Louisville, Kentucky

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

Louisville, Kentucky, is one of the first places I ever went on a road trip to just for the sake of having done it. It holds a place in my heart, I guess is what I’m saying.

At 328PM, ET, Louisville was reporting a temperature of 88 degrees with fair skies. The dew points were in the low 70s, but as near as Bloomington, Indiana, the dew point was 10 degrees cooler. A strong early autumnal system which has absorbed the remnants of Laura is presently forcing a cold front through Kentucky. A line of thunderstorms lay through southern Kentucky, while the back edge of clouds is in the south Louisville metro, and the change in airmass is just north of the Ohio. Continued improvement is expected for Louisville today.
The jet structure still remains in Canada, and so the refreshment behind this cold front isn’t likely to last long. A surface perturbation is forecast to move from the western Gulf Coast to the east north east Sunday night, bringing rain to the area through early Monday afternoon. Some thunder is possible on Sunday night, with a dreary morning on Monday, though it should clear up later in the day.
Tomorrow – Late showers and thunderstorms, High 83, Low 63
Monday – Cloudy with some early sprinkles, High 80, Low 66

TWC: Tomorrow – Considerable cloudiness. (Evening rain) High 80, Low 64
Monday – Rain showers early with some sunshine later in the day. High 82, Low 66

AW: Tomorrow – Partly sunny, evening storms, High 79, Low 64
Monday – Mostly cloudy and humid with widely separated thunderstorms High 81, Low 65

NWS: Tomorrow – A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after 3pm. Partly sunny, High 80, Low 63
Monday – Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly before 9am. Mostly cloudy, High 82, Low 66

WB: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy with a 30% chance of showers and thunderstorms, High 78, Low 69
Monday – Mostly cloudy with a 40% chance of showers and thunderstorms, High 79, Low 70

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy with scattered storms, High 80, Low 65
Monday – Partly cloudy with thunderstorms likely, High 82, Low 66

FIO: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy throughout the day. High 81, Low 63
Monday – Rain overnight and in the morning. High 83, Low 65

We’re all hovering in the low 80s for the next couple of days, but I’m going in a different direction, I guess. Make sure to take a look at what WAVE-NBC’s meteorologists have to say, and then check out the radar on their site for a pretty discernible line of storms in the southern part of the state.

Bay City, Michigan

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

We’re going to take a trip up to the Great Lakes at just the time of year that the Great Lakes are the most pleasant.

At 953PM, ET, Bay City was reporting clear skies and a temperature of 72 degrees. A weak cold front moving across the Mackinac Strait, with a line of thunderstorms north of and heading for Gaylord. A weak upper level trough has sagged into northern Michigan with the cold front, but as the surface low associated with it continues off towards northern Quebec, the boundary will stall.
The proximity of the boundary will mean a threat for an afternoon thunderstorm in Bay City, however it is more likely that the wet weather will stay north of of Saginaw Bay. A lower level feature in the Upper Midwest will redirect flow and press rain and storms back northward out of Lower Michigan. Saturday will be clearer, albeit warmer and muggier.
Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 85, Low 64
Saturday – Sunny, High 88, Low 62

TWC: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy skies. High 87, Low 62
Saturday – Partly cloudy skies. High 88, Low 60

AW: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny and warm High 87, Low 62
Saturday – Mostly sunny and very warm High 88,Low 60

NWS: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny High 85, Low 64
Saturday – Sunny High 88, Low 62

WB: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy then clearing, High 87, Low 62
Saturday – Mostly sunny, High 87, Low 63

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 86, Low 64
Saturday – Mostly sunny, High 88, Low 61

FIO: Tomorrow – Clear throughout the day. High 87, Low 61
Saturday – Partly cloudy throughout the day. High 86, Low 61

The radar looks perhaps a bit more ominous than it actually is. That is especially the case for the southern end of this image, which is where Bay City lies.

Wheeling, West Virginia

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

It took quite a bit of cartographic gymnastics to come up with the borders of West Virginia. Wheeling is in the northern Panhandle of the state, along the mighty Ohio River.

