Competitors and also rans

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Two things were true about the weather in Visalia early this week. First, it was miserably hot, hitting 106 on Monday and tempering a bit to something more livable, hitting 99 on Tuesday. Second, because of the clear skies and somewhat dry air, temperatures cooled off to a much more reasonable level overnight. Everyone knew it would be hot, but only three outlets, The Weather Channel, Accuweather and Victoria-Weather (in that order) accounted for it, while the other 4 were out in left field, also rans, as it were. I want to be clear, though, with temperatures like this, nobody should be doing any running.
Actuals: Monday, High 106, Low 66
Tuesday, High 99, Low 64

Grade A-C

Eugene falls on the warm side

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Eugene sits in the higher terrain of western Oregon, and on either side of the Cascades, it can be cool and damp along the coast, and hot and dry inland from the Cascades, and that’s how it looked to go over the last couple of days. So what did Eugene end up representing? Inland Oregon, it seems, as high temperatures exceeded any forecast, hitting 90 on Sunday an the upper 80s on Monday. On the plus side, because it was so dry, low temperatures were cool and comfortable. Temperatures sunk a lot of forecasts, and Accuweather came out on top with the warmest forecast.
Actuals: Sunday – High 90, Low 57
Monday – High 87, Low 49

Grade: C-F

A healthy drink on a ruined weekend afternoon

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Unlike yesterday’s verification in Evansville, Glens Falls got exactly what they expected – a healthy smack in the chin from a rainy system that ultimately changed up the air mass in eastern New York. A cold front arrived in town around mid-afternoon on Saturday (thanks for that, Mother Nature) and immediately sank temperatures, before they could get too sweltering. Ultimately, it was a pretty good soaker as well, with over 3/4ths of an inch falling. Victoria-Weather was the top dog in the Empire State.
Actuals: Friday, High 80, Low 50
Saturday, .79″ of rain, High 71, Low 54

Grade: B – C

Small relief

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A short wave rippled through the northern tier, bringing cooler air to a lot of the country late last week. We felt it here in the Upper Midwest, it eventually arrived as far as New England, but it sure didn’t show up during our verification for Evansville. The boundary was supposed to arrive in Evansville on Friday evening, bringing some cooling temperatures and brisk winds. The rain never came, and the temperatures stayed in the 90s instead. Victoria-Weather played down the rain chances, but the Weather Service and Clime had strong temperature forecasts, and anticipated a slow arrival to the cold front.
Actuals: Thursday, High 92, Low 65
Friday – High 90, Low 67

Grade: A-C

High pressure weather, low pressure forecast

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St. Louis was under a dominating ridge of high pressure during our forecast period. Return flow on the west side of the ridge drove temperatures up on Thursday, and nearly everyone handled things exquisitely. Victoria-Weather had a perfect forecast for Wednesday, but things ended up cooler in the morning on Thursday, which opened up the forecast for The Weather Channel to narrowly win.
Actuals: Wednesday – High 81, Low 58
Thursday – High 87, Low 55

Grade: A – C

Are we done yet?

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One thing about being in a temperate climate is that we tend to run out of patience for extreme temperatures as the season grows later. Most of the country, save for Hawaii, sees a warm season and a cold season, so even if you associate, say, Beaumont, with hot temperatures, residents are going to wear on those warm temperatures in the summer. On the 9th and 10th of the month, those temperatures were in the mid to upper 90s, and while The Weather Channel nearly aced the forecast, local residents would have much rather shaved a few degrees off the temperature, especially those 76 degree overnight lows.
Actuals August 9th, High 97, Low 76
August 10th, High 96, Low 76

Grade: A-B

Upstream from Debby

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A cool front was sliding into Alabama as the month started, just as we were waiting for Debby to make her way to the Florida Peninsula. Montgomery, typically awash in pop up showers and storms, was able to evade that activity on Saturday, even as a cool front slid through town. “Cool”. It was still in the 90s after it’s passage. There was a lingering splash of rain on Friday morning, which some people successfully called out, but ultimately, the top forecast came to a good temperature prognostication. Because of that, there was a three way tie on top, between The Weather Channel, Weather Service and Weatherbug.
Actuals: Friday – .02 inches of rain, High 95, Low 77
Saturday – High 96, Low 76

Grade: B-C

Bloomington Verification Part 2

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We took care of one Bloomington, and now it is on to the next, this time in Indiana. As a Purdue grad, I was always unlikely to feel comfortable in the home of Indiana University, but not everyone felt that was the case. After a few early showers, it laid out perfectly for The Weather Channel, who pegged the forecast quite accurately, missing by only a few degrees of error to wrap up July.
Actuals: Thursday, July 25th: .02 inches of rain, High 86, Low 65
Friday, July 26th, High 85, Low 63

Grade: A – C

Bloomington Verification, Volume 1

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As you may recall, we had back to back forecasts in Bloomingtons of the Midwest. the first was in Illinois, which, aside from some early rain on the 20th, with departing wet weather, was a pretty comfortable set of days in central Illinois. It was a comfy forecast as well, with no real surprises, and an A effort from winning outlet, WeatherNation.
Actuals: July 20th, .01 inches of rain, High 78, Low 58
July 21st, High 81, Low 65

Grade: A – C