Colorado Springs, Colorado

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

In terms of the weather, and especially in the spring, many systems originate in the lee of the Rockies, right here in eastern Colorado. Let’s check out what is getting started over the next couple of days.

At 1054PM, MT, Colorado Springs was reporting a temperature of 27 degrees with clear skies. A vast trough over much of the western 2/3rds of the country is keeping things unseasonably cool. Within the trough, a weak wave has brought light precipitation to the upper Midwest, with a cold front extending to a knot of precipitation centered over Wyoming. At this time, all snow is being penned north of the Palmer Divide, however the entrance of the broad trough is partially responsible for this low, and will give the feature a bit of emphasis in the coming days.
Despite the snow currently just over the state line in Wyoming, it will take until late tomorrow afternoon for the snow to reach Colorado Springs. Snow will continue intermittently, as the forcing mechanism will struggle to traverse the divide, and will be oriented west to east across the foothill of the Rockies. The boundary will stall across southern Colorado, but precipitation is going to be light. The lingering clouds and flow off the Divide will help prevent a massive cool down, but Thursday will certainly be chillier.
Tomorrow – Increasing clouds with snow late, High 35, Low 16
Thursday – Scattered snow showers, lighter in the afternoon, High 19, Low 5

TWC: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy skies during the morning hours will give way to occasional snow showers in the afternoon. High 30, Low 13
Thursday – Cloudy skies with afternoon snow showers. High 19, Low 6

AW: Tomorrow – Sunny to partly cloudy in the morning, then a coating to an inch of snow in the afternoon High 33, Low 12
Thursday – Colder with periods of snow, accumulating an additional 1-3 inches High 17, Low 8

NWS: Tomorrow – Snow, mainly after 2pm. Patchy blowing snow after 4pm. High 32, Low 8
Thursday – Snow showers likely, mainly after 11am. Mostly cloudy, High 19, Low 3

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy Periods of snow in the afternoon. Patchy blowing snow in the afternoon, High 32, Low 13
Thursday – Snow showers likely. Light snow accumulations, High 17, Low 9

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with light snow, High 31, Low 13
Thursday – Mostly cloudy with light snow showers likely, High 18, Low 3

FIO: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy throughout the day. High 34, Low 15
Thursday – Overcast throughout the day. High 22, Low 8

Accuweather has a storm total of 4-8 inches of snow in Colorado, while Forecast.io doesn’t have any snow in the forecast. One of them will be wrong. All told, I think 2-4″ of fluff is the most likely scenario in Colorado Springs.

New Haven, Connecticut

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

I love the spring. Winter is such a long slog, and then you start getting this taste of warmth that brings along the first thunderstorm activity of the year. Even when it’s colder, you can bet it’s going to be interesting. Let’s knock out this likely entertaining forecast.

At 453PM, ET, New Haven was reporting sunny skies and haze. An occluded feature over Newfoundland is extending a cold front just to the south of Long Island. This boundary runs further to the east southeast and intersects a more vigorous feature centered over the Ozarks. The resulting languid pace of the boundary south of town will lead to high humidity, and clouds and overnight fog for New Haven in the immediate future.
The stronger low to the western low will progress northeastward, buoyed by a rapidly propagating, strong jet perturbation, will moves swiftly to the northeast. The front will back up and move north through New Haven, but without much moisture within the feature. A little bit of rain is possible overnight, but a warm early afternoon will follow. The cold front will arrive in the late evening, perhaps shortly after sunset, and will bring showers and thunderstorms. Precipitation will wrap up quickly, but Tuesday will be breezy and much colder,
Tomorrow – Early showers, late showers and thunderstorms with some breezy conditions. High 57, Low 45
Tuesday – Clouds clearing early, with breezy and chilly conditions. High 49, Low 32

TWC: Tomorrow – Cloudy skies with periods of rain later in the day. High 56, Low 48
Tuesday – Mostly sunny skies. High 51, Low 37

AW: Tomorrow – Cloudy and mild; a little rain late in the afternoon High 59, Low 49
Tuesday – Cooler with clouds yielding to sun (early rain) High 52, Low 34

TWC: Tomorrow – Showers likely, mainly after 4pm. Increasing clouds, High 57, Low 46
Tuesday – Sunny High 51, Low 34

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy in the morning then partly sunny with a slight chance of showers in the afternoon, High 55, Low 48
Tuesday – Sunny, High 50, Low 31

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with light showers likely, High 57, Low 46
Tuesday- Mostly sunny, High 46, Low 36

FIO: Tomorrow – Rain overnight and in the evening. high 59, Low 46
Tuesday – Possible light rain overnight. High 53, Low 35

The description of the precipitation is pretty different across the board, from the amount and intensity to the timing. No two forecasts are alike. Not much on the local radar display right now.

