The beginning of winter and the approach of spring are tenuous times for the Great Lakes. With a cold November interacting with yet unfrozen lakes, all it takes is a persistent wind to lead to some particularly impressive snow totals. Suburban Buffalo is in the crosshairs for those kinds of numbers.

The snow is supposed to be heavy enough and at such a time that due to safety concerns for he fans, the Buffalo Bills home game has been moved to Detroit for the weekend. Orchard Park, home of the Bills, is south of that 21.4″ forecast in the city of Buffalo, and could be inline for nearly 3 more feet of snow. (This forecast is for snow on top of what has already been received.)

What is wild about this, is the synoptic outlook for the region, and really the country. Sure, there is low pressure in eastern Canada driving the west-southwest flow off of Lake Erie but there isn’t a lot of atmospheric moisture attendant to the feature.

Buffalo, and Watertown in the same position, just northeast of Lake Ontario, are simply in the wrong place, withstanding a full fetch off their respective Great Lake. Fortunately, much of the rest of the country, excepting the Gulf Coast, where rain is likely tonight, is headed for a pretty quiet travel weekend. Unless you are heading to Buffalo.

In the past, when I was unable to get to a forecaster of the month, and I paired two months into one post, I would title the post “ForecasterS of the Month.” You’ll note that I did not pluralize it this time around, for the very good reason that the forecaster was one and the same for both months. Autumn has swept in, and Victoria-Weather has swept two months in a row!

This is a win, admittedly, for model guidance. Hurricane Ian devastated southwest Florida, but otherwise, the US was impressively dry. Precipitation was sparse, which meant there was little variation from model guidance, and V-W knew how to read the output. Go team!

Outlet	Forecast Wins (year)
Weatherbug	7.33
The Weather Channel	7.33
Accuweather	7.32
Victoria-Weather	6.82
National Weather Service	6.16
WeatherNation	4.83
Forecast.io	4.16

I don’t know about you, but to me, August seemed totally nuts. As a result, at least for me, this meant fewer forecasts than I would like. Of course, we got to write quite a bit about how unbelievably quiet the tropics were, and how some heavy rain events were across the country. It’s not just forecasting here!

Your tax dollars have been at work so far this year, with the National Weather Service maintaining the lead they have had in 2022 with another victory, a decisive one, in August. Way to go, America!

Somewhat strangely, for individual forecast wins on the year, the NWS finds themselves in third, which just means they are consistent.

Outlet	Forecast Wins (year)
Weatherbug	6.33
Accuweather	6.32
National Weather Service	6.16
The Weather Channel	4.83
Victoria-Weather	4.32
WeatherNation	3.83
Forecast.io	3.16

Lakeville, #mnwx pic.twitter.com/FVgoMxlLej

— Ryan Henning (@RhinoandCompass) August 28, 2022

Last night, thunderstorms developed along the Minnesota – Iowa border and lifted north through the Twin Cities. One cell in particular tracked from the south metro to the northeast metro. The cell videoed above was part of the tornadic cell, but was not within the tornado warning.

The cells was ultimately responsible for a smattering of weak tornadoes on the southeast side of the Twin Cities metro, with tree damage in some targeted locations on the storm’s path. Eventually, the storm reached the Minnesota State Fair, going on in Falcon Heights, near St. Paul.

People trying to find shelter as a strong storm hits the state fair #mnwx #mnstatefair #minnesota @FOX9 pic.twitter.com/ErbwbEVjiY

— Kannon Kalton (@WeatherKannon) August 28, 2022

Not only did these storms produce quite a bit of strong wind (as seen above), they dumped a quick burst of rain, that left the Fair submerged.

The Minnesota State Fair paused the Grandstand concert as severe weather moves through the area. Video shows flooding at the fair. pic.twitter.com/1uYrGDre5X

— WCCO – CBS Minnesota (@WCCO) August 28, 2022

Another line of storms is poised to roll through the Twin Cities in the next hour or so, and though there are some stronger cells, they are mostly non-severe. Just another quick shot of rain — this time focused on the north metro — and a cooler work week ahead.

