Santa Barbara, California

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

Unlike our last trip to the Golden State, Santa Barbara is a little bit closer to the fires in Southern California, particularly the recently ignited Easy Fire, burning between Thousand Oaks and Simi Valley. What are we looking at for the next couple of days? Respite?

At 753AM, ET, Santa Barbara was reporting clear skies and a temperature of 39 degrees. Shielded by the Coastal Range, and seeing as it is fairly early in the morning, Santa Barbara was shielded from any blustery winds from the interior of the state.
In the next couple of days, a coastal trough is forecast to develop and should finally blunt the winds from the east. A little bit of latent moisture may even turn into a Marine Layer, sneaking up the coast by Saturday morning, making for a cool damp beginning to the weekend.
Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, with some smoky haze, High 74, Low 40
Saturday – Early fog, then clearing and hazy High 73, Low 42

TWC: Tomorrow – A mainly sunny sky. High 77, Low 46
Saturday – Sunny. High 76, Low 48

AW: Tomorrow – Delightful with plenty of sunshine High 75, Low 40
Saturday – Delightful with plenty of sunshine High 74, Low 42

NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny High 80, Low 44
Saturday – Sunny High 77, Low 46

WB: Tomorrow – Sunny High 73, Low 42
Saturday – Sunny High 73, Lw 46

WN: Tomorrow – Sunny HIgh 80, Low 44
Saturday – Sunny High 77, Low 46

FIO: Tomorrow – Clear throughout the day. High 73, Low 58
Saturday – Clear throughout the day. High 74, Low 61

There are some wild differences on the low temperature forecasts in Santa Barbara. Are these even all the same city? A look at the map shows that the fire danger is a little removed from Santa Barbara, but it should still be monitored.

Madera, California

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

The big news story out of California is once again the wildfire season, aided heavily by a robust Santa Ana wind regime. Madera lies in the Central Valley, set away from the flaming hillsides in Wine Country and northwest of Los Angeles, and are under no threat from the flames, though those brisk Santa Anas will surely cause some concerns, won’t they?

At 853 AM, PT, Madera was reporting a temperature of 46 degrees with clear skies and calm winds. Other places further south in the Valley were reporting some light haze as the brisk winds on the hills and mountains of the Golden State was not settling into the Valley.
The atmosphere is finally going to start doing some favors for the beleaguered region, as a strong trough is getting ready to dig into the Great Basin, breaking up the Santa Ana high, and allowing winds to subside. There will continue to be some breeze, though it will shift to become more north-northwesterly as a cold front tries to sneak into the area. With wind off the ocean and picking up the Kincade Fire of northern California, smoke and fog will become more likely in the Madera area Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday evening. Expect some cooler temperatures, though depending on the moisture transported into the region, those could be blunted by a lack of radiational cooling.
Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, with some haze possible, High 70, low 37
Wednesday – A bit cloudy with haze and morning fog more likely, High 68, Low 35

TWC: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 71, Low 37
Wednesday – Mostly Sunny, High 68, Low 34

AW: Tomorrow – Plenty of sunshine, High 71, low 36
Wednesday – Plenty of sunshine, High 69, Low 32

NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 69, Low 39
Wednesday – sunny, High 68, Low 37

WB: Tomorrow – Sunny, Patchy frost in the morning, High 69, Low 49
Wednesday – Sunny, patchy frost in the morning, High 67, Low 36

WN: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 69, low 39
Wednesday – Sunny, high 68, Low 37

FIO: Tomorrow – Clear throughout the day. High 72, low 37
Wednesday – Clear throughout the day. High 70, Low 34

Not often that Victoria-Weather finds itself smack dab in the middle of things. The biggest surprise to me was that the GFS has a warming trend for Wednesday, and it was wholly rejected by all outlets. That doesn’t happen often. Here is the satellite image for central California. If you look closely, you can see the plume from the Kincade Fire north of San Francisco Bay.

Olympia, Washington

Anthony Dunkel Leave a comment

Today we’re going to visit the Pacific Northwest, and visit the capital of Washington! Let’s see how Olympia will fare as we head into midweek.

At 654pm, the temperature at Olympia, WA is 51 degrees under fair skies. An area of low pressure is intensifying over eastern Montana, and trailing a front back through ID into OR. This feature will be pushing out into the Plains throughout the day Wednesday, bringing some showers to the Central Plains. Behind this feature, an area of high pressure is settling in over the Pacific Northwest and looks to make it its home over the next couple of days. Some areas of dense fog are possible in the area tomorrow morning before burning off by midday. Some patchy fog is possible Thursday morning too, but will be less widespread. Both days will be dry, with temps lifting a smidge for Thursday.

Wednesday: Some morning dense fog, then becomes sunny. High 58, Low 41.
Thursday: Partly cloudy and a bit warmer. High 61, Low 37.