Chicago, Illinois

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

The Chicago area covers a lot of territory, and even covers some smaller microclimates, wrapping around Lake Michigan as it does. The site we use to verify defaults to Chicago-Midway, so we will as well. Just know, what happens at Midway doesn’t always happen at O’Hare.

At 829PM, CT, Chicago Midway was reporting a snow with fog and low clouds. A vigorous southwest to northeast trough runs from Texas to the Great Lakes, and a perturbation in the Upper Midwest has led to a surface feature that is presently organizing over western Kentucky, extending an inverted trough through northern Illinois and bringing the snow that is being seen in the region. The low will continue to organize and jet off to the northeast, pressed on by the swift flow aloft.
After the surface system and abetting upper level perturbation aloft shift out of the region overnight tonight, expect clearing to take hold. The jet to the south will remain in place, keeping any hope for warmth at bay through the weekend, but the swift flow aloft will lead to some mid to high level clouds, which will keep it a couple of degrees warmer overnight. After flurries end early tomorrow morning, Chicago will be brisk but dry through Saturday.
Tomorrow – Early AM Flurries, then a bit brisk, mostly cloudy, High 30, Low 21
Saturday – Partly cloudy, breezy, High 36, Low 20

TWC: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy skies. A few flurries or snow showers possible. High 29, Low 24
Saturday – Sunny skies High 36, Low 18

AW: Tomorrow – A couple of flurries early in the morning; otherwise, mostly cloudy and cold; watch for icy spots in the morning High 29, Low 23
Saturday – Mostly sunny; breezy in the afternoon High 36, Low 19

NWS: Tomorrow – A chance of snow between 8am and 2pm, then a chance of flurries after 2pm. High 29, Low 23
Saturday – Sunny, High 33, Low 18

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy and a chance of flurries and a slight chance of light snow in the morning, High 27, Low 22
Saturday – Sunny, High 32, Low 18

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers, High 28, Low 25
Saturday – Sunny, High 34, Low 20

FIO: Tomorrow – Foggy overnight and in the morning. High 29, Low 20
Saturday – Clear throughout the day. High 34, Low 16

A little snowy in Chicago, but we are at the end of it. Only The Weather Service specifically directs to Midway in their forecast offerings, so we will see if that has any bearing on how things turn out.

Lima, Ohio

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

Sure I’m up late, but the Olympics are in Beijing, and on TV at all the wrong times. Speaking of the Olympics, these are the winter games, and Lima will get pretty wintry as we wrap up the week.

At 1253AM, ET, Lima was reporting a temperature of 37 degrees with mostly cloudy skies. The southern end of a Canadian trough is moving through the Lima area tonight, but will be out of the hair of Lima residents entirely by the time the sun rises. It will shine brightly as clouds associated with the area of low pressure will shift northeast.
The next feature is a Clipper already forming in the Canadian High Plains. The heart of the feature will move through Wisconsin and Michigan on Friday, but the tailing cold front will sweep through northern Ohio. Snow is likely to arrive on Friday, heavily at times around noon, but mixed a bit with rain initially. It will then get colder with a few flurries possible through the afternoon.
Tomorrow – Clearing, but still partly cloudy, High 37, Low 30
Friday -Rain mixing with snow, around midday, flurries late, High 42, Low 28

TWC: Tomorrow – Cloudy skies, early snow, High 36, Low 31
Friday – Cloudy with periods of light rain, High 41, Low 27

AW: Tomorrow – A couple of morning flurries; otherwise, cloudy and colder High 38, Low 31
Friday – Breezy and milder; sun and areas of high clouds in the morning, then a mix of snow and rain in the afternoon High 40, Low 26

NWS: Tomorrow – A 20 percent chance of snow showers. Cloudy, High 33, Low 25
Friday – Snow before 8am, then rain and snow between 8am and 11am, then rain after 11am High 41, Low 24

WB: Tomorrow – Cloudy with a 20 percent chance of snow showers, High 36, Low 28
Friday – Windy cloudy, rain. Possibly mixed with snow in the morning. Then chance of rain in the afternoon. High 40, Low 28

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with slight chance of light snow showers, High 33, Low 24
Friday- Cloudy with light wintry mix, High 40, Low 24

FIO: Tomorrow – Overcast throughout the day. High 34, Low 23
Friday – Light rain starting in the morning. High 40, Low 23

This verification is going to be very interesting. A mixed assortment of precipitation forecasts, as well as questions about the temperature trajectory, especially for Thursday. I’m intrigued. Here is the satellite, with some clouds nosing in from Michigan. This isn’t much, and a more notable system is on it’s way.

