On track

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When we put together the forecast for Chicago at the end of February, there was a strong southwest to northeast jet, that really hasn’t changed a whole lot, even now as we enter the middle of March. One change, I suppose, is that the jet has lifted a bit to the north, so Chicago is now warmer, but back in February, the Windy City would get snow on the north side of a feature, followed by cold air. That’s the pattern we followed leading into the last weekend of the month. The cool down rate was a bit challenging, and gave way to some spotty forecast consistency, but ultimately, the Weather Service (who allowed a Midway Airport specific forecast, unlike nearly all other comers) grabbed a victory.
Actuals: Friday 2/25 – .04 inches of liquid in light snow, High 31, Low 20
Saturday 2/26 – High 33, Low 16

Grade: B-C

Snow skipper

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If you like winter weather, the Great Lakes and New England are great places to be. Snow comes in heavy in that part of the world, and is usually the wet, dense stuff, perfect for snowmen and snowballs, and not the wispy inch or two you get in the Plains that aren’t really good for anything. What is worse than that, though, is when it rains. That’s all they got in Lima on the 11th, in the distant past when we issued our forecast for the northwestern Ohioan town. What a tease! Victoria-Weather saw it coming, though, and collected the top forecast in town, for our first win in 2022.
Actuals: February 10th, High 37, Low 28
February 11th – .12″ of rain, High 43, Low 28

Grade: A-C

Glazed Hickory

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The beginning of this month has brought a relentless cavalcade of systems moving along the east coast, keeping it snowy in New England and the Mid Atlantic and cold in the middle of the country. Where the two meet and merge with the south, AKA the southern Appalachians, it has been icy at times. On Monday in Hickory, there was .16″ of freezing rain, which is enough to cause a fair share of issues for locals. The temperatures climbed into the 50s on Tuesday though, which helped to clear things up. We put together a forecast last Sunday, and it was won decisively by Accuweather.
Actuals: Monday – .16″ of rain, High 39, Low 29
Tuesday – High 54, Low 30

Grade: A-C

Brisk for west Texas

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The Texas Panhandle was a chilly place to be at the end of January and beginning of February. Well, it was cold in Amarillo relative to most of the forecasts available, but Tuesday was actually quite chilly. Monday was in the mid-60s, but was still a few degrees shy of the forecast. Accuweather was on the low end of the forecast range, and had a very good total, winning the day.
Monday – High 66, Low 29
Tuesday – High 46, Low 32

Grade A-C

NorCal at it’s best (and worst)

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I spent a lovely weekend in northern California in the fall of 2019, attending a wedding for one of my best friends. The day before, my wife and I went for a hike in the hills outside of Petaluma, and it was absolutely sweltering. The night of the wedding, in Sonoma, a wind came up during the outdoor reception, and I’m not sure I’ve ever been so cold. Same vibes for Santa Rosa (though a little reversed) during our forecast period. On the 18th, temperatures were several degrees below the forecast totals across the board. On the 19th, however, the reverse was true, and the readings were a bit warmer than any forecast. The result of this temperature and forecast whiplash was a three way draw between Victoria-Weather, The Weather Channel and Accuweather.
Actuals: January 18th, High 54, Low 34
January 19th, High 64, Low 40

Grade: C-D

Radiational cooling where it doesn’t belong

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The forecast for Oxnard leaned notably for the marine layer and an onshore flow when it was issued for the weekend of the 7th and 8th. Instead, the off shore Santa Ana breezes were more effective than expected. Sure, one might note the high temperature that hit 73, but that was only a few degrees warmer than the warmest forecast. The real standout was the 41 degree low on Sunday, the 8th. That was up to 10 degrees colder than some forecasts. A qualified SoCal “Brr!”. It wasn’t a great forecast, and Sunday hurt all the way around, but The Weather Channel still gets credit for their first win of the year.
Actuals: Saturday, January 7th – High 60, Low 48
Sunday, January 8th – High 73, Low 41

Grade: C

A strong start to the new year

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The strong start in reference is definitely not a reference to the January posting consistency, but rather how well the National Weather Service handled a challenging forecast in Trenton to start the year. The first round of wet weather of the year slid up the east coast and brought a bit of early morning rain and eventually plummeting temperatures. The NWS threaded this treacherous needle getting only 1 degree of error, and having a proper temperature forecast. A solid start to the new year.
Actuals: January 2nd, .07 inches of rain, High 59, Low 35
January 3rd, High 34, Low 21

Grade: A- C

The last look of the year

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Just before we rolled into 2022, I put together a forecast for Erie, which turned out to be quite sodden. Sure, it was unusually warm for northeastern Pennsylvania as the new year arrived, but a cold front an a system coming out of the Ohio Valley conspired to make sure the warmth was wasted, and it rained for most of the first two days of the year. Temperatures continued to drop through the first two days of the year, and while it was in the mid-50s on New Years Day, it was merely 22 on the 2nd. This forecast, since it started on the 31st counts as the last of 2021, and gets awarded to Weatherbug. Fitting, given how many forecasts they won this year.
Actuals: Jan 1st, .48″ of rain, High 54, Low 37
Jan 2nd, .15″ of rain, High 37, Low 22

Grade: B-D

A very merry forecast

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On Christmas Eve, while all the children were snug in their beds with sugar plums dancing in their heads, we were stirring with a forecast for Sebastian, Florida. It made me pine for the years I spend in Florida, as highs were near 80 on Christmas and the day after, with barely a cloud in the sky. With the way this month has gone, it nearly rates as a Christmas miracle, but Victoria-Weather had the top forecast for Sebastian.
Actuals: Saturday (Christmas), High 80, Low 53
Sunday – High 78, Low 53

Grade: A-C

Winter blows in

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The beginning and middle of the month of December were rough, to say the least. The second major system featuring severe weather started in the northern Plains, and reached the Great Lakes by our December 16th forecast time in Grand Rapids. There was a gust of nearly 60mph, even outside any precipitation on Thursday the 16th. Temperatures, which started in the low 60s on Thursday were ready for a decline, dropping 35 degrees for Friday. Even though the weather was bad, forecasts were generally good. The Weather Channel had the best temperature forecast, but Forecast.io drew level as they were one of only two not to have rain in the forecast.
Actuals, Wednesday December 16th, High 63, Low 35
Thursday, December 17th, High 38, Low 28

Grade: A-C