Roanoke, Virginia

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

We’ve made it to October. The leaves are changing, and the weather is cooling down. Pumpkin spice everything.

At 1154PM, ET, Roanoke was reporting clear skies and a temperature of 61 degrees. High pressure is parked over the mid-Atlantic, which is good news, because it is directing Hurricane Sam well away from land, and is going to lead to a very nice start to the weekend.
There are two strong jet streaks over the continent, including one in the Canadian Maritimes and another from western Canada to the Canadian Prairies. Between, the flow aloft is contorted into a trough over the Upper Midwest, but is not partnered with vigorous flow. It is reflected by a fairly weak system moving from the Upper Midwest towards the Mid-Atlantic by Sunday. Scattered showers over the Mississippi Valley will struggle to by pass the Appalachians. The weakening low will drift into the eastern Great Lakes, but the mountains and the ridge will keep Roanoke dry through the weekend.
Tomorrow – Sunny, High 82, Low 52
Sunday – Mostly cloudy, High 80, Low 59

TWC: Tomorrow – Sunny, along with a few afternoon clouds. HIgh 84, Low 54
Sunday – Partly cloudy skies during the morning hours will become overcast in the afternoon. High 83, Low 61

AW: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny; a beautiful start to the weekend High 83, Low 54
Sunday – Some sun, then turning cloudy High 83, Low 62

NWS: Sunny, High 83, Low 55
Sunday – A slight chance of showers after 2pm. Mostly sunny High 82, Low 60

WB: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 82, Low 57
Sunday – Mostly sunny, a slight chance of showers in the afternoon, High 80, Low 64

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 83, Low 56
Sunday – Partly cloudy, High 82, Low 60

FIO: Tomorrow -Partly cloudy throughout the day. High 83, Low 53
Sunday – Mostly cloudy throughout the day. High 79, Low 59

It’s really interesting to see the disparity in this forecast from outlet to outlet. Rain just doesn’t seem likely to me. I mean, look at this scene and try to tell me it should rain here.

Greenville, South Carolina

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

Autumn arrives tomorrow, but it always comes a little later to the southeast than the rest of the country. How summery will the end of September be?

At 853PM, ET, Greenville was reporting a temperature of 70 degrees with overcast skies. In the ever unraveling saga of Nicholas, he is finally being dragged north towards the Eastern Great Lakes, but a plume of remnant moisture extends from western Pennsylvania to central North Carolina. Of more interest is a sharply digging upper level trough that is reaching into the Lower Mississippi Valley this evening. While the remnants of Nicholas are east of the Appalachians, cyclogenesis will be very autumnal thanks to the trough over the next couple of days.
AS the trough rotates a bit and moves east, the latent moisture left by Nicholas will be expressed as widespread showers with some isolated embedded storms. The low generated by the trough is fully evolved, even dropping a cold front that will press through Greenville tomorrow evening. The air behind the front will be dry and refreshing after so many days with rain in the forecast.
Tomorrow – Scattered showers, with thunderstorms more likely in the afternoon and evening. Cooling quickly. High 79, Low 63
Thursday – Sunny and nice, High 76, Low 56

TWC: Tomorrow – Thunderstorms. High 78, Low 64
Thursday – Sunny. Less humid. High 75, Low 54

AW: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with a couple of showers and a thunderstorm; much cooler than recent days High 80, Low 64
Thursday – Nice with plenty of sunshine High 75, Low 54

NWS: Tomorrow – A chance of showers and thunderstorms before noon, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm between noon and 4pm, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms after 4pm. Patchy fog before noon. Otherwise, cloudy, High 79, Low 62
Thursday – Sunny High 76, Low 52

WB: Tomorrow – Cloudy. Patchy fog in the morning. A chance of showers in the morning then showers likely with a chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon. High 78, Low 63
Thursday – Sunny, High 74, Low 56

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with light showers and chance of storms, High 79, Low 62
Thursday – Sunny, High 76, Low 53

FIO: Tomorrow – Rain in the morning and afternoon. High 77, Low 63
Thursday – Clear throughout the day. High 77, Low 51

All those lows tomorrow are going to be midnight lows. The coming cold front is going to be pretty aggressive. Just this weak smattering across the area right now.

