San Jose, California

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

I was in Costa Rica just two months ago. The capital and largest city there is also called San Jose, though I suspect the forecasts to begin this week will be a hair different.

AT 753PM, PT, San Jose was reporting partly cloudy skies with a temperature of 54 degrees. Low pressure in the Pacific Northwest is extending a cold front being reflected at the surface approaching Victorville, while a band of clouds is streamed across the San Jose area. Brisk northwesterly winds give evidence that the boundary is through the region already. Heavy snow is expected in the higher terrain in Northern California as the upper level trough remains entrenched and moisture abundant.
As ridging strengthens in the middle of the country, the upper level trough will contort and dig deeper across the Bay area. Precipitation will become less likely, as a deeply distended trough in the northwest has less access to moisture, but unseasonably cold temperatures will be on the order for Silicon Valley, accompanied by blustery winds.
Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy, High 60, Low 45
Tuesday – Mostly cloudy, High 60, Low 45

TWC: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy skies early will become partly cloudy later in the day. High 63, Low 46
Tuesday – Sunshine along with some cloudy intervals. High 63, Low 45

AW: Tomorrow – Cool with times of clouds and sun High 62, Low 47
Tuesday – Partly sunny and cool with a shower in places High 63, Low 45

NWS: Tomorrow – A 20 percent chance of showers after 11am. Mostly sunny, High 62, Low 42
Tuesday – A 20 percent chance of showers. High 63, Low 41

WB: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy. A slight chance of showers in the afternoon. High 61, Low 46
Tuesday – Partly cloudy. A slight chance of showers, High, 62, Low 46

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy with light rain showers, High 63, Low 43
Tuesday – Partly cloudy with isolated showers, High 63, Low 41

FIO: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy throughout the day. High 61, Low 47
Tuesday – Clear throughout the day. High 64, Low 45

A wide array for you to choose form. Who will be right in the end? Satellite shows chaos to the north, and one defined boundary in California.

Omaha, Nebraska

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

Omaha seems an interesting place to forecast for, given recent outlooks for the region. While today, the severe threat is to the south, if it stays there remains to be seen.

At 252PM, CT, Omaha was reporting cloudy skies with light rain with a temperature of 44 degrees. Brisk easterly winds persisted throughout the region, and worked mostly to hold the heaviest rain at bay, at least for the time being. A band of persistent rain showed on radar from Denison, Iowa to Columbus, Nebraska, and would eventually sink through Omaha tonight, A short wave moving through the central Plains had sunk closer to Kansas City, and the coldest, wettest shot was moving through the Omaha region.
This very same system is causing some wet snow in the western part of Nebraska, but it doesn’t seem like enough cold air will cycle far enough to the east for that to be an issue in Omaha before the precipitation wraps up. The short wave means this system is moving fairly quickly, even if the rain training across the region makes that seem counterintuitive. Things will dry out fairly abruptly overnight, with mostly cloudy skies by tomorrow morning. The next shortwave is already presenting itself in the Pacific Northwest, and will approach Omaha by mid week. Tuesday will largely be unseasonably cool but pleasant, while the next round will increase the clouds on Wednesday. An inverted trough could bring light rain to the region on Wednesday afternoon, with the full brunt of the feature waiting until Friday morning.
Tomorrow – A bit of rain before sunrise, then clearing. High 61, Low 43
Wednesday- Clouds increase with a spot of rain late, High 62, Low 45

TWC: Tomorrow – Cloudy skies early, followed by partial clearing (early rain) High 60, Low 41
Wednesday – Cloudy. Slight chance of a rain shower. High 63, Low 41

AW: Tomorrow – Cool; cloudy in the morning, then clouds and sun in the afternoon (AM Rain) High 59, Low 41
Wednesday – Intervals of clouds and sunshine (PM rain) High 63, low 42

NWS: Tomorrow – Cloudy, then gradually becoming mostly sunny (Early rain), High 60, low 43
Wednesday – A 40 percent chance of showers after 1pm. Mostly cloudy, High 61, Low 44

WB: Tomorrow – Decreasing clouds, late rain, High 56, low 41
Wednesday – Mostly cloudy, a chance of showers in the afternoon. High 59, Low 44

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy with isolated showers, high 60, low 42
Wednesday – Mostly cloudy with scattered showers, High 62, Low 42

FIO: Tomorrow – Rain overnight and in the morning.High 59, Low 41
Wednesday – Rain in the evening and overnight. High 62, Low 41

Happy 40th birthday to the Weather Channel! here is a look at the radar from the Omaha region. Very busy!

