Bloomington, Indiana

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

Let’s just keep piling on forecasts. Right now, let’s head to the home of my alma mater’s number 1 basketball rival, Bloomington, home of the (barf) Indiana Hoosiers.

At 153AM, ET, Bloomington was reporting fair skies with a temperature of 67 degrees. Indiana was enjoying a quiet night, however a weak warm front was proving active over Lake Michigan, with a cold front dangled through the Plains and touching off a broken line of severe weather west of the Mississippi. Dew points were in the 60s across Indiana, and ahead of any advancing showers or storms, Sunday will be humid.
The actual wet weather is going to take until early Monday morning, perhaps in the predawn, to arrive in Bloomington. The timing suggests storms will be rain producers, but won’t necessarily bear a severe threat. The boundary will be a fair sight weaker than it is showing tonight, and will disorganize before arriving. This means that Bloomington will likely have a threat for a shower or thunderstorm throughout the day as the region becomes modestly destabilized, rather than withstanding the sharp transition of a front.
Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, with some clouds building late. High 88, Low 67
Monday – Scattered showers and thunderstorms. High 84, Low 69

TWC: Tomorrow – Intervals of clouds and sunshine. High 89, Low 67
Monday – Scattered thunderstorms. Storms may contain strong gusty winds. High 83, Low 67

AW: Tomorrow – Partly sunny and humid High 90, Low 69
Monday – Intervals of clouds and sun with a thunderstorm in the area; humid High 84, Low 72

NWS: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny High 90, Low 69
Monday – Isolated showers and thunderstorms, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 8am. Partly sunny, High 84, Low 71

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny in the morning, then becoming partly cloudy, High 87, Low 69
Monday – Showers likely and chance of thunderstorms, High 82, Low 62

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 90, Low 67
Monday – Partly cloudy iwth chance of thunderstorms, High 85, Low 71

FIO: Tomorrow – Humid and partly cloudy throughout the day. High 88, Low 66
Monday – Rain in the afternoon. High 85, Low 70

The weekend looks ok, but the workweek starts dreary. That qualifies as a good forecast, right?

Florence, Alabama

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

We’re getting our forecasting chops to start August, so it’s a bit too bad that the pattern is so docile. Maybe I should watch what I say before I start tossing out bad forecasts.

At 153PM, CT, Florence was reporting a temperature of 89 degrees with partly cloudy skies, with an isolated thunderstorm close to Huntsville, with even heavier activity to the southeast. A weak over the Smokey Mountains was helping to enflame shower and thunderstorms across the southeastern US, and will leave the threat of storms in the forecast for Florence this afternoon.
There is some upper level structure responsible for this trough, which means there will be some progression. A vast ridge will build in the eastern US, leading to clearing for Florence and a lot of the surrounding area while the trough shifts well off to sea. Expect warming conditions with the bonus sunshine on Sunday. Part of the progressive pattern means low pressure will be able to drop the tail of cold front by Monday afternoon. Expect some locally heavy rains as the storms feast on the hot humid air.
Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 91, Low 69
Monday – Hot, humid with an afternoon thunderstorm, High 92, Low 70

TWC: Tomorrow – Sunshine and clouds mixed. High 93, Low 70
Monday – Mixed clouds and sun with scattered thunderstorms. High 93, Low 75

AW: Tomorrow – Partly sunny and humid High 93, Low 72
Monday – Partly sunny and humid; a thunderstorm in the afternoon High 93, Low 76

NWS: Tomorrow – Patchy fog before 7am. Otherwise, mostly sunny High 91, Low 69
Monday – A 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly sunny High 91, Low 73

WB: Tomorrow – Patchy Fog in the morning. Partly cloudy, High 90, Low 71
Monday – Partly cloudy with a chance of showers and thunderstorms, High 91, Low 74

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 91, Low 69
Monday – Partly cloudy with chance of storms, High 91, Low 73

FIO: Tomorrow – Humid and mostly cloudy throughout the day. High 91, Low 67
Monday – Humid and partly cloudy throughout the day. High 91, Low 72

It’s clearing out pretty well for the afternoon in Florence. It looks like the weekend will be good for outdoor activities.

