Tag Archives: Carson City

Strong enough to clear the Sierras

There is a large system battering the West Coast this week, though it is second fiddle to the next in a long line of features pummeling the East Coast. Carson City lies in the rain shadow of the Sierras around Lake Tahoe, and to demonstrate just how strong this feature was, I can say that it even produced a little rain yesterday in the Nevada capital. The real show was closer to the coast where there was concern about landslides, and in the mountains, impressive snowfall. In Carson City, though, we had a forecast, and Accuweather correctly anticipated the strength of this system, and had a very good, very accurate forecast.
Actuals: Monday, High 50, Low 23
Tuesday – Rain reported, not measured, High 48, Low 30

Grade: A-C

Carson City, Nevada

Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 51, Low 22
Tuesday – Chance of late showers,, High 53, Low 30

TWC: Tomsorrow – Sunny, High 51, Low 22
Tuesday – Cloudy, High 50, Low 31

AW: Tomorrow – Partly sunny and cold High 50, Low 23
Tuesday – Cold with considerable cloudiness; rain arriving in the afternoon High 51, Low 30

NWS: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 52, Low 25
Tuesday –  A 20 percent chance of rain after 11am. High 53, Low 30

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy in the morning, then clearing. High 49, Low 21
Tuesday – Mostly cloudy. Slight chance of rain and snow in the afternoon, High 45, Low 28

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 52, Low 25
Tuesday – Mostly cloudy with scattered showers, High 53, Low 30

FIO: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy until night. High 62, Low 29
Tuesday – Mostly cloudy throughout the day. (late rain) High 52, Low 31

I obviously saw something in the forecast after I recorded. Temps will be a hair warmer than I said. Other than that, no big changes.

Carson City, Nevada to Minneapolis, Minnesota

Classic road trips need to head through South Dakota. That’s just the rule. This three day trip will do just that, so you know it’s a good one. We’re going to cover 3 days, with the third day lasting a little bit longer than the first two. Our drive will be 1,778 miles, done at a pace of 68.4mph, so our first two days will allow us coverage of 547 miles. The Rockies can be sketchy this time of year, but perhaps the rest of the drive will be a bit more manageable.

DAY ONE (Monday)

My fears of sketchiness in the higher terrain of the intermountain West will be confirmed on Monday. A sharp trough angled from the Canadian Prairies towards the Mojave will slice right across the Great Basin. The angle won’t allow the absorption of much moisture into the feature, and high pressure will prevent it from moving terribly quickly. Instead, expect gusty winds with some light flurries, particularly around the Elko area in northeastern Nevada. Accumulations won’t stack up, but in this part of the world, the breeze will make it difficult to see. There is a chance that the flurry activity will continue into the Bonneville Flats which provides an interesting conundrum. How can you tell if the snow is accumulating. or if it’s just the salt? We’ll make it to a slightly snowy Salt Lake City to call it a day.

DAY TWO (Tuesday)
Our trough will attempt to bring moisture in from the chilly eastern Pacific over the Wasatch, and it will largely be unsuccessful. There might be a few snow showers at the beginning of our day as we travel through the far northern end of the Wasatch range in northeastern Utah, but after that, the day will be pretty easy. Wyoming is going to stay clear of the snowy conditions, and we will end the day in the least populous county in the least populous state, north of Lusk at the Mule Creek junction in Niobara County.

DAY THREE (Wednesday)
Chilly upper level troughing is going to recede from the Upper Midwest on Wednesday, just in time for us to arrive. The sun will be out in full force, which is going to be great, because it will make a long day tolerable. IF the day wasn’t already 10 hours long, I would say stop at Mount Rushmore, but instead, I will just say get to Minneapolis, where you will actually get to experience a comfortable day.

The verdict is: A warm up

The biggest question in Carson City wasn’t whether it was going to rain or snow or anything like that. There was no chance of rain. The real question was whether a system moving ashore along the west coast would bring about warming, or if it would produce clouds that would keep temperatures in check. Well, the title of the post kind of gave things away, didn’t it? There was a warm up of 3 degrees from Sunday to Monday, so that counts! The Weather Service and Weatherbug ended up with the top forecast, thanks to the modest warm up they had in Nevada’s capital.
Actuals: Sunday – High 57, Low 28
Monday – High 60, Low 33

Grade: B-C

Cedar Rapids, Iowa to Carson City, Nevada

Westward ho! We’re off on a 3 day adventure, covering 1724 miles at a pace of nearly 69mph. Days one and two will be a bit shorter, concluding after 551 miles. High pressure is in place right now. Will that change?

