Everything is bigger in Texas

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Even, unfortunately, the mistakes are bigger in Texas. Temperature behind last week’s system did not react quite how anyone had anticipated in Dallas. Every outlet thought it would be as cool as freezing, or nearly there on the 18th, last Thursday, and it only dipped as low as 40. This warmer base meant that the high on Friday was also significantly warmer than expected as well, with the midnight high coming in at 45, when nobody expected anything better than the mid-30s. It wasn’t a good forecast, for sure, but The Weather Channel ultimately came away with the top score.
Actuals: Thursday – High 58, Low 40
Friday – High 45, Low 26

Grade: C

Gales of the Great Lakes

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While the rest of the country was able to dry out after a system moved through the middle of the country about this time last week, Lansing was left in a lurch. After the warm start to the season, Lake Michigan still has open water, and deep cold pool with west winds whipping across the Lake settled in. The fetch wasn’t deep enough to substantively affect Lansing, but overcast and cold temperatures still enveloped the capital city. There were flurries at times both days, which ultimately awarded the top forecast to the Weather Service and WeatherNation.
Actuals: January 15th, .01 inches of moisture in snow, High 11, Low -4
January 16th, .01 inches of moisture in snow, High 9, Low 2

Grade: B-C

Post Frontal Florence

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During last week’s version of the interminable series of storm systems this month, we visited Florence after a line of thunderstorms had brought severe weather to the city earlier in the day. There was a little bit of light rain that trailed the line that arrived a little bit after midnight that altered the verification a bit, but aside from that, post frontal forecasting is pretty easy. Victoria-Weather earned our first forecast W of the year, up against strong competition.
Actuals: Wednesday January 10th, .03 inches of rain High 52, Low 37
Thursday, January 11th, High 57, Low 33

Grade B-C

The Wasatch, the Gulf of Alaska and the Great Basin

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Sometimes, we all need a little bit of reality to bring us back to earth. After a strong forecast to start the year in New York, it didn’t go quite that well in Logan. The various topographies of the northwestern US and the proclivity for cyclonic development in the Gulf of Alaska made for a rough day of forecasting. The primary cause of the misguided forecast were the low temperatures that arose on Monday the 8th. Well, that and how warm it got on Tuesday. Oh, and for many, the snow that lasted into Monday morning when many thought there would be a longer break. I guess there were a few issues. On a more positive note, there was a tie at the top between The Weather Channel, Accuweather and the National Weather Service.
Actuals: Monday, January 8th -.03″ of precipitation in snow, High 25, Low 2
Tuesday – .04″ of precipitation in snow, High 36, Low 11

Grade: D

Wintry mix, but light on the winter

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New York is obviously the center of the universe, so it was nice that round one of our winter weather week was more problematic for points outside of the Big Apple. Close, but not in the city itself, especially during out forecast. There was a wintry mix in the afternoon on Saturday, but the winter portion of the mix only lasted for a couple of hours in Manhattan. Several inches, fell north of town, and more than a foot came to some of the mountains of Pennsylvania. It was a strong start to the year for the Weather Channel, who netted the forecast victory.
Actuals: Friday – High 41, Low 28
Saturday – Rain and snow, not measured, High 39, Low 32

Grade: A-C

Exhibition Verification

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Only rarely are we able to post a forecast with no bearing on our annual and monthly verification competitions, so when I posted the forecast for Kansas City just a couple of days before the new year, I wanted to do something a little differently. I openly posted the forecast for Kansas City International Airport, while the other outlets had forecasts for the city of Kansas City, Missouri, which is verified downtown. As expected, it was cooler out away from the city, at the airport. The 6 outlets that forecast for downtown were almost all exactly the same in their verification, while my forecast at the airport was a hair removed from the downtown forecasters. Temperature forcing aside, it was still high pressure, and not much existed to sway anyone in any particular direction.
Actuals: (Downtown) Sunday – High 36, Low 30
Monday – High 39, Low 27

Actuals (Airport) Sunday – High 33, Low 28
Monday – High 36, Low 22

Grade: B

Coming together

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For the last verification of 2023, all of our forecasters consolidated around the same scores for Macon. There were no trends, to speak of, really. Aside from the Thursday high, every forecast verification had some values warmer and lower than what it turned out to be. That Thursday high was a bit warmer than anyone had projected, but not by much. So with everyone appropriately circling the mark, it just came down to who was the closest the most, and there wasn’t a lot to separate the top from the bottom. Accuweather will get credit for the top forecast for the day.
Actuals: Thursday – High 62, Low 43
Friday – High 50, Low 35

Grade: A-B

A mysterious verification

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Sometimes, I cause my own problems. I post something so late that the “tomorrow” of the forecast is actually the “today” of the post time. Sometimes, the issue is that the closest NWS verification facility doesn’t have a 24 hour schedule for observations. Both of these things happened in Huntsville, which made finding the information I needed to properly assess the forecast a bit more challenging. I used Huntsville International for my observations, rather than the Redstone Arsenal, which is closer to downtown, and figured out my own temporal confusions. In end the weather wasn’t particularly dynamic, and everyone assessed an early week cooldown correctly when we put together the forecast Sunday night — er, early morning on Monday. Victoria-Weather, despite our other issues, had the top forecast.
Actuals: Monday, the 18th, High 52, Low 32
Tuesday, the 19th, High 46, Low 25

Grade: B-C

Temperatures don’t dip so dramatically

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We looked at Flagstaff in the last week of November, and found that temperatures were not what we would expect when thinking of Arizona. High temperatures in northern Arizona were about what the forecasters expected, but they were off the mark when we looked at the lows. Most outlets had the low dropping into the teens, but on the 27th and 28th, they were actually only in the mid 20s. Sure, not what you expect in Arizona, but also not quite as cold as meteorologists expected. Ironically, Weatherbug, who tends to skew towards the cooler side, ended up with the best forecast on a day where things were warmer than anticipated.
Actuals: Monday November 27th, High 40, Low 26
Tuesday November 28th, High 46, Low 20

Grade: A – C

Thrown out of equilibrium

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In the transitional seasons, air masses are much more different from one another. Cold air is significantly colder than the air it replaces in the spring and fall, and not as much in the summer or winter. And because the sun angle is lower, having a few clouds can really affect the temperature more than they might in the summer. All this is to say is in the fall, you had better have your timing right. In Monroe, Michigan last month, the timing for a wave moving through as a little off. Clouds filtered in on Sunday the 19th early in the day and suppressed high temperatures. A system rising from the south central US was moving more quickly than expected, and brought not only rain but a warm front that meant temperatures ended up warmer than anticipated. All in all, it wasn’t a well spotted forecast for anyone, but Accuweather had the best temperature forecast and was one of the outlets that correctly had rain on Monday.
Actuals: Sunday, November 20th, High 44, Low 34
Monday, November 21st, .32″ of rain, High 49, Low 39

Grade: C-D