Boulder, Colorado

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

It’s Friday, bit I still have this forecast for Boulder to shoulder.

At 1120AM, MT, Boulder was reporting a temperature of 86 degrees with partly cloudy skies. There were air quality alerts in the mountains and front range, with red flag warnings along the Kansas and Wyoming borders. Meanwhile, there were a couple of showers beginning to bubble up, with heavier activity to the east of Steamboat Springs. The showers and storms today are a product of an upper level trough sweeping through the northern US.
The wave is fairly weak at the upper levels, however given the heat and humidity in the plain, there will be plenty of juice for organization. The low developing in the lee of the Rockies will help reengage dry air in the Boulder area, with a northwesterly flow also likely to exasperate the smoke in the air. At least there should be some cooler temperatures tomorrow, but the sun will let things heat up again on Sunday.
Tomorrow – Partly cloudy and hazy, High 85, Low 62
Sunday – Mostly sunny but hazy, High 92, Low 62

TWC: Tomorrow – Intervals of clouds and sunshine. High 88, Low 62
Sunday – Except for a few afternoon clouds, mainly sunny. High 94, Low 61

AW: Tomorrow – Nice with plenty of sunshine; wildfire smoke will cause the sky to be hazy High 87, Low 66
Sunday – Partly sunny High 92, Low 62

NWS: Tomorrow – Areas of smoke. Sunny, High 88, Low 61
Sunday – Sunny, High 93, Low 59

WB: Mostly sunny. Areas of smoke. High 84, Low 61
Sunday – Sunny, High 91, Low 61

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy with areas of smoke, High 88, Low 60
Sunday – Sunny, High 93, Low 59

FIO: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy throughout the day. High 89, Low 65
Sunday – Clear throughout the day. High 94, Low 64

Take a look at the satellite imagery, and just how milky the image is, even in areas without cloud cover. Another smoky summer season.

Cleveland, Tennessee

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

Cleveland is just northeast of Chattanooga, in the well populated stretch of eastern Tennessee that bumps up against North Carolina and Virginia. My goodness, does Tennessee border a lot of states.

At 105ET, thunderstorms were popping up along I-75, just to the west of Cleveland, though in Chattanooga, thunder and a temperature of 71 degrees with overcast skies. Temperatures across the region where clouds were in place were generally in the low 70s, while sunnier parts of north Georgia had risen to the 80s. Low pressured lingering off the Carolina coast was helping to inspire some extra rainfall at the moment, but will eventually work to pull dry air south.
A dry day is anticipated tomorrow thanks to the machinations on the East Coast, but a sarp trough moving into the center of the country is expected to draw on moisture from the Gulf of Mexico. There won’t be much organization, and it won’t reach the Cleveland area, but by late in the day, expect an increase in clouds and humidity.
Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 88, Low 66
Friday – Increasing clouds, High 88, Low 68

TWC: Tomorrow – Sunny along with a few clouds. A stray afternoon thunderstorm is possible. High 86, Low 64
Friday – Overcast. A stray shower or thunderstorm is possible. High 86, Low 65

AW: Tomorrow – Sun and clouds with a passing shower in the afternoon High 86, Low 65
Friday – Mostly cloudy with widely separated thunderstorms High 68, Low 67

NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 85, Low 63
Friday – A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after 2pm. Partly sunny, High 86, Low 66

WB: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 85, Low 64
Friday – Partly sunny. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. High 85, Low 65

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 81, Low 65
Friday – Partly cloudy, High 86, Low 65

FIO: Tomorrow – Clear throughout the day. High 86, Low 61
Friday – Mostly cloudy throughout the day. High 86, Low 65

It’s probably going to be a bit warm and sticky, but really for early August this is pretty comfortable. See the radar, with rain in Chattanooga, below.