Columbus, Ohio

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

It’s time for a forecast in one of our oldest friends. Early in the site’s history we went to Columbus for our forecasts with stunning regularity. We should have a good handle on this, right?

At 851PM, ET, Columbus was reporting mostly cloudy skies with a temperature of 78 degrees. Much of the region is seeing clear skies, A strong, early autumn trough is rotating through the Upper Midwest, while the remnants of Nicholas bring quite a bit of rain to the southeast. Some of that rain fall and moisture is and will continue to be dragged north to the Ohio Valley. At present, there are a few scattered showers over Indiana and Eastern Kentucky, though nothing has filtered into Ohio yet.
A strong ridge on the east coast will shift a bit eastward, helping to enhance the southerly flow towards Columbus, and making the threat of Nicholas related rainfall more likely on Monday. Fortunately, the storm and the attendant precipitation are weaker than they have been. The cold front will charge eastward and will arrive on Tuesday evening. Severe weather may not be the order of the day, but after the forecast period is through, expect a significant change to the weather when the front has passed by.
Tomorrow – Scattered showers with isolated embedded storms, but mostly cloudy otherwise, High 83, Low 68
Tuesday – Rain, increasing late. cooler, High 78, Low 64

TWC: Tomorrow – Cloudy. A stray shower or thunderstorm is possible. High 84, Low 68
Tuesday -0 Rain showers in the morning with scattered thunderstorms arriving in the afternoon. high 78, Low 67

AW: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy and warm; a thunderstorm in spots in the afternoon High 82, Low 67
Tuesday – Mostly cloudy with a stray thunderstorm in the afternoon High 77, Low 64

NWS: Tomorrow – A slight chance of showers before 10am, then a chance of showers after 1pm. Mostly cloudy, High 83, Low 68
Tuesday – Showers likely, then showers and possibly a thunderstorm after 2pm High 78, Low 68

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy, a slight chance of showers in the morning then a chance of showers in the afternoon, High 82, Low 70
Tuesday – Showers likely in the morning, then showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon, High 77, Low 69

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with light rain showers, High 83, Low 68
Tuesday – Mostly cloudy with isolated showers and thunderstorms, High 78, Low 68

FIO: Tomorrow – Overcast throughout the day. High 84, Low 69
Tuesday – Light rain throughout the day. High 76, Low 66

I think wind is going to be a more significant issue than other outlets seem to, and it will be breezy every day. I think it will help force some gaps in the clouds, if nothing else. The clouds are coming already, though.

St. Louis, Missouri

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

Night time forecasts are where the fun is!

At 1151PM, CT, St. Louis was reporting a temperature of 80 degrees with clear skies. St. Louis was between two major systems tonight, with Hurricane Nicholas sliding along the Texas Coast to the south, and a fall like area of low pressure moving through the western Great Lakes overnight tonight. High pressure will keep St. Louis dry at least through the morning.
Nicholas will spiral eastward after landfalling, while the cold front from the northern feature will sink south. The boundary will pass through St. Louis late in the evening on Tuesday, with isolated thunderstorms continuing until after midnight. The full impact of this front will be blunted by Nicholas intercepting a lot of the moisture attempting to filter northward. Wednesday looks pretty OK after the morning showers clear out.
Tomorrow – Isolated thunderstorms in the evening, High 90, Low 72
Wednesday – Morning rain, then clearing, High 81, Low 65

TWC: Tomorrow – Sunny in the morning then increasing clouds with some scattered thunderstorms later in the day. Storms may contain strong gusty winds. High 90, Low 70
Wednesday – Cloudy skies early will become partly cloudy later in the day. A stray shower or thunderstorm is possible. High 81, Low 64

AW: Tomorrow – Very warm and humid with times of clouds and sunshine; caution advised if doing strenuous activities outside (late storms) High 89, Low 71
Wednesday – Humid; cloudy in the morning, then intervals of clouds and sunshine in the afternoon (early storms) High 81, Low 66

NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny, (late storms) High 90, Low 71
Wednesday – A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny High 82, Low 66

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny (Late storms), High 89, Low 71
Wednesday – Mostly sunny, High 80, Low 66

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy with isolated storms, High 90, Low 71
Wednesday – Partly cloudy with chance of storms, High 83, Low 66

FIO: Tomorrow – Rain in the evening. High 91, Low 70
Wednesday – Rain overnight and in the morning. High 81, Low 65

It will be interesting to see how ardently this front moves through. There is definitely a change to the airmass late in the week for St. Louis, but there might not be as much of a show to get there as one might typically expect. You can see the peripheries of both features on satellite.

