A cool spot

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On back to back verifications, we’ve had forecasts that overestimated forecast highs. Because of wind off San Pablo Bay, Napa was colder than forecasts expected earlier this week, and now in Johnstown, the forecast highs were also on the lower side. This time thanks to topography and clouds that settled into the valleys surrounding the Alleghenies. The difference between Johnstown and Napa is that two outlets embraced this possibility. Weatherbug took another victory, but Victoria-Weather wasn’t far behind.
Actuals: Friday, High 66, Low 52
Saturday – Rain reported, not measured, High 66, Low 54

Grade B-D

Brisk Bay Breezes bring busts

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

The mountains and waterways of coastal California can lead to a need for microclimate forecasting. This seemed to be the case in Napa, where, sure, a ridge built in, but the southwest winds off San Pablo Bay, often gusting to 20mph, held sway. High temperatures never crossed into the 80s, despite there not being a single forecast lower than 81 degrees. As is typically the case when things skewed towards the low side, Weatherbug was the top forecaster, and it wasn’t particularly close.
Actuals: Tuesday – High 79, Low 51
Wednesday – High 79, Low 56

Grade: B-C

Downplaying

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Never sell the SPC short, I will stay that. In our forecast for Sioux Falls, there were only a couple of mentions of severe weather in the forecast last weekend, from ourselves and Accuweather. Meanwhile, Sioux Falls was included in the severe outlook both Saturday and Sunday, and it verified, or did awfully close to town. Saturday had hail, 2 inches in diameter just outside of town. No rain was actually reported in Sioux Falls, however, reflecting the isolated nature of the storms. Sunday was a soaker, with hail (though not as large) and strong winds around town. The low temperature forecasts were volatile, and the rain on Sunday ensured a colder day than expected, so the forecast didn’t turn out great for anyone. Weathernation sneaked in by accurately avoiding rain on Saturday and having a cool low on Sunday.
Actuals: Saturday – 92, Low 67
Sunday – .61 inches of rain, High 80, Low 61

Grade: C-D

Can’t beat the heat

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Nothing is quite like the Texas sun beating down on you. Our forecasts didn’t quite anticipate how hot that sun could get when we forecast for Tyler, a town that looked like it was going to be in the aftermath of a cold front for a couple of days. Warming was anticipated, though not quite to the degree it was actually seen. Temperatures topped 90 on Friday, which is just a little too warm for sane people, and several degrees higher than what forecasts called for. The Weather Channel nabbed the top spot for the day, staying warm throughout their forecast period.
Actuals: Thursday, High 88, Low 58
Friday – High 91, Low 62

Grade: C

Hot flashes

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It’s been a cool stretch of rain soaked weather for a lot of the interior part of the country, from the Great Lakes to the Plains. Ah, but how we forget how warm it got at the end of last week. Kokomo saw temperatures that nearly hit 90 on Friday. In a bit of good news, forecasts were fairly competent across the board, leading to a three way tie between Victoria-Weather, Weatherbug and Forecast.io. WeatherNation would have been in good shape, had they not fat fingered the low forecast for Friday.
Actuals: Thursday – High 81, Low 61
Friday – High 88, Low 66

Grade: B-C

Lake Superior ruins a forecast

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Strong storms and rain made for a pretty eventful week last week in the north central United States. If eventful doesn’t work for you, then perhaps Duluth is the right town for you. With forecasts in the low 70s on the 13th and showers and storms in the forecast, Lake Superior guffawed and sent low level moisture, fog and clouds into the city. Temperatures didn’t even get out of the 40s. As a result, the warm nights were not seen either, and the low temperature on the 14th, which ultimately did see sun and a return to the 70s, dipped to the 30s when low 50s were expected. It was a completely busted forecast, but Accuweather was the least terrible of a rotten forecast.
Actuals: May 13th – .24 inches of rain, high 48, Low 41
May 14th – High 73, Low 39

Grade: F

A comedy of errors

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I was shocked that after a long, healthy run, WeatherNation was on the fritz when we forecast for Spokane. I was even more shocked when I went to verify the forecast, and saw that I had left the Weather Service’s forecast off the post. Third, when verifying, I saw that our verification site uses a downtown site — as it should — rather than Spokane International Airport, which is to the west of town. Victoria-Weather would have at least secured a better forecast showing. Instead, it was The Weather Channel who locked up a victory of all sites that showed up.
Actuals: Tuesday – High 59, Low 39
Friday – High 61, Low 37

Grade: A-C

Is this spring?

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If you talk to a lot of people in the eastern 2/3rds of the country, they lament the demise of spring. It goes from too cold to too hot in the span of a couple of days, never lingering on the “ideal” number. Of course, what is ideal is personal to every individual. Don’t talk to me until it is at least 80. Some people appreciate cooler numbers, like the highs in the low 60s in San Jose early this week. Too chilly for me. On the “pre-spring” side of things, frankly. The Weather Service and WeatherNation will have no problem saying that they were closest to the mark, spring or not, for our forecast there.
Actuals: Monday, High 62, Low 46
Tuesday, High 62, Low 41

Grade: A-B

Inescapable gloom

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It’s been a long, tough end to the cold season in the Upper Midwest for fans of warmer conditions. May started with more bad news for sunbathers of Omaha. After a storm system dipped south of Nebraska’s largest town, the clear air never forced its way in. Instead, the cold air behind the system settled in, and there was no way to heat it up, thanks to a persistent layer of clouds that lasted through the forecast period. Generally speaking, forecast outlets were more optimistic than what the situation called for. Weatherbug tends to have the chilliest forecasts, and the weather in Omaha played to their advantage on this occasion.
Actuals: Tuesday, .06″ of rain, High 53, Low 41
Wednesday – High 54, Low 48

Grade: C-D

Nice shooting

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have you ever seen those paper targets after really good shots are done, and the holes are all pretty close to the center of the target? That was like our forecast in Baltimore. Everyone got an A on the forecast rating, thanks to high pressure, and no funny business. Clouds rolled in last Monday exactly as they were supposed to. The top forecast went to Weatherbug, who was nearly spot on.
Actuals: April 25th, High 78, low 53
April 26th, Hight 69, Low 53

Grade: A