TWC: Wednesday: AM fog, PM sun. High 59, Low 43.
Thursday: Morning fog again, then afternoon sun. High 62, Low 41.

AW: Wednesday: Times of clouds and sun. High 58, Low 41.
Thursday: Mostly sunny and pleasant. High 62, Low 38.

NWS: Wednesday: Patchy fog then sunny. High 57, Low 42.
Thursday: Mostly sunny. High 62, Low 41.

WB: Wednesday: Partly sunny. High 56, Low 46.
Thursday: Mostly sunny. High 60, Low 42.

WN: Wednesday: Mostly sunny. High 57, Low 42.
Thursday: Partly cloudy. high 62, Low 41.

FIO: Wednesday: Partly cloudy throughout the day. High 58, Low 40.
Thursday: Mostly cloudy throughout the morning, clearing late. High 61, Low 37.

A bunch of high clouds are streaming over the area as a system gets revved up in the Northern High Plains. High pressure takes over the region keeping conditions fairly pleasant.

Toledo, Ohio

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

Fall colors are in full bloom across the Great Lakes. Are there any leaf peepers headed to northwest Ohio?

At 1152AM, ET, Toledo was reporting mostly cloudy skies with a temperature of 51 degrees. Toledo was on the back side of a strong system moving through New England, which resulted in a brisk northerly flow across the region. there was a tendril of clearer skies right over Toledo, but the back end of the clouds is over Wisconsin and Illinois.
After some clear air gets to Toledo, the primary influencer will be a tropical disturbance developing now in the Gulf of Mexico, headed northeast across north Florida towards the Carolinas, which will sap moisture from a cold front advancing through the Upper Midwest. Ahead of the front, and on the back of the tropical feature, warmer air will filter into Toledo, with clouds likely across Lake Erie.
Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, much less wind, High 56, low 35
Saturday – Partly cloudy and warmer, High 64, Low 36

TWC: Generally sunny despite a few afternoon clouds. high 56, low 36
Saturday – Generally sunny despite a few afternoon clouds., High 65, Low 38

AW: Tomorrow – Plenty of sunshine High 57, low 36
Saturday – Partly sunny and pleasant High 66, Low 38

NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 55, Low 38
Saturday – Mostly sunny, High 65, Low 42

WB: Tomorrow – Areas of frost in the morning. Mostly sunny, High 56, Low 41
Saturday – Mostly sunny, High 65, Low 41

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 55, Low 38
Saturday – Mostly sunny, High 65, Low 42

FIO: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy throughout the day. High 57, Low 36
Saturday – Partly cloudy throughout the day. High 67, low 38

A look at the satellite shows that cloud cover at the western flank of the big storm on the east coast.

Boston, Massachusetts

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

Happy weekend, everyone! We’re going to stop in Beantown to see how life is now that we’ve finished with a nasty early season storm.

At 1254AM, ET, Boston was reporting clear skies and a temperature of 55 degrees. Some fog and clouds were settling in in the Berkshires and across Providence and South Boston, however it will be a race between clouds over the Cape and that fog, as temperatures should level off overnight if cloud cover encroaches. There is clear air over southern New England and in the Mid Atlantic, so if Boston is skirted by the clouds to the south, a foggy Sunday morning seems likely.
The dominant feature in the eastern US is a deep area of low pressure in Ontario, with an occluded front through New England and a cold front stretching to the Carolinas. Independent circulation at the occlusion will shift off shore through tomorrow morning, and will deepen into a mostly independent feature, strengthened via good jet support. The amplification looks to be underestimated by the models at this point, but is also going to remain well east of Boston, bringing perhaps some low clouds and a little bit of wind on Monday.
Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 66. Low 53
Monday – Mostly cloudy, High 65, Low 51

TWC: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy. High 68, Low 52
Monday – Sunshine and clouds mixed. High 67, Low 51

AW: Tomorrow – Clouds and breaks of sun High 68, Low 54
Monday – Clouds and breaks of sun, High 67, Low 52

NWS: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, HIgh 66, Low 49
Monday – A chance of showers between 9am and noon. Partly sunny HIgh 66, Low 50

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 65, Low 50
Monday – Partly sunny with a 30% chance of showers, High 64, Low 51

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, HIgh 66, Low 50
Monday – Partly cloudy with scattered showers, High 66, Low 50

FIO: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy throughout the day. High 65, Low 51
Monday – Partly cloudy throughout the day. High 63, Low 49

The NWS and friends are going for the shower potential, but it isn’t a popular forecast elsewhere. 60s seem pretty tolerable for October. Here is the satellite, with clear skies ready to move north.

Lewiston, Maine

Anthony Dunkel Leave a comment

As the Northern Plains get pummeled by a historic early-season blizzard, we’re going to take a look at a locale that would probably bring visions of snow and crisp air to the mind, Lewiston, Maine! Surely they’re doing better than our neighbors in the Dakotas, right?

