Pocatello, Idaho

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

I saw that we are on the cusp of some changes to the pattern in the interior northwest. It is October, so perhaps you can guess what kind of changes those might be.

At 1153AM, MT, Pocatello was reporting clear skies and a temperature of 62. The clear skies were leading to chilly nights with the low dew points, but the sunshine meant temperatures were unbound in the afternoon, and record highs have been dotting the region of late. The low trough off the west coast in conjunction with the ridge has established what is known as a Rex Block, stifling flow in Idaho.
The western US is going to remain under this Rex Block until the weekend, and flow through the region will remain fairly stagnated. Expect some morning haze or smog, especially in the valleys, thanks to the lack of flow at the surface, but continued warm temperatures and sunny skies in the afternoon. Things will be quite a bit different this weekend, however.
Tomorrow – Sunny with haze, High 76, Low 35
Wednesday – Sunny, hazy in the morning, High 73, Low 34

TWC: Tomorrow – Sunny skies High 76, Low 36
Wednesday – Intervals of clouds and sunshine. High 74, Low 35

AW: Tomorrow – Warm with plenty of sunshine High 76, Low 34
Wednesday – Brilliant sunshine and warm with the temperature approaching the record of 78 set in 1950 High 75, Low 35

NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 74, Low 42
Wednesday – Sunny, High 73, Low 43

WB: Tomorrow – Sunny, areas of frost in the morning, High 72, Low 35
Wednesday – Sunny, High 71, Low 36

WN: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 74, Low 42
Wednesday – Mostly sunny, High 73, Low 43

FIO: Tomorrow – Clear throughout the day. High 74, Low 40
Wednesday – Partly cloudy throughout the day. High 72, Low 37

Pretty different forecast lows, but consistent elsewhere. Makes sense when the satellite imagery looks like this. By the way, the change I hinted at in the intro is coming over the weekend. It’s going to get cold and snowy for a lot of the Northwest.

Brownsville, Texas

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

Brownsville is part of a surprisingly well populated stretch in the far southern part of Texas, including Harlingen and McAllen. Brownsville is the furthest south, and closest to the Gulf of Mexico. It also happens to be significantly further from any town, excepting Harlingen and McAllen, than anyone really expects.

At 953AM, CT, Brownsville was reporting a temperature of 83 degrees with clear skies. A dry line was spread through central Texas, and while the Dallas area had dew points in the the 40s, it was already in the mid 70s along the Rio Grande. There was a threat for strong thunderstorms closer to Corpus Christi this afternoon, and some of those shower and thunderstorms flaring south towards Brownsville can’t be ruled out later today. Additionally, Tropical Storm Karl was churning away in the Bay of Campeche. Tropical Storm Warnings extended to Matamoros on the other side of the Rio Grande, but his presence only raised the threat for coastal thunderstorms this afternoon.
Karl is moving southward, expected to landfall near Coatzcoalcos on the Campeche coast, so the attention will be turned to the dry line to the north of Brownsville. Without the counterclockwise rotation from Karl, the dry line will lose it’s potency as well. The dry line dichotomy will linger through the period, but the threat for showers and storms will abate over deep south Texas. As Karl continues to waste away in Central America, Brownsville will be more stable than normal for a hot humid stretch, with mostly sunny skies and temperatures preparing to climb.
Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 90, Low 73
Saturday – Mostly sunny, High 92, Low 73

TWC: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy with afternoon showers or thunderstorms. High 89, Low 73
Saturday – Intervals of clouds and sunshine. High 92, Low 73

AW: Tomorrow – Partly sunny with a thundershower in spots in the afternoon High 90, Low 73
Saturday – Partly sunny and humid; breezy in the afternoon High 91, Low 72

NWS: Tomorrow – A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly sunny High 90, Low 74
Saturday – Mostly sunny, High 92, Low 74

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 89, Low 74
Saturday – Mostly sunny, high 90, Low 73

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 90, Low 74
Saturday – Mostly sunny, High 72, Low 74

FIO: Tomorrow – Humid and partly cloudy throughout the day. High 87, Low 73
Saturday – Humid and partly cloudy throughout the day. High 88, Low 73

Its strange that the driest forecast is the coolest forecast. Strange. Karl is showing up dramatically on the Gulf satellite imagery.

