Overnight delivery

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It sure got cold for the holiday week, didn’t it? All that started with a cold front that arrived over the weekend, and clipped Terre Haute just after midnight on Sunday morning. After nearly a half inch of rain on before midday on Sunday, temperatures peaked in the early afternoon, and dropped precipitously, reaching the mid-30s before Sunday turned to Monday. The forecast was actually pretty solid all the way around, with the top forecast going to the National Weather Service and Forecast.io, but weren’t markedly better than everyone else.
Actuals: Saturday – High 52, Low 31
Sunday – .4 inches of rain, High 51, Low 37

Grade: A-B

Chilly mornings in Weirton

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It seems like a trend of late, where we keep getting these forecasts that bust because morning lows are cooler than expected. This is what happened in Weirton as well on Thursday and Friday, with morning lows settling in about 5 degrees cooler than expected. The rain that the city saw wasn’t a hang up, and the high temperatures were pretty well in line, but those pesky lows…. Ultimately, the rain was a hang up for Weathernation, who lost out on the top spot because they didn’t have it for Friday, but Accuweather and the National Weather Service did, and were able to overtake WeatherNation to secure a victory.
Actuals: Thursday – .1″ of rain, High 72, Low 39
Friday – .16″ of rain, High 56, Low 40

Grade: C-D

Overnight drops

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For as heavily as the northeast has been impacted by the weather this year, and all the talk we get every winter of nor’easters and what not, the little round of showers that passed through on early Wednesday morning is almost mythological. The 5 hundredths of an inch that came to Portland on Wednesday morning before the sun was up registered only in the observations at the airport. For the first time in November, the win didn’t go to Victoria-Weather, but rather to Weatherbug. The big differentiator was the low temperature forecasts, as the low temperatures were much cooler than expected.
Actuals: Tuesday – High 66, Low 32
Wednesday – .05 inches of rain, High 56, Low 38

Grade: C-D

The surprise sunburn

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One thing I definitely remember about college was going to the early afternoon football games. It was cool, with highs only in the 60s, and the sun would be shining. Purdue would win more than they lost in those years, and I would get home happy…. until I realized I was completely sunburnt. That was the vibe I was getting from the forecast for Roanoke, which warmed to the mid-60s on Sunday, with help from the dry atmosphere in the mid-Atlantic. Especially after a cloudier day with a high of 53 on Saturday, I am sure the 66 degrees left a lot of people outside, getting more sunburnt than they would have guessed. My skin care discipline is not the best, but Victoria-Weather was able to collect the top forecast for the day.
Actuals: Saturday – High 53, Low 29
Sunday – High 66, Low 32

Grade: B-C

Surprise super soaker

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Forecasts across the board forecast for light rain on the morning on Wednesday the third in Sherman, Texas. The remnants of a system were on their way out of town, and a it appeared as though the worst of the night had long since passed by Tuesday evening’s forecast. Overnight, some of the trailing precipitation caught a little bit of extra energy, and before mid morning, Sherman saw another inch of rain. That’s definitely not just light showers. The temperature forecasts were decent, and we all did forecast for rain, so the forecast scores are pretty decent, but that doesn’t reflect just how sloppy things ended up after our forecast. Victoria-Weather took the top prize in Texas.
Actuals: Wednesday – 1.07, High 47, Low 44
Thursday – High 54, Low 37

Grade: B-C

Missing the rain

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Portland certainly did not miss the rainfall last week, which makes it fairly impressive, in a way, that our forecast fell between the blasts of bomb cyclone and atmospheric river. In fact, on the days of October 27th and 28th, there was only a combined .03 inches of rain. The cloud cover kept temperatures from ranging a whole lot on the 27th, but then, with significantly less activity on the 28th,they really blossomed, hitting 69 degrees. Accuweather did a good job figuring all of this out ahead of time, successfully winning this forecast, notably with the warmest high temperatures on the 28th.
Actuals: October 27th – .03 inches of rain, High 58, Low 52
October 28th, Trace of rain, High 69, Low 53

Grade: A-C

All hail our robot overlords

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When we forecast for Ogden last weekend, I noted specifically that I thought something broke at Forecast.io. Little did I know, it was the rest of us that had the issues. While many of us expected the large system moving into town to bring rain, potentially mountain snow and colder temperatures, Forecast.io didn’t go nearly as cold. Neither did Ogden, as it turned out, and FIO nailed the first three verifying times. Eventually, temperatures fell off quicker than Forecast.io expected, but by that point, they had a commanding lead in the forecast chase.
Actuals: Sunday, High 74, Low 43
Monday – .38 inches of rain, High 63, Low 43

Grade: B-D

A season for change

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Since we forecast for Sioux Falls, South Dakota has seen two separate large areas of low pressure have moved through the northern Rockies and the northern Plains. The second round brought snow to the central part of the state, and the first came just 2 hours after our forecast period ended, along with blustery winds and thunderstorms. It wasn’t enough to put the forecast verification too far off kilter, and it sure has shifted the season. The Weather Channel earned the victory.
Actuals: October 11th, High 73, Low 41
October 12th, High 70, Low 43

Grade: A-B

Autumnal feel in LA

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I’m not sure how Californians relate to the change in seasons like we do east of the Rockies, but if they do identify with the seasons, then the air in Los Angeles last weekend was positively fall like. Temperatures were in the 70s in the afternoon, with 50s overnight. If there were deciduous trees in LA, I would think to do some leaf peeping. One thing to take a look at in Los Angeles, though, is the forecast you might get from Weatherbug. They were nearly perfect for a good weather weekend forecast. The gold standard, truly.
Actuals: Saturday, High 71, Low 56
Sunday, High 78, Low 55

Grade: A-C

Dothan stays dry, gets cool

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For the second time in the day, we had a forecast where many outlets called for rain, and I couldn’t figure out why. In Cleveland, there was a little bit of rain, just as the forecast period started, but in Dothan, the rain was indeed long out of town. The cool air behind the rain was there too, with temperatures dipping a little bit below where V-W had forecast, which opened some daylight, and another outlet who forecast a dry period in Dothan, Forecast.io, ended up securing victory.
Actuals: Friday, High 86, Low 67
Saturday – High 85, Low 63

Grade: A-C