It was a fairly rainy stretch in Elmira as we began April, as it has been from the Plains to the mountains of the Eastern US, but there was a little bit of texture to the story on Wednesday and Thursday. A warm front brought about a quarter inch or rain over the two days, but perhaps of more pertinence, it also brought a temperature spike of 25 degrees. Spring tried moving into New York this week, and the Weather Service and WeatherNation were there for it. We are in April, and it was the first victory share of the year for WeatherNation. Actuals: Wednesday, .16 inches of rain, High 51, Low 28 Thursday – .03 inches of rain, High 76, Low 49
It’s Friday, at least. Will it be a good weekend at the Pennsylvania Capitol?
At 556PM ET, Harrisburg was reporting a temperature of 65 degrees with overcast skies. A sharp upper level trough in the Plains was producing another severe outbreak in the Mid South, with a truncated rain shield following a warm front to western Pennsylvania. More entrenched is a ridge on the East Coast, pushing the mid and upper 60s to near the New York border. The upper level pattern will be slow to move, but at the surface, the instability will attempt to continue northeastward. Redevelopment will occur in the southern Plains, and showers moving to central Pennsylvania will lose potency, and severe weather is not anticipated. The entire system will inch further east through Sunday. Tapping into the Gulfstream moisture will make for a bit more rain than Saturday will provide. Rain may not clear out on Sunday, slowing the cool down. Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with scattered showers, High 58, Low 49 Sunday – Some heavier showers, lighter late, High 56, Low 47
TWC: Tomorrow – Cloudy with a few showers. High 60, Low 52 Sunday – Overcast with rain showers at times. Thunder possible. High 55, Low 46
AW: Tomorrow – Cloudy with a little rain High 62, Low 53 Sunday – Cloudy with occasional rain and a thunderstorm High 60, Low 45
NWS: Tomorrow – Rain likely, mainly after 4pm. Cloudy, High 63, Low 54 Sunday – Rain High 60, Low 44
WB: Tomorrow – Rain likely. High 59, Low 54 Sunday – Rain. High 55, Low 44
WN: Tomorrow – Cloudy with light rain likely, High 62, Low 53 Sunday – Cloudy with light rain, High 58, Low 45
CLI: Tomorrow – Light rain showers, High 61, Low 51 Sunday – Light Rain Showers, High 60, Low 45
There isn’t going to be a heavy cold pool to clear the murk out of Harrisburg, despite how strong the jet streak overhead is. That jet trough just won’t get moving through town this weekend, though it does lead to a pretty dreary weekend. Look how close the rain is to town, and it isn’t even moving in until tomorrow!
Pine Bluff was among the towns that endured severe weather this week, and as it happens, they are within a tornado watch in a Moderate Risk area again right now. When we put together a forecast there for the beginning of the week, it was the beginning of a needed 2 day interregnum. There was one more splash of rain before sunrise on Monday morning, but both Monday and Tuesday were relatively cool, and definite winners for fans of spring. Clime was also a winner, with a very good forecast, and the good sense to leave the chance of rain in the forecast for Monday, unlike some forecasters. I should note, Pine Bluff and the nearby environs did avoid the worst of the weather on Wednesday. It ended up initiating just to the northeast of the area Actuals: Monday – .08″ of rain, High 71, Low 54 Tuesday – High 76, Low 48
As I noted in our look ahead earlier today, we have a high risk for severe weather in the mid-Mississippi Valley this afternoon and evening. We can go through full severe seasons without a high risk, so this is notable.
Storms are beginning to crop up. There have been some severe storms along the cold front, including tornadoes from Illinois to Arkansas, but all eyes are on the Memphis area, where supercells are popping up in west Tennessee and northern Mississippi, including a confirmed twister near Jackson, TN. Follow along with ABC 24’s live stream
We are starting April, and a very active March is being parlayed into a swift beginning to April. As I post this schedule, know that there is a high risk, a rare designation, for severe storms today in a part of the country that has been battered all spring so far. The high risk extends from Vienna, Illinois to El Dorado, Arkansas, and includes Memphis, Jonesboro and Pine Bluff. Stay vigilant.
Harrisburg, Pennsylvania
Johnson City, Tennessee
Albany, Georgia Road Trip from Tucson, Arizona to Albany.
Elmira is just north of the Pennsylvania border, and usually just to the south of the Lake effect bands of snow. Hopefully in April, we are done with Lake effect!