Jackson, Mississippi

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

The weekend is almost through, and of course, there is more action in the Gulf of Mexico. Will it find it’s way towards Mississippi to begin this work week?

At 754PM, CT, Jackson was reporting a temperature of 76 degrees with fair skies. Dew points were high across the region, but wind should be strong enough that fog doesn’t settle in across the region overnight. The northern edge of the sphere of Nicholas’s influence is visibly over southern Mississippi, and the threat of showers and storms will return early tomorrow, when daily insolation gets started.
Model guidance is, at this moment, dangerously disparate. Some guidance drives the storm into southern Texas, and leaves Jackson unbothered. The preponderance of information out there has the storm bounce a bit to the east and hold together until landfall further north, near Houston. In this eventuality, heavy rain will arrive late on Tuesday. This seems like the most likely outcome, unfortunately, and rain, often heavy, will be kept in the forecast.
Tomorrow – Isolated showers and thunderstorms, High 84, Low 70
Tuesday – Increasing rain, heavy late, high 82, Low 68

TWC: Tomorrow – Cloudy. High 84, Low 71
Tuesday – Considerable cloudiness with occasional rain showers. High 82, Low 72

AW: Tomorrow – Humid with intervals of clouds and sun; a thunderstorm in spots in the afternoon High 84, Low 71
Tuesday – Cloudy and humid; a thunderstorm in spots in the afternoon High 84, Low 71

NWS: Tomorrow – A 50 percent chance of showers, mainly after 9am. Mostly cloudy, High 83, Low 71
Tuesday – A slight chance of showers, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms after 1pm. Mostly cloudy, High 82, Low 72

WB: Tomorrow – 40% chance of rain showers, High 82, Low 72
Tuesday – Slight chance of showers in the morning, then a chance of showers and a slight chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon, High 84, Low 72

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with scattered showers, High 83, Low 71
Tuesday – Mostly cloudy with scattered showers, High 82, Low 72

FIO: Tomorrow – Humid and overcast throughout the day. High 83, Low 70
Tuesday – Rain in the evening. High 82, Low 70

It’s going to be interesting to see exactly where Nicholas wanders off to. There is even some speculation on it’s pace. Generally, there isn’t much certainty. You can see it’s outer reaches in southern Mississippi below.

Redding, California

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

As is definitely the case across the west, northern California continues to withstand one of the worst droughts the country has seen, perhaps since the Dust Bowl. The fire season has been particularly devastating just to the south of Redding in recent years. With that as a backdrop, lets hope for weather that is favorable to fire fighting efforts.

At 653AM, PT, Redding was reporting clear skies wit smoke and a temperature of 69 degrees. Dew points in the Central Valley were higher than most northern Californians are accustomed to, hanging out in the mid 60s. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are expected this afternoon, thanks to a short waved low rotating through southern Oregon. Unfortunately, it looks backed by more energy than moisture, and as a result, red flag warnings are out for the northern California Sierras, as lightning may touch off more fires.
After the energetic bundle shifts out, the exit region of an upper level jet will remain in place along the Oregon/California border. High clouds will dot the skies of northern California, while cool, autumnal conditions will be just out of reach. Flow will be from the west, which will hopefully allow some smoke in the region to clear.
Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 93, Low 62
Sunday – Mostly sunny, High 96, Low 60

TWC: Tomorrow -A mainly sunny sky. High 92, Low 65
Sunday – Intervals of clouds and sunshine. High 95, Low 62

AW: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny and hot; smoke from area fires will lead to poor air quality High 94, Low 62
Sunday – Sunshine and hot; possible danger of dehydration and heat stroke while doing strenuous activities High 97, Low 60

NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny High 93, Low 65
Sunday – Mostly sunny, High 95, Low 64

WB: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 94, Low 65
Sunday – Mostly sunny, High 97, Low 63

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 92, Low 65
Sunday – Mostly sunny, High 95, Low 64

FIO: Tomorrow- Clear throughout the day. High 95, Low 70
Sunday – Clear throughout the day. High 97, Low 66

Here is the morning satellite imagery from Redding. It’s pretty cloudy to the north, and it’s tough to pick out individual smoke plumes. The smoke is there though.