At 1056pm EDT, the temperature at Lewiston, ME was 51 degrees under fair skies. While a potent winter storm hits the Central US, a nor’easter is busy spinning its’ wheels off the Eastern Seaboard. It’s been pushing plenty of rain into Southern New England over the last 24 hours along with persistent northeasterly winds, causing coastal flooding in areas. While some shower activity may get close to the coast during the day Friday, we’re expecting the Lewiston area to remain dry. As the low finally gets moving towards Nova Scotia, some light shower activity may affect the area early Saturday morning before drying out for the rest of the day. It may not be a washout, but overall, not a great start to the weekend weather-wise.

Friday: Overcast. High 58, Low 43.
Saturday: Cooler with scattered morning showers. High 54, Low 43.

NWS: Friday: Overcast. High 57, Low 44.
Saturday: Showers expected. High 53, Low 46.

AW: Friday: Rather cloudy. High 57, Low 43.
Saturday: Rain and drizzle in the morning. High 51, Low 44.

NWS: Friday: Mostly cloudy, couple of late showers. High 58, Low 43.
Saturday: Scattered showers. High 53, Low 43.

WB: Friday: Mostly cloudy. High 55, Low 44.
Saturday: Scattered showers in morning. High 53, Low 46.

WN: Friday: Mostly cloudy, showers late. High 58, Low 43.
Saturday: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. High 53, Low 43.

FIO: Friday: Mostly cloudy throughout the day. High 61, Low 45.
Saturday: Possible drizzle in the morning. High 55, Low 48.

The Lewiston area is dry currently, but those rain showers sitting offshore will slowly rotate their way inland during the weekend.

College Station, Texas

Anthony Dunkel 1 Comment

As we head into the first weekend of October, we head into southeast TX to take a look at College Station, home of Texas A&M! Can we expect some football weather or is the south still holding on to a bit of summer?

At 953pm CDT, the temperature at College Station, TX was 83 degrees under fair skies. Normally the people of the city would be gearing up for a big Football Saturday and root their Aggies on, but not this weekend as it’s a bye week for them. Luckily, the fans don’t have to be outside watching them play as it’s shaping up to be a very hot weekend in southeast TX. Weak high pressure continues to linger over the region while the main dome of it is parked well out east. An area of low pressure is shifting through the Central Plains into the Upper Midwest and while it will bring rain and thunderstorms from MN/WI down into KS/OK, it’s going to be pretty quiet on Saturday as just some isolated thunderstorms may pop off towards the LA/TX border. The cold front dropping through the Plains will gain more steam throughout the day on Sunday, bringing showers and storms to AR/OK and northern TX, but by the time the front makes it to the area, it should be during the early Monday morning hours. In the meantime, temperatures look to hit the mid-90s all weekend. A sweltering start to October!

Saturday: Partly cloudy and hot. High 94, Low 72.
Sunday: Partly cloudy, continued hot. High 95, Low 72.

TWC: Saturday: Mostly sunny. High 95, Low 72.
Sunday: Mostly sunny. High 95, Low 73.

AW: Saturday: Mostly sunny. High 95, Low 71.
Sunday: Mostly sunny and hot. High 94, Low 72.

NWS: Saturday: Sunny. High 95, Low 73.
Sunday: Sunny. High 94, Low 72.

WB: Saturday: Mostly sunny. High 94, Low 74.
Sunday: Partly cloudy. High 93, Low 74.

WN: Saturday: Mostly sunny. High 95, Low 72.
Sunday: Mostly sunny. High 94, Low 73.

FIO: Saturday: Humid and partly cloudy throughout the day. High 94, Low 72.
Sunday: Partly cloudy throughout the day. High 94, Low 71.

It’s a quiet night for the most part around southeast TX tonight, some storms are lingering east of Houston. A fairly quiet couple of days are in store so enjoy this hot weekend!

Greensboro, North Carolina

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

The Carolinas were clipped by Dorian, with coastal sections of the states from Charleston to the Outer Banks sustaining damage, primarly due to storm surge and some isolated tornadoes, like the one in North Myrtle Beach. Greensboro was largely unaffected, and now can look instead to the west for their upcoming weather.