Baltimore, Maryland

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

I’ve been to Baltimore a couple of times. I saw Oriole Park and the Inner Harbor, and both were a joy. What about the weather, will that be as joyful?

At 1154PM, ET, Baltimore was reporting a temperature of 59 degrees. Clear or fair skies were reported across the mid-Atlantic, with a high amplitude ridge along the coast, merging, but not quite fully in phase, with a strong Bermuda High.
Seasonably strong storm features spun south of Newfoundland, and again over the Upper Midwest, and were connected by mid and high clouds in New England, showing off where the jet structure was strongest. The cold front with the trailing system will press eastward into the ridge, breaking down both the front and the ridge. Clouds will become more likely, as will some coastal haze, which will keep temperatures in check to start the work week.
Tomorrow – Sunny, High 77, Low 55
Monday – Clouds likely, High 70, Low 54

TWC: Tomorrow – Generally sunny High 80, Low 53
Monday – Mostly cloudy skies High 71, Low 54

AW: Tomorrow – Partial sunshine High 79, Low 54
Monday – Intervals of clouds and sun High 70, Low 54

NWS: Tomorrow – Patchy fog before 8am. Otherwise, mostly sunny, High 77, Low 53
Monday – Patchy fog before 11am. Otherwise, partly sunny High 70, Low 54

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 78, Low 53
Monday – Patchy fog in the morning, High 68, Low 53

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 77, Low 54
Monday – Partly cloudy High 70, Low 54

FIO: Tomorrow – Clear throughout the day. High 77, Low 51
Monday – Overcast throughout the day. High 70, Low 53

Head on over to WBAL to see friend of the Blog Tony Pann give the forecast for Baltimore, noting the wide variety of temperatures across Maryland tonight.

Joplin, Missouri

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

The tornado season has been off to a lively start. 2022 has already seen deadly tornadoes, most notably in Winterset, Iowa last month, but fortunately, we haven’t had any that were historic in their catastrophe. As we forecast in Joplin, however, it’s a reminder for all of us to be prepared, especially this time of year, and in this part of the country.

At 753AM, CT, Joplin was reporting clear skies and a temperature of 33 degrees. the late season cold, amid clear skies behind a strong cold front has lead to many frost and freeze advisories in western Missouri, northwest Arkansas, Kansas and Oklahoma. The large area of low pressure responsible for the adventuresome weather in the middle of the country this week is now parked over the Great Lakes. The only satellite evidence in the Plains is a few puffs of clouds from Rockford, Illinois to Topeka Kansas, which will likely not develop into anything, and will certainly leave Joplin alone.
Fortunately, with spring having arrived, the clear skies will mean a warming trend, even with the cold air mass presently in southwest Missouri. A deep trough lies over the northern US, fostering the strong feature referenced earlier, but another ridge is rising through the southern Rockies. By Friday evening, convergence area of the two jets will become active with showers and isolated storms, with low pressure developing in the Lower Mississippi Valley. This will be primarily flow driven, rather than air mass driven, so cold air is not going to arrive in Joplin on Saturday. Because of that, the northwest flank of the storm will still feature a little bit of convection, intermittently on Saturday.
Tomorrow – Increasing clouds, with an isolated shower. Chances increasing late. High 71, Low 45
Saturday – Showers with isolated thunderstorms, mostly cloudy, High 64, Low 48

TWC: Tomorrow – Rain showers in the morning with scattered thunderstorms arriving in the afternoon. High 73, Low 50
Saturday – Sunshine and clouds mixed. High 63, Low 47

AW: Tomorrow – Breezy in the morning; otherwise, cloudy with a shower in spots in the afternoon High 70, Low 49
Saturday – Mostly cloudy and breezy with a passing shower High 63, low 47

NWS: Tomorrow – A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after 8am. Mostly cloudy, High 72, low 49
Saturday – Mostly sunny (early rain), High 61, Low 40

WB: Tomorrow – Breezy. Mostly cloudy with a 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, High 68, low 49
Saturday – Cooler. Partly cloudy. A 20 percent chance of showers in the morning, High 62, Low 50

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy, High 72, Low 36
Saturday – Partly cloudy with light rain showers, High 61, Low 46

FIO: Tomorrow – Overcast throughout the day. High 72, Low 48
Saturday – Possible light rain in the morning High 62, Low 47

Weathernation is going far afield from the rest of the outlets. I had to recheck their low temperature multiple times. Satellite is pretty clear, except for that band of clouds I noted.