At 353PM, ET, Wheeling was reporting a temperature of 78 degrees with clear skies and a light north wind. There was some scattered stratocumulus bracketing northern West Virginia, while lazy low pressure existed on the coastal side of the Appalachians. Some taller clouds were popping up in the mountains, but high pressure will remain in place over the eastern Great Lakes through tomorrow.
An upper level trough will start to foment surface troughing, originating around the Mississippi Delta and building northeast to the Blue Ridge Mountains. Circulation and organization will be weak, but given the ripe environment, there will be showers and storms on the southern horizon. Wheeling should be far enough north to evade wet weather, but expect an increase of clouds in the afternoon.
Tomorrow – Sunny, High 86, Low 55
Friday – Increasing clouds, High 87, Low 59

TWC: Tomorrow – Sunshine and some clouds. High 84, Low 52
Friday – More clouds than sun. A stray shower or thunderstorm is possible. High 86, Low 61

AW: Tomorrow – Beautiful with sun and areas of high clouds High 84, Low 55
Friday – Variable cloudiness with a thunderstorm High 81, Low 64

NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 87, Low 55
Friday – A slight chance of showers after 2pm. Partly sunny, High 89, Low 63

WB: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 85, Low 55
Friday – Partly sunny. A slight chance of showers in the afternoon. High 86, Low 63

WN: Mostly sunny High 87, Low 55
Friday – Partly cloudy with isolated showers, High 89, Low 63

FIO: Tomorrow – Clear throughout the day. High 86, Low 54
Friday – Mostly cloudy throughout the day. High 88, Low 62

Accuweather is taking a different path, aren’t they? I’m not sold on thunderstorms, and on a nice clear day like today, how could you even THINK about bad weather?

Durham, North Carolina

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

Time to get this forecast wagon hitched and on the road!

At 953PM, ET, Durham was reporting a temperature of 73 degrees with clear skies. There was a line of very weak thunderstorms extending from north of Fayetteville to south of Mount Airy, but it was continuing to diminish for the night. A lower level trough over the mid-Atlantic is churning up a few showers and thunderstorms throughout the area, and the persistence is leading to the threat of flash flooding where the storms sit in place, but it is clear and humid where they are not.
The low level wave will shift off shore and low pressure will deepen rapidly in the Gulfstream, The deepening low pressure will extend west to the coast, with moisture building into the Carolinas again on Saturday. Before that, a little bit of dry air will dig in thanks to the circulation of the deepening low, but the beginning of the weekend might be a bit drearier.
Tomorrow – Partly cloudy with late showers and storms, High 88, Low 73
Saturday – Scattered showers and storms, High 85, Low 73

TWC: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy in the morning with scattered thunderstorms developing later in the day. High 86, Low 71
Saturday – Thunderstorms. Potential for heavy rainfall. High 82, Low 72

AW: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with a couple of showers and a heavy t-storm, mainly later; watch for flash flooding High 86, Low 71
Saturday – Mostly cloudy and humid with a couple of showers and a thunderstorm around, some can be heavy late High 84, Low 72

NWS: Tomorrow – Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly after 3pm. Mostly cloudy, High 88, Low 72
Saturday – Showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 8am High 85, Low 72

WB: Tomorrow – Cloudy with a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms in the morning then partly sunny with showers and thunderstorms likely in the afternoon, High 84, Low 72
Saturday – Showers and thunderstorms, High 81, Low 72

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with thunderstorms likely, High 88, Low 72
Saturday – Mostly cloudy with thunderstorms, High 86, Low 72

FIO: Tomorrow – Possible light rain and humid throughout the day. High 86, Low 71
Saturday – Rain and humid throughout the day. High 83, Low 72

Interestingly enough, we just started watching the Last Dance tonight, and here we are, forecasting for Durham. Maybe not that interesting. Anyways, here is a look at the radar, showing those isolated storms. There is a lot of ground clutter that is making it look worse than is true on the ground.

Napa, California

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

All right, another forecast! I’ve been to the Napa area within the last year, and I do have to say, it is significantly more beautiful than I anticipated, but also much different. That said, I didn’t quite know what to expect.

At 754PM, PT, Napa was reporting a temperature of 64 degrees with clear skies. Fog and low clouds were settling into the South Bay as night encroached, and the clear skies and dewpoints in the mid 50s suggest that fog will be likely in the Napa Valley as well, particularly given that it is only approaching 8pm.
A trough moving through the Pacific Northwest is churning things up further to the north along the Pacific Coast, while high pressure hasn’t yet settled into the southwest to provide the offshore winds to battle back the marine layer. Napa looks like it will warm up a bit as the weekend arrives, which may limit the morning and evening haze on Friday.
Tomorrow – Cloudy early, then sunny, with haze arriving late, High 80, Low 56
Friday – Sunnier, High 82, Low 57

TWC: Some clouds in the morning will give way to mainly sunny skies for the afternoon High 83, Low 57
Friday – Mainly sunny. High 81, Low 55