At 1152AM, ET, Greensboro was reporting a temperature of 79 degrees with fair skies. There was a little bit of cloud cover across the region, but not so much that the satellite was very busy. A stalled boundary suspended between two areas of low pressure in the Great Lakes was inducing a generally southerly flow, which will likely lead to low clouds and fog when temperatures start to wane.
The western low will start to occlude, while the cold front attached to the boundary to the east will begin to sink further south, decoupling from the western low. There won’t be much energy with the tail of this front as it passes into North Carolina, but after sunset, destabilization aloft might lead to a few showers and storms on Friday evening.
Tomorrow – Sunny and humid, High 92, Low 73
Friday – Mostly cloudy with increasing chances of rain. Cooler, High 83, Low 71

TWC: Tomorrow – Except for a few afternoon clouds, mainly sunny. high 95, Low 72
Friday – Scattered thunderstorms High 81, Low 71

AW: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, hot, High 94, Low 71
Friday – Intervals of clouds and sun, a couple of showers and a thunderstorm, mainly later; warm High 83, low 72

NWS: Tomorrow – A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms after 2pm. Patchy fog before 9am. Otherwise, sunny,  High 94, Low 71
Friday – A chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 1pm. Increasing clouds, High 86, Low 70

WB: Tomorrow – Sunny. Patchy fog in the morning. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. High 93, Low 73
Friday – Partly sunny. A chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon, High 83, Low 73

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy with isolated storms, High 94, low 72
Friday – Partly cloudy with scattered storms, High 86, Low 70

FIO: Tomorrow – Humid and mostly cloudy throughout the day. High 93, Low 70
Friday – Humid and partly cloudy throughout the day. High 84, low 70

Model guidance suggests that temperatures will actually be in the high 70s on Friday, but note how nobody is on board with that. This is because guidance often fails to cope with terrain’s influence on temperature. That heavy, cold air will struggle to clear Appalachia, and with a blanket of mid level clouds, radiative cooling will be unlikely. Here is the satellite, with no clouds to speak of this morning.

Fresno, California

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

All eyes remain on Dorian as he batters the northern Bahamas, and we can openly speculate on his further track. It appears as though his course will mean a greater threat for the Carolinas than Florida. Last year, California bore the brunt of weather headlines for much of the year, thanks to drought and fires. This year, California is mercifully off the radar. Let’s check back in.

At 953PM, PT, Fresno was reporting fair skies and a temperature of 87 degrees. While not humid, the dew point was certainly a bit warmer than normal for central California. Despite that, the Golden State was clear, though the monsoon was active with heavy storms over Arizona.
Monsoonal activity will diminish tomorrow, though some high peak showers and storms will be possible, but settled into the valley, a little bit of morning haze will burn off quickly, with hot sunny skies in the afternoons.
Tomorrow – Sunny and hot, High 102, Low 72
Tuesday – Sunny and hot High 102, Low 74

TWC – Mostly sunny skies. High 103, Low 73
Tuesday – Mainly sunny. High 102, Low 73

AW: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny; hot High 103, Low 73
Tuesday – Mostly sunny; hot High 102, Low 72

NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny and hot, High 100, Low 73
Tuesday – Sunny and hot, High 100, Low 73

WB: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 102, Low 74
Tuesday – Sunny, High 101, Low 74

WN: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 100, Low 73
Tuesday – Sunny, High 100, Low 73

FIO: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy throughout the day. High 103, Low 71
Tuesday – Clear throughout the day. High 103, Low 71

The forecast is quite warm, but it’s interesting that the Weather Service is the coolest outlook. That’s not how it usually goes. Chec out this crystal clear satellite.

Peoria, Illinois

Anthony Dunkel Leave a comment

As we head into midweek and draw ever closer to the end of Meteorological Summer, let’s head to central IL and see what’s in store for Peoria!

At 1154pm CDT, the temperature at Peoria, IL was 64 degrees under fair skies. A large dome of high pressure is found over the region, making for very pleasant conditions as we head into midweek. This area of low pressure is going to shift off to the south and east during the day, however, as a cold front pushes through the Upper Midwest. While the main impacts of the front look to be off to the north and east, the tail end of the front looks to move through during the evening hours, which could bring some scattered showers and an isolated thunderstorm to the area. No washouts are expected from it, but don’t be surprised if you have to dodge a dinnertime shower.

Wednesday: Sunny and pleasant. High 79, Low 57.
Thursday: Mostly sunny, isolated evening shower. High 86, Low 60.

TWC: Wednesday: Sunny. High 80, Low 58.
Thursday: Afternoon thunderstorms. High 88, Low 56.

AW: Wednesday: Mostly sunny; pleasant. High 78, Low 56.
Thursday: Sunshine; pleasant. High 84, Low 56.

NWS: Wednesday: Sunny. High 77, Low 56.
Thursday: Sunny. High 85, Low 56.

WB: Wednesday: Sunny. High 78, Low 57.
Thursday: Sunny. High 84, Low 57.

WN: Wednesday: Sunny. High 77, Low 56.
Thursday: Mostly sunny. High 85, Low 56.

FIO: Wednesday: Clear throughout the day. High 77, Low 54.
Thursday: Possible light rain in the evening. High 84, Low 54.

We see the swirl of clouds associated with an area of low pressure over northern MN, but central IL is pretty quiet tonight. That seems to be the story for the next couple days as well.