from Victoria-Weather
The end of last week in Abilene didn’t promise many changes. A slow, slow moving boundary was sinking towards the Lone Star State, but ultimately, no changes were ever seen in Abilene. Like, none. It was 101 for a high, 80 for a low on each day of our verification, with nary a drop of rain. The Weather Channel and WeatherNation secured a tie for the verification.
Actuals: Thursday – High 101, Low 80
Friday – High 101, Low 80
Grade: A-B
It’s been a tough week in eastern Kentucky, as it became a focal point for heavy rain as a slow moving boundary left even slower moving torrents of rain across the state, ultimately leaving dozens dead in flash flooding, and countless more with their lives turned upside down. The news from the area continues to get worse as we find out more, and we continue to keep residents in our thoughts.
Often when rain becomes centered on one spot, as it did in Kentucky, the threat for scattered showers away from that main area diminishes. Such was the case on Tuesday and Wednesday, when Atlanta, which had been forecast for some light showers on either of those two days, successfully avoided precipitation. Temperatures climbed a couple of degrees warmer than anyone had, but it was a generally tightly clustered verification. The Weather Channel and WeatherNation were strange bedfellows, tying for the top spot.
Actuals: Tuesday – High 91, Low 75
Wednesday – High 92, Low 75
Grade: B-C
The forecast for Baltimore proved to be fairly easy to wrap our heads around. The end of the week was going to be hot, and generally free of any atmospheric changes. Mission accomplished! Everyone came in between 3 and 5 degrees of error, and there was no precipitation to worry about, so everyone can feel good about their day. Accuweather, the Weather Service and Weather Nation can feel just a little better about it though.
Actuals: Friday – High 95, Low 74
Saturday – High 97, Low 77
Grade: A
There is blistering heat across the planet this week. The United Kingdom is reaching temperatures never seen in recorded history for the British Isles. It reached 115 in Tulsa yesterday. Last week’s 99 and 100 in Redding don’t stand out quite as impressively under that light, do they? Accuweather and WeatherNation had top forecasts for the city, and even those forecasts were a little bit warmer than what actually transpired. *Yawn*
Actuals: Wednesday – High 99, Low 71
Thursday – High 100, Low 65
Grade: B-C
That first weekend after the 4th of July is the first intensively “summer” weekend of the year. Laze around, if you want to, go to the lake or the cabin or whatever it is that you do. That first weekend in Manchester was pretty great. Temperatures were in the 80s, and an inactive cold front Friday into Saturday morning brought dew points down a little bit, and kept it from getting uncomfortable. Victoria-Weather and Forecast.io came together for the top forecast, hedging warmer for highs and cooler for lows.
Actuals: Friday 7/8 – High 86, Low 65
Saturday 7/9 – High 82, Low 61
Grade: A – B
We put together a forecast for Milwaukee shortly after the 4th of July, and it was not an altogether summerly forecast. Last Thursday was plenty warm, but a weak wave rippling through the region Friday made for a decidedly different day than one would expect from July. The clouds and light rain kept temperatures from rising above 72. Not exactly anyone’s idea of a hot Friday night. Forecast outlets generally didn’t want to bear the bad news that the first Friday of July wouldn’t be so wonderful, so it was the emotionless computers at Forecast.io that claimed victory.
Actuals: Thursday – High 80, Low 64
Friday – .05 inches of rain, High 72, Low 66
Grade: A-C
Earlier, we posted a verification for Dubuque, in which thunderstorms showed up and surprised some of us. Well, this time around, a handful of outlets called for rain in Roanoke, and it never happened. The lingering moisture prevented low temperatures from cooling off too much, but otherwise, the lack of clouds or rain meant high temperatures were near 90. The warmer forecasts held the day, and Victoria-Weather and The Weather Channel had the exact same forecast, which was the winner today.
Actuals: Friday, High 88, Low 69
Saturday – High 89, Low 67
Grade: A-B
We have taken a bit of a hiatus this past week thanks to illness sweeping through the family, but we are back! Speaking of unwanted things sweeping through an area, let’s talk about Dubuque last week. Monday and Tuesday were hot days, and correctly forecast as such, but then, an interesting thing happened on Tuesday. Some outlets had thunderstorms on Tuesday, and some did not. The storms indeed showed up, but those stormy forecasters thought they would be fueled by hotter temperatures, which was not the case. Generally speaking, the best temperature forecasts belonged to those that kept Dubuque dry, but Weatherbug surpassed other outlets by having the best temperature forecast of outlets that forecast rain. It’s fitting that Weatherbug will claim victory, as the storms they successfully forecast for actually produced some severe weather in Eastern Iowa, and 55mph wind gusts in Dubuque.
Actuals: Monday, June 20 – High 91, Low 61
Tuesday – .1 inches of rain in thunderstorms, High 95, Low 70
Grade: B-C
One thing that I have come to notice about the strong area of low pressure that shot north through the Plains and into Canada is that the storm activity has been much higher than anticipated. Oh, and the heat also. It’s been warm! It was the storms that were the story in Grand Forks, however. They were not at all anticipated in any of the forecasts from the various outlets, though everyone thought the passing warm front would introduce some clouds on Saturday. The biggest surprise was that after the storms, albeit isolated, a lot of dust was kicked up in Grand Forks. The afternoon saw 2 mile visibilities thanks to the 35-40mph wind associated with the system (remember how I said it’s always windy there?), which prevented temperatures from getting out of the lower 80s, and busting forecasts across the board. It was a grimy, miserable way to spend the first day of Father’s Day weekend. Accuweather had a narrow victory, hitting on almost everything, but missing on the rain and the Saturday high.
Actuals: Friday, High 82, Low 54
Saturday – Storms reported, not measured, High 83, Low 62
Grade: C-D
Not only was the weather sweltering in Shreveport this week, but it stayed hot overnight, which is the worst. Morning lows of 80 meant that air conditioners were overworked, and forecasts were off, because every outlet predicted cooler temperatures by a handful of degrees. The high temperatures, mercifully, were on the cool end of our forecasts, but that still meant mid to upper 90s. This forecast combo led to a very tight race, and a three way tie at the top, with Victoria-Weather, Accuweather and Forecast.io elevating slightly above.
Actuals: Wednesday, High 96, Low 78
Thursday – High 97, Low 80
Grade: B