It’s a …. heat

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One could interpret my headline in two different ways. The … representing a gap where one might typically say a “dry” heat, but it wasn’t that in Midland during our forecast period. Nor was it obnoxiously humid, with dew points dipping into the 50s overnight. Or, you could interpret it as a heat, as in a dead heat, because three outlets drew level this time around. The Weather Channel, Weather Service AND WeatherNation ended with the same score. Two forecasts down this month, and two results with a 4 way then a 3 way tie.
Actuals: August 14th, High 99, Low 74
August 15th, High 96, Low 78

Grade: A=B

Everyone is invited!

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It was a hot time in Pine Bluff on the 7th and 8th of the month. Of course, that is when we put together our forecast for the city, one that resulted in temperatures in the mid to upper 90s during the day, and temps that wouldn’t cool out of the mid 70s overnight. Uncomfortable, to be sure, but all outlets were pretty comfortable with each other’s forecast. There was a 4 way tie at the top, and only three degrees of difference separating top and bottom. It was The Weather Channel, Weather Service, WeatherNation and Clime all conglomerating at the top.
Actuals: August 7th, High 94, Low 73
August 8th, High 97, Low 76

Grade: B-C

Marine Layer consistency

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It gets hot and stays hot in the central valleys of California, but when you are butted up against the coast, on the west side of the Coastal Range, and without a corridor of wind form the Great Basin, it stays fairly cool, with clouds and sometimes, but not in the case of San Luis Obispo, a stray shower within the fog. Like I said, it was dry, and quite comfortable for our forecast at the end of July into the beginning of August. The Weather Service and WeatherNation drew level for the forecast, and anyone who strayed too far from the mid-70s ended up looking foolish.
Actuals: July 31st, High 75, Low 56
August 1st, High 73, Low 54

Grade: A – D

Succumbing to the storms

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The end of July and beginning of August was a particularly stormy time for the north central US. It wasn’t all bad though, because it sure wiped out the heat wave that had buffeted the country. In Danville, temperatures on the 30th were near 90. After storms rolled through overnight, the 31st saw a high temperature of only 75. The dew point was still fairly warm, but that’s significantly more comfortable (were it not for the lingering smoke from the Canadian wildfires.) Never fear, summer isn’t over yet, and it is getting hot once again. The Weather Channel never cooled off, and won their third forecast in a row.
Actuals: July 30th, .02″ of rain, High 89, Low 69
July 31st, .29″ of rain, High 75, Low 64

Grade: A-C

Pretty chilly, actually

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We put together a forecast for Phoenix in the middle of the month, and we were looking for a very hot couple of days in Arizona. Fortunately for local residents, it was colder than expected by all outlets on both the 14th and 15th! That’s right, it was only 106 on both days! The Weather Service won the day.
Actuals: July 14th, High 106, Low 91
July 15th, High 106, Low 88

Grade B-C

A city and a forecast underwater

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The thing about summer thunderstorms is that they are often slowly paced and if there is any sort of larger scale forcing, the storms can really dump the rain. That happened in Fort Smith, which was ultimately brought the misfortune of constant clouds and steady thunderstorms through the day on July 8th. Not only did this soak the city, but the highs in the 90s were nowhere to be found. Highs in the 80s were nowhere to be found, for that matter. The steady threat of storms allowed highs only to reach 78 on that Tuesday. It was a much cooler day than expected, and particularly cooler than most of Arkansas, but they did get an inch and a half for rain. It a a tough forecast overall, but NWS came through the best, having the coolest numbers for the 8th.
Actuals: July 7th, .18″ of rain High 95, Low 75
July 8th: 1.67″ of rain, High 78, Low 72

Grade: C-D

Untouched

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A tough thing about summer when scattered showers or storms are in the forecast, is that if you have them in and they don’t happen, your temperature forecast is likely to be pretty far off as well. This was the case in Sandusky at the end of June, when everyone had showers and storms in the forecast for both Thursday and Friday. Didn’t happen save for a splash on Thursday the 26th, and temperatures soared into the 90s, leaving everyone with frightful numbers. Clime was the warmest outlet, and ended up securing the easy victory. Way to hedge your bets, Clime!
Actuals: June 26th, .01 inches of rain, High 91, Low 75
June 27th, High 93, Low 73

Grade: B-C

Near perfection

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Our forecast for Lincoln netted a very good forecast. Given that this happened even with rain on both the 24th and 25th, I can safely say that a forecast that worked out this well would only happen in the summer. An oscillating boundary lingered near Lincoln, with another round of low pressure sneaking to the north, bringing the showers. This is typically a recipe for a botched forecast, this many moving parts, but it’s summertime! Accuweather won the day with only one degree of error, and across the board, there weren’t many problems.
Actuals: June 24th, .31″ of rain, High 82, Low 71
June 25th, .49″ of rain in thunderstorms, High 93, Low 72

Grade: A-B

Destroyed by drops

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Victoria-Weather posted the best forecast for Pueblo a couple of weeks ago, if you conveniently forget a 36 minute stretch on the afternoon of the 12th. V-W topped all other outlets when we just talked about the temperatures. But there was a brief spit of rain on the afternoon of the 12th, which crashed V-W all the way to 6th place, and instead handed a victory to Accuweather and the National Weather Service, who converged on the same score.
Actuals: June 11th, High 91, Low 54
June 12th, .01 inches of rain, High 91, Low 53

Grade: B-D

The misty mountains

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Our forecast in Dalton earlier this month was within a string of potentially stormy days for the southeast. Just because of how the topography works, and the inflow of moisture isn’t as robust further north, away from the Gulf. But the moisture did reach to Dalton, importantly, because not everyone expected it to, not both the 4th and the 5th, and in a couple of cases, not on either day. Rain fall was very light, but a mismanaged precipitation forecast ended up securing the victory for the Weather Service.
Actuals: June 4th, .01″ of rain, High 85, Low 69
June 5th, High .02″ of rain, High 84, Low 65

Grade: B, D