San Francisco, California

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

San Francisco is one of the most difficult places to forecast for in California, bracketed alternately by sea and mountains, and set on an undulating peninsula itself. It’s also wonderfully exotic, and among the most interesting places in the world, in my opinion. This could be fun, is what I am saying.

At 156PM, PT, San Francisco was reporting a temperature of 78 degrees under clear skies. A light breeze off the Bay was helping to ensure things remained comfortable, but also was going to be a factor in visibility issues overnight. A ridge was set up across the western US, but had a short enough wavelength that there was no concern yet that this would turn into a long term, problematic feature.
Despite the high pressure through the US, and well agreed upon trough moving through the Pacific Northwest, there is a wide gap in model projections for the San Francisco area. As the low moves into the Northwest, winds will begin southerly tomorrow, and return westerly on Saturday. The southerly winds will bring significantly warmer conditions tomorrow, and the Pacific breezes will cool it right back down for the weekend, all without strong winds or much by way of cloud cover. Guidance is indecisive over how much temperatures will fluctuate, but with wind generally being mild, I’m opting to the more conservative route.
Tomorrow – Sunny and warmer, High 82, Low 53
Saturday – Partly cloudy, High 67, Low 53

TWC: Mostly sunny skies. High 80, Low 49
Saturday – A few clouds early, otherwise mostly sunny. High 65, Low 46

AW: Tomorrow – Very warm with sunshine and patchy clouds High 83, Low 53
Saturday – Sun and areas of high clouds and cooler High 69, Low 51

NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 86, Low 55
Saturday – Mostly sunny, High 70, Low 54

WB: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 79, Low 54
Saturday – Partly cloudy in the morning then becoming sunny, High 67, Low 53

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 85, Low 55
Saturday – Mostly sunny, High 69, Low 54

FIO: Tomorrow – Clear throughout the day. High 83, Low 57
Saturday – Partly cloudy throughout the day. High 64, Low 53

As o e might imagine, the forecasts are all over the map, thanks to the model indecision. One thing that is not all over map, is clouds.

SAn

Jacksonville, Florida

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

A lot of places in Florida seem like straightforward forecasts, but Jacksonville is far enough north, and not as prone to sea breezes on all sides as the rest o the state. What I am saying is, Jacksonville can be a bit more challenging. Let’s investigate, and see if today is as tough as I promised.

At 956PM, ET, Jacksonville was reporting clear skies and a temperature of 62 degrees. The airport was actually the cool spot in the area, with warmer temperatures south and along the coast. High pressure is firmly entrenched in the eastern third of the United States, and there isn’t a cloud in the sky over the Sunshine State.
The ridge will be dislodged through the middle of the week, as a robust trough starts to press out of the Rockies and into the Plains. The skies above Jacksonville will not betray a strong cold front on it’s way towards the city through the day Tuesday and much of the day Wednesday. Some clouds will finally arrive late in Wednesday, with a bit of high overcast, and an increase of winds. The rain and thunder will hold off until Thursday morning.
Tomorrow – Sunny morning haze, High 77, Low 57
Wednesday – Increasing clouds late, with some breeze, High 85, Low 59

TWC: Tomorrow – A mainly sunny sky. High 78, Low 56
Wednesday – Sunshine and clouds mixed. High 85, Low 63

AW: Tomorrow – Plenty of sunshine High 79, Low 54
Wednesday – Breezy with more clouds than sunshine High 84, Low 60

NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 79, Low 56
Wednesday – Patchy fog between 7am and 8am. Otherwise, partly sunny, High 84, Low 63

WB: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 77, Low 59
Wednesday – Patchy fog, mostly sunny, High 83, Low 65

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 79, Low 56
Wednesday – Partly cloudy, High 84, Low 63

FIO: Tomorrow – Clear throughout the day. High 77, Low 58
Wednesday – Mostly cloudy throughout the day. High 80, Low 64

It turns out, it wasn’t a particularly adventuresome forecast. Time will tell if it is difficult. Despite how calm things looks for the next 48 hours in Jacksonville, the middle of the country looks to be pretty in line for another round of severe weather. Cold fronts catch the attention of Floridians, and this week will grab some attention. Right now, it’s a good night for stargazing.

Colorado Springs, Colorado

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

In terms of the weather, and especially in the spring, many systems originate in the lee of the Rockies, right here in eastern Colorado. Let’s check out what is getting started over the next couple of days.

