Idalia looks like she will make landfall tomorrow at about the spot that was expected before it even had a name. Initial model guidance wasn’t as aggressive on the storm’s intensification as the NHC was, so credit as always to the meteorologists, but here is the good news:

The Big Bend are of Florida is fairly sparsely populated. Storm surge, thanks to the geography of the region, will be quite high for Cedar Key north and westward, but there aren’t a lot of beachfront communities in the area. Not to say there aren’t any, but the most costly part of this storm will not be the surge, even though it will be impressive.

Instead, my biggest concern is the flash flooding that may come to places like Live Oak, Valdosta and Wenatchee. Sporadic tornadoes are also a big concern, as they usually are with landfalling hurricanes.

Idalia is a healthy storm, and will be memorable for those it impacts. The only reason this storm isn’t more fearsome is because it found the part of the Florida Coast that hasn’t been fully developed.