We are approaching the end of August, and the peak of hurricane season is a little more than two weeks away, and we haven’t had a named feature since Tropical Storm Colin graced the Georgia coast at the beginning of July. The way it looks, we will make it until at least September until we have our “D” storm, given the current NHC outlook.

Each of those two yellow x’s represent a wave that ultimately could become a named tropical feature, but the NHC outlook suspects that formation chance is merely 20% through the next 5 days, which takes us to the end of the month with a day to spare. If these storms fail to materialize, and nothing else crops up in the intervening days, it would be the first time since 1997 that we went through August without a named storm in the Atlantic basin, and only the 2nd time since 1961. The fact that one of those x’s lies off the coast of Africa suggests that there is little time for another feature to arrive behind it, and a surprise is even less likely than usual.

The long range GFS model is pretty consistent with a tropical feature showing up at the beginning of September, and that wouldn’t really be a surprise. There is no causation of a quiet September simply because there is a quiet August. Colorado State hasn’t revised their predictions for the season yet. A quiet season in 1992 didn’t have a named storm until August — Hurricane Andrew. That 1961 season didn’t have any August storms, but did have two Category 5 hurricanes later in the season.

I haven’t found a season that hadn’t had a hurricane by September, though, and that would certainly be unusual, if not historic. We’ve also had the first season in 8 years without a named storm before the hurricane season officially starts on June 1st. It’s been a slow start, and it continues to remain slow for the coming days. We should appreciate that while it lasts.

The remnants of a weak tropical feature came ashore in Texas over the weekend, noted only in reference to how quiet the Tropics have been this season. This weak, nameless blob was about all that had troubled North America this summer so far. It gathered a lot more attention overnight into this morning by dumping torrents of rain on the Dallas metro, leading to flash flooding throughout the Big D and Fort Worth.

At least 2 inches of rain have fallen in broad swaths of North Texas and up to 8 were estimated in some spots, making city streets waterlogged and impassable in some places. Radar shows that more rain is coming, though fortunately, Fort Worth should be drying out.

Flash flooding is different than river flooding, in that the onset is much more rapid and isn’t necessarily confined to existing waterways. River flooding can be planned a bit better for evacuations and bracing for the impacts of rising rivers, but flash flooding, like the rain in Dallas, can happen with a lot of rain coming in just a few hours, and is not as easy to anticipate.

There are two particular amplifiers of flash flooding. One of them is the increasingly paved surfaces we find in urban areas. Water pools, unable to drain from roadways, and can cause vehicles to hydroplane or even float. If the water is moving, for example if a nearby waterway has spilled out of its banks, or if the inundated roadway slopes, just a few inches of water are enough to move a vehicle. If water is deep enough, it can cause engines to stall.

The worst case scenario for flash flooding is usually found in hilly or mountainous terrain, such as what happened in eastern Kentucky this summer. Rainwater is channeled into valleys, causing existing rivers and creeks to rise quickly, and sweep away mud, trees and edifices in the water’s path downward. Unlike normal river flooding, which arises from water coming downstream after snow melts or a long, wet season, flash flooding happens in an instant as water flows downhill. Some of the deadliest flash flooding instances in the US occurred in Oregon and Colorado.

Heavier rains are a response to slow moving storms with higher dew points, and are possible even when severe weather hasn’t occurred. It’s always important to stay aware of your surroundings, and not pass through standing water, because you never know what lies beneath.

Late August usually brings out the posts about the coming tropical season and the increasing threat. The peak of the tropical season is less than a month out, and while the NHC continues to forecast a busier than normal season, the Atlantic remains quiet. So we turn our attention to the rest of August in the continental US.

The 8-14 day outlook from the CPC has much of the country in below normal temperatures. This is accompanied by above normal precipitation in the same regions, and as a reminder that summer is still around, a heat wave on the west coast.