AW: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny High 83, Low 57
Friday – Beautiful with areas of low clouds early; otherwise, mostly sunny High 83, Low 55

NWS: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy through mid morning, then gradual clearing, High 81, Low 56
Friday – Sunny, High 81, Low 55

WB: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy in the morning, then becoming sunny. Patchy fog in the morning, High 85, Low 59
Friday – Partly cloudy in the morning, then becoming sunny, High 80, Low 57

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 80, Low 56
Friday – Mostly sunny, High 80, Low 55

FIO: Tomorrow – Clear throughout the day. High 87, Low 54
Friday – Clear throughout the day. High 85, Low 53

Forecast.io is clearly using their own model guidance. Yikes. Here is the satellite imagery, showing the low clouds along the coast, getting ready to envelop San Francisco.

Reno, Nevada

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

It’s opening day for baseball fans, at long, long last, so let’s go to a state that does not have any baseball whatsoever, because Victoria-Weather is excellent with timing, if nothing else.

At 755PM, MT, Reno was reporting a temperature of 79 degrees with winds of 35mph. There were some clouds over the Sierras around Lake Tahoe, and the end of showers and storms within that activity were leading to the localized gusts.
The trend will continue to be towards clearing as the work week ends and the weekend arrives. Expect surface high pressure to continue to build across the Intermountain West, with sunny skies and warm temperatures for Reno.
Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 92, Low 59
Saturday – Sunny, High 93, Low 57

TWC: Tomorrow – Sunshine and some clouds High 89, Low 56
Saturday – Generally sunny despite a few afternoon clouds High 92, Low 58

AW: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny High 90, Low 57,
Saturday – Sunny to partly cloudy High 92, Low 59

NWS: Tomorrow – Widespread haze before 11am. Sunny High 91, Low 59
Saturday – Sunny High 92, Low 60

WB: Tomorrow – Sunny. Haze in the morning. Slight chance of showers and thunderstorms, High 87, Low 57
Saturday – Sunny, High 91, Low 59

WN: Tomorrow – Hazy, High 90, Low 59
Saturday – Mostly sunny, High 92, Low 60

FIO: Tomorrow – Clear throughout the day. High 87. Low 62
Saturday – Clear throughout the day. High 92, Low 64

Here is a look at the satellite. Those diminishing clouds brought the breeze, but their diminishing will lead to a rapid cooldown tonight.

Fayetteville, North Carolina

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

We randomly pick our forecast cities, so there isn’t any favoritism here, but boy, our random selector sure seems to like Fayetteville lately.

At 1053PM, ET, Fayetteville was reporting a temperature of 79 degrees with clear skies. With a dew point of 73, the clear skies are likely to lead to some fog developing before the night is through, though there was a spot of shower and thunderstorm activity southwest of Fayetteville across the border in South Carolina.
A vast area of low pressure has parked itself over Hudson Bay, and is playing a role in directing traffic much further south. A weak undercutting wave moving through the southern Great Lakes is amplifying onshore flow in the eastern Carolinas tonight, but by tomorrow evening, only a fading trough west of the Appalachians will remain. A moisture rich, generally featureless landscape will mark the Carolinas’ atmosphere on Friday, with some later afternoon showers and thunderstorms possible, but likely closer to Charlotte and Winston-Salem, where the terrain may have some say in he matter. Hot and hazy is the name of the game in Fayetteville.
Tomorrow – Partly cloudy and warm, High 92, Low 75
Friday – Mostly cloudy, High 94, Low 74

TWC: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny skies. High 92, Low 72
Friday – Sunshine and clouds mixed. A stray shower or thunderstorm is possible. High 93, Low 72

AW: Tomorrow – Partly sunny High 93, Low 71
Friday – A morning thunderstorm; otherwise, partly sunny High 93, Low 72

NWS: Tomorrow – A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms after noon. Mostly sunny High 94, Low 74
Friday – A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms after 1pm. Mostly sunny, High 95, Low 72

WB: Tomorrow – Partly sunny. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. High 90, Low 74
Friday – Mostly sunny High 90, Low 73

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 94, Low 78
Friday – Mostly sunny, High 95, Low 72

FIO: Tomorrow – Humid and partly cloudy throughout the day. High
92, Low 72
Friday – Humid and partly cloudy throughout the day. High 92, Low 70

Well, the day turned to Thursday as I was posting this, and that confused me a bit with the forecasts. Here is a look at the satellite, with one rogue shower, now fading, in South Carolina.