Fayetteville, Arkansas

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

There are two options for Fayettevilles in the United States. I’ve only been to the one in Arkansas, and it is definitely not what you expect in “Arkansas” given the haven of Fortune 500 companies, University and tourism. What kind of weather is coming their way?

At 853PM, CT, Fayetteville was reporting a temperature of 59 degrees with clear skies. It was a continuation of dry weather, and there were burn bans across most of the region. The Ozarks were seeing cooler temperatures than surrounding regions, owing to the terrain of northwest Arkansas.
Surface high pressure is dropping southward within a complicated jet trough. The nature of the troughing pattern is such that precipitation is being inhibited and moisture is being staunched at the Gulf. This will lead to more quiet weather tomorrow, however as the surface ridge sinks south, baroclinicity will arrive across the region, importing some moisture from the monsoon. This isn’t going to lead to a lot of wet weather, but some rain and clouds are possible overnight Monday into Tuesday. Expect a breezier day on Tuesday.
Tomorrow – Increasing clouds with some late rain, High 79, Low 52
Tuesday – Mostly cloudy, with some early showers, High 79, Low 58

TWC: Tomorrow – Some sun in the morning with increasing clouds during the afternoon. (PM storms), High 78, Low 53
Tuesday – Cloudy. Slight chance of a rain shower. High 81, Low 61

AW: Tomorrow – Some sun, then turning cloudy High 77, Low 54
Tuesday – Beautiful with periods of clouds and sun High 79, Low 61

NWS: Tomorrow – Partly sunny, High 80, Low 54
Tuesday – A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms before 1pm. Mostly cloudy High 80, Low 60

WB: Tomorrow – Partly sunny, High 77, Low 56
Tuesday – Mostly cloudy. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms in the morning. High 80, Low 63

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 80, Low 53
Tuesday – Mostly cloudy with isolated storms, High 80, Low 60

FIO: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy throughout the day. High 78, Low 56
Tuesday – Possible light rain in the morning. High 79, Low 60

It’s fun when there is a variety to the precipitation forecasts. We’ll see how it plays out! Not much on satellite right now, but it will likely change in the next 48 hours.

Santa Rosa, California

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

I spent quite a bit of time tweeting @Vic_WX as Hurricane Ian made landfall near Punta Gorda and Fort Myers, Florida. I suggest a follow for discussion on live and breaking news stories like Ian.

Our forecast today will be in the North Bay. Perhaps even further north than just the North Bay, deeper into Wine Country. It’s a gorgeous part of the weather when the temperatures are cooperative. It could go either way in September!

At 153PM, PT, Santa Rosa was reporting clear skies and a temperature of 81 degrees. A trough was dipping into the northern Rockies, riding on the eastern flank of a coastal ridge. Pleasant conditions were found throughout the coast, with an onshore flow keeping temperatures manageable.
Through the forecast period, the low in the northern Rockies will become orphaned from a north riding jet, while the weak ridge at the coast will continue to provide a northwesterly flow. Sunshine will continue, and so to will fairly pleasant, even cooler temperatures.
Tomorrow – Sunny, High 85, Low 51
Saturday – Remaining sunny, but with scattered clouds, High 82, Low 52

TWC: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 86, Low 52
Saturday – Mostly sunny, High 78, Low 52

AW: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 84, Low 52
Saturday – Mostly sunny and pleasant High 79, Low 52

NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 86, Low 55
Saturday – Sunny, High 82, Low 53

WB: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 83, Low 55
Saturday – Partly Cloudy in the morning then becoming sunny. Patchy fog in the morning, High 75, Low 55

WN: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 87, Low 55
Saturday – Mostly sunny, High 81, Low 53

FIO: Tomorrow – Clear throughout the day. High 82, Low 55
Saturday – Clear throughout the day. High 76, Low 52

The satellite shows an almost entirely clear California, save for a little cumulus over the far southern part of the state. Not bad!

