A dreary end to summer

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Just as summer turned to fall in Ohio, we forecast for Columbus. Wet weather was on it’s way into the Buckeye State, and was expected to bring a change to the pattern in central Ohio. Joke was on us, though, as that change came a day early. With rain and clouds, perhaps a bit thicker than expected, that change came a day early. Highs only reached 73 last Tuesday, thought they did get even cooler by mid week. All forecasters came through with a pretty workable forecast, with Weatherbug narrowly surpassing the rest.
Actuals: Monday – .01 inches of light rain, High 81, Low 71
Tuesday – .24 inches of rain, High 73, Low 67

Grade: B-C

Cold front!

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We’ve been following along with a front that moved steadily across the country, snapping the summer like start to September for a lot of the eastern two thirds of the country. We started looking at it when it was about to pass through St. Louis about a week ago. Temperatures ended up dropping by about 10 degrees from Tuesday to Wednesday. The low temperatures on Wednesday were actually the biggest discrepancy across the board, as they went all the way down to 60. The lowest low forecast for last Wednesday was from The Weather Channel, and as a result, they were the champion in St. Louis.
Actuals: 9/14 – .22 inches of rain in thunderstorms, High 90, Low 69
9/15 – .02 inches of rain, High 82, Low 60

Grade: B-C

Nicholas approaches

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To conclude a long look at the drenching conditions brought about by Tropical Storm Nicholas, we took up a forecast for Jackson, Mississippi. The rain was slow in coming, but frankly, it has been even slower in leaving. Tere was a trace of rain last Monday, and a quarter inch on Tuesday, but then there has been rain in the area every day since. Nicholas has definitely been a bad house guest. The top forecast went to The National Weather Service and WeatherNation, as a tag team effort.
Actuals: Monday – Trace of rain, High 85, Low 74
Tuesday – .25 inches of rain, High 80, Low 72

Grade: B-C

No such luck

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Rain and cooler temperatures moved into the Pacific Northwest this week, and the first bouts of wet weather had just passed Redding by when we stopped in for a forecast. Unfortunately, they never returned, with the jet trough planting itself north of the Oregon border. Redding stayed hot and smoky through the weekend last weekend. The scenario was well anticipated by our forecasters, and there was good clustering across the board, with The Weather Channel securing a solo victory.
Actuals: Saturday, High 96, Low 67
Sunday, High 95, Low 61

Grade: B-C

Missed by Mindy

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After expecting Mindy to drift a bit further north than she actually did, a lot of outlets ended up looking foolish on our forecast for Columbia, 6 of the 7 thought that the storm would pass close enough to central South Carolina that the state capital would get a bit, perhaps a substantial bit, of rain. Judging by storm reports, was only ever really a problem down by Tybee Island in Georgia, and Columbia didn’t actually get any rain. None. So Forecast.io who had no precipitation in the forecast got a share of the victory, but so too did Victoria-Weather, who despite the whiff on Mindy, accurately forecast the high and low on Friday. Even though forecasters were disappointed by their inaccuracy, I’m sure Columbia residents were just fine.
Actuals: Thursday – High 85, Low 67
Friday – High 84, Low 64

Grade: B – C

Everyone knows it’s Mindy

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Mindy really took off on us. It looked like a fairly innocuous disturbance in the Gulf, but then over the course of a couple days, our forecasts in the area seemed to call for more and more rain. Tampa was clobbered by at least one big cell on Thursday, with a quarter inch of rain coming through, and rain falling on both days to end the workweek. Victoria-Weather and the Weather Service took the top forecast in Tampa, thanks to our belief that heat would still bleed through the storm clouds brought by Mindy.
Actuals: Thursday – .23 inches of rain, High 90, Low 79
Friday – .08 inches of rain, High 90, Low 75

Grade: B-C

Spots of drops

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We took a look at two Florida cities recently, and when we looked at Gainesville, Mindy wasn’t really much of a consideration. Fortunately for our forecast consideration, the eventual tropical storm skirted north of the University of Florida campus, instead leaving isolated showers and storms in the region. If I need to spell it out further, there were actually some outlets that didn’t have rain in the forecast on Monday, which was definitely enough to change the overall balance of the day. Forecast.io would have won, had they put rain in the forecast — again, a forecast near an emergent tropical storm — but instead, it’s Weatherbug with the victory.
Actuals: Monday -.01 inches of rain, High 89, Low 71
Tuesday – .01 inches of rain, High 86, Low 73

Grade: A-B

Going all in

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Central California was in the midst of a hot streak over Labor Day weekend, and Madera was no exception. My general rule of thumb for the heat, and with sunny skies is to always bet on the over. That is to say, it will probably be a little warmer than the forecast. Also, in clear dry nights, the temperature bottoms out a bit lower than the forecast. By following those two rules of thumb, Victoria-Weather was able to collect the victory in central California.
Actuals: Sunday – High 100, Low 55
Monday – High 103, Low 61

Grade: B-D

A small taste of autumn

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While for many, it has been a long, hot summer, it’s actually been a bit truncated and cooler than normal in the southeastern United States. The remnants of Ida caused terrible destruction in the Northeast, all while trailing a cold front that developed as the storm became extra tropical, which tailed through north Florida as we forecast for Hinesville on Wednesday. As the work week concluded, Hinesville was able to enjoy some mild temperatures, along with the sunshine. It’s not often they get to see those two in concert, particularly in the summer. Also rare was Forecast.io’s solo victory.
Actuals: Thursday – High 90, Low 73
Friday – High 86, Low 67

Grade: A-B

Failing to meet expectations

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It seems like in so many circumstances lately, the weather has met the extreme ends of forecasts. Intensity, heat, rainfall, it just seems that we are reaching the worst case scenario all too often. When we get a record high potential in the forecast, as we had in Hickory for the past weekend, and it fails to come close, that seems like big news too! Instead of surpassing the mid-90s record highs over the weekend, It didn’t even hit 90 on Sunday, and stopped at 90 on Saturday. Weatherbug is usually helped by forecasts that stay on the cool side, and it was no different in Hickory. WB gets the W.
Actuals: Saturday – High 90, Low 70
Sunday – High 89, Low 70

Grade B-C