DAY ONE (Sunday)
The Upper Midwest is cold and brisk, wallowing in the back side of a strong low now shifted into Canada. The upper level trough still demarcates the back end of cold weather, and will run through western Iowa through most of the day tomorrow. Warmer weather is on its way, and there will be the beginnings of a temperature recovery as we cross into Nebraska. We will make it west for a while, before settling in at Norwalk, just to the east of Kearney. Temperatures will be much better on Monday.

DAY TWO (Monday)
It’s going to be quieter as we head westbound on I-80 on Monday. Ridging will be in place, and the trough that had caused problems the day before with some brisk north winds will be long gone. Calm day, driving through the remainder of the Plains… we should make good time. The day will end Point of Rocks, Wyoming. Only one more day to slug our way through.

DAY THREE (Tuesday)
Western Wyoming, northern Utah and most of Nevada will be problem free on Tuesday. A sharp strong trough organizing in the Pacific Northwest will struggle to bring precipitation across the Sierras. This will save us throughout most of the final third of our drive on Tuesday, but there will eventually be some spillover. The threat for rain wiil begin to threaten about an hour after we turn off of I-80, and less than an hour before we arrive in Carson City. Fortunately, at this time of arrival, we should expect some light rain, and not snow. Something to be thankful for this week, I guess.
Carson City

Carson City, Nevada

We are headed out west for this evening’s forecast. Will we be able to see the beginning of a major change?

At 1115PM, PT, Carson City was reporting a temperature of 32 degrees with clear skies. High pressure is being felt aloft and at the surface, though the ridging aloft was undercut by a jet streak along the Mexican Border. This streak’s position is preventing warm air from filtering into the western US, and the clear skies mean any warmth in the area is radiating out, which is leading to the freezing temperatures.
The pattern over the western US is going to remain relatively unchanged, though it will be quite turbulent aloft. A weak wave presently over the eastern PAcific will sweep through the area on Monday afternoon, bringing some mid and high lever clouds, to the point that the sun may be obscured. This will also prevent the temperatures from falling off too dramatically on Monday night into Tuesday morning. More significant weather is expected to arrive on Tuesday, after the forecast period has passed.
Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 55, Low 20
Monday – Mostly cloudy, High 56, Low 30

TWC: Tomorrow – Partly Cloudy Skies, High 61, Low 26
Monday – PArtly cloudy skies, High 57, Low 32

AW: Tomorrow – Partly sunny High 60 Low 27
Monday – Partly sunny High 58, Low 31

NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 58, Low 31
Monday – Mostly sunny, High 59, Low 32

WB: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 58, Low 31
Monday – PArtly cloudy, High 59, Low 32

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly Sunny High 54, Low 30
Monday – Partly Cloudy High 59, Low 40

FIO: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy throughout the day. High 59, Low 31
Monday – Mostly cloudy starting in the evening. High 56, Low 34

I’m not so sure that temperatures are going to warm all that much on Monday. It’s interesting to see the difference in opinion across the board, some expecting temperatures to cool, some expecting warming. I am just splitting the difference. Here is the very empty satellite for the entire west. You can see something brewing in the Pacific.
Carson City

Typical Summer Sun

As per usual in the Western US during the summer, it gets hot. Sometimes monsoon thunderstorms will perk up as well, but as mentioned in the Carson City forecast, an upper-level feature was keeping any of that well off to the east. Luckily, the temperatures came in a couple degrees cooler than anticipated, which I’m sure nobody will complain about. Accuweather took down the top spot in this forecast.

Monday: High 87, Low 50.
Tuesday: High 89, Low 47.
Forecast Grade: A

Carson City, Nevada

Out west we go to begin our week. The trip is to the foothills of the Sierras and the capital of Nevada. What kind of weather can we expect out there?

At 1055PM, MT, Carson City was reporting a temperature of 82 degrees with clear skies. Dew points in the mid 30s reflected a dry environment at the western end of the Great Basin. A very weak upper level trough was found over the eastern Great Basin, leading to some surface cylcogenesis. This will lead to high elevation convection in the Rockies, Wasatch and Colorado Plateau, but there isn’t enough moisture to fold back to Carson City.
Over the Sirerras, a thermal ridge will set up, forcing the surface reflection of the upper feature even further to the east. Not only will the capital area remain dry, but the eastern part of the state will begin to stabilize as well.
Tomorrow – Sunny, High 90, Low 49
Tuesday – Sunny, High 91, Low 47

TWC: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 89, Low 51
Tuesday – Mostly Sunny, High 90, Low 50

AW: Tomorrow – Warm with brilliant sunshine High 87, Low 49
Tuesday – Sunny and warm High 88, Low 48

NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny High 91, Low 49
Tuesday – Sunny High 91, Low 48