Fayetteville, Arkansas

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

Arkansas has a surprising number of cities that we can drop forecasts for. The Northwestern Arkansas corridor is definitely more lively than one would normally be lead to believe.

At 953PM, CT, Fayetteville was reporting a temperature of 79 degrees with clear skies and dew points also parked in the upper 70s. It is a surely uncomfortable night which will see some haze across the region by morning. There are heat advisories out across the region, except in the Fayetteville area, where terrain and foliage will help blunt the high temperatures.
Low pressure in the Hudson Bay area is the only particularly well organized system in North America, and it is dangling a generally ineffectual boundary through the heart of the country. It is peeling back dew points a bit, and promoting a moist flow through the Lower Mississippi Valley northward, and will continue to do that through the day Sunday. The weak boundary will arrive in town by evening, and may lead to a more comfortable Monday, with isolated thunderstorms a distinct possibility throughout the day on Monday, but also in the evening on Sunday.
Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, afternoon thunderstorms. Humid. High 92, Low 73
Monday – Mostly cloudy, scattered showers and storms, High 89, Low 70

TWC: Tomorrow – Scattered thunderstorms in the morning, then partly cloudy late High 92, Low 72
Monday – Partly to mostly cloudy. A stray shower or thunderstorm is possible. High 91, Low 71

AW: Tomorrow – Sun and some clouds with a thunderstorm in spots in the afternoon High 92, Low 73
Monday – Humid with more clouds than sun; an afternoon thunderstorm High 91, Low 72

NWS: Tomorrow – A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly before 1pm. Partly sunny, High 93, Low 73
Monday – A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, High 92, Low 72

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with chance of showers and thunderstorms in the morning then partly cloudy with slight chance of showers and thunderstorms in the evening. High 90, Low 75
Monday – Partly cloudy with a 50% chance of showers and thunderstorms, High 89, Low 74

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy with a chance of storms, High 93, Low 72
Monday – Partly cloudy with a chance of storms, High 92, Low 71

FIO: Tomorrow – Humid and partly cloudy throughout the day. High 92, Low 73
Monday – Humid and partly cloudy throughout the day. High 89, Low 72

Here is the satellite for the evening, which just shows how clear the skies are to night in the south central US.

Laredo, Texas

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

We’re heading down to the banks of the Rio Grande for our forecast this evening. Typically this time of the year, we can expect some high heat and a little bit of humidity. Is that the case today as well?

At 656PM, CT, Laredo was reporting a brisk 30mph gust with fair skies and a temperature of 84 degrees. Dew points were near 70, and the moisture rich environment provided an atmosphere that was active with precipitation. A line of thunderstorms ran from north of Victoria to north of Laredo. The storms nearest Laredo on the American side of the border are beginning to diminish, because they are driven less by any synoptic feature, but mostly on the diurnal interaction with onshore flow.
A remnant frontal boundary north of the Gulf Coast is leaching some moisture away from south Texas, but is more importantly allowing the space for high pressure to develop over the western Gulf. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will still be possible in Laredo tomorrow, owing less to the onshore flow, and more to the monsoon flowing through Mexico and north towards the dry line and the Front Range. As high pressure builds, it will interrupt the flow of instability into Laredo, and the end of the week projects to be dry, but much warmer.
Tomorrow – Isolated thunderstorms, High 97, Low 75
Friday – Sunny and hot, High 102, Low 78

TWC: Variable clouds with scattered thunderstorms. High 94, Low 75
Friday – Some clouds in the morning will give way to mainly sunny skies for the afternoon. High 101, Low 78

AW: Tomorrow – Humid with times of clouds and sun High 93, Low 75
Friday – Breezy and less humid with times of sun and clouds High 99, Low 77

NWS: Tomorrow – A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 1pm. Mostly sunny High 96, Low 77
Friday – Sunny and hot, (early AM rain) High 100, Low 78

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy in the morning then becoming partly cloudy. A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, High 93, Low 77
Friday – Partly cloudy in the morning, then becoming sunny,, High 100, Low 78

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy with chance of storms, High 95, Low 77
Friday – Mostly sunny, High 100, Low 78

FIO: Tomorrow – Humid and mostly cloudy throughout the day. High 94, Low 75
Friday – Humid and partly cloudy throughout the day. High 98, Low 77

The radar picture below is probably going to be a little less noisy tomorrow, and more so on Friday.