At 1054PM, MT, Colorado Springs was reporting a temperature of 27 degrees with clear skies. A vast trough over much of the western 2/3rds of the country is keeping things unseasonably cool. Within the trough, a weak wave has brought light precipitation to the upper Midwest, with a cold front extending to a knot of precipitation centered over Wyoming. At this time, all snow is being penned north of the Palmer Divide, however the entrance of the broad trough is partially responsible for this low, and will give the feature a bit of emphasis in the coming days.
Despite the snow currently just over the state line in Wyoming, it will take until late tomorrow afternoon for the snow to reach Colorado Springs. Snow will continue intermittently, as the forcing mechanism will struggle to traverse the divide, and will be oriented west to east across the foothill of the Rockies. The boundary will stall across southern Colorado, but precipitation is going to be light. The lingering clouds and flow off the Divide will help prevent a massive cool down, but Thursday will certainly be chillier.
Tomorrow – Increasing clouds with snow late, High 35, Low 16
Thursday – Scattered snow showers, lighter in the afternoon, High 19, Low 5

TWC: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy skies during the morning hours will give way to occasional snow showers in the afternoon. High 30, Low 13
Thursday – Cloudy skies with afternoon snow showers. High 19, Low 6

AW: Tomorrow – Sunny to partly cloudy in the morning, then a coating to an inch of snow in the afternoon High 33, Low 12
Thursday – Colder with periods of snow, accumulating an additional 1-3 inches High 17, Low 8

NWS: Tomorrow – Snow, mainly after 2pm. Patchy blowing snow after 4pm. High 32, Low 8
Thursday – Snow showers likely, mainly after 11am. Mostly cloudy, High 19, Low 3

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy Periods of snow in the afternoon. Patchy blowing snow in the afternoon, High 32, Low 13
Thursday – Snow showers likely. Light snow accumulations, High 17, Low 9

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with light snow, High 31, Low 13
Thursday – Mostly cloudy with light snow showers likely, High 18, Low 3

FIO: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy throughout the day. High 34, Low 15
Thursday – Overcast throughout the day. High 22, Low 8

Accuweather has a storm total of 4-8 inches of snow in Colorado, while Forecast.io doesn’t have any snow in the forecast. One of them will be wrong. All told, I think 2-4″ of fluff is the most likely scenario in Colorado Springs.

New Haven, Connecticut

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

I love the spring. Winter is such a long slog, and then you start getting this taste of warmth that brings along the first thunderstorm activity of the year. Even when it’s colder, you can bet it’s going to be interesting. Let’s knock out this likely entertaining forecast.

At 453PM, ET, New Haven was reporting sunny skies and haze. An occluded feature over Newfoundland is extending a cold front just to the south of Long Island. This boundary runs further to the east southeast and intersects a more vigorous feature centered over the Ozarks. The resulting languid pace of the boundary south of town will lead to high humidity, and clouds and overnight fog for New Haven in the immediate future.
The stronger low to the western low will progress northeastward, buoyed by a rapidly propagating, strong jet perturbation, will moves swiftly to the northeast. The front will back up and move north through New Haven, but without much moisture within the feature. A little bit of rain is possible overnight, but a warm early afternoon will follow. The cold front will arrive in the late evening, perhaps shortly after sunset, and will bring showers and thunderstorms. Precipitation will wrap up quickly, but Tuesday will be breezy and much colder,
Tomorrow – Early showers, late showers and thunderstorms with some breezy conditions. High 57, Low 45
Tuesday – Clouds clearing early, with breezy and chilly conditions. High 49, Low 32

TWC: Tomorrow – Cloudy skies with periods of rain later in the day. High 56, Low 48
Tuesday – Mostly sunny skies. High 51, Low 37

AW: Tomorrow – Cloudy and mild; a little rain late in the afternoon High 59, Low 49
Tuesday – Cooler with clouds yielding to sun (early rain) High 52, Low 34

TWC: Tomorrow – Showers likely, mainly after 4pm. Increasing clouds, High 57, Low 46
Tuesday – Sunny High 51, Low 34

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy in the morning then partly sunny with a slight chance of showers in the afternoon, High 55, Low 48
Tuesday – Sunny, High 50, Low 31

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with light showers likely, High 57, Low 46
Tuesday- Mostly sunny, High 46, Low 36

FIO: Tomorrow – Rain overnight and in the evening. high 59, Low 46
Tuesday – Possible light rain overnight. High 53, Low 35

The description of the precipitation is pretty different across the board, from the amount and intensity to the timing. No two forecasts are alike. Not much on the local radar display right now.