Columbia, South Carolina

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

It’s a two forecast day here on September 8th. Let’s see if we can forecast better here than in Florida.

At 1056PM, ET, Columbia was reporting mostly cloudy skies and a temperature of 72. A slow moving cold front lay across the South Carolina Upstate, and was inching southeastward. Showers and storms have mostly wound down for the night, but the boundary’s presence will not allow anyone to take more rain out of the forecast.
Tropical Storm Mindy sits over the northeastern Gulf, and will track toward the Carolinas by tomorrow afternoon, forecast to take a path south of Charleston, if it holds together as well as some guidance projects. Regardless of the storm’s strength tomorrow, there will be an increased threat of rain and storms with isolated tornadoes as circulation passes south of Columbia. On the positive side, the organization will help clear the region out more swiftly, and Friday looks like a dry day.
Tomorrow – Scattered showers and embedded thunderstorms. Tornadoes possible in the area, High 84, Low 70
Friday – Becoming sunny, High 84, Low 64

TWC: Tomorrow – Showers early then scattered thunderstorms developing later in the day. High 81, Low 70
Friday – Partly cloudy skies. High 83, Low 61

AW: Tomorrow – Times of clouds and sun with a couple of showers; humid High 83, Low 72
Friday – Beautiful with times of clouds and sun High 84, Low 62

NWS: Tomorrow – A chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 9am. Mostly cloudy, High 84, Low 72
Friday – Sunny, High 86, Low 63

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy in the morning then becoming partly sunny. A chance for showers and thunderstorms. High 82, Low 72
Friday – Sunny, High 82, Low 63

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy with a chance of storms, High 84, Low 72
Friday -Mostly sunny, High 85, Low 63

FIO: Tomorrow – Humid and mostly cloudy throughout the day. High 83, Low 70
Friday – Clear throughout the day. High 84, Low 63

I feel pretty confident that there will be showers and storms in Columbia tomorrow, to some degree. It appears our computer overlords at Forecast.io disagree. Showers are winding down for the evening.

Tampa, Florida

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

We’re headed to Florida for the second time in a row, and headed a bit closer to the ocean. Can you believe people live in cities that don’t touch the sea in Florida?

At 353PM, ET, Tampa was reporting a temperature of 93 degrees with mostly sunny skies. The interaction of three primary features will dictate the weather through the end of the work week in Tampa: Hurricane Larry in the north Atlantic, surface feature southwest of Tallahassee, and low pressure in eastern Canada. At this time Larry and the tropical low are helping steer much moisture away from Tampa, and south Florida is fairly clear this afternoon, aside from patchy clouds near the coasts.
Larry and the low in the Gulf will interact with the Canadian feature, which is presently dangling a cold front through the southeastern US. The boundary will tap into the moisture of the low, and increase the thunderstorm threat tomorrow in Tampa. Larry will stall the boundary over the Atlantic, and turn to be subsumed by the Canadian Low. This will cause the boundary to stall across Florida, but will also interrupt the length of the boundary. Forward momentum and shear will be lost, but some scattered showers and storms will still be able to tap into the sea breeze and local moisture on Friday.
Tomorrow – Scattered thunderstorms, High 89, Low 78
Friday – Isolated storms, High 89, Low 78

TWC: Tomorrow – Showers early, becoming a steady rain later in the day. High 86, Low 78
Friday – Mixed clouds and sun with scattered thunderstorms. High 88, Low 77

AW: Tomorrow – Intervals of clouds and sunshine with a thunderstorm; breezy High 87, Low 78
Friday – Widely separated morning thunderstorms; otherwise, mostly cloudy High 89, Low 77

NWS: Tomorrow – Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Mostly sunny High 88, Low 78
Friday – Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Mostly sunny High 89, Low 77

WB: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy with scattered showers and thunderstorms, High 86, Low 78
Friday – Partly cloudy with scattered showers and thunderstorms High 88, Low 77

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy with scattered storms, High 86, Low 76
Friday – Partly cloudy with scattered showers, High 89, Low 76

FIO: Tomorrow – Humid and partly cloudy throughout the day. High 87, Low 77
Friday – Humid and mostly cloudy throughout the day. High 89, Low 77

I think a lot o these forecasts are too cool for tomorrow. I don’t think it will be as rainy as many suspect, and it hit the 90s today. We shall see. Here is the local satellite, with low pressure in the northeast Gulf, and clouds ringing the peninsula.