Oceans continue to warm through the summer as the sun angle stays strong, which is why late August and September are busiest in the Atlantic, but over large landmasses, air masses are more vulnerable to changes. While the sun is warming the oceans, the angle is reducing, and the jet starts sinking south. There is more variability in the weather pattern, and when there is variability, there is the threat for thunderstorms.

There might be some instinct to believe that the extremely divergent temperatures relative to normal found on the coasts versus that in the middle of the country. Looking at the upper level pattern, though, this doesn’t quite seem likely. Typically weak summertime flow is going to continue until late in this outlook period, which means these cooler temperatures will probably be a result of moisture and cloud cover thanks to an array of surface perturbations.

Shorter waved features are more spurious, and is why there is less confidence in the below normal temperature field than with the warmer regions, which are a result of strong jet stream ridges in the forecast. There isn’t the full level cold air mass in the middle of country to provide the clash of airmass you need for big severe outbreaks. There will certainly be some thunder embedded within all the rain coming Middle America’s way, but not high risk days from the Storm Prediction Center.

Generally, there is usually a late year severe weather peak at the beginning of fall, as cold air really starts to come back to town. Unlike the spring severe season, cold air is denser and tends to completely supplant warm air. Cold air is reinforced, and warm air has a tougher time coming back, so the severe season is shorter than spring, where warm air keeps trying to bubble up.

Like the tropical season this year, we shouldn’t read to much into this quiet October. The hurricane season, like the fall severe season could still get very interesting very quickly.

Do you like surprises? I like surprises, so I am a fan of how this month turned out. WeatherNation, who very often gloms on to the Weather Service Forecast, found itself oscillating between the Weather Service, the Weather Channel and sometimes it’s own forecast, and managed to grab the Forecaster of the Month award for the month of July. Cagey strategy, and a big reward.

Outlet	Forecast Wins (year)
Weatherbug	6.33
Accuweather	5.99
The Weather Channel	4.83
National Weather Service	4.83
Victoria-Weather	3.99
WeatherNation	3.83
Forecast.io	2.16

We’ve made it all the way to August, and we haven’t awarded the FOTM to our June forecaster yet! That is a consequence of the active forecast and road trip schedule we’ve had of late, but now, certainly, is the time to give some meteorologists their due.

June was a mercifully slow start to the summer, with temperatures and storms more manageable than we’ve seen in recent years. July started to go off the rails, but we can appreciate Victoria-Weather’s victory for June with some sort of peace. Congrats to us!

Outlet	Forecast Wins (year)
Weatherbug	6.33
Accuweather	5.16
The Weather Channel	4.33
National Weather Service	4
Victoria-Weather	3.49
WeatherNation	2
Forecast.io	0.66

There has been no shortage of severe weather this season, but it hasn’t been accompanied by broad swaths of rain. Even after a wet spring, the Heartland is starting to get browner. The below normal spots are fairly piecemeal, which is a good indicator that isolated thunderstorms have roamed the country.

Below, see a comparison of the drought monitor from this week versus last week, and you can see just where the increasingly crispy lawns are located.

La Niña years tend to be drier years for a lot of the country, so there isn’t a lot to read into on this in terms of long term ramifications, but for the short term, it will may lead to a difficult growing season for some crops. Corn, famously, likes dry, hoy summers, and after the soggy spring, it’s coming around robustly in some parts of the Midwest.

There has been quite a lot of rain in the west of late, but as you can see, there was barely a dent in the drought. “dry” is different than “drought”. Dry can be turned around in short order with a couple of good rains. Drought is a lot stickier. It needs some above average rainy months or seasons in order to start making a dent. In fact, one really good rain storm might be counter productive, with run off and flash flooding becoming a problem on hard ground that is not capable of taking on the rain water.

It looks like the southwest will have a wet season, so that long term moisture will be good for recovery. Also note that there has been some retreat of the drought in northwest. It’s not necessarily a great outlook, but it’s a little better than it has been for a while. The drought in the west may lighten a bit, and by the end of July, Mississippi Valley lawns will be green again.