Tag Archives: Charlottesville

Exceeding expectations

We all knew ahead of time that the East Coast was in for a nice warm up. I can assure you that our group was not expecting that it would get quite so warm in Charlottesville. Indeed, temperatures were in the mid 60s on Friday, and then mid 70s on Saturday. That’s a great way to start a weekend. Unfortunately, that warm weather was accompanied by a spit of light rain. No forecast was great, but Accuweather was a bit better than The Weather Channel, and claimed victory.
Actuals: Friday – High 65, Low 29
Saturday – Trace of rain, High 73, Low 32

Grade: C-F

Charlottesville, Virginia

Here we go, a trip to the east coast in what has been a very active month. Will that activity continue into the weekend? Come along with me.

At 953PM, ET, Charlottesville was reporting a temperature of 34 degrees with light winds and clear skies. The back end of an upper level trough streamed over the western parts of the state, brining some high clouds to the Roanoke area.
The wave structure aloft is high frequency, which means a ridge in the Midwest will move swiftly into the mid-Atlantic. Friday will be a warm, dry day, but behind the ridge is a southern trough. A little bundle of energy over the Red River Valley on Saturday morning, it will quickly move eastward, traversing the southern Appalachians and, late in the day, bringing a quick bout of light rainfall to Charlottesville.
Tomorrow – Sunny, High 57, Low 32
Saturday – Light rain late, High 67, Low 39

Tomorrow – Partly cloudy skies. High 60, Low, 28
Saturday – Mostly sunny skies during the morning hours will become overcast in the afternoon (late rain) High 72, Low 41

AW: Tomorrow – Warmer with sunshine and patchy clouds, High 61, Low 26
Saturday – Some sun, then turning cloudy with a couple of showers in the afternoon High 69, Low 36

NWS: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy, then gradually becoming sunny, High 58, Low 24
Saturday – Increasing clouds, late rain High 70, Low 38

WB: Tomorrow – Partly sunny in the morning, then clearing, High 58, Low 31
Saturday – Partly Sunny, High 67, Low 41

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 57, Low 25
Saturday – Partly cloudy, High 70, Low 37

FIO: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy starting overnight, continuing until morning. High 62, Low 27
Saturday – Mostly cloudy starting in the morning. high 69, Low 39

That rain, if they see it on Saturday night will be very light.  The story for denizens of Charlottesville will be how warm it gets this weekend! The NAM and RAP are performing better on temperatures, so I leaned their way, which explains most of the difference in forecasts. Here is a look at the satellite imagery, with a tendril of clouds over western Virginia.

Charlottesville, Virginia to Vineland, New Jersey

This is a good way to spend a Saturday. Just a 4 1/2 hour drive, but it passes from the mountains of the Appalachians, through Washington DC, Baltimore and Philadelphia, to the southern part of New Jersey. The pace will be fairly slow, as we will only move along at 56mph as we snake through our 259 mile journey

It should be a perfect day to navigate this drive. Warm high pressure wlll dominate the region, with the sun shining down on us until we get to the north end of Chesapeake Bay. It’s at that point, and from there to Vineland that we may see some clouds for a little variety, though it will still be warm and pleasant.


A temperature spike, and then some rain

If you were following along in the forum, you know that we were paying close attention to each successive model run as a cold front approached Charlottesville. With every run, the rain was brought further and further south, and the boundary got stronger and stronger. Not only was there enough energy to carry the rain over the Appalachians, but the southerly flow drew such warm air northward that the high temperature spiked at 81 degrees yesterday! While yes, it did rain a little bit, at least the temperatures were nice and toasty. Weatherbug and WeatherNation tied atop the leaderboard.
Actuals: Thursday – High 72, Low 38
Friday – Trace of rain, High 81, Low 55

Grade: C

Charlottesville, Virginia

All right, we’re catching up on some posts, now that my vacation is over, and we are ready to treat the world to a forecast for beautiful Charlottesville, Virginia!

At 1153AM, ET, Charlottesville was reporting clear skies and a temperature of 60 degrees. A weak post frontal wave was bringing some light rain showers to the higher terrain of the Appalachians, but it will not have the energy to transcend the mountain range, and Charlottesville is in for a dry, warm afternoon.
High pressure will hold fast through the day tomorrow. A weak upper level wave will move through Canada through the week, and a cold front will develop over the eastern Great Lakes overnight Thursday into Friday morning. The frontogenesis will lead to some southerly flow across Virginia, which will mean even warmer temperatures and an increase in humidity. Models are split on how far south the boundary will advance, with one suggesting the rain will reach Charlottesville, but the angle at which rain will be moving into town, and the fact that the low, weak already, will be in northern Quebec at the time, seem to suggest the rain will have a tough time reaching the UVA campus.
Tomorrow – Sunny and warm, High 69, Low 37
Friday – Increasing clouds, but a bit warmer, High 72, Low 41

TWC: Tomorrow – Sunny High 71, Low 40
Friday – Partly Cloudy High 75, Low 50

AW: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny and nice High 74, Low 37
Friday – Warm with intervals of clouds and sun; a passing afternoon shower High 77, Low 47

NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny High 71, Low 37
Friday – A chance of showers. Partly sunny High 74, Low 49

WB: Tomorrow – Sunny. High 70, Low 38
Friday – Partly sunny with a 30 percent chance of showers. High 73, Low 51

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly Sunny High 72, Low 37
Friday – Scattered Showers High 73, Low 50

It will be interesting to see just how far south that rain can push on Friday. Satellite shows just a few clouds over the Appalachians at this hour.