Hickory, North Carolina

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

Tonight’s forecast comes to us from a part of the country that just got through a wintry slap in the face. Are things soon to be on the up and up?

At 953PM, ET, Hickory was reporting mostly cloudy skies with a temperature of 32 degrees. a weak area of low pressure was working its way inland from the South Carolina coast. While this emerging feature is bringing the moisture, the already in place cool temperatures will ensure that the precipitation will be frozen, either as light snow, or perhaps a bit of sleet. Hickory should be at the western most extent of this threatening weather, but nevertheless, there is a winter weather advisory in place for the morning.
A southwesterly jet streak at the leading edge of a sharp trough is going to strengthen and draw northeastward. The precipitation tomorrow morning, if there is any, will be shortlived, but the cold air behind the feature will persist through the day. Weak flow will return at the surface as the jet structure becomes muddled aloft. It won’t necessarily be warm in Hickory on Tuesday, but surely, it won’t be as cold.
Tomorrow – Morning sleet, with a little bit of rain to finish, otherwise mostly cloudy in the afternoon High 44, Low 28
Tuesday – Partly cloudy, High 53, Low 26

TWC: Tomorrow – Freezing drizzle in the morning, then mostly cloudy late, High 45, Low 27
Tuesday – Some clouds in the morning will give way to mainly sunny skies for the afternoon. High 54, Low 29

AW: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy and chilly with spotty drizzle High 42, Low 29
Tuesday – Milder with times of clouds and sun High 52, Low 30

NWS: Tomorrow – A chance of freezing rain before 8am, then a chance of freezing rain and sleet between 8am and 10am, then a chance of rain after 10am. Mostly cloudy High 43, Low 29
Tuesday – Sunny, High 51, Low 27

WB: Tomorrow – A chance of freezing rain in the morning. Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain. High 44, Low 30
Tuesday – Sunny, High 53, Low 30

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with chance of a light wintry mix, High 43, Low 28
Tuesday – Mostly sunny, High 51, Low 27

FIO: Tomorrow – Possible light rain in the morning and afternoon. High 44, Low 30
Tuesday – Clear throughout the day. High 52, Low 28

The Weather Service and Forecast.io agree with me: The clouds are going to slow down the cooling tonight, and it will actually be colder on Tuesday morning. Other than that, only Accuweather’s precipitation forecast really stands out. Here is the radar tonight, with precipitation falling as rain in South Carolina (where it is being noted)

Amarillo, Texas

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

Amarillo is Spanish for “yellow” and was likely named as such because the yellow wildflowers of the region. Now you have learned something.

At 1253PM, CT, Amarillo was reporting a temperature of 57 degrees with clear skies. Dry air was present in west Texas, with dew points lingering in the low 10’s, and at Amarillo, it was 11. This sun and dry air will lead to some relatively balmy high temperatures this afternoon. Radar noted some precipitation coming out of New Mexico, but given the low dew points in the region and a lack of observations reflecting the precipitation, it was unlikely any was reaching the ground.
A deep digging upper level trough is generating the clouds and false radar returns in the region, and while low pressure will organize as the trough presses towards the Gulf of Mexico, precipitation will not really blossom until the system can access Gulf moisture, well beyond the ability to influence Amarillo. Monday will be chilly, but with a few morning clouds. A stronger, advancing feature from the Rockies will start to move into the region late on Tuesday. Precipitation will hold off until after midnight, but clouds and a promise of winter weather will encroach on Tuesday night.
Tomorrow – Sunny, High 68, Low 32
Tuesday – Increasing clouds. Cooler, High 50, Low 35

TWC: Tomorrow – Plentiful Sunshine, High 67, Low 29
Tuesday – Windy with increasing cloudy, High 49, Low 33

AW: Tomorrow – Sunshine, High 66, Low 29
Tuesday – Considerable cloudiness and cooler High 44, Low 33

NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 66, Low 31
Tuesday – Mostly sunny High 49, Low 35

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 67, Low 32
Tuesday – Mostly cloudy. Cooler, High 46, Low 34

WN: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 66, Low 31
Tuesday – Partly cloudy, High 49, Lo 34

FIO: Tomorrow – Clear throughout the day. High 66, Low 29
Tuesday – Mostly cloudy throughout the day. High 48, Low 35

That is a pretty dramatic cool down, but take heart. It’s pretty warm there now, though.

