about as boring as this road trip is going to be.
I remember forecasts for Columbus, Indiana that had to be scrapped because they don’t take observations overnight. Turns out, the same situation is seen in Elkhart. What is Indiana’s issue with automatic sensors? If a sight is manually observed, why not the someone to work nights? Why only observe during the day when there are so many options and reasons to observe overnight as well? Does it have to do with an aversion to technology (automatic sensors)? Or is it simply a fear of being alone at an airport at night? I assume since there is the aversion to technology, the floodlight at the airport would be turned off at night, making it really dark and creepy. IF you are still with me, these are the numbers from the day. Well, when it wasn’t scary and dark.
Actuals: Thursday – High 78, Low 66
Friday – High 86, Low 62
Ah, northern Indiana, a generally nondescript area if ever there was one.
At 1255PM, ET, Elkhart was reporting a temperature of 81 degrees with clear skies. A generally weak surface pattern dominated the the country, odd as it sounds, with a weak low over Ontario providing a bit of a potentially unstable conditions over the Great Lakes this evening.
An open Gulf will lead to the center of the country being dominated by showers and thunderstorms through the the afternoon. There is a system expected to develop off shore in the Carolinas that will aid in the surface flow over the southeast, and a bit of cooling caused by the Great Lakes will help stabilize northern Indiana, so the wet weather to end the week should stay south of Elkhart
Tomorrow – Sunny, High 83, Low 61
Friday – Partly cloudy, High 84, Low 59
TWC: Tomorrow – Sunshine and clouds mixed High 84, Low 63
Friday – Times of sun and clouds. High 84, Low 61
AW: Tomorrow – Partial sunshine High 82, Low 61
Friday – Partly sunny High 82, Low 61
NWS: Tomorrow- Mostly sunny High 80, Low 62
Friday – Mostly sunny, High 83, Low 58
WB: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny High 80, Low 63
Friday – Mostly sunny High 83, Low 59
Our first trip on the new version of the site takes us from Memphis to northern Indiana on a trip that will take us nearly 10 hours. Not a terrible day, but longer than we are used to. It’s a 611 mile trip that will see us travel at a rate of almost 62mph, slowed down by the intricate interstate systems of Memphis and Chicago. It’s going to be a soggy trip, so lets change those windshield wipers and be on our way.
It will have been miserable in Memphis for about 48 hours by the time we leave, so why should we expect anything different? A whirling mass of rain and clouds over the center of the country isn’t going anywhere. The most recent round will feature a stronger cold front that is primed to enter Memphis just after midnight tonight, bringing some thunderstorms into the mix. As we leave Memphis, we’ll be driving in the heaviest of the rain, but will see an abrupt clearing as we pass through Arkansas, Missouri and into Illinois. This front is the best chance we have at some legitimate clearing. It will actually be fairly dry, but probably cloudy most of the way through Illinois, a fairly fitting climate for anyone who is driving through rural Illinois. As we pull into the Kankakee area, we will run into the rain once again. The occluded system will have wrapped itself back east at Chicago, which means we’ll likely be in the rain the rest of the way to Elkhart. Not just a little bit of rain either, but a soaking, thorough rain. Better than snow.