from Victoria-Weather
St. Louis was under a dominating ridge of high pressure during our forecast period. Return flow on the west side of the ridge drove temperatures up on Thursday, and nearly everyone handled things exquisitely. Victoria-Weather had a perfect forecast for Wednesday, but things ended up cooler in the morning on Thursday, which opened up the forecast for The Weather Channel to narrowly win.
Actuals: Wednesday – High 81, Low 58
Thursday – High 87, Low 55
Grade: A – C
If the temperature doesn’t reach triple digits in the California valleys, is it really a heat wave? That is the question you could ask about Chico to end the month of August, where highs were in the upper 90s. You could also ask who had the best forecast, and that answer would easily be the National Weather Service.
Actuals: Friday, High 98, Low 66
Saturday, High 98, Low 67
Grade: A – C
One thing about being in a temperate climate is that we tend to run out of patience for extreme temperatures as the season grows later. Most of the country, save for Hawaii, sees a warm season and a cold season, so even if you associate, say, Beaumont, with hot temperatures, residents are going to wear on those warm temperatures in the summer. On the 9th and 10th of the month, those temperatures were in the mid to upper 90s, and while The Weather Channel nearly aced the forecast, local residents would have much rather shaved a few degrees off the temperature, especially those 76 degree overnight lows.
Actuals August 9th, High 97, Low 76
August 10th, High 96, Low 76
Grade: A-B
A cool front was sliding into Alabama as the month started, just as we were waiting for Debby to make her way to the Florida Peninsula. Montgomery, typically awash in pop up showers and storms, was able to evade that activity on Saturday, even as a cool front slid through town. “Cool”. It was still in the 90s after it’s passage. There was a lingering splash of rain on Friday morning, which some people successfully called out, but ultimately, the top forecast came to a good temperature prognostication. Because of that, there was a three way tie on top, between The Weather Channel, Weather Service and Weatherbug.
Actuals: Friday – .02 inches of rain, High 95, Low 77
Saturday – High 96, Low 76
Grade: B-C
We took care of one Bloomington, and now it is on to the next, this time in Indiana. As a Purdue grad, I was always unlikely to feel comfortable in the home of Indiana University, but not everyone felt that was the case. After a few early showers, it laid out perfectly for The Weather Channel, who pegged the forecast quite accurately, missing by only a few degrees of error to wrap up July.
Actuals: Thursday, July 25th: .02 inches of rain, High 86, Low 65
Friday, July 26th, High 85, Low 63
Grade: A – C
As you may recall, we had back to back forecasts in Bloomingtons of the Midwest. the first was in Illinois, which, aside from some early rain on the 20th, with departing wet weather, was a pretty comfortable set of days in central Illinois. It was a comfy forecast as well, with no real surprises, and an A effort from winning outlet, WeatherNation.
Actuals: July 20th, .01 inches of rain, High 78, Low 58
July 21st, High 81, Low 65
Grade: A – C
If you go back and look at the forecast for Punta Gorda, you will see that, mysteriously, I said on the 8th it would be mostly sunny through the day, late evening…. and then I let it hang. If I had concluded that statement with “showers” or something like that, Victoria-Weather would have drawn level with Weatherbug for the forecast victory, but that wasn’t how it shook out. Instead, Weatherbug was the sole victor thanks largely to their uncomfortably warm low temperature forecast which matched the uncomfortably warm nights in Punta Gorda. Victoria-Weather would have been close if we’d employed the correct precipitation forecast, because we were the only outlet that anticipated how warm it would be during the day.
Actuals: July 7th, .01 inches of rain, High 95, Low 80
July 8th, .02 inches of rain, High 95, Low 81
Grade: B-C
Our forecast for Utica fell over the Independence Day holiday, and called for a warming trend that would ultimately approach 90 on Friday. While it was a few degrees from 90 on Friday, it was actually warmer on the 4th than it was on the 5th. There was a splash of rain in the morning, but not enough to alter anyone’s plans, so trips to the lake, runs through the sprinkler, or any sort of deck or patio based activities were on. Everyone had the 5th as the warmer day, so WeatherNation being among the warmer forecasts on the 4th and cooler forecasts on the 5th ended up claiming a victory.
Actuals: Thursday – .01 inches of rain, High 87, Low 70
Friday – High 85, Low 69
Grade: C
Our forecast for Fairbanks late in June featured a pretty decent thunderstorm on the 21st. It resulted in about a quarter inch of rain, and the revelation to a few people, I’m sure, that there is thunder in the middle of Alaska. The low pressure that shifted out of the area allowed Fairbanks to see a bit more of the non stop daylight from around the summer equinox, and all that daylight pushed temperatures to close to 80. Victoria-Weather got the top forecast for the day, despite speculating on rain every day through the forecast.
Actuals: June 21st, .23″ of rain, High 75, Low 53
June 22nd, High 79, Low 51
Grade: B-D
Things have mercifully cooled off in the American Southwest since our forecast in Albuquerque at the beginning of the month (though fires still rage). Back then, there was hope for some isolated showers and storms by a few of our outlets, but they would not come to pass on the 7th or 8th of the month. This meant temperatures lingered unchecked in the upper 90s, with enough humidity to make New Mexicans especially uncomfortable. The splash of showers in the forecast, and the lack thereof in reality brought a couple of outlets level on this particular verification, with Clime and Accuweather having different precip forecasts and sharing a win.
Actuals: June 7th, High 97, Low 73
June 8th, High 97, Low 69
Grade: A-C