Feature Forecast: Pocatello, Idaho, Feature Forecaster: Doug Iverson

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Joining us today for the forecast is Doug Iverson, the Chief Meteorologist at KPVI in Pocatello, Idaho. Mr. Iverson likes to go by the moniker Doug I. the Weather Guy, and can be found at Twitter @dougiweatherguy. Mr. Iverson is a native to Idaho, and surely has a little extra insight into the weather of Pocatello. Take it away, Doug!

Yay…the weekend is almost here.  The Snake River Plain will see less of that  wildfire smoke and more of that hot sun.

Prescott, Arizona

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

The heat has been extraordinary in the southwest, but Prescott is often in a more favorable weather pattern than their gigantic neighbors to the southeast. How does that translate this time around?

At 753PM, PT, Prescott was reporting a temperature of 80 degrees with clear skies. Some monsoonal rain showers were appearing on radar west of town, and a brisk west wind likely represented outflow, especially given the southeasterly winds of similar magnitude in Kingman. Guidance suggests a stronger ridge tomorrow over the central Rockies, which will stifle the monsoon and lead to a hot dry day in Prescott.
Expect some weakening of the ridge and an amplification of the monsoon. Afternoon and evening thunderstorms will be most common in the higher terrain nearer the New Mexico border, but the coverage is expected to increase on Tuesday. Showers and storms are likely to crop up near Prescott, and it’s tough to leave it out of the forecast for Tuesday.
Tomorrow – Sunny and hot, High 96, Low 68
Tuesday – Isolated thunderstorms, especially after noon, High 89, Low 68

TWC: Tomorrow – Except for a few afternoon clouds, mainly sunny. A stray shower or thunderstorm is possible High 91, Low 70
Tuesday – Some sun in the morning with increasing clouds during the afternoon. A stray shower or thunderstorm is possible. High 89, Low 69

AW: Tomorrow – Partial sunshine with a thundershower in spots in the afternoon High 92, Low 70
Tuesday – Intervals of clouds and sun with a thunderstorm around in the afternoon High 87, Low 70

NWS: Tomorrow – A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after 11am. Mostly sunny, High 93, Low 69
Tuesday – A 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, High 89, Low 69

WB: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy with a 20 percent chance of thunderstorms, High 90, Low 71
Tuesday – Mostly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of thunderstorms, High 85, Low 71

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy with chance of storms High 93, Low 69
Tuesday – Partly cloudy with scattered showers, High 89, Low 69

FIO: Tomorrow – Clear throughout the day. High 93, Low 69
Tuesday – Mostly cloudy throughout the day. High 88, Low 67

I should note that it is 20 degrees cooler in Prescott than it was in Phoenix. Some of it is surely the thunderstorm nearby, seen on radar below.

Saginaw, Michigan

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

The greater Saginaw area is one of the more surprisingly well populated regions out there, in my opinion. Let’s get all those Michiganders a forecast.