WB: Tomorrow – Sunny High 89, Low 50
Tuesday – Sunny High 89, Low 49

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly Sunny High 91, Low 48
Tuesday – Mostly Sunny High 93, Low 48

FIO: Tomorrow – Clear throughout the day. High 84, Low 51
Tuesday – Clear throughout the day. High 84 Low 50

That Forecast.io was a real surprise. Everyone else, save for Accuweather was exceeding model guidance with they forecast, so this is an odd choice to go so cool. WE can see some storms flaring up over the eastern part of Nevada right now.
Carson City

The Crisp Sierras

Carson City sits a few hundred feet higher than Reno, and as a result, are often a cool spot in the State of Nevada. They were fairly cool in the state capital on Monday, but particularly on Tuesday as some cooler weather rushed into the Great Basin thanks to a system rolling through the Pacific Northwest. Carson City’s mountainous location led to cooler temperatures, but also dry conditions,despite the energy associated with the system thanks to the Capital’s position in the rain shadow. The National Weather Service handled the difficult forecast well, proving that practice makes perfect.
Actuals: Monday – High 68, Low 44
Tuesday – High 60, Low 46

Grade: B-C

Carson City, Nevada to Naples, Florida

Oh baby, is this a long road trip. We’re going to take nearly 6 full days to cover the nearly 3000 miles between the endpoints of this trip. Our average speed will be 65.75mph, which means days 1-5 will be through after 526 miles with a shorter day to finish things off. Lots of driving. We’d better depart.

DAY ONE (Tuesday)
Carson City
I usually opt for the first route option Mapquest recommends, but for some reason, the route proffered was a full hour longer than the 2nd option today. The first route heads east on I-80, but instead, we will head southeast towards Las Vegas. A swirling area of low pressure over the Pacific Northwest will produce showers across the center of the state, mostly triggered by the higher terrain found in the middle of the state. There could be a scattered showers in Tonopah as we head towards Vegas, but the bulk of the trip will be at a low enough elevation that we won’t have to worry about any of those showers or thunderstorms, and the system will be receding from northern Nevada anyways. The drive will end in Golden Valley, Arizona, just outside of Kingman. It will be warm in southern Nevada and northwest Arizona, but definitely palatable for almost anyone.

DAY TWO (Wednesday)
A developing disturbance in south Texas will be lifting north over the next several days. We will encounter the back end of the system almost immediately after we hit the New Mexico border. There will be scattered thunderstorms throughout the western Arizona mountains, though the heaviest will be reserved for the terrain just west of Albuquerque. As we drive through western New Mexico, the low will be lifting north, and the available moisture will be greatly reduced for our route. By the time we his Albuquerque, expect mostly rain showers, without the threat for thunder. The day will end on the east side of Moriarty, which is east of Albuquerque.

DAY THREE (Thursday)
The system will be lifting north northeast towards the Upper Midwest, and it will dry up nicely in Moriarty overnight. We will drive through Amarillo and Wichita Falls in mostly cloudy but dry conditions. A stalled cold front will bring showers to the Metroplex, but we will stop in Alvord, just before we get to the northwestern part of the region. Pretty good timing t head through this part of the country.

DAY FOUR (Friday)
As the low erodes in the Great Lakes, the Gulf of Mexico will be wide open on Friday. There won’t be anything organized, but particularly after we cross into Louisiana west of Shreveport, we may be subject to scattered showers and thunderstorms. From Alexandria southwestward, some of those storms are prone to be soaking and torrential, but they won’t be pervasive, and they won’t move much. This means that we won’t constantly be getting soaked, and we may well see the sun in-between rain showers. Of course, in the midst of the rainfall, there could be flash flooding. Win some, lose some. WE will stop for the night in Sunset, Louisiana, which is just north of Lafayette.

DAY FIVE (Saturday)
This is definitely going to be daytime convection rich. This is still 5 days out, but it appears that the best chance for heavy thunderstorms will be from Biloxi to Pensacola, but that makes sense, because the heaviest convection during the sea breeze season is usually in the afternoon. WE will be between Biloxi and Pensacola during the afternoon. As we start to veer away from the coast, we will still be subject to a chance for thunderstorms, but they won’t be as persistent, though since they will take more energy to trigger, they may be heavier. Before we begin our final southward leg, we will stop for the night in Welborn, Florida, west of Live Oak, east of Lake City.

DAY SIX (Sunday)
This is it! Just one last trip south. There should only be a few pop up thunderstorms, starting around Cape Coral, through most of the convection will be inland of our route. There will be a chance that we could get grazed by one of these cells for the rest of the drive on into Naples. A little bit different than Carson City, is Naples.