On the Warm Side

Most of the forecasts for Charlottesville had them getting warmer on Wednesday than it was on Tuesday, but the main issue were the low temperatures being significantly warmer than expected. Also, over an inch of rain fell on Tuesday, which everybody had forecasted, but probably not to that degree. The sites were pretty split on whether or not they would see precip on Wednesday and they did wind up reporting 0.01″ in the early morning, most likely due to dense fog at the time as opposed to a rain shower. The Weather Channel took home the top spot on the strength of their warmer low temperature forecast.

Tuesday: 1.02″ of rain. High 83, Low 67.
Wednesday: 0.01″ of rain, mostly in dense fog. High 85, Low 63.

Charlottesville, Virginia to Corvallis, Oregon

Are you up for a lengthy trip? Because this one is going to take 5 1/2 days, while covering 2885 miles. That will put us on a pace of 66.58mph. That means those first 5 days on the road will cover 532.7 miles. It’s a lot of time in the car, so we had better get on the road!


It seems like we will travel so much faster early in the trip, because we will cover so many more states. Larger states are the pits. Anyways, the beginning of the drive, from Virginia to West Virginia will be fine, but a cold front sliding south through the Ohio Valley will bring about some isolated thunderstorms, starting for us when we reach Lexington, Kentucky, and continuing west to Sulphur, Indiana, where we will stop for the night. Sulphur is in the far southern part of the Hoosier state, about a half hour west of Louisville.

The day on Thursday will be quiet, which is nice, because St. Louis can be a challenge to drive through if the weather is suspect. Kansas City has never given me a problem, though. Nevertheless, neither esteemed city will be much issue during our second day of travel, which will end on the north side of St. Joseph, Missouri.

The beginning of the drive on Friday will be similarly problem free. Driving through Lincoln is never an issue. We may begin to see a chance for an isolated shower or thunderstorm as soon as we hit the Nebraska Panhandle, however, as a low is developing in the northern High Plains. It looks like it could be a doozy of a system for the Upper Midwest. Fortunately for us, it will just be the spotty isolated shower or storm after I-76 splits off from I-80 until we reach Egbert, Wyoming. Egbert!

The cold front associated with that area of low pressure will actually be hanging back in western Wyoming and northern Utah. It will turn into showers and thunderstorms west of Rock Springs. The thunderstorm threat will pick up around Evanston, where some heavy downpours are possible. The rain threat will essentially be at it’s end when we reach Ogden, Utah, and our northwesterly turn towards Idaho will be dry. The day will end in Snowville, Utah, just short of Idaho.

Finally, the Pacific Northwest, where it’s always dry and there is always sun. Wait, huh? Lately, every time we forecast out there it dry and pleasant. No different when we leave Snowville and head through Idaho and eastern Oregon. No problems whatsoever. The day will end in Blalock Canyon, Oregon, which is right by the Columbia River. Just a little bit more to go on a leisurely Sunday drive.

Winds are going to pick up when we get to Portland and head south towards Corvallis. No rain, or issues that way, but keep both hands on the wheel on the way into the home of the Oregon State Beavers.

Charlottesville, Virginia

We are off to the home of Thomas Jefferson and the University of Virginia, in Charlottesville, Virginia.

At 153PM, ET, Charlottesville was reporting a temperature of 68 degrees with cloud and rain. A weak cool front in New England and the remnant instability caused by a low level trough in the southeast was producing widespread rain from Maine to Florida, and a spin in the atmosphere over far western Virginia was ensuring that Charlottesville was seeing some of the heaviest rain at the time.
A weak upper level trough is forming thanks to the long duration of the lower level feature, and with a little bit more structure, the moisture will be shoved off the coast. The respite will only be temporary through, as a stronger system emerging from the Great Lakes will draw the moisture back inland for some showers and thunderstorms in the afternoons Tuesday and Wednesday, as a cold front lingers west of the Appalachians.
Tomorrow – A few showers and storms in the afternoon, High 78, Low 59
Wednesday – Sunnier and warmer, but with a few afternoon storms, High 84, Low 57

TWC: Tomorrow – Scattered T-Storms High 76, Low 65
Wednesday – Partly Cloudy (Early AM rain) High 81, Low 62

AW: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with a shower or thunderstorm around High 79, Low 62
Wednesday – Times of clouds and sun High 83, Low 57

NWS: Tomorrow – Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm. Cloudy High 77, Low 61
Wednesday – A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny High 80, Low 58

WB: Tomorrow – Occasional showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms in the morning…then showers likely with isolated thunderstorms in the afternoon. Some thunderstorms may produce heavy rainfall. High 76, Low 60
Wednesday – Mostly cloudy in the morning…then becoming mostly sunny. High 79, Low 57

On this one, it appears that the Weather Service and V-W are in the same frame of thought. Rain each of the next two days is possible, but certainly, most of it will be east of Charlottesville. Not right now though. Plenty of rain to contend with right now.