Santa Rosa, California

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

We are in the middle of January, and especially those of us on the East Coast are probably pining for some sunny California weather. of course, Santa Rosa is in the North Bay, so we may not be that fortunate.

At 653AM, PT, Santa Rosa was reporting a temperature of 37 degrees with clear skies. There were clouds and fog still lingering to the south over San Francisco and inland towards Modesto, and temperatures there were up to 10 degrees warmer.
There is a weak trough flow in California, which is allowing for the modest on shore flow, bringing enough moisture for some morning clouds and mist along the coast. The trough will strengthen inland over the next couple of days, however, models suggest a lingering coastal trough, perhaps pointing to offshore flow, breezy winds but generally clear skies through mid week.
Tomorrow – Morning clouds and haze possible, High 59, Low 37
Wednesday – Less cloudy and hazy in the morning, a little warmer, High 63, Low 38

TWC: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 59, Low 39
Wednesday – A few clouds early, otherwise mostly sunny. High 63, Low 40

AW: Tomorrow – Times of clouds and sun High 58, Low 38
Wednesday – Partly sunny High 61, Low 40

NWS: Tomorrow – Areas of fog before 10am. Otherwise, mostly sunny, High 60, Low 41
Wednesday – Patchy fog before 10am. Otherwise, mostly sunny High 62, Low 40

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy in the morning, then becoming sunny. areas of fog in the morning. High 58, Low 44
Wednesday – Partly cloudy in the morning, then becoming sunny. High 61, Low 44

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 60, Low 41
Wednesday – Mostly sunny, High 62, Low 40

FIO: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy throughout the day. High 59, Low 42
Wednesday – Partly cloudy throughout the day. High 62, Low 41

Now, for an alternative take, here is KPIX’s Darren Peck with a look at the weather for the Bay Area.

Oxnard, California

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

As I get this post set up and prepped, I would like to note that it was -20 here at the Victoria-Weather offices today. It’s that attitude I get to take to this forecast for southern California.

At 551PM, PT, Oxnard was reporting a temperature of 55 degrees with overcast conditions. A large area of low pressure in the Pacific Northwest was influencing weather across the western US, with a stream of clouds, and some onshore flow over southern California. Oxnard had broken out a bit more than their counterparts to the south, as Los Angeles was also experiencing some early evening haze.
High pressure is going to build back in, but it won’t eliminate the near coastal moisture. Clouds will likely be problematic in higher terrain, but they will just momentarily blot the sun through the weekend in Oxnard. Expect the threat for fog to arise overnight, though not as significantly as will be found to the south. Off shore flow will ensure that the haze doesn’t linger during the day.
Tomorrow – Early haze, mostly cloudy, High 60, Low 50
Sunday – Mostly cloudy, High 67, Low 48

TWC: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy skies. High 59, Low 48
Sunday – Partly cloudy. Strong Santa Ana winds possible. High 67, Low 46

AW: Tomorrow – Clouds giving way to some sun and cool, High 59, Low 47
Sunday – Mostly sunny High 65, Low 47

NWS: Tomorrow – Patchy fog before 10am. Otherwise, partly sunny High 59, Low 46
Sunday – Mostly sunny, High 64, Low 45

WB: Tomorrow – Low clouds and fog in the morning, then sunny, High 60, Low 47
Sunday – Sunny in the morning, then partly cloudy, High 66, Low 48

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 60, Low 46
Sunday – Partly cloudy, High 65, Low 45

FIO: Tomorrow – Clear throughout the day. High 63, Low 49
Sunday – Partly cloudy throughout the day. High 70, Low 51

I’m going to really take a look at those winds on Sunday. I just don’t see it being that breezy in Oxnard. Satellite shows the mid layer clouds as well as a thatch of low clouds and haze south of the Oxnard area.

Trenton, New Jersey

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

Erie is going to go down as a 2021 forecast, so here it is, the first official forecast of 2022.