Super dewps

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Never underestimate the ability of a high dew point to hold temperatures back. That was the case in College Station on Wednesday, with dew points in the 70s throughout the entire 24 (actually 48 hour period of the forecast), but another cause was a particularly vigorous onshore breeze that even let in a few drops of mist late in the day on Wednesday. Temperatures were a degree or two cooler than most outlets anticipated as a result. Generally, it was a decent forecast, though, with The Weather Channel and Accuweather claiming a tie.
Actuals: Tuesday – High 92. Low 81
Wednesday – High 94, Low 79

Grade: B-

College Station, Texas

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

East Texas is always a haven of interesting weather. How interesting will it be this week?

At 1253PM, CT, College Station was reporting a temperature of 90 degrees with mostly cloudy skies. A brisk southerly wind imported moisture from the Gulf, leading to a dew point in the mid 70s, and the general cloudiness of the region.
Low pressure in the lee of the Rockies will trend towards dissipation over the next 48 hours, which will snuff out the brisk south winds, leading to a much clearer, and likely much warmer mid-week, even as moisture lingers in the atmosphere.
Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 93, Low 78
Wednesday – Hotter and sunny, High 97, Low 78

TWC: Tomorrow – Mainly cloudy, High 93, Low 79
Wednesday – Sunshine along with some cloudy intervals, High 95, Low 79

AW: Tomorrow – Breezy and humid with intervals of clouds and sunshine High 93, Low 80
Wednesday – Breezy in the morning; otherwise, humid with intervals of clouds and sunshine High 93, Low 80

NWS: Tomorrow – Partly sunny, High 94, Low 79
Wednesday – Mostly sunny, High 95, Low 78

WB: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 91, Low 80
Wednesday – Partly cloudy, High 92, Low 80

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 94, Low 79
Wednesday – Partly cloudy, High 95, Low 78

FIO: Tomorrow – Humid and mostly cloudy throughout the day. High 94, Low 78
Wednesday – Humid and mostly cloudy throughout the day. High 96, Low 77

Oppressive. Here is a look at the satellite imagery, with clouds across Gulf Coast Texas.

Fayetteville, North Carolina

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

There are a couple of Fayettevilles of note in this country of ours. For today, we will visit the North Carolinian version of the two.

At 953PM, ET, Fayetteville was reporting overcast skies and a temperature of 76, with an incredibly sultry dew point of 73. The exhaustingly humid air was ahead of a line of storms extending from Raleigh to Norman and west towards Norwood, along which there were some severe gusts. These storms would likely inch into Fayetteville before the night was through.
The wet weather is tied to a slowing cold front, associated with the remnants of Cristobal, who is now moving through Hudson Bay towards Baffin Island. This will lend to some lingering showers and storms in and around eastern North Carolina tomorrow, especially in the afternoon. Robust surface high pressure is moving in from the north, but an upper level trough is going to generate a surface perturbation that will ripple along the southern flank of the ridge, and will reinvigorate the threat for showers and storms in eastern North Carolina on Saturday. Unfortunately, that truly crisp air looks unlikely to make a lasting impression.
Tomorrow – Isolated storms, otherwise muggy and mostly cloudy, High 83, Low 74
Saturday – Mostly cloudy, chances of rain and storms, High 83, Low 68

TWC: Tomorrow – Rain showers early with overcast skies later in the day. High 82, Low 70
Saturday – Sunshine and clouds mixed High 84, Low 64

AW: Tomorrow – A thick cloud cover and humid with a couple of showers and a heavy thunderstorm; watch for flooding High 83, Low 72
Saturday – Cloudy most of the time with a shower or heavy thunderstorm in the area; watch for flooding High 85, Low 67

NWS: Tomorrow – Scattered showers, with thunderstorms also possible after 11am. Mostly cloudy High 83, Low 72
Saturday – A chance of showers, with thunderstorms also possible after 2pm. Partly sunny High 84, Low 67

WB: Tomorrow – Cloudy with scattered showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms, High 81, Low 72
Saturday – Partly sunny. A chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon, High 82, Low 67

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with scattered showers, High 83, Low 71
Saturday – Partly cloudy with scattered showers, High 84, Low 67

FIO: Tomorrow – Rain in the morning. High 82, Low 71
Saturday – Partly cloudy throughout the day. High 82, Low 66

Some mixed messaging with the forecasts to round out the week. Rain? No? We’ll see! The radar for tonight continues to look active, though.