Near perfection

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Our forecast for Lincoln netted a very good forecast. Given that this happened even with rain on both the 24th and 25th, I can safely say that a forecast that worked out this well would only happen in the summer. An oscillating boundary lingered near Lincoln, with another round of low pressure sneaking to the north, bringing the showers. This is typically a recipe for a botched forecast, this many moving parts, but it’s summertime! Accuweather won the day with only one degree of error, and across the board, there weren’t many problems.
Actuals: June 24th, .31″ of rain, High 82, Low 71
June 25th, .49″ of rain in thunderstorms, High 93, Low 72

Grade: A-B

Destroyed by drops

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Victoria-Weather posted the best forecast for Pueblo a couple of weeks ago, if you conveniently forget a 36 minute stretch on the afternoon of the 12th. V-W topped all other outlets when we just talked about the temperatures. But there was a brief spit of rain on the afternoon of the 12th, which crashed V-W all the way to 6th place, and instead handed a victory to Accuweather and the National Weather Service, who converged on the same score.
Actuals: June 11th, High 91, Low 54
June 12th, .01 inches of rain, High 91, Low 53

Grade: B-D

The misty mountains

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Our forecast in Dalton earlier this month was within a string of potentially stormy days for the southeast. Just because of how the topography works, and the inflow of moisture isn’t as robust further north, away from the Gulf. But the moisture did reach to Dalton, importantly, because not everyone expected it to, not both the 4th and the 5th, and in a couple of cases, not on either day. Rain fall was very light, but a mismanaged precipitation forecast ended up securing the victory for the Weather Service.
Actuals: June 4th, .01″ of rain, High 85, Low 69
June 5th, High .02″ of rain, High 84, Low 65

Grade: B, D

Smoke from a distant fire

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Much of the upper Midwest, in addition to being off to a fairly cool start to June, has also offered up respiratory distress for many of it’s residents. Canadian wild fire smoke has plagued the region, thanks to a northerly regime and some light intermittent showers bringing the smoke aloft down to the surface. The first day of June, coincidentally the second day of our forecast period in Green Bay was the first really impactful day of the smoke for many locations. It has been a bit worse further to the west from Green Bay, but the north wind and diffused sunlight ensured that temperatures didn’t spike despite the sunshine. There was a three way tie at the top of the forecast charts. The National Weather Service and WeatherNation had the same forecast, so naturally were a part of the tie, but Victoria-Weather came about it a different way and still ended up in the three way knot.
Actuals: May 31st, High 73, Low 43
June 1st, High 74, Low 42

Grade: B-C

When May was May

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For those that may not recall, this past week in the mid-Atlantic has been a fairly miserable one by May standards. Temperatures were cool, it has been rainy and there was the looming specter of severe weather. Before all that got underway, there was a forecast for Vineland, New Jersey. It was a warm end to the weekend, with the beginning of the week preparing south Jersey for the looming gloom. The top spot belonged to Victoria-Weather, despite being the only outlet to have rain in the forecast, only to have it not materialize
Actuals: May 11th, High 81, Low 48
May 12th, High 78, Low 51

Grade: A-C

A cooker on the Rio Grande

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I understand that it is only May, and a relatively tame one at that, but 90 degrees is still hot. That’s what was seen in Laredo last weekend, the verifying time of our recent forecast for the border town. Laredo was west of a broad, ambiguous area of low pressure, which meant that they were receiving a north wind, and were still over 90 by Sunday. This went about as well as planned for the meteorologists with a vested interest, and The Weather Channel and WeatherNation tied atop the leaderboard (because they had the same forecast).
Actuals: Saturday High 87, Low 67
Sunday, High 90, Low 64

Grade: A-B

Consistency is key

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Our forecast in Albany proved to be even less exciting than expected. I though there might have been a smattering of light rain or some fog thanks to the pool of moisture still lingering in the southeast, but no, that would have been a little bit too much adventure. Instead, we saw no rain, highs what were the same on both the 25th and 26th and low temperatures that merely wobbled a couple of degrees. In fact, there was so much sameness, WeatherNation and Clime had the same score, and tied for the win.
Actuals: April 25th, High 87, Low 63
April 26th, High 87, Low 65

Grade: A-C

Spring: It’s trying!

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With all the talk of severe weather and heavy rain lately, it’s kind of nice that our forecast in Johnson City last week turned out to be so nice. Well, dry. Temperatures were below freezing on one morning, and crept only to the low 50s the day before, which is decidedly not what you are looking for in spring, trying to bounce back to some vibrancy. It was in the 60s by Wednesday, at least, and with luck, we won’t have to think about February and March again any time soon. The Weather Channel claimed the victory with a very good forecast.
Actuals: Tuesday, High 52, Low 37
Wednesday – High 64, Low 28

Grade: A-C

Let’s hope for a better weekend

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This time last week, we were putting together a forecast for Harrisburg, and it was looking sloppy. Unfortunately, forecasts bore out, with about half an inch of rain wetting the Keystone capital, and most of it came on Saturday, of course. If there was any silver lining, it is that residents probably knew it was coming, given the decent forecast they were given. Probably not exactly the news they were looking for, though. The Weather Channel was the issuer of the best forecast.
Actuals: Saturday, .45″ of rain, High 60, Low 51
Sunday, .07″ of rain, High 55, Low 49

Grade: A-C

Bubbling Springtime

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It was a fairly rainy stretch in Elmira as we began April, as it has been from the Plains to the mountains of the Eastern US, but there was a little bit of texture to the story on Wednesday and Thursday. A warm front brought about a quarter inch or rain over the two days, but perhaps of more pertinence, it also brought a temperature spike of 25 degrees. Spring tried moving into New York this week, and the Weather Service and WeatherNation were there for it. We are in April, and it was the first victory share of the year for WeatherNation.
Actuals: Wednesday, .16 inches of rain, High 51, Low 28
Thursday – .03 inches of rain, High 76, Low 49

Grade: B-D