Thus far, the biggest tropical story in the Continental US surrounded the remnants of Beryl after it had done it’s worst in the Caribbean, and Debby, which was more notorious for lingering in the southeast than for being particularly strong. Now, Ernesto took a swipe at Bermuda and has left us with nothing to monitor in the Atlantic Basin.

Saharan sands are blowing off of the African continent, and getting into the trade winds, inhibiting cyclonic development. The NHC foresees no tropical development for at least the next 48 hours, and the GFS – by no means meteorological gospel – doesn’t really show anything in the area until around Labor Day, nearly two weeks from today.

That’s a real slow stretch in a season that was promised to be very active, particularly since the peak of hurricane season is typically in early September. It seems like this might be a precursor for saying that the season may not be as busy as we believed at the outset, but it is not. Even with the data we have on hand, and access to the freshest short term modeling, the Hurricane Center’s latest outlook came out, and didn’t go easy on the number of tropical storms.

There will still be a week or so from the end of the GFS run to the traditional “peak” of the season. After this peak, the oceanic temperature doesn’t immediately fall off. The season begins in June, and has been creeping earlier. As a result, the season still goes another couple of months, until November. Plenty of time, and with the very warm Atlantic, plenty of fuel still left for storms.

Enjoy the last bit of summer, but remember that by Labor Day, things may be getting pretty hairy in the Caribbean once again.

Undoubtedly, in the last 10 years or so, there has been an increase in hurricane headlines. Part of this is because of our own unconscious bias. The US went for about a decade without a landfalling hurricane, which is pretty much absurd, and now that the rate of American landfall is ticking up, it feels like it is happening all the time.

And of course, with alarm bells ringing on the increasing heat in the ocean, we are acutely aware that the hurricane season is longer than it ever used to be. Sure, there are more large hurricanes making landfall in the US recently, and the season has become longer over the last couple of decades, but this doesn’t fully translate the issue.

As I said, we had a long lull after Katrina, where the US was spared, so an uptick in landfalling storms was always going to seem worse than it had been in recent memory, even if it is more a correction to what is a normal landfall rate. I think the misperception, however, is that we are having a bunch of strong storms regularly arriving on US Shores, when that is not really the case.

One thing is true about tropical storms is that they are being infused with more moisture, and as a result are bringing more rain. Every storm you see now has a greater tendency to produce flash flooding. This is partly being seen in Debby, where parts of the Carolinas and Georgia have been inundated. Debby wasn’t a particularly strong storm, but she was sure a soaker.

This is where the longer season comes into play a bit. As we know, the transition seasons of spring and fall tend to have the most dramatic weather over the continental United States. The jet dives south and brings active cold and warm fronts that make life a bit more interesting for everyone. Historically, the hurricane season is most active in September, just when things get more interesting with subtropical weather, and these cold fronts usher remnant hurricanes off into the north Atlantic.

In August, the dog days of summer, there are no big jet troughs or cold fronts, and storms are left to dawdle. Debby has been such a danger because she’s not been forced offshore. Harvey was an August storm, and he had the same issue 7 years ago. Dawdling. Storms are carrying more moisture, and early season storms especially are less likely to be kept moving, and flash flooding is on the rise with tropical storms. Expect this trend to continue for the long term.

July was a month heavy on Bloomingtons, but was fortunately not as robust in weather headlines as we have come to expect in the summer. Sure, we’ve certainly had some heat, rain, storms and everything that comes along with the summer, but it wasn’t quite as horrific as the last few years. Baby steps. The Weather Channel took the crown in the first month of the second half of the year.

Outlet	Forecast Wins (year)
The Weather Channel	9.82
Victoria-Weather	7.48
WeatherNation	5.83
Accuweather	3.16
Clime	3
Weatherbug	2
National Weather Service	1.49

Finally, the Western US was inundated with a drought quenching rain throughout the winter and into the spring. It was a profound relief for a part of the world that had a drought for so long, and endured a threat for fires every summer for years, and a relief for cynical newscasters who didn’t want viewers to think they were watching reruns every year.

And yet here we are again, buffeted by wild fire stories. Granted, they aren’t as widespread, either the fires or the stories, but they are cropping up again. The stories aren’t as prevalent because the threat to life and property hasn’t been as immediate, and the fires aren’t quite as encompassing because the environment is a bit less dry than it’s been in years.

But even in the best years, fires are always possible out west. Just because the winter was wet doesn’t mean that holds for the summer. There is ground water, but it’s always dry in the summer out west. One thing that compounds the threat is that it’s also extremely warm. The heat helps to dry things out and create more fuel to the fires.

Additionally, we are in the midst of the monsoon season in the intermountain west. While we associate the word monsoon with the inundating rains of south Asia, in the western US, it means widespread thunderstorms, but those storms may not necessarily come with rain. Lightning with these storms has historically been the natural cause of wildfires, and it is in full force again this summer.

The dog days are here. and even though some relief is coming for the coast, the Rockies will stay hot, dry and favorable for thunderstorms and wildfires.

Hurricane Beryl continues to roil through the Ohio Valley as a weak area of low pressure. There is still some threat for severe weather because of the storm, but her most ominous days are behind her. The Lesser Antilles have already been recovering for a week!

Also in the last few days, there has been a minor change here at the site. You may notice the icon at the top of your web browser has changed. I learned that another weather provider uses a logo that is very similar to the old orange on black that I used. Now, it is a white V a white to blue gradient, like clouds in the sky. If you saw that and were confused, that is the explanation.

That is also the logo I will use if the June forecaster of the month news hits the mainstream. We went as far away as Alaska with our forecasts this month, but the winner is close to home. It’s us, if that wasn’t already abundantly clear.

