The surprise sunburn

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One thing I definitely remember about college was going to the early afternoon football games. It was cool, with highs only in the 60s, and the sun would be shining. Purdue would win more than they lost in those years, and I would get home happy…. until I realized I was completely sunburnt. That was the vibe I was getting from the forecast for Roanoke, which warmed to the mid-60s on Sunday, with help from the dry atmosphere in the mid-Atlantic. Especially after a cloudier day with a high of 53 on Saturday, I am sure the 66 degrees left a lot of people outside, getting more sunburnt than they would have guessed. My skin care discipline is not the best, but Victoria-Weather was able to collect the top forecast for the day.
Actuals: Saturday – High 53, Low 29
Sunday – High 66, Low 32

Grade: B-C

Surprise super soaker

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Forecasts across the board forecast for light rain on the morning on Wednesday the third in Sherman, Texas. The remnants of a system were on their way out of town, and a it appeared as though the worst of the night had long since passed by Tuesday evening’s forecast. Overnight, some of the trailing precipitation caught a little bit of extra energy, and before mid morning, Sherman saw another inch of rain. That’s definitely not just light showers. The temperature forecasts were decent, and we all did forecast for rain, so the forecast scores are pretty decent, but that doesn’t reflect just how sloppy things ended up after our forecast. Victoria-Weather took the top prize in Texas.
Actuals: Wednesday – 1.07, High 47, Low 44
Thursday – High 54, Low 37

Grade: B-C

Missing the rain

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Portland certainly did not miss the rainfall last week, which makes it fairly impressive, in a way, that our forecast fell between the blasts of bomb cyclone and atmospheric river. In fact, on the days of October 27th and 28th, there was only a combined .03 inches of rain. The cloud cover kept temperatures from ranging a whole lot on the 27th, but then, with significantly less activity on the 28th,they really blossomed, hitting 69 degrees. Accuweather did a good job figuring all of this out ahead of time, successfully winning this forecast, notably with the warmest high temperatures on the 28th.
Actuals: October 27th – .03 inches of rain, High 58, Low 52
October 28th, Trace of rain, High 69, Low 53

Grade: A-C

All hail our robot overlords

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When we forecast for Ogden last weekend, I noted specifically that I thought something broke at Forecast.io. Little did I know, it was the rest of us that had the issues. While many of us expected the large system moving into town to bring rain, potentially mountain snow and colder temperatures, Forecast.io didn’t go nearly as cold. Neither did Ogden, as it turned out, and FIO nailed the first three verifying times. Eventually, temperatures fell off quicker than Forecast.io expected, but by that point, they had a commanding lead in the forecast chase.
Actuals: Sunday, High 74, Low 43
Monday – .38 inches of rain, High 63, Low 43

Grade: B-D

A season for change

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Since we forecast for Sioux Falls, South Dakota has seen two separate large areas of low pressure have moved through the northern Rockies and the northern Plains. The second round brought snow to the central part of the state, and the first came just 2 hours after our forecast period ended, along with blustery winds and thunderstorms. It wasn’t enough to put the forecast verification too far off kilter, and it sure has shifted the season. The Weather Channel earned the victory.
Actuals: October 11th, High 73, Low 41
October 12th, High 70, Low 43

Grade: A-B

Autumnal feel in LA

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I’m not sure how Californians relate to the change in seasons like we do east of the Rockies, but if they do identify with the seasons, then the air in Los Angeles last weekend was positively fall like. Temperatures were in the 70s in the afternoon, with 50s overnight. If there were deciduous trees in LA, I would think to do some leaf peeping. One thing to take a look at in Los Angeles, though, is the forecast you might get from Weatherbug. They were nearly perfect for a good weather weekend forecast. The gold standard, truly.
Actuals: Saturday, High 71, Low 56
Sunday, High 78, Low 55

Grade: A-C

Dothan stays dry, gets cool

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For the second time in the day, we had a forecast where many outlets called for rain, and I couldn’t figure out why. In Cleveland, there was a little bit of rain, just as the forecast period started, but in Dothan, the rain was indeed long out of town. The cool air behind the rain was there too, with temperatures dipping a little bit below where V-W had forecast, which opened some daylight, and another outlet who forecast a dry period in Dothan, Forecast.io, ended up securing victory.
Actuals: Friday, High 86, Low 67
Saturday – High 85, Low 63

Grade: A-C

Done in early

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I was brave and bold with the forecast for Cleveland. I had no rain in there, and for the predominance of residents in the area, I’m sure they thought that forecast was spot on. But no, a heavy rain storm was in the area for the first hour of the day on Thursday. They had .87″ of rain before 1AM on Thursday, and then it was mostly done for the rest of the week. That counts as a busted forecast for me, and Victoria-Weather fell out of contention. The Weather Channel would have won the day regardless. I’m not sure if that is a consolation or not.
Actuals: Friday: .87″ of rain in thunderstorms, High 81, Low 63
Saturday – High 81, Low 57

Grade: B-C

The Appalachians — Lower than expected

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The forecast was pretty clear. The majority of our outlets thought that Sunday would be an entirely dry day in Roanoke, because moisture associated with an area of low pressure in the Tennessee Valley seemed like it would get pinned on the west side of the mountains, at least for another day. A couple of outlets, including The Weather Service and Weatherbug, thought a little bit of rain would spill over those hills. In the end, it was a pretty good shot of rain, about 2 tenths of an inch, that fell on Roanoke. Not great! Except, I suppose, for the Weather Service, who coasted to victory.
Actuals – Saturday – High 82, Low 54
Sunday – .19 inches of rain, High 81, Low 62

Grade: A(somehow)-C

High skill

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Last week, the combination of Nicholas and low pressure in the Great Lakes finally started moving out of the country (to be replaced this week, of course) and brought a quick burst of cool, autumnal air to our forecast spot in Greenville, South Carolina. Sure, it rained on Wednesday, but the day after was heavenly. So too were the forecast. With some action to contend with, the scores on these forecasts were really quite good. Accuweather ended up claiming the win.
Actuals: Wednesday, 9/22 – .31 inches of rain, High 80, Low 62
Thursday – High 75, Low 54

Grade: A -B