After consecutive harsh winters, an early start to the below normal cold is not what most wanted to hear, but alas, we are already in the midst of it. Halloween is expected to be awfully chilly, and the beginning to November doesn’t project to be much more comfortable.
The 8-14 day outlook from the CPC, which will take us into the 11th month of the year shows that most of the country east of the Rockies is expected to be below normal.
The Great Lakes are going to be embedded in a fairly strong trough, and it isn’t likely to move very far this week. This trough will lead to a pipeline of moisture from the mid-Mississippi Valley to the Mid-Atlantic, including snow in the southern Great Lakes.
The trough is expected to be so entrenched that the Upper Midwest is actually going to be below normal for the second half of the month as well.
A big blast of cold air is is continuing to dive nto the High Plains , setting up a fairly chilly end to the week between the Rockies and the Mississippi. We got that that kicked off with this:
Heavy snow falling now in #Amarillo with near whiteout conditions at 1250 pm. #Snow is beginning to accumulate on roads from near Amarillo westward. #phwxpic.twitter.com/dHgy8djFqL
The Amarillo WFO would later report 3″ of accumulation, which is a considerable total for west Texas at any time of year, but particularly in October. The snow fell on the back end of an area of low pressure that also swept a very active line of storms as far south as Brownsville, which lead to significantly cooler temperatures in the Lone Star State.
The sharp upper level trough that is serving as a host to this system will also inform as to where the feature will progress. It’s sliding back north in the Mississippi Delta right now, abnd will continue to the Great Lakes. The jet is going to regenerate in place, and at least for the next week, temperatures will be chilly in the Plains and Mississippi Delta, save for a brief warm up tomorrow afternoon.
This standing trough will mean a chilly end to the month east of the Rockies, and a Halloween that requires all the princesses and Iron Men to be bundled up, but it has other insidious consequences. The stalled trough has also led to a strong area of high pressure over the Great Basin, which has fueled the dangerous Santa Ana winds that are fanning the flames around Los Angeles this month.
A worst case scenario is a large tornado in a populated area, and it is compounded when it moves through at night. This super cell moved through the north Dallas suburbs in a coming together of some of the worst possible circumstances.
It could have been significantly worse though. The storm touched down just 15 miles away from AT&T Stadium, where the Dallas Cowboys were playing the Philadelphia Eagles in front of 75,000 people. In fact, despite the strength of the tornado (I’m guessing it will be at least an EF-3), and it’s long track, there were no reports of fatalities, and only 3 serious injuries.
The NWS hasn’t plotted the track anywhere yet, pending storm surveys, but in real time, the Google Maps traffic report was a good proxy for estimating the storm track:
The storm impacted many commercial areas, wrecking, in what I have seen so far, a Home Depot, a Land Cruiser dealership, and the home of the Dallas Stars’ Tyler Seguin.
Thanks to everyone reaching out about the news tonight, I am safe. Luckily this is my house for sale and I have moved into a new one. I just left the area and it is an extremely sad sight to see. Prayers to everyone affected by the tornado. https://t.co/wT6XlUBi8N
The damage reports will continue to roll in, and they will likely continue to provide stark imagery. Keep an eye on the NWS Fort Worth office Twitter feed for updates on the storm surveys. As the picture of damage becomes clearer, we will likely appreciate more how lucky we were that it wasn’t worse.
What would eventually become Tropical Storm Nestor formed late in the week, and dissipated shortly thereafter. It made landfall with a maximum sustained wind speed of 50mph. There was a storm in New England that had stronger winds than that.
Still, Nestor did provide his fair share of problems. When the center of Nestor arrived, it had been preceded by an off center, heavy batch of rain. Nestor is still a little off kilter. Note that his center in this radar image is actually around Tallahasee.
That’s a lot of rain, but certainly by looking at it, you wouldn’t say that it looks like a tropical storm, would you?
The primary impact the storm had, aside from the typical rain that comes with tropical storms, was a bout of tornadoes east of Tampa Bay. You can see where they ended up on the SPC storm reports.
There haven’t been the severe reports today out of the storm, and now that Nestor is on shore, he will continue to fall apart and get shoved back off shore.
Nestor has been pretty unremarkable storm, particularly when taken in contrast to some of the tough storms in recent years and months, but one needs only to look at the video below to understand that tropical features should always be given some respect.
another autumn, another raging inferno in California. The drought ravaged state is once again in the crosshairs — Hold on, what’s that? California isn’t classified as being in a drought any longer?
The Saddle Ridge Fire is burning on the northern edge of the San Fernando Valley, safely ensconced in the “None” range of the drought monitory, as of October 10th. I assure you, a drought didn’t develop in the last few days, either. California had a very wet spring, which has allayed the drought in the area, including the San Fernando Valley.
Wildfires are a natural part of the rebirth of the southern California wilderness. It’s a very dry climate, and even if they are receiving the typical amount of precipitation, and this time of year usually features a few fires, aided by hot, brisk winds out of the Mojave, the so called Santa Ana’s. The Saddle Ridge Fre is dangerous, but it is not atypical.
This is making headlines simply because of the location. With populations growing, particularly on the west coast, these regular occurrences suddenly take on an even more menacing turn, as they start near populated areas with greater frequency, and ravage those same areas that may have been many miles away just a decade or two ago.
California is home to a host of potential disasters, and as the population continues to grow and sprawl, they become more and more likely to become catastrophes.