Gainesville, Florida

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

Hey gang! Happy Labor Day, I hope you are enjoying this last breath of summer. Of course, it goes along with the first real weekend of college football, so one foot in the summer, one in the fall, and I think Gainesville is a good nexus for that. Warmth and college football.

At 1253AM, ET, Gainesville was reporting clear skies and a temperature of 75 degrees. Generally pleasant conditions were in place across the Sunshine state, with a few spots of clouds. Morning haze is probably on the horizon, given the typically high dew points and the clear overnight conditions. Low pressure was present in the Gulf of Mexico, but it doesn’t pose a likely tropical threat.
Flow, however, was derived in part from the low in the Gulf, and was associated with via a long range of baroclinicity, with a system in Canadian Maritimes. The southwest to northeast flow is going to be a fixture over north Florida for the week. The threat for showers and thunderstorms will increase later in the week, but some pop up afternoon storms will be possible on Monday and Tuesday as well.
Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, with isolated thunderstorms, High 92, Low 72
Tuesday – Scattered showers with thunderstorms, High 91, Low 72

TWC: Tomorrow – Except for a few afternoon clouds, mainly sunny. A stray shower or thunderstorm is possible. High 89, Low 71
Tuesday – Partial cloudiness early, with scattered showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. High 90, Low 72

AW: Tomorrow – Periods of clouds and sunshine High 88, Low 71
Tuesday – Sun and some clouds with a thunderstorm in a couple of spots in the afternoon High 88, Low 72

NWS: Tomorrow – A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after 2pm. Mostly sunny, High 91, Low 69
Tuesday – A 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after 2pm. Patchy fog between 7am and 8am. Otherwise, sunny, High 90, Low 72

WB: Tomorrow – Patchy fog in the morning. Partly cloudy with a chance of showers and a slight chance of thunderstorms, High 88, Low 72
Tuesday – Sunny in the morning then partly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. High 88, Low 73

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy with isolated thunderstorms, High 90, Low 70
Tuesday – Partly cloudy with isolated thunderstorms, High 90, Low 72

FIO: Tomorrow – Humid and partly cloudy throughout the day. High 89, Low 72
Tuesday – Possible light rain in the evening. High 87, Low 73

All of us are dancing around the same numbers. I am going warmer this afternoon, but others don’t believe the guidance like me. Anywho, here is the satellite imagery for this evening across Florida. Not much that far south.

Madera, California

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

We’re off to the central Valley of California today, to reexamine one of the ongoing hardships wrought upon our planet this summer. Drought continues in California, with fires east of the Madera area. Is there hope on the way?

At 1153AM, PT, Madera was reporting sunny skies and a temperature of 87 degrees. There was a heat advisory in place for the central Valley and the southern California high country along the Nevada border was under an excessive heat watch. High pressure on the west coast was particularly robust and allowing of the abnormal heat.
Low pressure is spiraling independently in the eastern Pacific, and it will give a guide to the shape of the surface ridge through the next couple of days. It will ride well off shore north to the Gulf of Alaska low and begin to merge with that feature. the ridge in the west will change generally unchanged, but the onshore will carry over the Coastal Range and only make it hotter by Monday.
Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 101, Low 58
Monday – Mostly sunny, High 103, Low 59

TWC: Tomorrow – Sunshine High 102, Low 58
Monday – Sunshine and clouds mixed High 104, Low 62

AW: Tomorrow – Sunny and hot; danger of dehydration and heat stroke if outside for extended periods of time High 99, Low 59
Monday – Mostly sunny and hot; danger of dehydration and heat stroke if outside for extended periods of time High 103, Low 63

NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny, high 98, Low 61
Monday – Mostly sunny and hot High 101, Low 65

WB: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 99, Low 62
Monday – Mostly sunny, High 103, Low 65

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 99, Low 59
Monday – Mostly sunny, High 102, Low 64

FIO: Tomorrow – Clear throughout the day. High 98, Low 63
Monday – Clear throughout the day. High 101, Low 67

A look at the satellite imagery shows smoke in the clouds across the Sierras, but not much in the way of onshore cloud cover.