At 953AM, ET, Saginaw was reporting fair skies with a temperature of 79 degrees, Clouds were looming just to the northeast, with nearby Midland reporting overcast conditions at the leading edge of a slow moving boundary, which has produced training, flash flooding rains from the central Plains to the Great Lakes. The nearest batch of rain to Saginaw was lingering to the northwest around Houghton Lake. The upper level trough that has led to the persistent rain in the region is finally showing some mobility, as it is strengthening in flow but receding in it’s amplitude. As a result, showers and thunderstorms across Michigan today look to be a little more robust, and a stray severe storm can’t be ruled out.
For all the mechanisms of the upper level trough, it still doesn’t look to be terribly progressive, and will instead pulse from Ontario into the US. Today looks to be the stormiest day of showers and storms, but they will likely recur on Wednesday and Thursday, however without the same vigor. Thursday in particularly looks like precipitation may be absent the thunder, and that much of the day will be sunny.
Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with scattered showers and storms, High 82, Low 68
Thursday – Isolated showers, otherwise cooler with sun, High 76, Low 62

TWC: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy skies early, then partly cloudy in the afternoon. High 83, Low 68
Thursday – Partly cloudy early followed by mostly cloudy skies and a few showers later in the day. High 74, Low 63

AW: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy and humid; a thunderstorm around in the afternoon High 82, Low 68
Thursday – Times of clouds and sun with a shower in the area; cooler High 72, Low 63

NWS: Tomorrow – Showers likely, with thunderstorms also possible after 8am. Mostly cloudy, High 82, Low 69
Thursday – A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly sunny, High 75, Low 63

WB: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, High 81, Low 69
Thursday – Partly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, High 74, Low 65

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with showers likely, High 82, Low 69
Thursday – Partly cloudy with chance of storms, High 75, Low 63

FIO: Tomorrow – Possible light rain overnight. High 82, Low 69
Thursday – Partly cloudy throughout the day. High 74, Low 61

It’s striking to see how cool Saginaw will be, particularly in the wake of our post yesterday about the Pacific Northwest. Below is the radar, with rain over northern Michigan.

Fayetteville, Arkansas

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

The Ozarks are definitely the nicest part of Arkansas, and I think most residents of the other parts of Arkansas would agree with that. Will the weather be just as beautiful?

At 753PM, CT, Fayetteville was reporting a temperature of 81 degrees with overcast skies. A cold front sliced through the Plains, and moisture has been streaming through the region for the last several days. The added rain of the most recent system has led to flash flood watches in northwest Arkansas. Presently, the only band of heavy rain was northwest of Tulsa, with the axis running from Nowata to Guthrie. The narrow band of showers and storms will move very slowly, and perhaps won’t even cross into Arkansas tonight.
There is a trough across the northern US that is particularly strong for late June, and it’s angle is so severe that it is having a difficult time propagating. Further preventing much motion is the pattern is the strong ridge fostering the record heat in the Pacific Northwest. With little structural change, the peak June sun will help weaken the jet flow, but not the curvature of the trough. Showers and storms will be a possibility through the next couple of days, though with less organization. Intensity may not wane, however, as day time heating could lead to more torrential downpours. The boundary will weaken, but the fuel reservoir will deepen.
Tomorrow – Scattered showers and storms, High 84, Low 70
Monday – Isolated thunderstorms, High 86, Low 71

TWC: Tomorrow – Thunderstorms likely. Storms may contain strong gusty winds. High 83, Low 69
Monday – Variable clouds with scattered thunderstorms. High 85, Low 69

AW: Tomorrow – Periods of rain and a thunderstorm High 84, Low 72
Monday – Mostly cloudy and humid; a thunderstorm in the afternoon High 84, Low 69

NWS: Tomorrow – Showers and possibly a thunderstorm, High 84, Low 70
Monday – Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm. Partly sunny, High 84, Low 70

WB: Tomorrow – Showers likely and scattered thunderstorms, High 81, Low 73
Monday – Showers likely and scattered thunderstorms, High 83, Low 71

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy with showers likely, High 84, Low 70
Monday – Partly cloudy with showers likely, High 84, Low 70

FIO: Tomorrow – Rain in the morning. High 82, Low 70
Monday – Possible light rain in the afternoon and evening. High 84, Low 69

Rain isn’t close to Fayetteville at the moment, but more rain is coming, even if they miss this round.