Chicago, Illinois

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

The Chicago area covers a lot of territory, and even covers some smaller microclimates, wrapping around Lake Michigan as it does. The site we use to verify defaults to Chicago-Midway, so we will as well. Just know, what happens at Midway doesn’t always happen at O’Hare.

At 829PM, CT, Chicago Midway was reporting a snow with fog and low clouds. A vigorous southwest to northeast trough runs from Texas to the Great Lakes, and a perturbation in the Upper Midwest has led to a surface feature that is presently organizing over western Kentucky, extending an inverted trough through northern Illinois and bringing the snow that is being seen in the region. The low will continue to organize and jet off to the northeast, pressed on by the swift flow aloft.
After the surface system and abetting upper level perturbation aloft shift out of the region overnight tonight, expect clearing to take hold. The jet to the south will remain in place, keeping any hope for warmth at bay through the weekend, but the swift flow aloft will lead to some mid to high level clouds, which will keep it a couple of degrees warmer overnight. After flurries end early tomorrow morning, Chicago will be brisk but dry through Saturday.
Tomorrow – Early AM Flurries, then a bit brisk, mostly cloudy, High 30, Low 21
Saturday – Partly cloudy, breezy, High 36, Low 20

TWC: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy skies. A few flurries or snow showers possible. High 29, Low 24
Saturday – Sunny skies High 36, Low 18

AW: Tomorrow – A couple of flurries early in the morning; otherwise, mostly cloudy and cold; watch for icy spots in the morning High 29, Low 23
Saturday – Mostly sunny; breezy in the afternoon High 36, Low 19

NWS: Tomorrow – A chance of snow between 8am and 2pm, then a chance of flurries after 2pm. High 29, Low 23
Saturday – Sunny, High 33, Low 18

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy and a chance of flurries and a slight chance of light snow in the morning, High 27, Low 22
Saturday – Sunny, High 32, Low 18

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers, High 28, Low 25
Saturday – Sunny, High 34, Low 20

FIO: Tomorrow – Foggy overnight and in the morning. High 29, Low 20
Saturday – Clear throughout the day. High 34, Low 16

A little snowy in Chicago, but we are at the end of it. Only The Weather Service specifically directs to Midway in their forecast offerings, so we will see if that has any bearing on how things turn out.

Lima, Ohio

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

Sure I’m up late, but the Olympics are in Beijing, and on TV at all the wrong times. Speaking of the Olympics, these are the winter games, and Lima will get pretty wintry as we wrap up the week.

At 1253AM, ET, Lima was reporting a temperature of 37 degrees with mostly cloudy skies. The southern end of a Canadian trough is moving through the Lima area tonight, but will be out of the hair of Lima residents entirely by the time the sun rises. It will shine brightly as clouds associated with the area of low pressure will shift northeast.
The next feature is a Clipper already forming in the Canadian High Plains. The heart of the feature will move through Wisconsin and Michigan on Friday, but the tailing cold front will sweep through northern Ohio. Snow is likely to arrive on Friday, heavily at times around noon, but mixed a bit with rain initially. It will then get colder with a few flurries possible through the afternoon.
Tomorrow – Clearing, but still partly cloudy, High 37, Low 30
Friday -Rain mixing with snow, around midday, flurries late, High 42, Low 28

TWC: Tomorrow – Cloudy skies, early snow, High 36, Low 31
Friday – Cloudy with periods of light rain, High 41, Low 27

AW: Tomorrow – A couple of morning flurries; otherwise, cloudy and colder High 38, Low 31
Friday – Breezy and milder; sun and areas of high clouds in the morning, then a mix of snow and rain in the afternoon High 40, Low 26

NWS: Tomorrow – A 20 percent chance of snow showers. Cloudy, High 33, Low 25
Friday – Snow before 8am, then rain and snow between 8am and 11am, then rain after 11am High 41, Low 24

WB: Tomorrow – Cloudy with a 20 percent chance of snow showers, High 36, Low 28
Friday – Windy cloudy, rain. Possibly mixed with snow in the morning. Then chance of rain in the afternoon. High 40, Low 28

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with slight chance of light snow showers, High 33, Low 24
Friday- Cloudy with light wintry mix, High 40, Low 24

FIO: Tomorrow – Overcast throughout the day. High 34, Low 23
Friday – Light rain starting in the morning. High 40, Low 23

This verification is going to be very interesting. A mixed assortment of precipitation forecasts, as well as questions about the temperature trajectory, especially for Thursday. I’m intrigued. Here is the satellite, with some clouds nosing in from Michigan. This isn’t much, and a more notable system is on it’s way.