New Orleans, Louisiana

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

We’ve had quiet tropics, and the southern US is looking at more quiet weather this week, but even now, more than a week out and with nothing fully developed, the eyes of Louisiana are on the Venezuelan coast, where a tropical feature may develop and threaten the Gulf Coast. What before then? That’s where we come in.

At 856PM, CT, New Orleans was reporting fair skies with a temperature of 86 degrees. The satellite image of the Gulf of Mexico was a little bit murkier than the model analysis, which indicated the tail of a cold front over the northern Gulf, extending from Hurricane Fiona, bearing down on Nova Scotia.
As Fiona presses into the Canadian Maritimes, the attendant boundary will diminish. Low pressure in the Great Lakes will produce a cool front through the Ozarks, advancing southward. Though not expected to be terribly robust, it will be enough to induce an onshore flow, and a return of some clouds and spotty rain showers around New Orleans by Sunday evening.
Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 90, Low 75
Sunday – Mostly sunny, late showers and storms in the area, High 91, Low 74

TWC: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 93, Low 77
Sunday – Sunshine and clouds mixed. A stray shower or thunderstorm is possible. High 94, Low 77

AW: Tomorrow – Sunny to partly cloudy High 92, Low 76
Sunday – Humid with clouds and breaks of sun High 91, Low 75

NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 90, Low 76
Sunday – Sunny, High 91, Low 75

WB: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 90, Low 76
Sunday – Sunny, High 91, Low 76

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 90, Low 76
Sunday – Mostly sunny, High 91, Low 75

FIO: Tomorrow – Humid throughout the day. High 89, Low 76
Sunday – Humid and partly cloudy throughout the day. High 90, Low 75

Pretty consistent numbers across the board, thanks toa fairly quiet pattern, for the time being. The storm near Venezuela was named Ian while I was writing this post. For the moment, he looks like he will curl into the Gulf Coast of Florida, but the most recent GFS has a bit more northerly track than the consensus. It’s all still pretty variable for now. Here is the currently tranquil satellite imagery..

Idaho Falls, Idaho

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

We’ve been dabbling out in the Great Lakes or southeast for so long, it seems about time to hone our skills out west.

At 953PM, MT, Idaho Falls was seeing clear skies and a temperature of 59 degrees. The western US was within a strong upper level trough, which was tiered and producing two separate surface features. A weak low and cold front lay over Canada, and at the base of the deeper trough, a low spun off the California coast. Idaho Falls sat between the two features, and was a position of calm. The trough was squashing monsoonal moisture to the osuth.
The low off the California coast will be the one to follow, as it will track along the existing jet structure. It will take until the afternoon on Wednesday, but it will arrive in eastern Idaho, pulling monsoonal moisture back northward. Rain and some isolated thunderstorms are expected in the evening in Idaho Falls, along with a few blustery gusts.
Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 84, Low 46
Wednesday – Showers in the afternoon with isolated thunderstorms. High 78, Low 47

TWC: Tomorrow – A few clouds from time to time. High 84, Low 45
Wednesday – Partly cloudy in the morning. Thunderstorms developing later in the day High 79, Low 49

AW: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny and warm with the temperature breaking the record of 83 set in 1966 High 84, Low 45
Wednesday – Partly sunny with a thundershower in spots in the afternoon High 77, Low 48

NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny High 82, Low 47
Wednesday – A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after noon. Mostly sunny, High 78, Low 50

WB: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 83, Low 49
Wednesday – Mostly sunny with a chance of rain showers and a slight chance of thunderstorms, High 76, Low 53

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 82, Low 47
Wednesday – Partly cloudy with showers and chance of storms, High 78, Low 50

FIO: Tomorrow – Clear throughout the day. High 81, Low 50
Wednesday – Rain in the evening. High 72, Low 54

There is a big difference between the west and east of the Rockies. When amid a trough out west you can still get record highs. Let’s get the local perspective from KIFI in Idaho Falls

Gadsden, Alabama

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

It’s just a northern Alabama kind of day here at Victoria-Weather. Real question is whether we have learned any lessons since last go around.