Outlet	Forecast Wins (year)
The Weather Channel	8.82
Victoria-Weather	7.48
WeatherNation	3.83
Accuweather	3.16
Clime	3
National Weather Service	1.49
Weatherbug	1

I mentioned the rain that is forecast to come this week, painting a particular target on eastern Iowa, southeast Minnesota and western Wisconsin in my last update. Fortunately, the overlap with areas that have already seen too much rain this summer is not perfect. But there is still overlap, and the rain has caused some mighty problems for areas from the Siouxland of Iowa, South Dakota and Nebraska northeast through south central Minnesota.

In southeastern South Dakota, McCook Lake, an unconnected oxbow lake suddenly had water flowing into it from runoff and redirected flow, causing it to overspill its bank, and destroying property north of Sioux City. The rising water damaged cropland from Nebraska and South Dakota east through northwest Iowa and southwestern Minnesota. The towns of Windom, Jackson and Waterville were underwater, because of the Des Moines River in Windom and Jackson, and the Cannon River in Waterville. The above video shows the scene in the south Twin Cities metro, where Shakopee’s Valley Fair Amusement Park had to close some rides and lost use of their parking lot because the Minnesota has spilled its banks. And of course, we have all seen video of the rising water opting to circumvent the Rapidan Dam, with disastrous regional effects.

Fortunately, it was a dry weekend. Unfortunately, the week ahead doesn’t look that way. A few more successive waves in the northern Plains look to keep things cool and wet. The bullseye for wet weather is shifted a bit to the east, so the smaller creeks and rivers may not see repeat flood risks, but most of these waterways flow in the same direction. Eventually, there may be concern for Mississippi River towns from the Twin Cities on south.

It’s certainly been a minute since we checked in on the status of our top forecasters for the months and the year. It’s too bad because especially in April, the news was good for Victoria-Weather. It was a well contested month by all parties, but Victoria-Weather ended up comfortably surpassing our competitors.

We had a few more stops on the forecast train in May, which will allow our champion, Accuweather, to take a little bit more credit for the month. Not to toot our own horns, but Victoria-Weather came in second in May as well. A solid spring, but what’s the story for the year?

Outlet	Forecast Wins (year)
The Weather Channel	8.82
Victoria-Weather	5.48
WeatherNation	2.83
Accuweather	2.66
Clime	2.5
National Weather Service	1.49
Weatherbug	1

A lot of the attention for the week, including on this site, has revolved around the eclipse and whether or not we will be able to view it, even if we are in the axis of totality. The story for the rest of the week will follow a lot of the same territory, but will instead surround the threat for tornadoes and other severe weather.

A sharp upper level trough is moved into the Plains yesterday and isn’t really related to the inclement weather obscuring the sky during the eclipse. As it moved in, surface low pressure attempted to organize in west Texas that afternoon and evening. While access to moisture was be limited, access to potential energy was not.

In a scenario like this, you might see some “LP” or Low Precipitation supercells, which are the type that produce the photogenic tornadoes moving through open fields that you see in textbooks. The feature didn’t have enough tight circulation to introduce a bunch of tornadoes, but the updrafts were there, and even without much rain falling, we saw some jumbo sized hail.

It will be more of the same today, but with the bullseye shifted to east Texas and western Louisiana. Additionally, the threat for tornadoes, though perhaps not gigantic twisters, will increase in this area as the low gets more focused and better moisture. We can see with the SPC activity loop that there are a couple of watches out already, and the threat for severe weather today is increasing

This negative trend will continue through the heart of Dixie Alley on Wednesday, with tornadoes and strong winds possible through Mississippi, and again on Thursday in Alabama, Georgia and north Florida. Especially by tomorrow, the ingredients will be perfectly meshed for a potentially high end severe weather event. There is a chance to see a major tornado outbreak in the moderate risk region for severe weather outlook, which include Baton Rouge, Jackson and the parts of Dixie Alley that are far too accustomed to this kind of weather.

One thing that we know for sure about next week, is that for a long track of the eastern US, the moon will obfuscate the sun in the mid-afternoon. The eclipse is happening, and we’ve long known where the eclipse was happening.

Every forecast you see usually comes with a couple of words spared for the level of overcast on a given day. There is almost no brainpower expended on this process for most meteorologists that I know. Essentially, my go to method is to determine flow if you are near the sea, and proximity to an area of inclement weather. It works out well enough, and is frankly not something that many people follow up on.

So with that in mind, just know that I and most other weather people are flexing a muscle that we don’t often exercise when discussing the potential visibility of the celestial event of the year. I can state with some more knowledge that there will be an area of low pressure over the Upper Midwest that is quite occluded. At the time of the eclipse, the secondary low will be over the eastern Great Lakes, and the boundary will be along a line roughly from Pittsburgh to Houston.

Along that line, in particular, expect some clouds, and it will probably be a little dicey south of that boundary with moisture spilling into the region. The low over the Great Lakes, as well, will likely be more cloudy than not. Of course, this coincides with the axis of greatest coverage for the eclipse, which is a bummer for something so anticipated.

If you travel to Texas for the eclipse, you can still see some natural phenomenon in the evening. The next round of unstable weather will touch off some severe storms in west Texas, targeting the Wichita Falls area on Monday evening, with tornadoes a concern, along with large hail. I can confirm that these thunderstorms will completely obscure the sun.

We’ve made it through the third month of the year that had an intense focus on the Midwest. Victoria-Weather, as should be expected, was strong for the month, but not as strong as The Weather Channel, who took the month, and the lead through three months for the year.

Outlet	Forecast Wins (year)
The Weather Channel	6.49
Victoria-Weather	3.13
Clime	2
WeatherNation	1.83
National Weather Service	1.49
Accuweather	1.16
Weatherbug	0.67