There is a big, sloppy tropical feature blasting through the Canadian Maritimes today. Most of Canada is in the throes of a drought that has brough fires to much of the country and smoke to much of the continent. Most of Canada is in a drought, except for the Canadian Maritimes.

Of further note, the rain is falling on Friday morning instead of over the weekend as well! Red letter day in Minneapolis-St. Paul!

I will discuss this in greater detail tomorrow, but I want you to wake up with this knowledge. Hurricane Lee is not going to landfall in the States. I would worry more about that in Nova Scotia. Additionally, this does not mean that US interests on the coast are in the clear. As Lee heads to the north, be wary of rip currents and high surf as the stom heads north.

To give you an idea of the weather scenario we are in right now, I was just on a conference call with people from many parts of the country. One of the attendees from Texas was lamenting the triple digit heat that continues to boil Texans.

Here in Minnesota, I had to wear a light jacket this morning. Fall is coming, people. Eventually.

Update: Brr!

After we were looking forward to a hot couple of weeks for really most of the country, today, we can look at the outlook and see cooler air is on the horizon. Let’s hope that the cool down comes entirely at the hands of an advancing cold front and not Hurricane Lee. (I should note that it is NOT likely to be the result of Lee)

Lee, presently in the North Atlantic, already looking for a trip to the Eastern Seaboard, is a big, scary storm. He’s going to be a Cat 4 before all is said and done, and a Cat 5 is not out of the question. Fortunately, this is the forecast map for Saturday.

That coastal feature should be just enough to shunt Lee away from the coast. Remember that if you are lamenting the weekend rain out East this weekend.

We’ve spent some time looking at the temperature trends for September, including some outlooks for the temperature over the next few weeks. Also illustrative, though, is the severe weather outlook. Much cooler weather is coming behind the severe weather.

Additionally, with crops still in the ground, if things get cooler and clearer pretty quick, all that moisture will lead to some foggy mornings, further helping keep temperatures in check. It’s right around the corner.

Even the Duluth WFO is posting things like this about the heat.

Thunderstorms are coming to the area Tuesday night. Expect an abrupt end to the heat wave.

Idalia looks like she will make landfall tomorrow at about the spot that was expected before it even had a name. Initial model guidance wasn’t as aggressive on the storm’s intensification as the NHC was, so credit as always to the meteorologists, but here is the good news:

The Big Bend are of Florida is fairly sparsely populated. Storm surge, thanks to the geography of the region, will be quite high for Cedar Key north and westward, but there aren’t a lot of beachfront communities in the area. Not to say there aren’t any, but the most costly part of this storm will not be the surge, even though it will be impressive.

Instead, my biggest concern is the flash flooding that may come to places like Live Oak, Valdosta and Wenatchee. Sporadic tornadoes are also a big concern, as they usually are with landfalling hurricanes.

Idalia is a healthy storm, and will be memorable for those it impacts. The only reason this storm isn’t more fearsome is because it found the part of the Florida Coast that hasn’t been fully developed.