At 356PM, ET, Gadsden was reporting mostly cloudy skies and a temperature of 82 degrees. A stalled boundary over the Gulf of Mexico was filtering out a lot of the otherwise typical heat and humidity, and high pressure entrenched in the region was backed by a pleasant air mass.
The prevailing flow will remain northwesterly, which should keep Gadsden relatively pleasant through the beginning of the week. A small perturbation will develop in the Bight of Georgia over the weekend, and stir up showers and storms, but this will additionally serve to staunch humidity in eastern Alabama for the weekend. This perturbation looks significantly less than it did in earlier runs, as it will likely be unraveled by what will then be Hurricane Fiona off the coast. This could lead to more clouds than expected in Gadsden, though it should stay dry.
Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 85, Low 58
Sunday – Partly cloudy, High 86, Low 60

TWC: Tomorrow – A few clouds from time to time. High 87, Low 61
Sunday – A few clouds from time to time. High 87, Low 63

AW: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny; a beautiful start to the weekend High 86, Low 58
Sunday – Pleasant with plenty of sunshine High 87, Low 61

NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 88, Low 60
Sunday – Sunny, High 88, Low 63

WB: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 85 Low 60
Sunday – Sunny, High 86, Low 62

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 88, Low 58
Sunday – Mostly sunny, High 88, Low 60

FIO: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy throughout the day. High 86. Low 61
Sunday – Partly cloudy throughout the day. high 86, Low 61

A lot of of popcorn cumulus across the region, but that’s what you get in the south. The real show is further southeast, and even then, it’s not very interesting programming.

Battle Creek, Michigan

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

One of our most recent forecasts was for Battle Creek, but that doesn’t mean we’ve forecast for Battle Creek recently. Vacation, woo! Back on the horse in Kellogg’s Country.

At 953AM, ET, Battle Creek was reporting a temperature of 59 degrees with overcast skies. Tightly wound low pressure was centered northwest of Manitowoc, Wisconsin, and moisture and clouds blanketed the Great Lakes. Rain showers were for the moment avoiding Battle Creek, though some light activity south of South Bend was on it’s way. Shower activity were retrograding across northern Michigan, indicative of how slowly this disturbance was moving.
The upper trough birthing this surface low is phased with the primary jet stream, found over Hudson Bay. Even though the feature is moving slowly at present, it has motivation to progress to the east, by way of the upper trough. The rain in the area is likely to abate today, with the overcast hanging on through tomorrow, but by Wednesday, clearer, drier air is on it’s way, expected to put a pause on autumn for the time being.
Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy, and a little bit warmer, High 71, Low 49
Wednesday – Clearing and warmer, High 77, Low 56

TWC: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy. Slight chance of a rain shower.High 72, Low 51
Wednesday – Partly cloudy skies. High 78, Low 54

AW: Tomorrow – Intervals of clouds and sunshine with a shower in places High 72, Low 55
Wednesday – Sunny much of the time and nice High 78, Low 55

NWS: Tomorrow – A slight chance of showers before 11am, then a slight chance of showers after 2pm. Partly sunny, High 71, Low 49
Wednesday – Sunny High 78, Low 53

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with a 20 percent chance of rain showers, High 70, Low 51
Wednesday – Mostly sunny, High 76, Low 55

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 72, Low 49
Wednesday – Mostly sunny, High 78, Low 49

FIO: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy throughout the day. High 73, Low 48
Wednesday – Partly cloudy throughout the day. High 78, Low 52

Not exactly the most pleasant scenario, but it could be worse. Battle Creek has avoided the copious rains that this system brought to Chicagoland. Here is a deeper dive from Wood TV’s Matt Kirkwood.