It’s a beautiful day here at VW HQ, temperatures in the low 70s, dew pts in the upper 30s, breeze is a bit stronger than I care to enjoy but I wont complain. Tomorrow looks to be just as enjoyable as well around here. This lovely weather should totally go on for the indefinite future as we head deeper into OctOH MY GOD… checks models
Currently there’s an area of low pressure off the East Coast and over the next couple of days, looks like it will sit just off southern New England and focus a ton of rain right at RI, CT, MA. Strong high pressure sits over Southeast Canada and extends through the Great Lakes all the way down to the TN Valley. What this is doing is causing a blocking pattern and as low pressure ejects out into the Plains late Wednesday into Thursday, it has nowhere to go but basically north-northeast, from eastern KS to MN/WI. Given the cold air that will work its way in on the backside of this system as well, it’s shaping up to possibly produce quite the snowfall from western Nebraska/eastern Wyoming northward through the Dakotas. While it’s a bit early to pin down where the highest snowfall will happen, the Central Dakotas have the highest chance of seeing 6-12″ of snow and combine with winds of 25-35mph. One interesting thing to note is that the top analog to the setup of this system is the Halloween Blizzard of 1991. I’m not going to insinuate that we’re going to have a similar epic snowstorm around here, it’s just something interesting to point out.
It’s been unseasonably warm through a good portion of the Eastern US, and the last few days over the Central US, but this system looks like it’s going to give at least a few states in the Northern US a rude awakening that Winter isn’t as far off as we’d like to think it is.
We didn’t really do a lot of forecasting this month, as most of our attention was tied to the dangerous and persistent tropical season. Dorian and Imelda took a lot of our attention, but when we were, albeit briefly, focused on the Mainland, it was WeatherNation who snuck in for a victory.
There is an enhanced risk for severe weather today in Minnesota, though at present, the radar is pretty sparse, save for a few showers in northern Minnesota and the first severe storm in northwest Iowa.
This radar imagery is from about 4:15. Here is a look at the HRRR forecast radar for about 630 this evening.
It looks as though the guidance is a little behind schedule, but the most important thing to note, will be how fast this line develops. This is the forecast radar 45 minutes later, or 715.
This looks like a strong line from Mankato to Storm Lake. Note the distinct blobs within the line. The threat for tornadoes and large hail is real tonight, and it is evidenced by the depiction of discrete cells within this line.
Eventually, and only within another 45 minutes, the storm will metastasize into a line. It will still be strong, and straight line winds will be added to the mix of threats.
This is the epitome of the “pay attention to the skies” days in southeast Minnesota and northern Iowa. Strong, dangerous storms are likely tonight, and they are likely to develop rapidly. It is possible that strong storms can develop and produce tornadoes even between radar scans with rapid development such as this.
Stay alert, heed local warnings, and listen to your gut. If it seems dangerous, take shelter, even if a warning has not yet been issued.
*Even as I was writing this, a tornado watch was issued for the region*
Meteorologists everywhere feel a twinge of guilt and pain every time severe weather targets life and property. We all love the weather, but when it turns ugly, it hurts a little differently, like we have somehow been betrayed. It’s worse when the bad weather is somewhat unanticipated.
Imelda was never anticipated to be a strong storm, in terms of central pressure, or wind speed, and it wasn’t anticipated, originally, to linger very long. Eventually, the storm did slow down and tracked over the same tract of land for about 48 hours. The result is images that resemble those from Hurricane Harvey, particularly between Houston and Beaumont.
Here is a look at the heaviest rain of the past 24 hours. There is a swath from the Woodlands in the east Houston metro to Beaumont that saw 10+ inches of rain today. Over the course of the storm, that same area saw close to 2 feet.
I’ve underlined Houston and Beaumont on the map which should show you something else from a couple of different perspectives. Either you will see this map, depending on your perspective. Either you will note that the is a lot of rain for a very large area, or you will note that this is actually a lot less rain than the area saw with Harvey. Both conclusions are true, and should be telling.
Even though there is quantitatively less rain from Imelda, there was a lot of rain for a very large area IT was disruptive, deadly, destructive and evocative of the all time crisis that Harvey brought. This should underscore just what a nightmare Harvey was, but also sound an alarm about the eminent threat of any tropical feature. Just because Imelda’s torrential rain affected a smaller footprint doesn’t mean it wasn’t a major catastrophe. Imelda didn’t bring 5 feet o rain, but 2 is still pretty overwhelming.
Before we begin, I want to highlight just what a miserable several days it’s been in southeastern South Dakota. Three EF-2 tornadoes embedded in a strong squall line tore through the south side of Sioux Falls, the state’s largest city Tuesday night. The massive devastation goes to prove, once again, that these strong squall events should be taken very seriously, because these tornadoes were so quick and briefly on the ground, they were over almost as soon as they were detected on radar.
The heaviest damage seemed to occur in one of the main commercial areas of the city, passing through a shopping center and a mall parking lot, and most noticeably tearing to shreds an Advanced Auto Parts. The City of Sioux Falls added this drone footage to their Twitter feed.
Here's a first look at the severe storm damage that occurred last night in Sioux Falls. pic.twitter.com/WyozEC0b8Q
While the tornadoes were embedded in a squall line, the squall line was a part of a persistent pattern of wet weather, that brought massive flooding to southeastern South Dakota and southwest Minnesota. Large tracts of I-90 were closed west of Sioux Falls to Mitchell, and many towns, including Madison, were cut off from the outside world by the rising rivers and creeks in the area. Many places received a foot of rain in a 72 hour period, and the region will remain wet this week. Let’s hope for better days soon.
As for the forecasting in the month of October, WeatherNation’s strategy of associating closely with the Weather Service and changing course only when necessary really only works if you find those situations where you can add value on your own. Well, in August, they did. Not only did WeatherNation win the forecasting title, the NWS dropped all the way to third. Congrats to WeatherNation. (Charts below are for daily forecasts)