At 1153PM, ET, Trenton was reporting low clouds and rain, with a temperature of 53 degrees. S cold front over the eastern Great Lakes is being held up by a developing and active area of low pressure. The cold front is backed by a deep cold pool, and that conflict of air mass is helping the low in the Poconos to continue to strengthen. In the short term, this means rain for Trenton.
The initial feature will move towards the Canadian Maritimes, but the upper level dynamics in the region will remain unchanged. A deeper, stronger area of low pressure will emerge in the southeast while the cold front starts to sink towards Trenton. The cold air will arrive before the northeastward moving low pressure center, and as a result, snow is anticipated, at the very least to mix in on Monday, particularly around midday. This second feature is going to be stronger, windier as well as being more quickly moving. By the end of the day, it will be quite a bit clearer.
Tomorrow – Rain likely through much of the day, High 57, Low 36
Monday – Rain mixing to snow, clearing late, High 36, Low 25

TWC: Tomorrow – Overcast. Slight chance of a rain shower High 59, Low 37
Monday – Scattered snow flurries and snow showers before noon. Becoming partly cloudy later. High 36, Low 23

AW: Tomorrow – Considerable clouds and mild; a little morning rain followed by a passing shower this afternoon High 56, Low 35
Monday – Clouds giving way to some sun and much colder High 34, Low 24

NWS: Tomorrow – A chance of showers before 11am, then a chance of showers after noon. Patchy fog before 11am. Otherwise, cloudy, High 59, Low 35
Monday – Mostly sunny High 34, Low 22

WB: Tomorrow – Patchy fog in the morning. Cloudy with a 40 percent chance of showers, High 59, Low 37
Monday – Mostly sunny, High 37, Low 25

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with light rain showers High 59, Low 36
Monday – Partly cloudy, High 36, Low 33

FIO: Tomorrow – Light rain overnight and in the morning. High 61, Low 35
Monday – Overcast throughout the day. High 36, Low 24

A bold move by other outlets keeping precipitation out of the picture entirely on Friday. Still, and especially with snow flurries, it tends to get everywhere. I don’t think anyone will cut precip out of the forecast on the coast in their forecast for Monday afternoon and evening. Here is all the rain around the region tonight.

nton

Erie, Pennsylvania

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

We are starting the year as urgently as possible, as this forecast will post just as the day turns to 2022. Erie is right in the middle of the south shore of the lake that bears its name, and is susceptible to lake effect snow this time of year. Will Erie start 2022 on a snowy note?

At 1211AM, ET, Erie was reporting a temperature of 47 degrees with light rain. Heavier rain was falling between Erie and Buffalo than in either of those cities, but with temperatures warm enough even at this early hour, the threat for snow to accompany the rain can be ignored. A cold front lies through southern Ontario, helping to generate the few showers on the southeast side of Lake Erie, but a broad, distended area of low pressure stretches along the Ohio Valley, and is a focal point for more robust showers, with some thunderstorms on the south side of this feature.
For at least the next day or so, these two features will run in parallel. The low over the Ohio Valley will slide just to the south of the cold front, holding the boundary in place the whole while. As the Ohio Valley feature shifts into the Canadian Maritimes, the front will start to shift a little bit more to the southeast, bringing about colder air and a significant threat for snow, somewhat amplified by the Lake. After holding steady through the mid afternoon tomorrow, temperatures will get steadily colder, and are likely to be non standard through the weekend.
Tomorrow – Scattered showers, overcast, High 49, Low 42
Sunday – Early rain, followed by snow through the day, High 42, Low 27

TWC: Tomorrow – Showers early, becoming a steady rain later in the day. High 51, Low 38
Sunday – Snow during the morning will transition to snow showers during the afternoon. High 38, Low 25

AW: Tomorrow – A thick cloud cover and mild with a little rain; a wet start to the new year High 50, Low 38
Sunday – Rather cloudy and colder with snow showers, accumulating an inch or two High 39, Low 25

NWS: Tomorrow – A chance of showers before 2pm, then rain likely, mainly after 4pm. Cloudy, High 51, Low 40
Sunday – Rain and snow showers, becoming all snow after 11am. High 40, Low 27

WB: Tomorrow – Cloudy. Patchy fog in the morning. A chance of showers in the morning, then rain in the afternoon. High 50, Low 37
Sunday – Rain showers in the morning. Snow showers. Light snow accumulation. High 37, Low 25

WN: Tomorrow – Cloudy with light rain, High 51, Low 39
Sunday – Mostly cloudy with a light wintry mix, High 39, Low 32

FIO: Tomorrow – Rain until night, starting again in the afternoon. High 47, Low 36
Sunday – Possible light rain (with a chance of 1–2 in. of snow) overnight and in the morning. High 37, Low 22

WeatherNation with a rough start for the year, having the shortest hourly forecast. Of course, it is longer than it used to be, so their forecast is going to be better than we are accustomed to. Radar is most active northeast of Erie. Happy New Year!