Huntsville, Alabama

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

It’s the very end of August, and instead of enduring the heat, many residents of Huntsville – Rocket City, for it’s close ties to the Space Program – are probably indoors following the launch of the Artemis rocket, which was scrubbed yesterday, but will hopefully be launched when weather improves. Speaking of weather, what IS going to happen in Huntsville?

At 1253PM, CT, Huntsville was reporting a temperature of 82 degrees with mostly cloudy skies. Huntsville was one of the rare spots seeing clouds, but high pressure was building throughout the rest of northern Alabama, a rarity this time of year. A line of thunderstorms through central Alabama precedes the south-building ridge, and is allowing Huntsville to enjoy relatively low humidity.
The ridge is going to remain stout in the southeast, and keep Huntsville dry through the middle of the week. The cold front bringing thunderstorms south of Huntsville presently is going to weaken as it hits the Gulf Coast and become more permeable. Expect humidity to start building back into the region throughout the forecast period.
Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 92, Low 66
Thursday – Partly cloudy, High 92, Low 63

TWC: Tomorrow – Sunny high 91, Low 68
Thursday – Sunny, along with a few afternoon clouds. High 92, Low 62

AW: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny and less humid High 92, Low 67
Thursday – Plenty of sun High 94, Low 62

NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 89, Low 68
Thursday – Sunny, High 91, Low 64

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 89, Low 69
Thursday – Mostly sunny, High 90, Low 63

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 89, Low 67
Thursday – Mostly sunny, High 91, Low 61

FIO: Tomorrow – Clear throughout the day. High 88, Low 67
Thursday – Clear throughout the day. High 89, Low 60

This is a downright delightful forecast for Huntsville. Dew points in the 60s! Here is a pretty steady line of storms off to the south right now.

Benton Harbor, Michigan

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

The metropolitan area is actually Niles-Benton Harbor on most documents, but the airport is at Benton Harbor. How do I title these posts? This is a about as much anxiety as I can get for these forecast post titles.

At 853PM, ET, Benton Harbor was reporting a temperature of 67 degrees with overcast skies. Despite high pressure centered over the Great Lakes, a swath of low level clouds was evident on satellite, stretching from Minnesota to western Pennsylvania. The jet runs directly over the top this shield of low level moisture, and the combination of features suggests the clouds are going to stick for a little while.
The jet itself is ridging across the Great Lakes, and the surface map is representing this rather curiously. A surface low is staking a spot in the middle of the country, while the ridge in western Ontario is not motivated to move either. With the jet not expected to move measurably, the southwest flank of the ridge will erode, and the stability of the region will break down. Clouds will continue in the area, but particularly on Tuesday, some scattered showers are expected to mix in with them.
Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy to overcast, High 75, Low 60
Tuesday – Mostly cloudy, a spot of light rain possible, High 77, Low 61

TWC: Tomorrow – Except for a few afternoon clouds, mainly sunny. High 78, Low 58
Tuesday – Intervals of clouds and sunshine. High 82, Low 60

AW: Tomorrow – Humid with times of clouds and sun High 77, Low 59
Tuesday – Pleasant with times of clouds and sun High 80, Low 59

NWS: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 77, Low 61
Tuesday – Mostly sunny, High 79, Low 59

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny in the morning becoming partly cloudy, High 76, Low 60
Tuesday – Mostly sunny, High 79, Low 61

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 74, Low 62
Tuesday – Partly cloudy, High 78, Low 60

FIO: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy throughout the day. High 81, Low 65
Tuesday – Partly cloudy throughout the day. High 82, Low 64

I know the clouds in Minnesota have really stymied temperatures, much more than forecast for the last couple of days. I’m surprised there is as much optimism as there is for Benton Harbor, further down stream.