At 653PM ET, Elmira was reporting a temperature of 41 degrees with clear skies. There was a brisk north wind, flowing toward a boundary connecting a feature in the Gulf Stream to a large feature in the Plains. The evidence of the boundary, however was a wisp of clouds down around Norfolk, and a temperature gradient that sharpened near the Mason-Dixon Line. The boundary will function as a warm front by tomorrow, lifting into the Mid-Atlantic and bringing some significant rain through the area tomorrow evening. Elmira will be within the warm sector by Thursday morning, but overcast and scattered showers will damper some of the enjoyment. Action along the front will be found most prominently much further downstream along the cold front, which will move sluggishly through Elmira in the evening, and won’t result in a precipitous drop off in temperature in the evening. Tomorrow – Increasing clouds with rain, heavy at times in the evening, High 47, Low 23 Thursday – Cloudy, warmer with some showers, High 71, Low 42
TWC: Tomorrow – Cloudy with occasional showers for the afternoon. High 49, Low 27 Thursday – Rain showers early with overcast skies later in the day. High 73, Low 43
AW: Tomorrow – Considerable cloudiness, becoming breezy in the afternoon with a couple of showers late High 48, Low 24 Thursday – Cloudy, breezy and warmer with a couple of showers and a thunderstorm, mainly early in the day High 77, Low 44
NWS: Tomorrow – Showers likely, mainly after 4pm. Mostly cloudy High 52, Low 26 Thursday – Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm. Cloudy High 75, Low 46
WB: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy. Rain showers likely in the afternoon. High 52, Low 30 Thursday – Showers likely. High 72, Low 42
WN: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with a light wintry mix possible, High 51, Low 27 Thursday – Mostly cloudy with light showers and isolated storms, High 73, Low 46
CLI: Tomorrow – Rain showers, High 49, Low 24 Thursday – Rain Showers, High 76, Low 44
Man, distractions and life got in the way, and this one took a while to finish up. But here is the initial satellite showing the band of clouds around Hampton Roads.
Nobody ever notices the low temperatures, and when they start to get warmer. You might look at our forecast for Rockford last week. We knew that Friday and potentially Saturday were going to be sweltering by late-March standards, but our forecast covered Wednesday and Thursday. Believe me when I tell you that the warm up had started on Thursday, though the high temperatures went the other direction. That drop in temperature was due to the overcast and little bit of rain that fell, but the overcast and rain were beckoned by an advancing warm front. The low temperature was in fact 17 degrees warmer on Thursday than Wednesday. Very sneaky. Weatherbug had the top forecast for the day. Actuals: Wednesday – High 57, Low 29 Thursday – .05 inches of rain, High 55, Low 46
1153PM Where did those thunderstorms end up bringing severe weather to? As you may recall, we were looking at an enormous area of severe weather risk leading into the day.
A little towards the northern end of the risk area. For fun, here is the map for today.
Arkansas doesn’t get thought about as a severe weather center, despite the location between both the original Tornado Alley and the Dixie Alley. It can be a stormy place, Arkansas, when March rolls around. It sure has been today.
At 953 PM, CT, Pine Bluff was reporting a temperature of 77 degrees with fair skies. Thunder was beginning to depart Arkansas, however the cold front hadn’t yet reached Pine Bluff. Little Rock’s dew point was dropping, and there were waning showers and isolated storms between Pine Bluff and the capital. The severe storms have moved out, however. After the boundary moves through, an initial pool of cooler air will spill in, and be reinforced by a shallow upper level ridge. This will scuttle a dramatic cooldown, and the next major storm developing in the Plains will kick off a warm up by mid week. Tomorrow – Clearing and cooler, High 70, Low 53 Tuesday – Mostly sunny, High 77, Low 45
TWC: Tomorrow – A mainly sunny sky (Early storms). High 71, Low 53 Tuesday – Partly cloudy skies. High 77, Low 46
AW: Tomorrow – Cooler and less humid with sunshine (early storms); High 71, Low 56 Tuesday – Sunny to partly cloudy and pleasant High 78, Low 47
NWS: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy through mid morning, then gradual clearing (early storms) High 69, Low 53 Tuesday – Mostly sunny, High 77, Low 46
WB: Tomorrow – Sunny, (early rain) High 69, Low 59 Tuesday – Mostly sunny. High 76, Low 49
WN: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny (early storms), High 69, Low 55 Tuesday – Mostly sunny, High 75, Low 47
CLI: Tomorrow – Sunny (early rain) High 70, Low 54 Tuesday – Partly cloudy High 77, Low 48
My forecast counterparts all have a chance for more storms tonight, but it has really quieted in Arkansas (though a cell popped up near Stuttgart just as I finished). The roughest weather in Arkansas today was found up by Jonesboro and Memphis.
We’ve started off busy this spring, with several rounds of severe weather, marked by organization and intensity. While storms, particularly tomorrow, stand to be nasty at times, the remarkable thing is how broad the coverage of this weather is expected to be.
The enhanced risk covers over 240,000 square miles, and features, initially a hail threat in the southwestern portion of the risk early in the day, transitioning to some supercells with a tornado threat centralized along the Ohio downriver from Louisville to the Mississippi south to Greenville, Mississippi. Ultimately, the cells will merge into lines, and strong wind in the southern Great Lakes will be the threat.
The upper level pattern features a broad trough over the middle of the country, setting the stage for broad instability. A couple of short waves at the upper levels will produce more focused inclement weather, and the bullseyes in different areas.
As with any nasty weather, it all depends on where it hits. The biggest thing about this system is that it is big, but the top end energy isn’t going to match some of the storms we’ve seen earlier this month. The geographic scope of the weather means it will be a headline maker, as well as a headache maker for anyone trying to travel.
More rough stuff is expected on Monday along the East Coast. The weather, again, looks to be weaker, but more people, more travelers will be impacted than even tomorrow.
